CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

WD-AUG..im sure not liking this mornings Euro model runs..stay alert to Florence ok.....................

notice the southward turn once it comes ashore, could be Florida gets a lil of its winds etc.............

ok so maybe next Monday northern Florida Could be experiencing some of Florences winds etc....stay alert and safe up there..............................

Morning. Hmmm, those models need to shift. Not liking the trend the last couple of days.

Morning All,
I'M not surprised by the southward kind of shift in the track. The high pressure to the north is going to be the factor as to how far southwest Flo goes.
Keep an eye on this storm!!!
As for around here not much going on. I have 1.99 in the bucket for the month so far.
Have a great day!!!!
John Z-hills

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Hmmm, those models need to shift.  Not liking the trend the last couple of days.  

Morning Aug, yes not good so far.

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
I'M not surprised by the southward kind of shift in the track. The high pressure to the north is going to be the factor as to how far southwest Flo goes.
Keep an eye on this storm!!!
As for around here not much going on. I have 1.99 in the bucket for the month so far.
Have a great day!!!!
John Z-hills

morning john. yes watching this storm very closely alright.

for us in Florida,there are still days to come where the Hurricanes track could..make a sharper turn southward huh, man i hope it doesnt come into Florida but IF it does, quite possible it wont be a strong storm by then??

local TV met sure sounds a bit nervous here when talking about how far southward florence may come but Nothing "official" yet ..hopefully she doesnt flow down anywhere near florida huh...tv news is saying walmarts up there Need their supplies to be restocked, some of that resupply might come from florida stores hope WE dont run out too huh..stay alert folks

well i have 5 cases of water, i have extra gasoline, 5 bags of charcoal, got the plywood etc...and im far south and west, i should be ok..but remember what ive been saying about waking up to a surprise..i never trust these storms at all...well stay safe out there ok...one thing i need to get is dry ice for my floor freezer, in case the power goes out but im waiting a lil more before i buy that..might not need it here.

i see we have people lurking as guests reading our blog, folks please join us in here we could use some more good posters ok!

[quote="LargoFL"]local TV met sure sounds a bit nervous here when talking about how far southward florence may come but Nothing "official" yet ..hopefully she doesnt flow down anywhere near florida huh...tv news is saying walmarts up there Need their supplies to be restocked, some of that resupply might come from florida stores hope WE dont run out too huh..stay alert folks[/quote

I think all the meteorologists are nervous Largo. They don't know where this storm is going and it's 2 days from potential landfall. At this point I am guessing it won't landfall in NC, but ride down the coast and loop aroundt a bit before finally coming ashore in SC. The models showed this potential weakness in the steering currents due to the high building in many days ago and everyone just thought they were overblown. They seemed to get a handle on the storm turning northward and following the classic path arcing NE and eventually away from the US. Now the models have shifted back to the high building in stronger to the north and stalling her, even potentially sending her southward. I am beginning to think the storm will meander for days as a depression over the SC/GA area. Florence is going to really spread a lot of the destruction around due to this. I think the rainfall is going to be epic in some area of the SE, but nobody can say where that will be with any confidence as of yet. Somebody is going to get hammered that originally thought they were out of the woods.

LargoFL wrote:for us in Florida,there are still days to come where the Hurricanes track could..make a sharper turn southward huh, man i hope it doesnt come into Florida but IF it does, quite possible it wont be a strong storm by then??

At this time it appears that some rain bands may affect northern FL, depending on how far south Florence gets. It doesn't look like FL will be getting the strong winds, surge, etc. unless this thing stalls far offshore and then heads south into the JAX area. If that happens it could end up being disastrous as I don't think people could get out due to traffic. Also, where would they go with the fact that NC, SC and GA will have evacuated as well. I am sure some of those people came south into FL and GA to get away from the storm when we thought it was going northward into the mid Atlantic. What a forecasting and planning nightmare.

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:for us in Florida,there are still days to come where the Hurricanes track could..make a sharper turn southward huh, man i hope it doesnt come into Florida but IF it does, quite possible it wont be a strong storm by then??

At this time it appears that some rain bands may affect northern FL, depending on how far south Florence gets. It doesn't look like FL will be getting the strong winds, surge, etc. unless this thing stalls far offshore and then heads south into the JAX area. If that happens it could end up being disastrous as I don't think people could get out due to traffic. Also, where would they go with the fact that NC, SC and GA will have evacuated as well. I am sure some of those people came south into FL and GA to get away from the storm when we thought it was going northward into the mid Atlantic. What a forecasting and planning nightmare.

yes we have to wait this out and see IF it does sink southward and how close it comes to Florida.

AUG.... latest wind cone has you in the 10-20% chance range,and we have a few days to go yet.....

LargoFL wrote:well i have 5 cases of water, i have extra gasoline, 5 bags of charcoal, got the plywood etc...and im far south and west, i should be ok..but remember what ive been saying about waking up to a surprise..i never trust these storms at all...well stay safe out there ok...one thing i need to get is dry ice for my floor freezer, in case the power goes out but im waiting a lil more before i buy that..might not need it here.

Largo- how does dry ice work? Never used it...

I was reading on some of the blogs, SO many folks fled NC (as they should have, and went to areas in Georgia)... What a mess for all.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well i have 5 cases of water, i have extra gasoline, 5 bags of charcoal, got the plywood etc...and im far south and west, i should be ok..but remember what ive been saying about waking up to a surprise..i never trust these storms at all...well stay safe out there ok...one thing i need to get is dry ice for my floor freezer, in case the power goes out but im waiting a lil more before i buy that..might not need it here.

Largo- how does dry ice work?  Never used it...

it-depending how much you use..freezes the food in the freezer and keeps it frozen for longer periods of time after power goes out.if i see the storm coming my way i'll go buy several large bags of it..i have a stand alone 6 foot freezer in my garage

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I was reading on some of the blogs, SO many folks fled NC (as they should have, and went to areas in Georgia)... What a mess for all.

yes i just have the feeling..that THIS Hurricane is going to catch ALOT of people off guard..2 days out and they STILL have no 100% idea where its going and what it will do geez.

Wilmington to Jacksonville..where is she going??

billsfan...hope this works...........Dry ice in freezer during power outage
At -109 degrees F, dry ice can replace the cooling power of a refrigerator or freezer. During a power outage, place dry ice on the top shelf of the freezer and the bottom shelf of the refrigerator. In a standard freezer, you will need 25-30 pounds of dry ice to keep food frozen for one day.Jan 22, 2016
Dry Ice for a Power Outage - Continental Carbonic
https://www.continentalcarbonic.com/blog/dry-ice-for-a-power-outage/

Bastardi's take is that the Euro is going to win this round and Florence is going to stall just offshore of Wilmington. She is then going to drift slowly south westward and finally make a landfall somewhere near Savannah, GA. The storm will then slowly move westward into GA and southern SC and then re-curve through Tennesee and NC and eventually re-emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coastline late next week. He also has Isaac or the remnants of hitting S FL late next week. He think it could die off then try to re-form somewhere near the straights. I know he likes to hype so take it with a grain of salt.

waterdipper wrote:Bastardi's take is that the Euro is going to win this round and Florence is going to stall just offshore of Wilmington. She is then going to drift slowly south westward and finally make a landfall somewhere near Savannah, GA. The storm will then slowly move westward into GA and southern SC and then re-curve through Tennesee and NC and eventually re-emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coastline late next week. He also has Isaac or the remnants of hitting S FL late next week. He think it could die off then try to re-form  somewhere near the straights. I know he likes to hype so take it with a grain of salt.

ok many thanks for this update WD

long discussion for your area AUG..be safe ok....................................87
FXUS62 KJAX 121332
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
932 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...SWELLS FROM FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES...

.UPDATE...

Major Hurricane Florence continues to approach the southeast U.S.
coast this morning. The mean 1000-500 mb flow is is generally
northeasterly over southeast GA and northeast FL as outer cyclonic
circulation of Florence impinges on the region now. We are just
as moist as we were yesterday but there is more abundance of low
level moisture which is allowing early start to convection along
the coastal areas. Radar shows isolated showers up and down the
coast where low level moisture convergence is maximized early this
morning. Expect continuation of showers and storms developing
through the morning aided by daytime heating and the east coast
sea breeze. PWATs remain around 2 inches for the majority of the
day today favoring heavy downpours, though storm motion should be
a bit faster than yesterday`s storms as onshore flow increases.
High temperatures in the lower 90s are expected inland with upper
80s at the beaches, resulting in heat index values of about
100-105 areawide. A few showers and storms may linger inland past
sunset again, but for the most part most locations will be dry
tonight but may see a few coastal showers pushing northeast to
southwest.

Long period swells along area waters will continue to will build
through Thursday creating life-threatening rip currents and rough
surf. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and storms will develop along the Atlantic
seabreeze and move inland by late morning/early afternoon. Winds
will remain north to northeast early then shift to prevailing
northeast-east at about 5 to 10 knots, maybe as high as 15 knots
at coastal terminals. A few storms may linger past sunset, but
otherwise most convection should end by early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Increased east northeast swell is expected later today from
Hurricane Florence. Small Craft Advisory are in effect
this afternoon with seas building through the day. Highest waves
will likely remain in the offshore waters, but could approach 12
feet there, and around 7 feet in the nearshore waters. High
astronomical tides will continue to produce elevated water levels
the next few days near times of high tide. There is some
uncertainty in what happens with Florence for the weekend, with
the possibility of tropical storm force winds reaching the area
waters by Saturday. Stay tuned to the latest forecast as well as
the National Hurricane Center to monitor for any changes in
conditions beyond Friday.

Rip Currents: High risk through the end of the week. High surf
advisory may be needed for tonight and into Thursday as breakers
approach 7 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 73 92 72 / 50 10 10 0
SSI 88 76 91 76 / 40 10 10 0
JAX 91 74 93 74 / 40 10 10 0
SGJ 88 75 89 74 / 40 20 20 10
GNV 92 73 92 73 / 20 20 20 10
OCF 92 73 92 73 / 40 20 30 20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal Duval-
Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-Inland
Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal Camden-
Coastal Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 PM this afternoon
to 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound
to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Shashy/Bricker

gee by tomorrow or friday Tampa bay area Could be in this wind zone huh??.......................................

well I have to say FALL is close at hand..just cleaned out my gutters and they were full gee but im glad i did it..maybe some heavy rains coming next few days or so IF Florence decides to do so lol

Well Sis and Bro-IL in Summerville SC are hunkering down for the ride. RV is ready to roll (and tied down), over 100 gals of gas in vehicles and cans. They are not flood prone, and are tying everything down today that cannot be stashed away. They both went thru Hugo, so know what they're getting in to.

so weekend after next might be interesting,depending on what model you choose.

ok..sept 22nd..one model has a small hurricane gulf coast Florida..one model has it going to Texas..stay tuned lol

one thing is for sure..the hurricane season isnt over huh

JRnOldsmar wrote:Well Sis and Bro-IL in Summerville SC are hunkering down for the ride.  RV is ready to roll (and tied down), over 100 gals of gas in vehicles and cans.  They are not flood prone, and are tying everything down today that cannot be stashed away.  They both went thru Hugo, so know what they're getting in to.

Good to them JR- sounds like they have it under control!   Niece in Charleston is part of the Hospital disaster plan so she HAS to stay there (at the hospital)
She says they have plenty of food, water and sleeping quarters.  Her fiancée left with the dog and headed to Florida somewhere.  The other niece in Hilton Head hasn't checked in yet, but I'm sure she's with her patients too.  (had to evacuate last time)...

Thanks Largo.. Hope our generator arrives on 9/20 as scheduled.  I've heard stories of pre-ordered, pre-paid for generators can voided and they can take yours and send it elsewhere.  That doesn't strike me as fair, what if I need it too??  But I know it happens.   I wanted to get one cash and carry from Lowes earlier this week but they had nothing big enough for hubby's liking.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Well Sis and Bro-IL in Summerville SC are hunkering down for the ride.  RV is ready to roll (and tied down), over 100 gals of gas in vehicles and cans.  They are not flood prone, and are tying everything down today that cannot be stashed away.  They both went thru Hugo, so know what they're getting in to.

Friend just completed a house outside of Wilmington, hopefully with all the new construction codes the house will stand up well. But they aren't sticking around to find out.

Pop-ups across Central Florida

Afternoon y'all.....

Looks like Flo may be taking a slight hit from some shear this afternoon. I hope that is the case and she doesn't have the opportunity to beef herself back up.

JR, sounds like your family has things under control up there, I wish them the best of luck that this storm is kind to them.

Aug be careful driving friday, be safe up there ok..........................................................

gee in Size, this hurricane is HUGE huh winds go out 390 miles omg

One for the record books for sure! Good luck to all!

Good luck to all with family in the path. As san mentioned the storm (for now) is losing some umph so that is good.

The only place I'll be driving on Friday Largo is to the store to pick up my weekend beer stash after my work day is over, lol.

Seems all the models are finally locking in on a solution for that southward trend. Looks like a NC/SC system. Now (as JR pointed out sometime ago) Isaac could get interesting. These storms definitely keep us on our toes.

Levi..........

Thanks San. I’m finally getting him on a regular basis on FB.

But good to post it.

Good Thursday Morning folks!!..well alot of booming thunder overnight, someone really got a good storm..well FLO is down to a Cat-2 hurricane as i write this..but size has increased..we'll see how this plays out next few days ok..........well have a wonderful day everyone!

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:for us in Florida,there are still days to come where the Hurricanes track could..make a sharper turn southward huh, man i hope it doesnt come into Florida but IF it does, quite possible it wont be a strong storm by then??

At this time it appears that some rain bands may affect northern FL, depending on how far south Florence gets. It doesn't look like FL will be getting the strong winds, surge, etc. unless this thing stalls far offshore and then heads south into the JAX area. If that happens it could end up being disastrous as I don't think people could get out due to traffic. Also, where would they go with the fact that NC, SC and GA will have evacuated as well. I am sure some of those people came south into FL and GA to get away from the storm when we thought it was going northward into the mid Atlantic. What a forecasting and planning nightmare.

Waterdipper you are right about where to go. I am to go to the smoke mountains weekend of the 24th Sept. I called last night and they told me to call back next Wednesday to see if there is any gas at the stations. She told me they are out of gas almost everywhere and this is very far inland. Just like our area last year.
Otherwise all is ok in my neck of the state.
Have a great day!!!
John Z-hills

I made it to 21 days straight with rainfall now. The good news is the last three days the storms have only given me a glancing blow and I got a cumulative of .15". Looks like Florence is losing some power but gaining in size and attempting to spread her wrath far and wide. I believe she is going to suck some dry air into Florida the next few days lowering our rain chances overall. I am a little bit concerned by Isaac as I don't like storms that get into the western Carribbean this time of year. Hopefully shear and dry air will kill him off on his trip across.

Good news with Florence at Cat 2 this morning.  Hopefully she will continue to weaken...

Isaac continues unfavorable for development, which is good news as well.  Still something to watch -- we've seen stranger things happen.

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the
storm shortly before 0600 UTC indicated that the tropical storm has
weakened a little more.  Maximum flight-level winds were around 51
kt, while maximum SFMR winds were only 41 kt.  Both of these
support an initial intensity of 40 kt.  Wind measurements from the
plane also suggested that Isaac is close to opening up into a
tropical wave and its circulation is likely barely closed at the
surface.  Another P-3 mission is scheduled for this morning.

Isaac is nearly completely devoid of deep convection at the moment,
and is not trackable in radar data from Guadeloupe and Martinique.
Given the lack of deep convection to sustain the cyclone, continued
gradual weakening is expected.  However, given the extent of
40 mph winds observed by the NOAA plane, Isaac is still likely to
bring gusty conditions to many of the Leeward Islands through
this afternoon.  The dynamical guidance is now in fairly good
agreement on the intensity of Isaac for the next few days, and
nearly all of the models depict Isaac opening into a trough between
48 and 96 h.  The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Isaac
through day 4 in an attempt to maintain some continuity, but it
is very possible that Isaac will open into a trough sooner than
indicated.  Some of the dynamical models suggest that regeneration
could occur in the western Caribbean, however the predictability of
such an event is too low to explicitly show in the forecast at this
point.

Isaac is still moving quickly westward, with an initial motion of
275/15 kt.  Confidence in the track forecast remains high, and the
track guidance is tightly clustered through the forecast period.
Very little change was made to the track forecast, which continues
to closely follow the HCCA model.  As long as Isaac remains a
shallow cyclone, it should continue to be steered westward by the
low-level tradewind flow, even if, or when, it opens up into a
trough.


Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the Lesser Antilles this morning and afternoon, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe.

2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on these
islands today and interests on those islands should follow any
advice given by their local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 15.4N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  13/1800Z 15.5N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/0600Z 15.5N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  14/1800Z 15.5N  67.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  15/0600Z 15.4N  70.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  16/0600Z 15.6N  74.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  17/0600Z 16.9N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED