CLOSED Florida/Alabama Fall Season weather

well NWS is saying there's a lot of uncertainty with this coming cold front.

Good morning from rainy South Florida. It was coming down pretty good around 5-6 am. No clue how much rain we have received since I forgot to dump the rain gauge from last week. lol

LargoFL wrote:well NWS is saying there's a lot of uncertainty with this coming cold front.

That's what I saw to Largo. Flip a coin on the amount of rain. I heard it will slow down and might lose most of the rain. Time will tell.
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well NWS is saying there's a lot of uncertainty with this coming cold front.

That's what I saw to Largo. Flip a coin on the amount of rain. I heard it will slow down and might lose most of the rain. Time will tell.
John Z-hills

yeah john,i am hoping but don't expect much rain here,somehow Tampa area is always in the dry spot..if I get half an inch or more I'm a happy camper.

45,000 acres.150 structures burned so far in California...........................................................

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
155 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...BIG CHANGE TO COLDER WETTER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY/...

Rest of this afternoon...Fog dissipated late morning over all
land areas...but still lingers just off the ATLC Coast from JAX
northward to Brunswick GA. Overall expect mainly dry and partly
sunny, mild conds near 80 over inland areas with just a slight
chance of a sprinkle along the I-95 corridor south of JAX in the
developing Cu field. Otherwise there is a small chance that a weak
SE/sea breeze may develop along the coast and bring the fog bank
back onshore from JAX northward into coastal SE GA...likely only a
few miles but could produce lower vsbys towards sunset although
most Hi-res models just have it dissipating by this time. The
Dense Fog advisory remains in effect until 6pm for the nearshore
coastal waters from JAX northward to Brunswick to account for this
dense fog bank but still too early to determine if land-based fog
advisory will be needed for the ATLC Coast this evening.

Tonight...Overall other than ATLC Coast fog threat early this
evening expect Mostly Clear skies to develop briefly around sunset
before high clouds slowly increase towards midnight ahead of
approaching cold front. A light S-SW flow will develop which will
pull low-level moisture off the NE GOMex and may trigger the re-
development of far inland low clouds/stratus/fog around midnight
along the I-75 corridor after midnight which could slowly
translate E/NE through the night and have just labeled this
possibility as "Areas of Fog" in the forecast grids for now. Any
pre-cold frontal precipitation expected won`t be until morning
across inland SE GA generally N and W of Waycross GA. Mild
overnight lows around 60 degrees expected.

Wednesday...Pre-cold frontal precip will continue to slowly
progress E/SE across the region but slowly enough that will it
will just reach the coastal areas later in the day. Rainfall
amounts still remain generally light over far inland areas, less
than a quarter of an inch. Expect Cloudy skies to develop area-
wide ahead of the band of precip, with Max Temp forecast the most
tricky with temps steady in the 60s or slowly falling behind the
front across SE GA, meanwhile enough southerly flow and filtered
sunshine early in the day across NE FL will allow another day to
push back well into the 70s and near 80 across Marion/Flagler
county. Again timing of frontal pcpn to be key to temp forecast
for Wednesday afternoon.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Cold front moves south of our area Wednesday night thru Thursday
night...with areas of overrunning light rain expected north of the
front...with upper trough axis back over southern Plains.
Widespread cloudiness...occasional precipitation, and cold air
advection will reduce diurnal temp range Thursday to less than 10
degrees...with well below normal temps expected. High temps
Thursday upr 40s to lwr 50s se GA...lwr-mid 50s I-10 corridor...
upr 50s to lwr 60s nctrl FL. Rainfall amounts will generally be
light...generally less than one-half inch.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...

Friday will be a cold wet day with cold air advection...widespread
cloudiness and occasional rain. Latest consensus guidance shows
very high POP values...with low temps in upr 40s to lwr 50s..a
little higher nctrl FL and FL coast. High temps Friday well below
normal...upr 40s se GA and lwr 50s ne Fl....with mid-upr 50s nctrl
FL and FL coast. How cold it gets Friday night depends on cloud
cover With some partial clearing late interior se GA...likely to
see mid 30s...with upr 30s-lwr 40s elsewhere with more cloudiness.

Saturday...gradual clearing is anticipated from NW to SE during the
day. High temps will be well below normal despite any insolation...
mid 50s se GA...55-60 ne FL. With mostly clear skies and light
winds Saturday night...low temps likely to approach freezing
interior areas of se GA and Lake City westward along I-10
corridor or ne FL... with mid-upr 30s elsewhere.

Sunday-Monday...A reinforcing shot of cold air comes Sunday...with
cold air advection keeping high temps in the mid 50s se GA...
55-60 ne FL despite sunshine. Decreasing winds again Sunday night
will lead to low temps again near freezing interior se GA...35-40
interior ne FL...lwr 40s near coast. Some airmass modification
supporting somewhat warmer high temps Monday 60-65 most areas...
with mid-upr 60s Tuesday. Dry conditions expected Sun/Mon...with
rain chances increasing thereafter ahead of another big cold
front approaching Tue.

&&

hmmm over the weekend,might be some surprise snow flurries up in the panhandle etc....I saw some flurries HERE by me long time ago...sure is a strange sight to see..in Florida huh LOL

Good afternoon. Whew, end of year work rush is wearing me out mentally.

Looking forward to the prolonged stretch of cooler weather with at least 5 consecutive days in the 50's and 60's. Trees will be dropping leaves big time up here in a week.

Looks like a perfect weekend to cook a beef stew in the crockpot. Haven't had it since last winter. I'm a meat/potatos guy. I can smell it slow-cooking already!

well this early Wednesday morning,radar already showing some showers moving into  the NW corner of the Panhandle.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
309 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The current upper level pattern is dominated by a large
trough over eastern Canada and the upper mid west, while
weak ridging holds over southern Florida and the Bahamas.
This trough is propagating a large cold front through the
eastern seaboard and along the northern Gulf Coast, with IR
satellite and regional radar showing a band of clouds and
showers slowly pushing southeast through the Florida
Panhandle. Through today and into this evening, this front
and associated bands of showers will continue to slowly sag
south into the northern half of the forecast area. Moisture
ahead of this front is fairly limited, and so far the bands
of showers have remained rather light. Although a few
heavier showers may develop as the front pushes into the
area, rain totals are expected to remain fairly limited.
Temperatures will be a little cooler over the Nature Coast
tonight behind this front, with lows dropping into the 50s,
but farther south, lows will remain in the low to mid 60s,
with patchy fog possible once again tonight.

Good Wednesday Morning folks! and so it begins...the first cold front is starting to affect the panhandle and northern florida,good luck on any rain ok up there...Jenny-WD-Aug and our northern florida friends,please let us know how it is in Your area's today,hopefully no severe stuff but myself I'm paying attention to fri/sat......well have a great day folks!!

one last thing..my Prayers for the people fighting those Horrible fires in California..............................................

it looks like Jenny and WD's area's might be getting some light rains this afternoon.....................................................

and for US here in Florida,NAM model is saying..we might prepare for some surprise severe weather...............

well just after 2.30pm here,its windy and very warm and HUMID..just raked up a whole rubber barrel full of fallen leaves whew..dripping wet with sweat..but at least it looks neat outside now..in an hour it will be like I never did it lol..

Good afternoon from a VERY warm South Florida. I had 86 on the car thermometer and it feels every bit of it and then some.
Boy that front sure looks interesting!!

Thanks for the updates Largo.

Those fires in California are downright scary.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon from a VERY warm South Florida.  I had 86 on the car thermometer and it feels every bit of it and then some.  
Boy that front sure looks interesting!!  

Thanks for the updates Largo.

Those fires in California are downright scary.    

yes really scary..my daughter and family are north, outside the san francisco area and I'm very worried the fires could turn north,,but so far she's ok...whew

well This blog is almost full...maybe san could make a new one when this one fills up to the end huh

yes even GFS is saying things might get interesting Friday into Saturday here whew,guess we all need to stay alert,especially Friday night..hope no severe stuff.

Billsfan, kinda stay alert thru Saturday ok..NAM is pretty aggressive with this front pushing down thru there ok.

Thanks Largo I will. What's the timing of this front? My daughter is driving over to St Pete Saturday morning.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo I will. What's the timing of this front?  My daughter is driving over to St Pete Saturday morning.  

looks like here by me early sat morning then moves down to you thru the day,looks like a wet drive for her Billsfan

(clipped) NWS Tampa ....................Long Term (Friday Night through next Wednesday)...
A big weather pattern change, compared to the generally warm
conditions thus far this month, is in store for the majority
of the long term period. Although the responsible front
will be stuck across the area during Thursday and much of
the daylight hours of Friday, it movement will be rapidly
kick-started once again Friday night and well off to our
south and east by early Saturday morning.

Guidance in very good agreement showing a longwave trough in
place over the eastern CONUS Friday night...with a strong
shortwave impulse rounding its base over the northern Gulf
of Mexico. This energy will quickly approach the Florida
west coast Friday Night...passing overhead during Saturday.
It will be this atmospheric push that finally drives the
front out of our area...and allows the much cooler airmass
to reach all of the Florida peninsula.

Ahead of this approaching shortwave Friday
night...impressive Qvector convergence...within a broad
region of height falls will overspread the Florida west
coast. This upper support for ascent, will complement fairly
vigorous low level thermal frontogenetic circulations
migrating through the region. Feel confident given the
coincident upper and lower forcing to go with widespread
categorical rain chances 80-100% Friday night. Generally
speaking the nature of the wind fields will yield a mostly
anafront configuration, resulting in most of the shower
activity falling within the cooler post-frontal airmass, and
really decreasing the potential for any vigorous
thunderstorm activity. Given the forcing, a few rumbles of
thunder are possible, but any storms should not be surface
based.

The progressive nature of the system and associated dynamics
by early Saturday morning suggest a quick end to the
shower activity over much of the region during the first
half of the day. Areas north of I-4 may be completely done
by sunrise. Have gone with likely rain chances down toward
Fort Myers during the morning...given the good agreement in
lingering showers among the guidance members, but feel even
these far southern areas will see quick improvement for the
afternoon.

We will see our weather dry out Saturday, but the colder air
will be making its self known. High temperatures north of
the I-4 corridor should fail to get out of the 50s Saturday,
with only lower/mid 60s further south. First real "cold"
night of this pattern for the entire region will be Saturday
Night. Widespread temperatures in the 40s expected, with
30s for the Nature coast. A few spots in Levy county may
briefly approach freezing toward dawn Sunday, and this
potential will need to be watched closely. Have added patchy
frost to the forecast for parts of the Nature coast as well
(generally spots with temp 35 or less). Confidence is not
high in significant frost Saturday Night since surface winds
may not be light enough. However, any more protected area
that do attempt to decouple late at night will need to be
watched.

The coldest night of the event looks to be Sunday Night, as
high pressure attempts to ridge in from the west. The
potential for more widespread frost to the north of the I-4
corridor is higher Sunday night, along with potential for a
few hours of sub-freezing temps to the north of the
Brooksville area. This potential for a bonafide freeze will
need to be watched very closely with future forecast.

A slow moderating trend begins Monday into Tuesday, but may
be rather short-lived. The slight warm-up will mainly be
due to thermal ridging ahead of the next impulse shown by
both the GFS/ECMWF to dig into the southeast CONUS during
Tuesday. This feature looks to drive another cold front
through later Tuesday/Tuesday night...with a potential
reinforcing shot of cold air in its wake. Moisture will
generally be lacking with this next system, but the strength
of the passing shortwave shown by the long range global
guidance suggests adding low end shower chances for Tuesday.

&&

NWS Tampa (clipped)..........................EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A much colder airmass will arrive across the region for the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s
to the north of the I-4 corridor Saturday night, with a few spots
to the north of Brooksville approaching freezing toward dawn on
Sunday. Patchy frost is also possible across the Nature Coast
Saturday night. An even colder night is anticipated for Sunday
night into early Monday morning. Temperatures dropping into the
middle and upper 30s are expected to expand well south of the I-4
corridor over inland locations, with most of the Nature coast
dropping into the lower and middle 30s. Locations north of
Brooksville have a greater potential for a period of sub-freezing
temperatures. Lighter winds Sunday night will also promote areas
of frost development for locations with temperatures in the 30s.

Good Thursday Morning folks,a very interesting next 3-4 days coming ...I'm watching closely for any real freeze or frost warnings  coming out this weekend..i have a lot of tropicals etc I might have to cover up........well a 30% chance of a shower here by me today,tomorrow is probably MY best day for rain chances............well have a wonderful day everyone..

well its getting real foggy here in my area...drive safe this morning folks.

Cold front came in here yesterday evening around 7:30. It rained hard for all of about 2 minutes. The temp dropped quickly with the rainfall from 68 to 52 degrees. I had light rain overnight and early this morning and the temp was 47 degrees with a nice brisk northerly wind making it feel raw out this morning. Needless to say it's a nice day to stay inside. My rainfall for the front is currently at 0.20". Looks like our first real freeze of the year is behind the front this weekend.

waterdipper wrote:Cold front came in here yesterday evening around 7:30. It rained hard for all of about 2 minutes. The temp dropped quickly with the rainfall from 68 to 52 degrees. I had light rain overnight and early this morning and the temp was 47 degrees with a nice brisk northerly wind making it feel raw out this morning. Needless to say it's a nice day to stay inside. My rainfall for the front is currently at 0.20". Looks like our first real freeze of the year is behind the front this weekend.

hiya WD,yes this weekend there may well be some freeze or frost warnings.

well just after 11am and its solid overcast above me and air is very misty,must still be left over fog around..no rain yet by me.

Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!!......well still a little uncertainty on timing about when the cold front will pass thru central florida,but most models are saying a squall line will come thru overnight tonight and as always the threat of some possible high wind gusts and or very slight chance of a tornado etc.. then it sinks into south florida..old man winter has reared his head and laughed at GW lol...well anyway have a great day and enjoy the colder weekend ok!!

NWS Tampa...........Fri Dec 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A cold front shifting south through west central and southwest
Florida later today will bring increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Rapidly increasing atmospheric moisture will allow
for some areas to see prolonged periods of heavy rain with high
rain totals and localized flooding possible. Additionally, a few
of the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging winds or an isolated tornado.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected. The heavy rain will produce
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as well as the
ponding of water on roadways. Motorists should exercise caution.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
As a cold front shifts south through the area tonight, winds over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico are expected to increase to around 20
knots or greater during the early evening, producing advisory
level conditions that will continue overnight. These winds will
create hazardous boating conditions for small craft operators.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A much colder airmass will arrive across the region for the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s
to the north of the I-4 corridor Saturday night, with a few spots
to the north of Brooksville approaching freezing toward dawn on
Sunday. Patchy frost is also possible across the Nature Coast
Saturday night. An even colder night is anticipated for Sunday
night into early Monday morning. Temperatures dropping into the
middle and upper 30s are expected to expand well south of the I-4
corridor over inland locations, with most of the Nature coast
dropping into the lower and middle 30s. Locations north of
Brooksville have a greater potential for a period of sub-freezing
temperatures. Lighter winds Sunday night will also promote areas
of frost development for locations with temperatures in the 30s.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
An enhanced risk of stronger and more frequent rip currents is
expected to develop along the beaches of west-central and
southwest Florida on Saturday. Conditions for rip currents will
subside during Sunday.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Advisory level winds over 20 knots will continue through the day
on Saturday before slowly improving Saturday night and Sunday.
After a brief lull in the winds, another frontal passage on
Tuesday will bring winds back up to near advisory levels. These
winds will create hazardous boating conditions for small craft
operators.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

$$

Fleming

NWS Melbourne.....FRI DEC 8 2017

.NOW...through this morning...Some light...showery precipitation will
be possible. Developing southerly flow will push a weak
stationary boundary from the central peninsula northward during the
day. A stronger front will be preceded this evening and overnight by
a line of showers and isolated strong storms. Threats include
lightning...gusty winds...small hail...and torrential downpours
leading to minor...nuisance flooding in some spots. This line of
storms is expected to move across the I-4 corridor from mid to late
evening...then progress east and south through the remainder of the
night. Showers and storms will push off of the east coast and across
the near shore Atlantic waters later tonight.

Expect south to southwest winds today to increase to 10 to 15 mph. A
warm day is forecast in the upper 70s north of I-4 and lower to
middle 80s southward across east central Florida.

&&

folks perhaps we should stay alert for any severe storms thru this afternoon and all the way thru tonight..especially tonight huh

Good morning. I have a day off today which feels nice. May get a thunderstorm here but no severe threat. You folks in the bay area to Orlando need to keep a look out overnight. SPC has a slight risk on their day 1 outlook which is valid to early tomorrow morning.



Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2017

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Some severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a tornado
threat are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula Friday
night to daybreak on Saturday.

...Florida Peninsula...
An upper-level trough will move eastward today across the southern
Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight extending
southward into the western Gulf of Mexico. Southwest mid-level flow
will remain in place across much of the southeastern U.S. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into northern
Florida by this afternoon with a moist airmass located ahead of the
front across much of the Florida Peninsula. Lift will gradually
increase along the front this evening into the overnight period as a
50 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens. In response, thunderstorms
will develop along and just ahead of the front in north-central
Florida this evening with a line of storms moving southeastward into
the central Florida Peninsula during the overnight period. A few
isolated thunderstorms will also likely develop tonight ahead of the
front. A severe threat will be possible with this convection through
daybreak on Saturday.

By mid to late evening, the cold front should be positioned near
Gainesville in northern Florida with a moist airmass located
southward from the front into central Florida. Surface dewpoints are
forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F across much of
central Florida which will aid the development of moderate
instability. In addition, forecast soundings by 06Z/Saturday near
Tampa Bay show moderate to strong deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear
reaching the 40 to 50 kt range. This will likely support a severe
threat as a line of strong thunderstorms develops and moves
southeastward during the late evening and overnight period. Isolated
wind damage and possibly a tornado may occur along the stronger
parts of the line. A few storms are also expected to develop ahead
of the line across the warm sector where moderate shear and
instability will also be sufficient for severe storms. These storms
could develop supercell characteristics and be accompanied by a wind
damage and tornado threat. The severe threat should persist through
late in the period as the line of storms moves across the central
Florida Peninsula.

..Broyles/Elliott.. 12/08/2017

Had .52" of rain yesterday evening. 1-3" more in the forecast the next 24 hours then tomorrow night and Sunday night will be around 30 degrees. BRRRR. Once the rain clears out tomorrow morning I'll be wrapping the exposed pipes outdoors (water spigots and irrigation backflow) then will need to pull in a few potted plants.

Good morning all. TGIF. So far this front has been an over producer for rainfall in my area. With an additional 0.65" last night my total is up to .85" for the event, with more coming today and tonight as the system(s) finally clear the area. Temps here have been mighty chilly but pretty steady since our first rains Wed evening. The high yesterday topped out at 54, but the low over night only dropped to 48. That will change this weekend with clear skies and freezing conditions expected both Saturday and Sunday nights. Our community Christmas get together and boat parade is tomorrow evening so the weather should really help get everyone in the spirit. I just hope the winds and waves aren't too much that they cancel the boat parade.

Good Morning AUG...I don't know how many more posts we can make in this blog,but it being page 15 it might be pretty soon...San or someone needs to create a new blog for us huh

WD Good luck on the Christmas parade and things...hopefully this bad weather will be over by then,seems like we here in central and southern florida are in for it thru the overhinght..hope no tornado's.

NWS Miami.........Fri Dec 8 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
...MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Visibility: Patchy to areas of fog will continue across the interior
and west coast metro areas of South Florida early this morning.
The western areas of South Florida will also see some dense fog with
visibilities falling down to less than quarter of an mile. Therefore,
a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM EST this morning for the
western areas of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight especially
after midnight tonight, as the cold front approaches South Florida
from the north. A few storms could become strong after midnight with
gusty winds and lightning strikes being the primary hazards.

Winds: The strongest storms after midnight tonight will be capable of
producing wind gusts up to 50 mph.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 40s over most of South
Florida late this weekend into early next week, except for the areas
around Lake Okeechobee where they will fall down into the mid to
upper 30s. Low temperatures will slowly warm up through next week and
be in the 50s to 60s by end of next week.

AUG I guess i'd better wrap those outside faucets and pipes also......................
...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A much colder airmass will arrive across the region for the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s
to the north of the I-4 corridor Saturday night, with a few spots
to the north of Brooksville approaching freezing toward dawn on
Sunday. Patchy frost is also possible across the Nature Coast
Saturday night. An even colder night is anticipated for Sunday
night into early Monday morning. Temperatures dropping into the
middle and upper 30s are expected to expand well south of the I-4
corridor over inland locations, with most of the Nature coast
dropping into the lower and middle 30s. Locations north of
Brooksville have a greater potential for a period of sub-freezing
temperatures. Lighter winds Sunday night will also promote areas
of frost development for locations with temperatures in the 30s.

I like the colder temps coming... but here by my house I'm hoping my county being surrounded by water..this may prevent a serious freeze,i don't want to lose a lot of plants etc...way too many to cover etc

LargoFL wrote:Good Morning AUG...I don't know how many more posts we can make in this blog,but it being page 15 it might be pretty soon...San or someone needs to create a new blog for us huh

I don't think there's really a limit Largo like the 2K limit WU had for member blogs but I'll throw a new one together. Give me 20 minutes or so to work on something.

Ok folks, see if this works. Link to the blog I created: https://weatherchatroom.forumotion.com/t186-12-8-florida-alabama-blog-southern-snow-and-severe#11953

San..this blog should be closed??