Arthur Lives!

Time to catch up on Future Hurricane Arthur. I guess that first sentence sum's up my thoughts...
I believe Tropical Storm Arthur will be the seasons first Hurricane. I think Arthur will make minimum Hurricane status during the diurnal Maximum in the early morning hours on July 3rd.
Happy Fourth of July East Coast  ,old Mother Nature has her special fireworks just for you.
So now all we have is questions with no answers...

Lets address the questions..

First how strong will Arthur get?

I am thinking Category 2 Hurricane with winds between 95-108 mph with some gust in category 3 range of 115 MPH depending on the future speed of the forward movement. The biggest factor may be the proximity to the Gulf Stream.
As we can see shear will not be much of an issue as it will be in an area of 5-10kts. :


Water temperature will be the key to wind strength.

The storm is in warm waters of the Gulf Stream and looks to track right along with the Gulf Stream.


Will this be the seasons first Hurricane and Major Hurricane? I don't know....

Where will Hurricane Arthur go?

To this we look to the steering currents and Arthur is between two areas of High pressure one to it's East over The Northern Gulf and the Bermuda high . There is a clear path for Arthur to move NNE to NE


I expect Arthur will have a forward speed of 7-12 mph then accelerate to 15-20 mph later down the road...the acceleration later will be the limits on the wind speed.

So this welcome to Hurricane Season 2014!!

Looks like some on the East Coast may be the first to assume the hunker position!

Look for a Stronger hurricanes in the coming advisories and a East shift in the Cone. Methinks a direct hit on North Carolina at a very strong Cat1 and most likely a Cat2

Yea, what Gomey says. LMAO

I'm gonna stick with what I mentioned in chat - it scrapes the coast (ie: the outer banks). I'll go with 90mph peak intensity.

Hi

Link to this photo Iran and the Middle East ?
Thank you.