The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

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The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by emcf30 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:09 pm

The first big cold snap of autumn is moving into the U.S.`s northern tier and will gradually overspread much of the northern and eastern U.S. through the upcoming weekend. Early-season mountain snow and well below-average temperatures will be this weather maker`s calling card.

A large area of arctic high pressure building southward out of Canada will drive this winter preview. The first salvo will be fired today as a potent cold front races out of the northern Rockies and into the Dakotas. While lower elevations will only endure a cold rain, mountain locations could see several inches of snow as highs only reach the mid-30s on Wednesday.

This cold snap will also bring a weather phenomenon called a Blue Norther. This refers to a swift-moving cold frontal passage in the southern Great Plains, marked by a dark, blue-black sky with strong wintery winds from the northwest or north and temperatures that may drop 20°F to 30°F in a few minutes. This term is most commonly associated with Texas. Various other names for the same phenomenon exist over the central and southern Plains. There are also various theories as to the exact origin of the term. In general it is associated with a rapidly moving cold front (usually in the Autumn) that causes temperatures to drop quickly and that often brings with it precipitation and unsettled weather, followed by a period of blue skies and cold temperatures.

On November 11, 1911, the central U.S. experienced one of the most dramatic cold waves to affect the United States. During the early morning hours a deep Midwestern storm system, along with an associated arctic cold front, separated unseasonably warm and humid air from arctic cold. Temperatures ranged from the upper 60s and lower 70s over Missouri to the single digits in central Nebraska.

As the day wore on, record warmth was felt across much of Missouri and Oklahoma. In Kansas City, the temperature rose to a record high of 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies became overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon, it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero.

In Springfield, the effects of the front were even more dramatic. Afternoon temperatures had reached record high levels by 2:00 to 3:00 pm when the mercury reached 80 degrees. South winds increased to a sustained 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. The wind shifted to the northwest at 3:45 pm dropping the temperature to 40 degrees by 4:00 pm. The temperature continued to plummet to 20 degrees by 7 pm. Finally by midnight, a record low of 13 degrees was established. The temperature fell to 9 degrees above zero during the early morning hours on November 12th. November 11, 1911 marks the only day in the Springfield, Missouri climate record where a record high and low temperature exist on the same day.



OK, back to the current situation. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted through this evening along the northern Montana Rockies. Accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected while the higher elevations could easily see 5 to 10 inches.
As the cold front lurches eastward, it will sweep wintry weather into the Upper Midwest, bringing the first accumulating snow to parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota.



A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for western North Dakota, where a rain-and-snow mix will become all snow after midnight tonight. As much as 3 inches of snow could blanket the prairie. A bit to the east, even heavier snow is likely to fall across the Red River Valley and Northwest Angle. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued, as 4 to 7 inches of snow could fall in Grand Forks, N.D., and International Falls and Roseau, Minn. Duluth, Minn., could even see a dusting of snow.

Beyond the snow threat, the focus will turn to plummeting temperatures as this broad area of high pressure sweeps deep into the Plains and toward the East Coast for the weekend. On Thursday, high temperatures will only creep into the 40s and low 50s for much of the northern and central Plains, while the northern Rockies may not climb out of the 30s. These high temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average in many spots.

At night, mainly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop back into the 30s for much of the Plains. These temperatures can do damage to outdoor plants, so it`s best to either bring them indoors or cover them with a blanket to avoid exposure to the cold. Also, don`t forget to bring pets into the house at night.

By Friday and Saturday, the cold front separating mild air to the east from the chilly Arctic blast will march into the southern Plains and the Ohio Valley. These places will be chilled by high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 50s, whereas the average high temperature should be in the 60s and 70s.



Grand Forks. ( Would LOVE to be there )



Rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast late tonight into early Thursday morning. Snow should become heavy at times for the Thursday morning commute in eastern North Dakota, and north winds will increase and gust to 40 mph or even higher at times. This will produce blizzard conditions at times when strong winds combine with heavy falling snow. Snow accumulations from 8 to 12 inches are expected through Thursday night in northwest Minnesota near Roseau. Expect 6 to 10 inches of snow in the northern Red River Valley and lighter amounts to the south before snow tapers off Thursday night. This early season snow storm will produce hazardous travel for the Thursday morning commute. Stay tuned to the latest statements on this dangerous early season snow storm.

Great NWS link, you can view live webcams on bottom of page.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=87819&source=0



On another note, Accuweather came out with another long term Winter Forecast which states;

Big snow events may return to a portion of the I-95 corridor of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic as well as the central and southern Appalachians this winter, while wet weather is predicted for the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Parts of the Midwest could fall short of normal snowfall again this year with the main storm track to the south.

Farther west, dry conditions are forecast to persist in the Northwest, leading to growing drought concerns.

Above-Normal Snow for Northeast, Appalachians
Above-normal snowfall is predicted for the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and central and southern Appalachians, spanning western Massachusetts to northern portions of Georgia and Alabama, this winter.

"I-95 this year in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic will have more snow than they did last year. However, as far as above-normal snowfall goes, from New York City on south and west has a better shot with more mixed rain and snow systems in New England," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Charlotte are among other cities that may receive more snow than usual.

A couple of larger storms could unleash the above-normal snowfall in the major cities, as the winter setup should allow big storms to form off the East Coast. The best chance for the big snowstorms will arrive during the middle to latter part of the season, including January and February.
Temperatures may start out slightly above to near normal, but as the season progresses and some snow accumulates, it will turn colder than normal during February.

While the coldest air is expected to bypass New England, bringing more mixed rain and snow events, Boston and Portland may get near-normal snow amounts this winter. Back to Top

Wet, Severe Threat for Gulf Coast, Southeast
With a frequent storm track anticipated across the South, it will be a wet winter for portions of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.

"Above-normal precipitation, rainfall, for the South, you got to watch out in South Texas, places like San Antonio and Brownsville that could get into the act once in a while. But I'm more concerned as you get farther east along the north-central Gulf Coast states. Tallahassee, maybe Atlanta, getting into that mix as well," Pastelok explained.

Rain may hold temperatures down for the season with departures of 1-2 degrees below normal. Besides rainy weather and cooler air, the threat for episodes of severe storms will also exist. "Severe weather is going to be a problem again this winter season. Last year, it was the second half of the winter season and more widespread. I think this year it's going to be early on, late November and December, and more confined to the north-central Gulf Coast states, northern Florida and parts of the Southeast," Pastelok added.

Potent storms formed by the clashing of cooler air to the north and milder air farther south will act as the trigger for the severe weather, which could produce tornadoes, high winds and flash flooding.
While it will remain fairly mild for the most part in central and southern portions of Florida, cold air may drill into the citrus crop areas at times behind big storms.
"There will be threats of frost with temperatures in the 30s in the citrus growing areas this year; however, the odds of a damaging freeze are much lower," AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler said. "The window for frost is usually from late December through early February." A strong freeze that can damage citrus would require temperatures to drop to 28 degrees or lower for more than two hours. Back to Top
Below-Normal Snow for Midwest; Normal Lake-Effect Snow for Great Lakes
Following a dry and mild winter last year, portions of the Midwest is forecast to receive below-normal snowfall this winter.
"Across the Upper Midwest, cities like Chicago, Minneapolis, I think, are going to miss out on the big systems down to the south as far as snowfall goes. I think they are going to have to rely on more clipper systems coming down out of the north and west," Pastelok said.
Omaha, Green Bay and St. Louis are other cities that may get less snow than normal.
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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by sangria on Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:35 am

Thanks for the nice, new blog e !! The Tampa Bay/Ruskin NWS posted a nice little article about West Central Florida, and the stats on when we start to cool off, in this area.......

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/TopNews/PDF/WhenCool12.pdf


OH OH !!! Will TWC give this coming "weather event" a name, to kick start their new Gimmick?????
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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:01 am

Thanks E. Having spent some time in the midwest I can attest to those large temperature plummets.
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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:35 pm









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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by emcf30 on Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:44 pm

Interesting possibility. I would not discount this theory of something getting wound up.

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by sangria on Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:30 am

A bit of wintery bluster, this morning........

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by emcf30 on Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:56 am

The OCTOBER CHILL continues.

The cold blast of air is continuing to move across the Central U.S. on the heels of a strong Canadian cold front. Along with the cold, the first significant snowfall of the season is falling in parts of the Plains and Rockies. This air mass has its sights set on the Eastern U.S. this weekend. woohoo

Temperatures are 15 to 25 degrees below average from the northern and central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Heavy Snow is falling parts in the Rockies and central Plains. Some areas of Nebraska has been blanketed with a foot of new snow while Cities and towns in South Dakota has received over 4 inches already this morning.

Why oh why is this happening one might ask.

Well, there is this upper-level low pin-willing southeast into Wyoming and western Nebraska. This will provide the lift and instability to squeeze out snow in the cold air that has filtered into the Northern Tier and Plains. Several inches will fall all along the Interstate 80 regions with the highest amounts in Wyoming`s Laramie Range.



This is the end result.














The first freeze is more than likely to occur in Texas tonight as the cold air mass continues heading South and East. Another thing to consider is the impact on the Races in DEGA.



Highs will be nearly 20 degrees colder during the day on Sunday in comparison to Friday. This could affect the racing at one of NASCAR's most unpredictable tracks. I think the cars will be producing more horse power and running faster. Temperatures were in the mid-80s Friday afternoon for practice but a cold front will move through the early this morning. Highs will only make it in the upper 70s today and the low 60's on race day. For those remaining at the track on Sunday night temps will drop to the low 40's, with some upper 30's possible in the natural colder areas and low pockets in the area.

For us here in the DEEP SOUTH, with the exception of Aug cooling off slightly, what cold front. temps will continue to be near 90 with lows in the 70's. Hopefully the humidity will die off and make it more comfortable.

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by sangria on Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:50 am

Thanks for the update e......local Tampa Bay NWS office long-term discussion, for the week....

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
EACH DAY...

So yeah.....What cold front??????
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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by emcf30 on Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:07 am

The Autumn Chill expands to the East Coast

After the Southward plunge into Texas yesterday dropping temperatures below freezing and producing snow light snow in many areas, now it the Mid Atlantic states turn.



The low pressures system and the attached cold front will bring a a round of chilly rain from Washington, D.C. to New York and Boston. After temps that were in the 80's yesterday, highs will struggle to get out of the 40's in some areas with the major cites, the highs will hover around the low to mid-50s as a cold rain and falls throughout the region.

Farther west across the interior, the higher elevations will see their first snow of the season. It will primarily affect locales at 2,500 feet or higher. No accumulation is expected at this time with exception of the grassy areas, which is good news for travelers.



Here are some interesting Temperature / Weather changes over the past couple of days.

This morning: Sioux City, Iowa: 16° (old record 23º in 2000; coldest on record so early in season)
Denver had two straight days with highs in the low 80s followed by a coating of snow throughout the city on Friday.
Boulder, Colo., the town of Sedgwick, Colo. had a daytime high of 90° Wednesday followed by a freeze the Thursday morning
Grand Forks picked up its first snow of the season (2-3") Thursday, just two days after a highs in the 80's
Billings, Mont. went from a high of 82° Tuesday to just over 2" of snow the following day, their first snow of the season.



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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by sangria on Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:26 am

Current radar in TX panhandle...

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by emcf30 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:57 am

This would be a nice snow storm if it were to happen.

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:29 pm

Slowly but surely cooling off here. I would think san and E should start seeing cooler temps within the next 2 weeks and a little longer than that for cocoa bean.

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by scouter534 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 8:54 am

mad Where is my snow?

LOL. Do strutting roosters get snow?
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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

Post by sangria on Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:32 pm

Good video analysis from www.28storms.com

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Re: The Big October Chill. Winter is coming.

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