CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

While the Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September, October is a month not to be taken lightly.  Right on queue an area of disturbed weather dubbed 91L is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean.  Per the latest NHC Outlook the disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm over the weekend or early next week as it slowly drifts north/northwestward in the near term.  If/when the system develops it will be named MICHAEL.  

Current model track guidance for 91L as of 6Z:



Current intensity forecasts.  Most keep the system as a tropical storm but intensity forecasting is an imperfect science.  (Side note:  I think the CTCI (whatever that model is) had too much sugar in their cereal this morning))



Gulf of Mexico satellite showing 91L.  This loop will self-update.



Climatology favored areas for the month of October.



Have a great weekend all.  We'll know soon enough what happens with the system being roughly 120 hours out from "landfall".  POTENTIAL impacts will be felt earlier as tropical moisture overspreads the region from south to north.  If nothing else............

Thanks for the new blog Aug and graphics.....

Euro 0Z Ensembles




GFS 06Z Ensembles

Good morning all! Thanks for the new blog.

Pretty good agreement between the two.

Hey san and bills.

Time to get productive in a bit. BBL

sangria wrote:Thanks for the new blog Aug and graphics.....

Yes many thanks

i dont know if whatever it becomes slows down some or worse speeds up some..i think Tuesday im going to take in the things that could blow around outside and i already have the supplies now, i'll wait with the windows till i see its going to come in here or..cruise by real close,giving me high winds

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

just listened to a guy on WC and he said he thinks there's only an outside chance 91L could get to hurricane strength........ but a strong Tropical storm i think (me)...its a good chance huh

I do notice..the Euro model isnt making it a strong storm...........................

well 3-4-5 days out..its going to be a long wait to see exactly where he comes ashore..no sense in guessing.

the 12Z run of the GFS model has shifted a bit westward,stay alert gome

well the 12Z model runs Saturday have come back with storms with Lesser power, quite possibly only tropical storms BUT still 4-5 days and many more runs yet to view huh.

Levi update.

my guess is..anyone with family or friends up along the east coast should really watch this storm, the 12z run has it going right up the east coast, and if im reading it right..with TS force winds even up to New york wow

000
FXUS62 KTBW 070736
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)...
A strong U/L ridge will persist over the mid Atlantic coast
and will extend over the Florida peninsula today and Monday
with strong subsidence over the region and continued above
normal temperatures. A few showers may develop this
afternoon below a mid level subsidence inversion located just
above 70H.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the
northwest Caribbean today and lift north over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Deep layer moisture will begin to
advect north over portions of west central and southwest
Florida late Monday with increasing cloudiness and a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The clouds/shower
activity will hold max temps down a bit...but will remain
near to a few degrees above climatic normals.

.LONG TERM (Monday night-Saturday)...
Deep southerly flow will develop over the forecast area on
Tuesday as the area of low pressure (potential tropical
cyclone 14) moves north over the central/eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep tropical moisture will advect across the
forecast area with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected Tuesday through Wednesday.

The area of low pressure is expected to be picked up by the
westerlies and lift rapidly northeast to the mid Atlantic
coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Southwest flow off the
Gulf of Mexico and enhanced lift over the region will
continue threat of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will build over the
southeast U.S. in the wake of the area of low pressure
Thursday night and Friday with a sharp line of drier air
advecting over north central Florida. Scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
deep tropical moisture south of the boundary, with drier air
and little chance of rain north of the boundary.

&&

Good Early Sunday morning Folks!!..well the Florida panhandle folks should be preparing for a tropical system landfall sometime mid week..most models have it a hurricane at landfall,,folks prepare and wait this out up there..be safe....myself im keeping a very close watch on this storm for any sudden eastward turn towards Tampa bay..so far the models dont think that will happen but you never know huh..well monday morning's NWS discussions should be good reading, by then they should know better when and where it will hit...have a good day everyone!!

Morning all.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning all.

good morning Aug,say you and maybe WD had better keep a good eye in 14's track in case it decides to slide a lil more eastward..stay safe up there.

maybe the one good thing is..this storm will give us maybe some good rain as it passes by..i sure could use a good rain here by me.

I'm always keeping an eye on such things Largo. Doesn't look to have too much of an impact here at the moment but I'll keep abreast of the future adjustments by NHC. I stocked up a bit on supplies during Florence so am basically set if there are any surprises with track. Seems the storm will be somewhat smaller (not like a Matthew or Irma) and impacts won't be as far-reaching. We'll know soon enough!

Against my better judgement I peaked at the WU CAT 6 blog and see the general consensus is discussing a catastrophic cat 4 into the panhandle as if that's a certainty. Folks in the panhandle should be prepping for sure but let's allow the storm to evolve and see where things are 24 hours from now when it's in the southern GOM and begins to pick up speed.

StAugustineFL wrote:I'm always keeping an eye on such things Largo.    Doesn't look to have too much of an impact here at the moment but I'll keep abreast of the future adjustments by NHC.  I stocked up a bit on supplies during Florence so am basically set if there are any surprises with track.  Seems the storm will be somewhat smaller (not like a Matthew or Irma) and impacts won't be as far-reaching.  We'll know soon enough!

yeah by tomorrow they should have a better idea exactly where the track will go

StAugustineFL wrote:Against my better judgement I peaked at the WU CAT 6 blog and see the general consensus is discussing a catastrophic cat 4 into the panhandle as if that's a certainty.  Folks in the panhandle should be prepping for sure but let's allow the storm to evolve and see where things are 24 hours from now when it's in the southern GOM and begins to pick up speed.

yeah im not good with hurricane strengths..but on my models i saw 965 whatever that is..is that its strength??

ah now it reads 964 i dont know what that means..........................................................

my local nws met is saying those of us close to the gulf will be getting some good rain etc as this storm approaches-and passes us..i hope he's right and..hope no serious winds or tornado's

yeah Aug im waiting to see how the storm is tomorrow afternoon,after that folks up there should be finishing preparations and hunkering down..wait this out and i hope it doesnt get to a cat-4 upon landfall whew, that would be bad if it does get to a cat 4 huh

this Navy model was the first to see this coming..hope these wind projections are wrong for my area..

965 MB would be roughly 110 mph which is borderline cat 3. As of 8 AM today the pressure was 1004 MB.

Here's a good table to look at showing the relationship between pressure, winds, and what it would be on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

StAugustineFL wrote:965 MB would be roughly 110 mph which is borderline cat 3.  As of 8 AM today the pressure was 1004 MB.

Here's a good table to look at showing the relationship between pressure, winds, and what it would be on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Thanks Aug for this!!

notice the much higher rain chances tomorrow for the counties along our gulf coast regions, below the I-4 corridor

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tropical Depression 14 is currently forecast to become a tropical
storm as it lifts north through the Central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico early this week. This system is not expected to have a direct
impact on South Florida. Deep moisture will bring widespread squally
weather through at least mid week. The main hazards will be gusty
winds, flooding, and isolated tornadoes.

Marine conditions will deteriorate due to the influence of Tropical
Depression 14 in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters starting tonight.
Advisory conditions are likely through at least mid week. A high
risk of rip currents will continue in the Atlantic waters with a
potential for an elevated risk along the Gulf Beaches starting
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

right here is where my trouble time might be, just a weave eastward and these winds get stronger..

Lets hope THIS model is dead wrong on Landfall..stay alert WD etc up there......................

ok where is the blogs Coffee LOL..BBL

Pinellas county EM site..............http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/default.htm

Good morning everyone! Why do weekends go so fast?

Thanks for posting the link to that chart Aug, I never can find it!

Tropical Storm Michael Update Statement

WTNT64 KNHC 071653
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

sangria wrote:Tropical Storm Michael Update Statement

WTNT64 KNHC 071653
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

Pressure has been holding at 1004 MB for some time.