COULD IT HAPPEN ????

Let's see everyday since Dorian dissipated into it a tropical wave we were given yellow and orange circles of death. 50% one morning just because how the wave acted during the diurnal maximum. All of these circles of death came at the time in our propagating wave's life when it was dramatically influenced by westerly shear. NOW FLASH FORWARD TO THIS EVENING ..

We have tropical wave with a history of strong diurnal maximums.

Today I noticed that some of the energy from the wave (this mornings surface circulation)has crossed the Cuban Coast and is NW of Jamaica. In that area there is no shear. I find it funny that a wave who got high chance numbers throughout the week in high shear gets none when there is no shear...

So I say I will draw my own little yellow circle of death in that area South of Cuba.

My reasoning:

1. This wave has strong diurnal maximums and the Southern part of the wave the most active in propagating surface lows. That part of the wave is now South of Cuba

2. South of Cuba there is no shear mostly below 15kts which relates to conducive.

3. Upper level divergence is increasing over Cuba and South of Cuba near the wave.

4. Low level divergence is increasing in the area of the energy that crossed Cuba from the wave.

Now you understand the title of the blog so I ask you could it happen?

" />

Thanks for sharing your thoughts gomey. I'm going to say "no" based on no reasoning whatsoever, lol

LOL your reasoning based on no reasoning must be the reasoning for my 90% chance of just a cloud.....