Next Trouble Maker

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Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:05 pm

And the saga continues across the U.S. of A. The next system with it's sights set on the CONUS is in the making. This time, the immediate Gulf Coast States WILL be threatened. Here is the set up.

Lets look at the current data.

We have to look out West once again for the set up. Currently, a strong upper level disturbance is moving onshore from the pacific.



By tomorrow, the ULL will be somewhere in this area. This ULL will move to the SE.



On Monday, a subtropical jet will set up and a surface Low could develop anywhere from the Northern GOM to Georgia. Just a thought even though none of the major models really consistently show this, the signs kinda lean towards it. I probably will be wrong. But, if it happened, this will feed the warm moist flow into a are that the sub-tropical jet will be creating havoc as far as severe weather goes in the deep South.



You can see the two (2) pieces of energy on the NAM simulated radar.



You can see the flow that is setting up for the ULL to travel



So with this Split Flow, Trouble cometh


...DISCUSSION...
MONDAY /DAY 4/...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY MORNING TO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS 12Z TUESDAY. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE MID MS
AND OH VALLEYS...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST FROM SRN
GA TO COASTAL CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE SERN STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO
GULF COASTAL REGION.

CONCERN IS HOW FAR INLAND WARM SECTOR CAN ADVANCE GIVEN THE COOL SFC
STABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN NORTH OF WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SMALL WARM SECTOR
TO DEVELOP INLAND...AS FAR NORTH AS SRN GA. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT
WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ SUPPORTING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY SFC BASED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ALSO...OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LINEAR MODES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND.

BEYOND DAY 4...MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF AND LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL INLAND.



...DISCUSSION...
WITHIN PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING/REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.








With that said, this system has a equal chance of busting. We shall see.

This Storm has the potential to play a major role in the development of a huge southward dip in the jet stream in the Eastern US. As we seen all year, a series of storms changes patterns. This is no exception. IMO

Such a southward dip could make for an extended period of unseasonably cold conditions in the storm's wake from the Northeast all the way down to us in Florida and along the Gulf Coast to Gomey. In fact, check this out.




Mow, most of the time I think the CFS is out to lunch, But this time the models and teleconnections are also agreeing, which they didn't do before. So far this year the AO and NAO havent' timed or synched up yet. This time will most likely will. They both are synching up. This is not long range stuff, it is happening in a couple of days. It will begin mid week with the next big upper low closing off in the Lakes. This will be the deep trough in the heart land and Eastern US that opens up the door to Canada and ushers in sustained cold, unlike no pattern seen this Winter. Now it's late Winter, so this won't be Severe Cold, but plenty cold aloft. And the GFS just in keeps such a strong Greenland block and holds this trough in place with several systems rotating though the Deep Eastern Trough, with a hint at retrograding flow.

This is about how you want to see the GFS in this time range....IE, cold and dry. There is probably going to be a couple of strong systems that round the bend of the trough and could tap the Gulf, turning into a Major Winter Storm in the Southeast, MidAtlantic or Northeast (or all 3).The CFS has had a hard time this winter but methinks is was because all the mess in the Pacific early on in the season.

I got to play this again. I have seen it for the past couple of days on various forums. LMFAO



What is bringing this video up once again is the MJO was forecast to be in a very favorable position to bring winter weather to the Southeast a week or so ago. And looked what happened, zilch!!!! Hot air. That why you have look at the other factors that really make a difference in the Winter that we discussed a couple months ago.

With all that said, March is going to ROAR in like a Lion. Seems like a late Winter for the South is trying to take shape..









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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:57 pm

LMAO e.........I love this new blog post!!!!

I posted a discussion, ( in chat) from the Ruskin (Tampa Bay) NWS, and Aug, piped in on the "possible deep trough" portion of it........was a nice "synopsis" (first section)

Will be good, to watch what happens, and hope we see some cool temps, from it......gotta say, I am NOT loving the low temps in the 60's this coming few days........

It was warm enough, that the AC was almost needed.....



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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:19 pm

oh....lol....LMAO... DP ( Dennis Phillips of ABC Action News...and btw, I really like him) posted this on facebook....GFS.......his comments...


Ok, I HAD to do it. This is the GFS for NEXT Sunday. The Euro is also showing a freeze. So, do you know what this white circle is? That's right. Snow cover. NO...I don't think it happens, but it's fun to talk about.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:19 pm

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by Swiss Miss on Sat Feb 23, 2013 7:30 am

Damn E, you need a hobby. LOL
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:04 am

Nice blog E. I'm not liking the set up for next weekend. Strong low pressure developing in the gulf blasting the FL peninsula with a squall line???
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:12 am

Looks like my bro is in for another 6-12" snowfall. Latest 1-3 day QPF shows a 1.8" liquid equivalent in central KS. 18" of snow there? Is that the "wallop zone"?
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:18 am

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday evening through late
Monday night...

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a Winter Storm
Watch... which is in effect from Sunday evening through late
Monday night.

* Timing... snowfall will begin Sunday evening and persist until
Monday night. The period of the heaviest snow will be very early
Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

* Snow accumulations... the heaviest accumulations of 6 to 12
inches are possible mainly north and west of the Kansas Turnpike
through central and south central Kansas. 3 to 6 inches are
possible south of the Turnpike.

* Winds... northerly winds will be strong through the event with
sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts to 30 mph or higher.

* Impacts... the strong winds combined with moderate to heavy snow
will cause roads to be snowpacked with blowing and drifting snow
and will reduce visibilities. At times visibilities could be
reduced to a quarter mile. This will cause travel to be
dangerous... and is discouraged.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:21 am

sangria wrote:oh....lol....LMAO... DP ( Dennis Phillips of ABC Action News...and btw, I really like him) posted this on facebook....GFS.......his comments...


Ok, I HAD to do it. This is the GFS for NEXT Sunday. The Euro is also showing a freeze. So, do you know what this white circle is? That's right. Snow cover. NO...I don't think it happens, but it's fun to talk about.


It is fun to watch. The model madness continues this morning.



Look where that freeze line is. LOL

Also, still showing some GOM effect snow into play.



A spot over an inch. WTF. lmao
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:35 am

Bulls eye in central, MO.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:39 am

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:45 am

20 plus degrees colder than normal in the SE

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:02 am

From WxEastern. I agree!

WXeastern
Ok we are coming up on the most impressive pattern of the winter so far. All the key elements are there for a major to historic east coast snowstorm around the first of March with less significant snows in the east starting Feb 27. This is the type of pattern that breeds powerhouse winter storms folks!

Please dont ask about your area because specifics are still unclear right now. We have NAO blocking a tall PNA ridge and a split flow pattern as highlighted in the graphic below. Somebody is going to get feet of snow from this pattern but no one knows who yet. Stay tuned!

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:48 am

LOL...I'm still stuck on the FL wishcast.....

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:12 pm

Seems like the SPC and NWS is now jumping on-board of a surface Low developing in the South.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER...AND CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF AS WELL AS SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS DEVELOP THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THAN NAM AND GFS. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE LOWER/MID
MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST FROM SRN
GA TO COASTAL CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER JET ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW

WILL ADVANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE SERN STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD INTO GULF COASTAL REGION.

...SRN PORTION OF GULF COASTAL STATES...

UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM SECTOR CAN
ADVANCE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF COOL SFC STABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH CP
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH OF WARM FRONT.
THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH WITH TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WOULD SUGGEST IT MAY BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO ADVECT A QUALITY WARM SECTOR FARTHER INLAND.
NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A WARM SECTOR WITH MID 60S
DEWPOINTS TO DEVELOP INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ EAST OF SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS REGION OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES.


AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NWD DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG CONVEYOR BELT
WITHIN THE NWD EXPANDING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS...HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IMPOSED BY AT LEAST MODEST MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WILL ONLY INCLUDE 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR
A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. IN WAKE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE CONVEYOR
BELT...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY SUPPORT
A NARROW BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 02/23/2013
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:16 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2013

Excerpt:

The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from the western Gulf of Mexico, through the FL Panhandle,
and east-northeastward off the GA coast. This was only slightly
south and east of its positions Friday afternoon. Bands of heavy
rain will continue to develop along this front, which will
eventually drift southeastward later this afternoon and tonight.
Until it clears our forecast area (on Sunday), the threat of heavy
rain will continue.

The large scale environment appears typical for flooding
situations. There was a moist subtropical jet stream extending
well into the tropical Pacific Ocean, and precip water values were
200% of climo values locally. Despite this, rain rates so far
today have not been as high as what we observed Friday. Still,
training could create flash flooding within our Flash Flood Watch
area. We are forecasting an additional 2 inches of rain for most
areas from now through Sunday morning. The trick is how quickly
that occurs, as that will help determine if there is flash
flooding or not.

If there are more breaks in the clouds today than currently
expected, there could be a slight increase in the severe storm
threat today, with marginally severe damaging winds and/or a
tornado possible. This would be in the warm sector, mainly
northwest FL and south central GA. The latest high-res NWP guidance
did not show very robust updrafts today, so at least according to
those solutions, the threat is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term forecast focuses on the 2nd storm system to affect
our region in this very wet pattern. This system promises to be
more energetic and pose a multi-faceted hazardous weather threat
complete with flooding and severe weather by Monday afternoon. The
flooding will likely be the primary concern given how much rain
has already fallen across the region and given the condition of
area rivers. However, the severe weather threat with this system
cannot be understated.

The Euro has been fairly consistent with the overall progression
of this system for several cycles though in the latest run is a
little further south than yesterday, however, this difference has
no meaningful impact on the heavy rain potential - though it would
lessen the overall severe weather threat. Will continue to keep
the official forecast close to the latest Euro solution.

The period begins with a warm frontal boundary across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. This boundary will lift northward moving ashore
early Monday morning as surface cyclogenesis begins across the
Western Gulf of Mexico as a potent upper trough digs into West
Texas.
How quickly the warm front advances inland will depend in
part on how far south the surface cyclone remains across the Gulf
Coastal States and how entrenched the rain cooled airmass is north
of the boundary across Middle Georgia. As was seen with the last
system, a cool wedge aided by widespread rainfall, limited the
inland advance of the surface warm front limiting overall
destabilization.
This will be the main limiting factor for severe
weather as the kinematic field Monday afternoon through Monday
night is more than sufficient for severe weather. The latest
guidance would seem to indicate the severe threat would be more
confined to North Florida and perhaps a little further inland into
Southern Alabama and Georgia. Should a decent warm sector be able
to penetrate further inland, there would be a good threat for
tornadoes and damaging winds in the afternoon transitioning to a
potent squall line event Monday evening into Monday night.

Flooding is going to be a significant concern. Lift with the warm
front is very impressive so initial rainfall on Sunday evening and
into Monday morning could easily exceed 2 to 3 inches across
western areas. As the event transitions to more of a convective
mode, an additional 2 to 3 inches averaged over a larger area
could be expected with isolated higher totals. This type of
rainfall event will lead to further flash flooding and only
increase the magnitude of flooding on area rivers.

&&
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:19 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
843 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2013

Excerpt:

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TREKS EASTWARD MONDAY...
LIKELY CLOSING OFF AT 500 MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE TX. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE...STRENGTHENING INTO THE LOW 990 MB

RANGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEEPENING
OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WHEN ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AT THIS POINT...WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
BECOME ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MLCAPES TO RISE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...
850 MB WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 45-55 KT BETWEEN 18-00Z WITH 0-1 KM
SRH AVERAGING 200-300 M2/S2 AS SFC WINDS STAY BACKED TO S-SE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE POSSIBLE (DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES). THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT WILL REACH AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
THE CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL. THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:33 pm

Sorry Neo, I don't see not red dots on this map. So much for Global Cooling



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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:52 pm

The crew of #NOAA49 G-IV bring Gonzo out of the hangar as light snow starts to fall to get ready for the next series of recon flights.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:33 pm

Not good for race fans

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:09 pm

Update on the system in the Great Plains.

Lets look at the Great Storm that took place in this same area in April 2011.



A late season snowstorm developed over the Northern Plains and into parts of the upper Midwest, bringing blizzard conditions and snow amounts on the order of 10 inches. The storm was associated with a vigorous shortwave. The surface analysis shows the storm system moved east out of the northern Rockies and emerged over the Central Plains as a 992 mb cyclone by 12 UTC on the 15th. Around the same time, a deep and negatively tilted upper trough axis was clearly evident in the 250-mb flow over the central U.S., with a jet streak over eastern New Mexico and northern Texas. A strong, closed low was observed at
500mb and levels below. At each level an inverted trough was present in the height and wind fields, which served as a local
maximum of vorticity. This inverted trough was reflected at the surface, extending from the center of the low northward into the Dakotas by 12 UTC 15 April. Upper-level warm air and vorticity advection, as well as surface convergence along this trough axis, was likely responsible for the axis of enhanced snowfall that was observed.



The vigorous shortwave continued moving into Arkansas and parts of the Deep South by April 15th. The situation was favorable for severe weather with strong mid and upper level winds, steep lapse rates and a southerly low level jet from the Gulf of Mexico, advecting 65 to 75 degree surface dewpoints into the Southern Plains and Deep South.

Now, lets move the clock to present day

I've looked at new data and I see nothing that changes my opinion. This is going to be a major storm that I believe will disrupt Kansas and west central Missouri for 60 to 72 hours from the time the snow begins in any given location.

The present conditions do bear some similarities to that event in that it was a deep upper level anomaly cutting off from the northern stream with a sufficiently moist warm sector to allow for surface based/near surface based DMC along the occlusion. The way the WCB wraps favorably ahead of the upper low tends to result in a much slower progression than the models sometime indicate....with a moisture feed (typically thunderstorms) feeding into the deform band. Very similar setup here.. The difference as far as the severe side goes is that we don't have 2000+ j/kg of warm sector cape. nor is the warm sector nearly as large/wide as that event, but it gives some indication of what we will be seeing as this event unfolds.

The potential definitely exists for someone under the pivot axis of the deformation zone to see epic snow totals in excess of 2 feet.

While the current satellite presentation looks like a bubbly mess, I can assure you that once the ULL gets stronger, and a Surface Low starts developing, things will look much different.

Notice currently the trough axis has 7 identifiable low pressure markers. This entire region has a lot of energy spread over great distances.



This is going to be impressive, and after saying that we just had the best leeside low with the last event, this is going to make that event look somewhat unimpressive in comparison. Portions of central KS into western MO are going to be slaughtered once the moisture feed really kicks in...with a line of moist convection likely feeding the deformation band near the PV anomaly/triple point.





GFS 00z storm total thru Tuesday -- 24''+ (10:1 ratio) south of Kansas City. Crippling snows. 988 mb w/gusty winds



NAM





Now, the local news is starting to talk about long range stuff ( Very Cold and snow possibility )


Eric Burris Eric Burris ‏@ericburris

Long range models are in, and you might be surprised what they have to say about Central Florida! At 11 that plus tomorrows rain chances...

Plenty of time to watch that one for sure, If it happens
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:33 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Floridians:dont be surprised, coldest air of winter season invades late week,with some snow into panhandle,if not further s #bybyspringbreak
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:45 am

weak line of precip, starting to sag south......it is yucky outside, also......



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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:01 am

Cool shot of a overhanging drift at a motel in Kansas

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:15 am

The beginnings of a Blizzard



Blizzard Warnings being posted for areas of Colorado,Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. More to come.



Severe side

Today



A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES AWAY FROM THE NRN GULF
COAST DURING THE MORNING AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG SWLY MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE NRN GULF COAST STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE WESTWARD PORTION OF A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO N-CNTRL TX SEWD ALONG THE
LA COAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD FROM ERN NM INTO N-CNTRL TX
BY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A CORRESPONDING UPTICK
IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL PRIMARILY FAVOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND NRN GULF COAST REGION MAINLY AFTER DARK.

...CNTRL TX INTO SWRN OK...
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER
00Z/25 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWWD INTO WRN N-CNTRL TX AND
SWRN OK. MODELS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INITIALLY IN SWRN OK/WRN N-CNTRL TX AND BUILDING SWD
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PACIFIC FRONT
SURGES EWD ACROSS W TX. A COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED
BY TEMPS -18 TO -20 DEG C AT H5 WITH INCREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...WILL YIELD MUCAPE RANGING FROM 250 J/KG NORTH AND UP TO
1500 J/KG OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ACT
TO ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS/ AND
SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS THAT CAN ACQUIRE MID LEVEL ROTATION. FARTHER S OVER CNTRL
PORTIONS OF TX...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 50S MAY AID IN
LENDING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 300-500 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH...WHICH
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A CONDITIONAL...LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO
AS WELL.

Tomorrow



VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW AMPLIFYING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...REACHING THE
LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEY REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC
LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH SECONDARY WEAKER
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT.

FRONT TRAILING FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH A PORTION
OF THE SERN STATES...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IN SRN MO THROUGH
MIDDLE TN AND AL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WARM WILL LIFT NWD
INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

...SERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SRN PORTION OF REMAINING GULF
COAST STATES...

SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND WARM SECTOR CAN
ADVANCE DUE TO CP SFC RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND WWD THROUGH A PORTION
OF THE SERN STATES...AND LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH OF WARM
FRONT EARLY IN PERIOD. WARM SECTOR WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ.


MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM ERN TX INTO A PORTION OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE MARGINAL WITH
EWD EXTENT INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION WHERE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA AS WELL AS
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX. THE WARM ADVECTION
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES DURING THE
DAY. OTHER STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG COLD FRONT AND EVOLVING WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN THE NWD EXPANDING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL INITIALLY BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN
NWD EXPANDING WARM SECTOR OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL
STATES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES MORE THAN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:19 am

The model target still seems to be the KC metro.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:21 am

The GFS is still at it:

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:24 am

CLICK TO ANIMATE


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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:35 am

You can see on the surface maps the lows starting to consolidate

Yesterday



Today

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:51 am

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:52 am

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:53 am

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:04 am

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:50 am

History 101: Snow in Florida

It is rare for snow to fall in Florida, but it does happen. The reason that snow so rarely occurs in this U.S. state is that freezing temperatures in Florida are generally caused by the cold and dry winds of anticyclones. Frost is more common than snow, requiring temperatures of 45°F or less at 7 ft above sea level, a cloudless sky, and a relative humidity of 65% or more. In the general case, for snow to occur, the polar jet stream must move southward through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a stalled cold front across the southern portion of the state curving northeastward to combine freezing air into the frontal clouds. Most of the state is in a rare portion of the continental United States that receives a mean maximum monthly snowfall amount of zero, the only other such areas being southern Texas and parts of California.

Much of the known information on snow in Florida prior to 1900 is from weather climatology provided by the Jacksonville National Weather Service; for this reason, information for other locations is sparse. The earliest recorded instance of snow in Florida was a snowstorm that occurred in 1774; being unaccustomed to snow, some residents called it "extraordinary white rain." The first White Christmas in Jacksonville's history resulted from a snowfall that occurred on December 23, 1989. The most recent occurrence of snow in Florida took place on January 9, 2011, when sleet was reported in the counties of Escambia and Santa Rosa.

Pre-1900 (17 reported events)

Snowball fight on the steps of the Florida Capitol, February 1899



1774: A snowstorm extends across much of the state. The affected residents speak of it as an "extraordinary white rain."
1797: Land surveyor Andrew Ellicott reports 8 in (203 mm) snowdrifts near the source of the St. Marys River in Baker County.
January 11, 1800: Over 5 in (127 mm) of snow is on the ground along the St. Marys River to the north of Jacksonville, the highest recorded snowfall total in Jacksonville history.
January 13, 1852: Several hours of snow accumulates to a total of 0.5 in (13 mm) in Jacksonville.
February 28, 1855: Light snow flurries are reported in Jacksonville.
January 29, 1868: Light sleet falls throughout the night in northeastern Florida.
February 28, 1869: During the morning hours, some snow flurries are reported in Jacksonville.
January 10, 1873: At 7:25 a.m., a few snowflakes fall near Jacksonville.
February 4 & 5, 1875: Light sleet occurs between midnight and sunrise on both dates.
January 4, 1879: For an hour and a half, sleet falls in Jacksonville before turning to rain. The rainfall covers grounds and trees with ice early on January 5, breaking the limbs of many orange trees.
January 5, 1887: About 1 in (25 mm) of snow falls at Pensacola.
January 14, 1892: 0.4 in (10 mm) of snow is reported at Pensacola.
February 14, 1892: Pensacola reports 3 in (76 mm) of snow.
December 27, 1892: Light snow falls in various intervals in the northeastern portion of the state.
January 18, 1893: Falling sleet turns to snow before later changing to rain in Jacksonville.
February 14, 1895: Two short durations of light snow are reported in Jacksonville.
February 12 & 13, 1899: Rain changes to sleet and later turns to snow during the Great Blizzard of 1899, with the snow falling for about eight hours. With temperatures of about 10°F, the snow accumulates to 2 in near Jacksonville and 4 in at Lake Butler. In some locations, the snow remains on the ground for several days.

Now, lets look at modern times

20th century (20 reported events)

December 16, 1901: Light snow is reported in Jacksonville.
February 7, 1907: Downtown Jacksonville receives light snow flurries in the early afternoon.
November 27, 1912: An overnight period of snow covers the ground and trees with a 0.5 in layer in northern Florida.
January 22, 1935: Snow falls until the next morning, with Pensacola recording 1 in.

December 23, 1989, Jacksonville snowfall



February 2, 1951: Snowfall begins and ends the following day, accumulating to about 2 in. in Saint Augustine and Crescent City. December 14, 1952: Sleet and snow falls across the northern portion of the state, though there is very little accumulation.
December 14, 1953: Light sleet occurs in the morning in Marianna.
March 6, 1954: About 4 in. of snow accumulates at Milton Experimental Station, Santa Rosa County within a 24 hour period; the highest such total for Florida according to official modern records.
March 28, 1955: Snowfall accumulates to about 1 in. in Marianna along the Florida Panhandle.
February 13, 1958: An overnight rainfall changes to snowfall in Jacksonville and accumulates to about 1.5 in. Additionally, Tallahassee reports a record 2.8 in.
February 9, 1973: Snow falls over the northern portion of the state, including a total of 2 in. in Pensacola, with unofficial reports of up to 8 in.
January 17, 1977: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a Nor'easter over Atlantic Canada sends very cold temperatures southward into the state. Areas around Pensacola are the first to receive the snow. Then the rest of The Panhandle. Followed by record accumulations for The Nature Coast, the I-4 corridor (both Orlando and Tampa receive light accumulations of about 1-2" with a few isolated spots reportedly receiving 3-6"), and finally South Florida.



I remember this day very well. Broke my leg playing hard in the snow and slipped on a ice patch on the track at school.



By early on January 19, West Palm Beach reported snow for the first time on record, with snow flurries reaching as far south as Homestead. The snow causes little impact as it was of the dry variety, though the accompanying cold air results in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage (Orlando tied the 1899 record of over six consecutive nights well-below freezing). On January 20, The Miami Herald reports the event as the front page story, with a headline of a size usually reserved for the declaration of war.
Late January, 1977: Pensacola receives snowfall.
March 2, 1980: About 0.25 in. of snow covers car tops and patio furniture in Jacksonville.
March 1, 1986: 0.5 in. of snow accumulates overnight in Jacksonville before melting within 30 minutes due to the morning sun.
December 23, 1989: Light rain in Jacksonville turns to freezing rain as temperatures drop, and later changes to snow. The snow totals several inches in some locations, and results in the first White Christmas in the city's history.
December 24, 1989: Light flurries fall in the Tampa metro area early in the day and even during an early afternoon NFL game. 1 death is reported in Tampa, 2 in Miami and 1 in Jacksonville because of the extreme cold.
March 12, 1993: The 1993 Superstorm produces up to 4 in. of snow along the Florida Panhandle.
January 8, 1996: Snow flurries are reported from Crystal River to New Port Richey with no accumulation.
December 18, 1996: A plume of cold air causes snow to form in the northwestern portion of Escambia County.

21st century (12 reported events)

Satellite image for the January 24, 2003, snowfall



January 24, 2003: A plume of Arctic air produces widespread record low temperatures and light snow flurries along the eastern coastline. The snow is described as ocean effect snow, identical to lake effect snow in that it occurs due to very cold air passing over relatively warm water temperatures. The snow reaches as far south as Fort Pierce.
December 25, 2004: Locations along the Florida Panhandle receive a dusting of snow.
November 21, 2006: An eastward moving weather system produces a very light dusting and snowflakes in central Florida. It is the first snow in November in the state since 1912. February 3, 2007: Very light snow flurries are reported in the northeastern panhandle, lasting less than an hour.
January 3, 2008: Light snow flurries are reported near Daytona Beach.
January 8–9, 2010: Very light dusting of snow seen in the eastern Jacksonville area. Light snow also fell in parts of central Florida, which briefly accumulated in Ocala and other parts of Marion County. Sleet was widespread and snow was isolated across the Orlando area, Tampa and also in Melbourne. Isolated flurries were even reported as from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in record history and first time since 1977.
February 12, 2010: Portions of northwestern Florida experience snowfall totals of around 1 in.
February 14, 2010: 0.5 in. of snow fell across the northern halves of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Walton and Okaloosa Counties.
December 8, 2010: Snow mixed with rain is reported in western parts of the panhandle, north of Pensacola.
December 26, 2010: A mix of snow and sleet was reported in Jacksonville by NWS.
December 28, 2010: Light snow was reported at Tampa Executive at 1AM and 5AM local time, following a rare freezing fog event around midnight.
January 9, 2011: Sleet is reported in the Pensacola area, as well as other places in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. There was no accumulation.

So the set up for next Sunday does hold a chance for snow. But, as we know, looking at things and hanging your hat on it a week plus is not wise. We look for trends not exact specifics of an event. The trend, is for a chance of snow according to the models. Reality is, those same models show Surface temperatures in the Florida are in the 40s run after run, despite sub-freezing temperatures aloft. I don't think there's really much chance of snow with this temperature set up, to be honest. However, it is all about timing. As I said yesterday, I believe with the projected set-up, looking at the signals the atmosphere is showing, and the pattern it is very possible if the temps cooperate. Models consistency has been good for the past couple of days showing snow in Central Florida. Question is, can the surface temp drop low enough. I think the atmosphere will hold up to it's part but the surface I have questions about.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:25 pm

Cool Image. Ahead of the next system, visible satellite shows existing snow cover over KS/OK/MO as it outlines rivers/lakes..

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:26 pm

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:11 pm

Another weird one. The one earlier was in Texas with temps near 70 at the same time they were under a Blizzard Warning.



Now in Oklahoma, They has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning while under a Blizzard Warning.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:21 pm

Now that we are actually within the usable time-frame of the NAM/NAM hi-res (and it seemed to initialize better than previous runs), this simulated reflectivity depicts the epic thrashing and evisceration of NW OK once the deform band gets going.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:13 am

That's a ton of snow

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:17 am

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:23 am

Crazy, still very persistent. Still showing snow on Sunday even though the surface temps are to warm.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:40 pm



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SQLN NOW W OF TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA MAY INCREASE
AS THE FEATURE...POSSIBLY TIED TO A WEAK IMPULSE IN WSW FLOW
ALOFT...INTERACTS WITH SLOWLY-ADVANCING W-E WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS N FL. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR A
TORNADO OR TWO WHERE STRONGER ASSOCIATED UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH WARM
FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR IN NRN PART OF
LINE...AND AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO MAY FORM AHEAD OF IT AS
MODERATE SFC HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...CORFIDI
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:32 pm

This is for "educational" purposes only.......Aug is forecast, to be in the "hole" over the next 48 hours......(based on this futurecast)........ We'll compare his actual, to this, come Wed at 4pm...

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:34 pm

Sweet


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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:58 am

Brother's front yard. 10" so far and still falling.



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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:51 am

sangria wrote:This is for "educational" purposes only.......Aug is forecast, to be in the "hole" over the next 48 hours......(based on this futurecast)........ We'll compare his actual, to this, come Wed at 4pm...


2 day total of 1.16" Peeing Calvin futurecast.
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Tue Feb 26, 2013 1:16 pm

So much for their "futurecast"......lol
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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Tue Feb 26, 2013 1:16 pm

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by sangria on Tue Feb 26, 2013 1:18 pm

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

Post by emcf30 on Tue Feb 26, 2013 1:52 pm

Cars stranded on Hillside Road in Amarillo. Courtesy @pwarminski.

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Re: Next Trouble Maker

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