April-May Florida weather and local events etc

JRnOldsmar wrote:I'm ready for the pattern change, Aug.  Hot, hot, and more hot!

I'll be up your way this weekend.  Maybe we can sync up.  I'm showing a high of 100 for Jax on Monday.  Yuk!

Hit me up by text JR. I am flying solo this weekend and would like to work something out.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
315 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.DISCUSSION (Today - Wednesday)...
Not much has changed since yesterday. Models continue to
show deep-layered ridging settling over the region and
dominating our weather for the next 7 days.

The big story will be the heat. If the lower to middle 90`s
haven`t been enough for you, we could be looking at middle
to upper 90`s for the Memorial Day weekend.

With strong high pressure still to our north, we probably
won`t see much of a sea breeze today and Friday. Perhaps a
late day sea breeze on Friday right along the coast.

As the ridge of high pressure sinks south over the state,
our enhanced easterly flow will relax and allow sea breezes
to develop and penetrate farther inland each day during the
long weekend. This will provide some relief from the heat at
the beaches, but it will still be very warm.

The month of May is typically a dry month, and the next 7
days will be no exception. While a stray shower could pop up
along sea breeze boundaries here and there, the overall rain
chances through the next 7 days will be 10 percent or less.

&&

Good early Thursday morning!!....well another Hot and DRY day ahead for all of us....enjoy have a wonderful day everyone!!

I am just guessing..but i seem to remember that the GFS models like to create bogus tropical systems more than 7-10 days out..but i do trust the GFS myself if it is saying a system will form 3 days out

Interesting..its our coastal sea breeze that keeps our temps around here a bit cooler than inland area's and it also cools Tampa down a tad..tampa's temps have never hit 100 degree's..whew..hope thats the same here by me lol

well I have things to do today..keep our blog running ok

the GFS is giving me good practice for the coming season huh lol

Well folks..a HOT and DRY 3-day holiday weekend, sure wish a cloudy day would come..well here is tomorrow friday and beyond gee....

Good afternoon. I was busy "chasing" tornado's yesterday. My family in Missouri had many close calls. Jefferson City was hit by at least an EF3.

Locally nothing to report.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  I was busy "chasing" tornado's yesterday.  My family in Missouri had many close calls.  Jefferson City was hit by at least an EF3.

Locally nothing to report.  

I hope your family made it thru it safely AUG..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Really the only thing to talk about for the next week weather-wise
will be the heat. Strong high pressure (594 DM) ridge centered
across southern Georgia won`t move a whole lot during the next week
so that will keep our area in a predominant easterly flow for much of
the period with high temperatures approaching or exceeding all- time
daily records. Through the holiday weekend, highs will top out in
the mid 90s with upper 90s expected across interior sections. It`s
not out of the question that some spots may reach 100. Temps will be
a bit cooler near the coast but still plenty hot. This forecast
doesn`t change as we get into next week as the ridge remains
persistent through the period. Drier air on the east side of the
aforementioned ridge will keep atmospheric moisture quite low with PW
values well below climatological norms. This will keep skies mostly
clear and rain chances almost non-existent for much of the upcoming
week. If you plan on being outside during the next week, be sure to
wear proper clothing, sunscreen and drink plenty of water.

&&

Good Friday Morning folks and a big Holiday weekend TGIF!!!!!!!!!!..wow its been really HOT and DRY here by me and im sure the Fire warnings will be coming soon if this pattern doesnt change...now I got a break yesterday late afternoon/evening..a low overcast came over us and a really Great sea breeze blew in..wow lowered the temps a lil and it was wonderful walking the dogs etc...well anyway..NWS is saying into next week our weather stays the same..so enjoy this Holiday weekend!!

As a nation, we observe Memorial Day this Monday, May 27. During this national day of remembrance, it's important to reflect and appreciate the purpose and meaning of the day. It represents a moment of awareness, honoring those who died in service to the United States of America, defending our nation, its values and its people.

Congress passed the Uniform Monday Holiday Act in 1971, establishing the last Monday in May as Memorial Day. The day is formally observed at Arlington National Cemetery with a ceremony in which a small American flag is placed on each of the approximately 400,000 graves. In 2000, Congress passed the National Moment of Remembrance, which is a voluntary, simple and unifying way to honor the ultimate sacrifice that military families and personnel have made for the freedoms we enjoy. The National Moment of Remembrance asks us, wherever we are at 3 p.m. local time on Memorial Day, to pause in an act of national unity and observance for one minute.

JRnOldsmar wrote:As a nation, we observe Memorial Day this Monday, May 27. During this national day of remembrance, it's important to reflect and appreciate the purpose and meaning of the day. It represents a moment of awareness, honoring those who died in service to the United States of America, defending our nation, its values and its people.  

Congress passed the Uniform Monday Holiday Act in 1971, establishing the last Monday in May as Memorial Day. The day is formally observed at Arlington National Cemetery with a ceremony in which a small American flag is placed on each of the approximately 400,000 graves. In 2000, Congress passed the National Moment of Remembrance, which is a voluntary, simple and unifying way to honor the ultimate sacrifice that military families and personnel have made for the freedoms we enjoy. The National Moment of Remembrance asks us, wherever we are at 3 p.m. local time on Memorial Day, to pause in an act of national unity and observance for one minute.

yes indeed..thanks for this JR

StAugustineFL wrote:https://www.kmov.com/news/raw-skyzoom-video-over-jefferson-city-tornado-damage/video_5b568800-ef63-5d19-a2aa-abd1f3c2dbd9.html

Wow, that footage is intense. Can't imagine being in one of those buildings.

Hope your family did ok.

Amen JR.

Family fared well. My brother had multiple confirmed on-the-ground tornado's within arms reach. Sirens were going off for 90 minutes as supercells slid by just to the north and south. He and kids were hunkered down below ground. Kids were scared to death and crying.

whew.........
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
308 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The heat remains the big story throughout the Memorial Day holiday
weekend and into next week. Strong high pressure (594 DM) ridge
centered across southern Georgia won`t move a whole lot during the
next week so that will keep our area in a predominant easterly flow
for much of the period with high temperatures approaching or
exceeding all-time daily records. Through the holiday weekend, highs
will top out in the mid 90s with upper 90s expected across interior
sections. It`s not out of the question that some spots may reach
100. Temps will be a bit cooler near the coast but still plenty hot.
Drier air aloft through the period will keep atmospheric moisture
quite low and because of this will remain mostly clear with rain
chances almost non-existent for much of the upcoming week. If you
plan on being outside during the next week, be sure to wear proper
clothing, sunscreen and drink plenty of water.

&&

Good Saturday Morning Folks!!!..well another HOT and DRY day ahead and for some..temp records may be broken they say wow,,going to be 95 by me they are hinting at...well enjoy and have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning. Decent wildfire on the north side of Jax has been ongoing for a couple of days but getting contained. With temps 95-100 for the next 7 days I suspect a few more may flare up. I-95 was closed for a spell.

Looking at the models it's possible the SE ridge may finally break down in early June. Fine by me. Going on two weeks here with no rain. Heck, hard to find a cloud these days, lol

well my internet security is warning me this site isnt safe and asking me to leave and delete the site from my puter..im sorry folks...good bye

Well, it appears that the heart and pulse of the group is gone, and the last we saw of Bills was "Going through a serious health issue now."
To others:  (StPete, JohnZ, San, PT, WD)  If anyone wants to connect more directly, please shoot me a PM here.
Don't forget to support your local businesses (neighbors), and avoid as many processed foods (medicines, plastics, etc) as possible.  Big (industry name here) will be the death of us all.  

Hi JR. I had no idea until Largo posted his last comment that this site is not secure. I guess I would have to ask the webmaster, whoever that may be if this can be easily remedied. If it takes a software install I would be glad to pitch in. I, too, a few years ago was diagnosed with a rare blood cancer that thankfully is being managed with oral chemo. I saw Billsfan post and she’s been in my thoughts. We all have something it seems like the older we get but you can’t stop living. It’s my motto anyway. Let’s do whatever it takes to get this site secured. Hurricane season is here and I miss Largo’s faithfulness to the site with updates. Thanks for the ear, and let’s get this done!

Sorry to see Largo go as he kept it going. I haven't noticed any security issues with the site so I will keep popping in from time to time.

Anyway, this has been one hot dry stretch we have been on. It is extremely dusty at my place and everything is turning brown. I have had under 3/4" for the entire month of May and it looks like the dry stretch lasting 22 days will continue into the weekend. Models are hinting at a chance of some AM showers next week, but I will believe it when I see it.

Good afternoon. Sorry to hear Largo move on. As to the security the site has always been "unsecure" on my browser but I trust my AV software.

Hope bills recovers.

Hot here, 95-100 for days now with not much relief in the short term. There were some thunderstorms in the area on Tuesday but they missed to the north, south, east, and west. It was nice hearing the thunder though.

WIth it being the last day of May here is my climatological report for the month here in Levy County: HOT AND DRY. We are now officially in D0 drought status according to the US Drought Monitor. It has been awhile since we have been in any kind of drought. Looks like the rainy season might try to kick off next week. However, I am concerned about any lightning that comes with the storms as wildfire is now a threat.

Here is my rainfall for the month and YTD:
January 5.71"
February 1.86"
March 1.22"
April 5.47"
May 0.83"
2019 YTD total 15.09"

waterdipper wrote:WIth it being the last day of May here is my climatological report for the month here in Levy County: HOT AND DRY. We are now officially in D0 drought status according to the US Drought Monitor. It has been awhile since we have been in any kind of drought. Looks like the rainy season might try to kick off next week. However, I am concerned about any lightning that comes with the storms as wildfire is now a threat.

Here is my rainfall for the month and YTD:
January    5.71"  
February  1.86"
March      1.22"
April        5.47"
May         0.83"
2019 YTD total   15.09"

WOW, Sorry to see Largo move on. I'm still around. I just got back from Pa. Wow had really bad storms up there. I did not see any tornados but did see the damage in Dover Pa.
I will get my totals up here on Monday Waterdipper but they are not as much as yours.
I'm not having any problems with this site either.
Have a great weekend and I hope Billsfan is doing ok.
John Z-hills

Wait, what?

Wish Largo was more specific about what the issue was

I'm not seeing security issues with the site.

Following a bunch of Hot and Dry, still hot and dry, with continued hot and dry. I just love 80 degree mornings! Hints of some rain chances mid-week.

Looks like Aug is at least close to that D0 line as well.

Youtube Link:  Hot

Good Monday AM. The humidity came up quite a bit this weekend and with it there was scattered rain all over the Big Bend and Nature Coast Friday-Sunday. Unfortunately I didn't see any. I am now up to 28 days without significant rainfall and it is drier than a popcorn fart as they say. Hopefully the rainy season will kick in sooner rather than later. I am not looking for the monsoon, just some rain to make the fire danger go down.

Good afternoon. Pretty much the same here as the rest of you all. I actually had 3 brief bursts of rain yesterday. It only amounted to .13" but it was nice to see. WPC 7 day paints roughly .5 - 1.5" over the entire state so the end seems right around the corner.

Morning to all,
I checked the monthly rain totals. For May 2.29 and for the year 10.03
Looks like the rain will slowly creep back into our area.
Have a great day to all.
John Z-hills

I finally had a brief shower yesterday AM, but it only knocked the dust down temporarily as it ended up being less than 0.10" at my place. Less than a mile away got 1.25". You got to love summer rains in Florida. Anyway, it looks like the rain chances will be fairly normal the next week or so, but then the models are hinting at some more dry air over the state from mid June towards July. The Drought monitor is now predicting drought to become entrenched in north FL during June and lasting into July. I am still concerned we will have an active late wildfire season, but so far things seem about normal.

I find it hard to believe central Florida is not in drought conditions.

Unfortunately for the panhandle all those downed trees from hurricane Michael will eventually cause some pretty serious fires

Looks like I pulled in a half inch of rain today. Hopefully this weekend will keep the rain coming for a couple of days. Brush fire north of me, in a nearby preserve. That's a normal location during fire season, but can be a bit unsettling stepping outside into the smoke. At least no ashes this time.

We had a local wildfire get started by an idiot burning their brush pile yesterday. Fortunately the humidity has come up since last week and the Forestry Dept was able to get on it quickly and contain it. The next seven days look quite wet thankfully so any short term fire worries should be alleviated. Models though are hinting at a return to dry conditions for the last 2 weeks of June.

This could be a drought buster if this verifies. And could be the start of the Monsoon season in the Nature Coast.

Quick update,
The last 3 day in the bucket I have gotten .09, .50 and .30
Looks like it could be very wet if your lucky enough to get some.
Have a great weekend!
John Z-hills

Good morning.  Looks like you all on the western side of the state have been faring well the past couple of days.  WD's general locale has really been cashing in but has WD's own backyard?  

Rains up here have generally been fizzling out once east of I-75.  .17" thus far with the pattern change but great chances for the next several days.  I'd like to receive at least 2" through the coming week. CPC has much of the nearby area now in moderate drought conditions.  We shall see what happens.

Morning All,
Well I got lucky this weekend over 4 inches in the bucket between Saturday and sunday.
Yesterdays storm was a good one 2.94 in the bucket just from that storm. Heard they had lots of wind over by the beaches from that storm. I was in the bowling ally so I couldn't see much but you could hear it.
Have a great day all!!!
John Z-hills

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Looks like you all on the western side of the state have been faring well the past couple of days.  WD's general locale has really been cashing in but has WD's own backyard?

Aug, I was concerned it was going to miss me this weekend. Saturday it rained a bit in the AM, but the rest of the day cleared out for the most part and I only had 0.40" in the bucket. However, the rains came in early Sunday morning and lasted most of the day. At one point I had to dump the rain gauge (5" max), and I ended up with 5.8" for the day. With as dry as it has been we aren't seeing any flooding issues, but this is pretty much eliminating the drought situation. The storms on Sunday were pretty strong as well with a lot of lightning and some 40 mph winds.
Rain has continued off and on this morning and should continue through the week with the SW flow pattern sticking around for awhile. Hopefully it will spread around so all can get in on the needed rainfall.

Looks like rains going to continue through Wednesday

For the weekend and today, 3.7", over 2" of that was today. Sunday was windy at the beach, John, I was there.

Nice total folks! That'll be a nice boost in the short term.

Since my last post it's rained the past 3 days totaling 1.6". No complaints there.

Looks like the northern third of the state dries out roughly Thursday- Saturday before moisture returns.

Lots of thunder but quick moving.
Hope Largo got his gutters cleared!

I just cleaned out my gutters this weekend, during the Sat morn rain event. Mostly just off/on light-med stuff. For the last 2 days, its just getting started where I'm at. Total of .1 for the 2 days. Work, 10 miles inland got blasted Mon and Tue. Less today, but still rained pretty good.