CLOSED Beginning of 2018 Tropical Season for Florida

You need a break Bills!  It looks like you will have a long week ahead of you.....  sigh

This is a handy page to bookmark, it is the NWS Southern Region "Tropical" page.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical

About an hour's worth of steady rain just past. Just over 1" here in S.Jax.

well sun has broken thru the solid overcast here..might be some lingering showers thru the day but for now its nice outside, man the ground is soaking wet,hasnt been like this in quite a long time,grass will grow a foot high now lol

Aug tomorrow or when it finally comes ashore up on the northern gulf coast..stay alert..as you can see down here..most of the storms are wayyy over on the east side of the state..that can be happening by your area when it gets up in the northern gulf..good luck ok

Im wondering IF..since all these storms are circling the LOW..will tonight or tomorrow morning..will all these storms be back over us down here?

all those storms over on the east coast look serious huh

A secondary band popped up. Had a tad over 1" from the first batch. Guessing I'm at 1.5+ now without officially checking the gauge.

on mikes weather site there is mentioning of possible tornadic activity thru central florida..no mention of it on NWS so far but...stay alert folks.

on this pic..watch the centerm does'nt look like its circling back down

Thanks for the bookmark San!

Sun is out here too. I just got back from getting lunch. Lots of flooded parking lots, but the streets are fine.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks for the bookmark San!

Sun is out here too. I just got back from getting lunch.  Lots of flooded parking lots, but the streets are fine.  

fire up the BBQ Billsfan!!

I guess we'll be getting a shower here and there tonight alot of clouds above me moving pretty good too...nws has my overnight rain chances at 51%..Aug stay safe up there..all those east coast storms heading your way..i wonder how WD and PT made out so far?

still bad storms over on the east coast huh..................................
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 316 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
waterspouts was located 10 nm southwest of Jonathan Dickinson State
Park, or 11 nm west of Tequesta, moving north at 20 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can can quickly form and capsize boats,
damage vessels and create locally hazardous seas. Make
sure all on board are wearing life jackets. Expect wind
gusts in excess of 34 knots...suddenly higher
waves...lightning and heavy downpours. Make sure all on
board are wearing life jackets. Return to safe harbor if
possible.

* Locations impacted include...
Hobe Sound Beach, Rio, Jupiter Island, Sewall`s Point and Hobe
Sound Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily
overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor
immediately.

&&

Those POPs % just make me laugh!!

LOL san...just after 5pm here and getting pretty windy,clouds are sort of thickening, but no rain that I can see.

interesting, they still have us in the possible severe storms zone (yellow)..overnight maybe??

yeah there are still more storms below Florida coming northward,stay alert folks..

well thats it for me folks..have a good night ok and stay safe out there.

LOL San on the POPs.

Thanks for checking in JR, hopefully you and Aug hook up.

Nite Largo, Thank you for all the updates! And the coffee of course.

Turned into a nice day here, sunny, breezy, a little drier

It is sit and spin time while the west coast of FL gets dry slotted...

It's still been cloudy but no rain.

I have this bad feeling that June is going to feel incredibly HOT due to us being so "cool" the past few weeks.

Just got an alert from Mike's weather page , Alberto moving SW and strengthing? Sure hope not.

1.65 total in S.Jax for the day, in 2 rounds. .5 back at the homestead.

Ya, Bills. I'm sure we'll be in the hot/muggy zone soon, and on day 3 of this last no-rain window the skeeters and pestering flies were out in force!

Going to be brutal with skeeters for sure We are armed with two battery powered mosquito zappers purchased at Wal-Mart .Kills flies too. Highly recommend them

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Going to be brutal with skeeters for sure  We are armed with two battery powered mosquito zappers purchased at Wal-Mart .Kills flies too. Highly recommend them

yes they are getting real bad here by me also ...ouch!!

monday morning abd still..big storms down by Billsfan..its not over yet................

Good Monday Morning folks and Happy Memorial day!! remember to Thank a Vet today!! well no rain by me so far but there are some showers around I guess...yesterday i got a whopping .25 inches LOL..i guess the NHC etc didnt expect all that dry air to kill things off rain wise huh...well enjoy the Holiday folks..stay safe out there.

Morning. Similar conditions here to what JR had on his S Jax visit. Dumped 1.53" from the gauge in two rounds. Looks like a typical day up here. Morning sun and perhaps some PM thunderstorms. Dry slot is large and in charge.

Bills - JR and I did meet up.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Similar conditions here to what JR had on his S Jax visit.  Dumped 1.53" from the gauge in two rounds.  Looks like a typical day up here.  Morning sun and perhaps some PM thunderstorms.  Dry slot is large and in charge.

glad you got some good rain up there Aug

If Jenny is lurking this effects her area.



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0211
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280645Z - 281230Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING ONSHORE BAND OF STS ALBERTO ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMA AND CONVERGENCE POSE PSBL FLASH FLOODING RISK
EVEN WITH HIGH FFG IN THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...RECENT GOES-16 10.3UM IR AND TLH RADAR SHOWS BANDED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN APALACHEE BAY EXPANDING IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS TOWARD WAKULLA COUNTY AS WELL AS HUGGING THE COAST
TOWARD CEDAR KEY. THIS IS LIKELY DIRECTED BY LAND BREEZE COMING
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ALBERTO. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS SOLID SFC MST CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH
SBCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
WESTWARD WOBBLE OF ALBERTO EXPECTED BEFORE NORTHWARD TRACK...THIS
BAND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STATIC WITH UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE INNER CORE/MOISTURE CORE PER CIRA LPW ANALYSIS...MOISTURE IS
AMPLE FOR SOLID 2"/HR RATES. GIVEN BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30KT
AND PROPAGATION VECTORS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN UPWIND IN THE BAND
SUGGEST CONTINUED TRAINING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS
SUCH 4-6" OF RAIN IS PROBABLE AND WOULD BE VERY NEAR FFG VALUES IN
THE AREA. WHILE LIKELY ENOUGH TIME TO PASS GIVEN OUTFLOW TO THE
SEA...THE AREA WAS RECENT AFFECTED BY A 10" RAINFALL THAT MAY
LOWER THRESHOLDS EVEN BY A FRACTION. ALL CONSIDERED FLASH
FLOODING OR MORE LIKELY QUICK INUNDATION FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 HOURS.

INNER CORE BAND IS CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF GULF AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY...LACK OF INSTABILITY HERE HAS LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH OF
RAIN PRODUCTION LAYER TO HAVE HIGH RATES. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE WITH ALBERTO'S WESTWARD DRIFT THE UPSTREAM BAND MAY ANGLE
WEST ENOUGH TO POSE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE TO BE ENCOMPASSED BY THE
MPD AREA OF CONCERN.

GALLINA

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Going to be brutal with skeeters for sure  We are armed with two battery powered mosquito zappers purchased at Wal-Mart .Kills flies too. Highly recommend them

You bet, Bills. I took your heed last year and have 4 of them. They work wonders for sure!!! I may have to start taking one along for my walks, too.

StAugustineFL wrote:Bills - JR and I did meet up.    

and I am in debt for a few of Tampabay's finest drafts.

Good to meet you, Aug!

Likewise JR. Sans (not san) the missing wallet (I always keep it under my hat in the kitchen. Since I went hat-less I forgot!) it was a good time. No reciprocation necessary but Tampa Bays finest drafts sounds good if/when I get down that way.

Day 1 QPF is looking quite feeble for the majority of peninsular FL. Bills looks to be the winner - if she wants it after all the rain in SEFL the past week+

and if that doesn't work out, Aug, you can pretty much count on me being in Jax for most of the holidays.

well on and off light showers here all this morning,looks like it will continue thru the day...funny thing..my neighbor says she has a rain gauge and for the last 2 days her gauge says 3 inches of rain we got? only 2 doors down from me?..well no wonder my grass is so green now lol..my guess is all that must have come down in the overnights

im getting some pretty strong gusts of wind here..strong enough to break off small pieces of tree branches,

NWS Tampa....... Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers are expected across the area today
as Subtropical Storm Alberto continues to move north.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds, locally heavy rains, and deadly lightning strikes.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Breezy onshore winds will cause high tides to run around 1 to 2
feet above normal today, potentially causing coastal flooding
along the Nature Coast. Coastal residents should monitor water
levels, and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Breezy winds and high surf over the Gulf waters will continue to
produce an increased risk of rip currents along area beaches
today and into Tuesday.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
A tight pressure gradient in the wake of Subtropical Storm Alberto
will continue to create sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 knots
today, with seas of up to 10 feet over the Gulf waters. High
pressure will build back into the area Tuesday, allowing marine
conditions to improve.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park is currently in minor
flood stage, and other area rivers could reach flood stage with
additional heavy rains. Residents living along rivers or faster
flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready
to move to higher ground should flooding be observed.

Alberto went right over this buoy. 992 Millibars, waves got up to 16 feet

StPeteFLwx wrote:Alberto went right over this buoy. 992 Millibars, waves got up to 16 feet

wow hope no boats were out there whew

5/28 10:00 EDT 0 0.01 0.01 0.04 2.91...so in 7 days i got almost 3 inches of rain here, now Billsfan might have gotten that just yesterday huh...gee

yes i was right..getting wind gusts to 30 mph here today...Wind Speed S 21 G 30 mph

Hi everyone! Largo- I don't think I quite got 3 yesterday, but I've certainly had way more than my fair share .I'm guessing 14-16 inches. But I don't know for sure.