...ISAAC...

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...ISAAC...

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:02 am



Isaac has been having some issues overnight and early this morning from a couple of issues. with one being an attempt to undergo a center re-location to the North, more specifically,about 60 miles.



At around 12:30 to 1:00 this morning, after watching it on radar, it looks like the center relocation has taken place...At the time, it was obvious based on the reconnaissance reports, the the system was decoupled with the LLC well to the S out the developing MLC. If this trend continues, where the system become stacked once again, it will move markedly further NW of the forecast track. With this relocation , based on the distance from the coastline and the forward speed, it would put it onshore Wednesday after 1 pm. This relocation definitely cut landfall time short a bit.

Another thing that has severely hampered faster development of Isaac is the ULL In the Western Gulf is taking slightly longer to get out of the way, so it imparts south to southeasterly shear on Isaac for another 12 hours, give or take. After this, there will be an opportunity for some decent development but time will not be on Isaac's side. Even with these hindrances, Isaac was trying to form a eyewall structure on radar.



The National Hurricane Center now only has making Landfall as a Cat ! storm which is wonderful news for the residents of the Gulf Coast States. On thing to remember, this storm has the potential of getting much stronger but the question is will he have time. Intensity forecast are the NHC's weak point and scientist really have no clue to accurately forecast intensity at this time.





Hazards affecting land

Rainfall: Isaac is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over central and southern Florida where isolated maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches are possible. Total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in southeastern Louisiana, southern Alabama, Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle.

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Florida Keys, and should spread northward along the Florida west coast in the tropical storm warning area today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area by late Monday, with hurricane conditions expected on Tuesday.

Storm surge: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama - 6 to 12 ft
South-central Louisiana - 3 to 6 ft
Florida Panhandle - 3 to 6 ft
Florida West Coast including Apalachee Bay - 1 to 3 ft
Southeast Florida coast and the Florida Keys - 1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida through Monday.

Surf: Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect the central and northwestern Bahamas, central Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.



Last edited by emcf30 on Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:11 pm; edited 12 times in total
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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:42 am

From the G-IV research plane

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

@HRD_AOML_NOAA

#NOAA42 just passed through the center of #Isaac. South side has some small rainbands wrapping around center, but know eyewall forming. (39 min ago)

#NOAA42 radar is showing few rainbands beyond 50 nm southeast of #Isaac center. All the action is still north of center. (14 min ago)

#NOAA42 radar is painting southwest FL near Naples and Ft. Meyers as we track to a point 105 nm east of #Isaac center. Hint of eye forming. (2 ago)

#NOAA42 is heading into forming eye of #Isaac. Radar shows rainband has rotated to N of center and merging with major band NW of center.
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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:47 am

Models indicating nothing for Florida and only one for Alabama now. The other hundred plus are in Mississippi, Louisiana, or Texas.





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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:26 am

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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by scouter534 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:13 am

Thanks for the update E.
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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by emcf30 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:03 am

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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by emcf30 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:18 am

UPDATES IN CHAT
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Re: ...ISAAC...

Post by sangria on Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:45 am

Thanks for posting an update this morning....
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Re: ...ISAAC...

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