CLOSED FLORIDA/ALABAMA/TROPICAL BLOG

NWS Tampa...............Sat Sep 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. Thunderstorms
that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and
frequent deadly lightning strikes. However...the greatest concern
with storms will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall over
already saturated soils.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected. The heavy rain falling into
areas with already highly saturated soils is likely to produce
localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as well
as the ponding of water on roadways. Motorists should exercise
caution.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Many local rivers and stream are running high due to recent heavy
rainfall. Rivers that are currently above flood stage include
Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens...the Myakka River at Myakka
River State Park...Horse Creek near Arcadia...and the Peace River
near Arcadia. There have also been reports of significant flooding
along the Imperial River in southern Lee County. Since additional
heavy rainfall is possible through the weekend...residents living
along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware of
water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding
be observed.

Morning.  First full weekend of college football.  What a game to kick off opening weekend with Alabama/FSU.  Some other good matchups as well.

Had some rain after 11pm'ish last night that dumped .24".  Jax indicated for today's forecast they basically have no clue what's going to happen, lol.  Huh??  

The model ebbs and flows continue.  If a storm were to threaten, I would be wishful of a dry period beforehand.  Don't want/need saturated soils before a named system approaches.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
526 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

The 00Z models did not do a very good job of initializing all of
the convection over our area this past evening. Thus, today`s
forecast is one of low confidence and will largely hinge on how
much heating is realized through possible breaks in mid to upper
level cloud cover. If we get more heating than expected then we
could end up seeing a day similar to yesterday, but the current
thinking is that the steady stream of tropical moisture being
pumped in off the Gulf of Mexico will produce enough mid/high
clouds to limit heating and cut back on the coverage and intensity
of convection. So although we anticipate convection to be a
little weaker and more scattered (with the best coverage along the
I-95 corridor), it should be noted that this forecast is one of
lower confidence than usual.

Good morning everyone!

My favorite met at Ruskin was the author of this morning's mid/long term discussion.  I don't even have to look at the bottom to see who wrote it when he is the writer - his discussions are identifiable.  :-)

Clipped from the 4am discussion:

The middle and later part of the week become a bit more
challenging.  There is good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF
and Canadian that a fairly significant amplification to the
longwave pattern will develop over the central/eastern
CONUS during the middle of the week. This deep troughing for
early September will drive a cold front southward to the
eastern Gulf and at least northern Florida. The amplitude of
the trough is somewhat in question due to its depth and the
time of year...would not be surprised if we see this
feature de-amplify a bit in coming model runs. However, the
agreement among models is worth noting and taking serious.
Obviously a frontal system dropping into our area is
problematic this time of year due to the potential for more
widespread heavy rainfall. Will have to monitor closely
model trends related to this front. The ECMWF is less
aggressive with its southward progress and keeps our entire
area in a wetter pattern through the end of the forecast
period, while the GFS allows some of our northern areas to
become post-frontal with arrival of drier air. As mentioned
above, my gut feeling is that less southern progress of this
front is more likely, but we will just need to monitor.
Either way, some areas of heavy rainfall are likely to
complicate our flooding concerns Wednesday into Thursday and
Friday.

Final note will be with respect to Hurricane Irma out in the
Atlantic. The normal uptick in rumors and concern related to
long range model solutions has already begun with this
storm. Please keep in mind that this hurricane is currently
located more than 2000 miles from Florida. That is a long
way away! The numerical weather models are going to show
changeable solutions/tracks/etc related to this storm over
the coming days. It is very important to remember not to
focus on one particular model or track solution. Very subtle
changes in the atmosphere and/or the structure of Irma will
have large impacts on the downstream simulations. The
National Weather Service will be closely monitoring the
evolution and model trends related to Irma through the
week...but it is simply to early to predict where this storm
might end up a week or more from now. It is important not
to get caught up in speculation that might lead to improper
decisions. The best way to protect yourself and your family
with respect to any tropical cyclone is to simply be
prepared. Have a plan of action for your family...and be
ready to put that plan into action should the time come that
a tropical cyclone threatens your area.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka

I liked Mroczka's Irma discussion. As to the trough discussion, I hope it digs deep, lol. But, yeah, hard to get a strong front here in early September.

Current visible sat and 5 day forecast cone.

StAugustineFL wrote:Current visible sat and 5 day forecast cone.

The very noticeable dip SW has begun.... now we wait to see how long before she starts the move back W/NW

NHC discussion has her dipping from 19N to 17N before latitude gain resumes.

Good morning all. Mark Sudduth put out a UTube video last night explaining the atmospheric elements that will affect Irma's track. Search UTube HurricaneTracks - one word. He's not my favorite but Mark clearly illustrates the complex dynamics involved in predicting folks who might be impacted by this storm. Take a look. Feedback welcome. Ok where's the coffee pot?!

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  First full weekend of college football.  What a game to kick off opening weekend with Alabama/FSU.  Some other good matchups as well.

Had some rain after 11pm'ish last night that dumped .24".  Jax indicated for today's forecast they basically have no clue what's going to happen, lol.  Huh??  

The model ebbs and flows continue.  If a storm were to threaten, I would be wishful of a dry period beforehand.  Don't want/need saturated soils before a named system approaches.

yes indeed Aug...and from the looks of it we wont get dry ground today whew...........

too bad this trough/front didn't come over florida this time next weekend..could have been a saving grace maybe..pushing Irma away?

well I guess we in florida can count on a wet windy next weekend IF Irma only passes going northward..who knows what surprises she has in store for us huh

Navy Model has IRMA as a Huge Hurricane huh next Friday.........................

PuppyToes wrote:Good morning all. Mark Sudduth put out a UTube video last night explaining the atmospheric elements that will affect Irma's track. Search UTube HurricaneTracks - one word. He's not my favorite but Mark clearly illustrates the complex dynamics involved in predicting folks who might be impacted by this storm. Take a look. Feedback welcome. Ok where's the coffee pot?!

Thanks PuppyToes! I don't believe I've ever watched one of his vids, but I did watch the one you referenced from last night. There is not a whole lot to talk about right now. Until the trough activity is a clear forecast, it's a toss up as to what happens.

storms getting closer to your area San...................................................................

LargoFL wrote:storms getting closer to your area San...................................................................

I moved all my plants that are prone to root rot back under cover, so no rain for me now.....lol

Seriously - it's all staying off shore.

sangria wrote:

LargoFL wrote:storms getting closer to your area San...................................................................

I moved all my plants that are prone to root rot back under cover, so no rain for me now.....lol

Seriously - it's all staying off shore.

ok San, that's a good move alright with all this wet weather lately.

folks 12Z Euro..every run it inches closer to Florida but..goes into the Carolina's so far....

and..does 922 mb make Irma a cat-4?..IF it indeed takes this path..look at the size of this monster,even if it doesn't exactly come ashore..all of us will be getting a pice of this storm...but..i say again..nothing can be believed yet..kinda scary huh.

are you ready for THIS?...one of the waves Behind Irma...into the gulf and.......

we cannot believe any models now folks,even NHC is saying that but..the peak of the hurricane season is sept 10th and the tropics is coming alive bigtime..time for us to go over our plans and preps and hmm maybe even double check supplies etc...

gome...Jenny and yeah I guess all of us on gulf coast..16 days out too far out to believe but..

sure would be great if the Euro model went out in time to 384 hours like the GFS..but it doesn't.

San Light rain starting here by me..guess your getting it also by now,line seems to be sinking south..

the storm after Jenny IF it forms would be Jose..60% chance NHC says to form.

yeah a lot of thunder out in the gulf..guess it will be over me too next few hours..

future Jose now up to 70% chance of forming............................................1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

St Pete..get any outside chores done..looks like we will get a lot of rain soon,whew almost non stop booming out in the gulf here..

oh oh..st pete..jR...we are in this warning............................................Special Statement
Issued: 2:07 PM EDT Sep. 2, 2017 – National Weather Service

... An area of strong thunderstorms will affect central Pinellas
County...

At 205 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 11 miles southwest
of Bay Pines, or 12 miles southwest of Seminole, moving northeast at
20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clearwater, largo, Pinellas Park, Seminole, downtown Saint
Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, St. Petersburg, St. Pete beach, Bay
Pines, south Highpoint, Harbor Bluffs, west and east Lealman,
Ridgecrest, Tierra Verde, feather sound, Gulfport, Treasure Island,
Kenneth City, South Pasadena and Madeira Beach.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Lat... Lon 2798 8275 2775 8256 2773 8257 2764 8282
      2786 8291
time... Mot... loc 1805z 234deg 17kt 2772 8293


Tbw

Levi Cowan just put out an update on Irma.
Tropicaltidbits.com

PuppyToes wrote:Levi Cowan just put out an update on Irma.
Tropicaltidbits.com

thanks PT

12Z Euro with some good news..remember we cant trust the models yet..........

boy the rain here just wont quit......................................................

well that's it for me ..good night folks..stay safe out there.

I know this is the "hang out" spot for the site but feel free to take a peek around other blogs/pages. Gomey's put out several astromony blogs, there's a Nascar blog (yeah, sorta redneck, lol), and san posted a new blog specific to Irma. It's just our little group here so those blogs aren't from some unknown person. Or, if interested, create your own if there's something you're passionate about. Could be another common interest beyond weather that folks share.

On the weather front, mixed sun and clouds today with a brief sprinkle a couple hours ago. So light the pavement showed no signs of being wet. Could barely feel it on the skin or see a few drops on the pond.

on the models overnight runs last night...Euro and GFS came together,both have Irma just off the east coast of florida..and not coming ashore..but running up the east coast into Georgia/Carolina's.....still many days for this to change...

walking the dogs this early morning,glad it wasn't raining on us lol..

Folks..these were just One run of the models and Nothing can be believed ok...by this coming tues/wens we get into the 5 day range and the NHC will be giving the Real info on Irma ok...no model can be believed yet..Hurricane hunters are supposedly flying into Irma today and they will give the models Correct info..im sure run to run the models will change once again............stay alert prepared and we'll see how this plays out..........just watch....next week the storm goes into maine lol....too early to know ok.

Good Sunday Morning folks!!..I must have gotten some rain overnight,street etc wet...it looks like today a 50/50 chance for a shower or two later........well Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..enjpy and relax..its our Holiday weekend !!

NWS Tampa..........Sun Sep 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. Thunderstorms
that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and
frequent deadly lightning strikes. However...the greatest concern
with storms will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall over
already saturated soils.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected. The heavy rain falling into
areas with already highly saturated soils is likely to produce
localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as well
as the ponding of water on roadways. Motorists should exercise
caution.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Many local rivers and stream are running high due to recent heavy
rainfall. Rivers that are currently above flood stage include
Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens...the Myakka River at Myakka
River State Park...Horse Creek near Arcadia...and the Peace River
near Arcadia. There have also been reports of significant flooding
along the Imperial River in southern Lee County. Since additional
heavy rainfall is possible today...residents living along rivers
or faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and
be ready to move to higher ground should flooding be observed.

Good morning and happy Sunday all!  

I had a very nice light rain yesterday afternoon that left me with .5" in the gauge.  It looks like the gulf is still moist, although maybe not as much as yesterday morning....




Nothing happening in the northern peninsula....

Morning. Very comfortable start to the day. 70 degrees with a 69 dew point. Been awhile since I've had a DP in the 60's. I'm sure it'll creep back up as the day wears on.

I agree Aug.... It is very pleasant here this morning as well.  72 with a 72DP

I haven't posted the beloved cam shot in a while, so here is the morning view with a few clouds...

The local Fox news station just had a segment on gas prices.  The average Tampa Bay area price is $2.62/gallon - up $0.30/gallon in 7 days and the highest price for the year.  They indicated prices will go up another $0.05 - $0.10/gallon before leveling off when the refineries get back to standard level production toward the end of the month.

Holy crap!! This is a Facebook vid. Not sure how to convert it so all can see.

https://www.facebook.com/uniladmag/videos/vb.146505212039213/2988809377808768/?type=2&theater&comment_id=163048004270841¬if_t=comment_mention¬if_id=1504432325751214

StAugustineFL wrote:Holy crap!!  This is a Facebook vid.  Not sure how to convert it so all can see.

https://www.facebook.com/uniladmag/videos/vb.146505212039213/2988809377808768/?type=2&theater&comment_id=163048004270841¬if_t=comment_mention¬if_id=1504432325751214

yes Lightning sure can be destructive and deadly huh

well just after 10am and overcast and for august cool 70's!!!! I don't mind this at all!!..rain so far is staying off the coast,just a sprinkle every now and then..not a bad morning here.