Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

by StAugustineFL Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:46 pm

Those are crazy rain amounts. I didn't have a rain gauge at the time but would guess TS Fay dumped over 15" in a day here back in 2008. Irma last year dumped 13.74" in a day. Debby 2012 around 12" in 3 days. I can't imagine 30" whether it was one day or two days. Hurricane Harvey dropped over 50" in portions of TX over a few days last year.

by sangria Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:58 pm

Bwahahahaha,,, The NHC guys are on the playground teeter totter!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located inland over extreme eastern South Carolina,
on Tropical Storm Helene, located about 100 miles west of the
western Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located about
900 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. The remnants of Issac, now a tropical wave, are located over the
central Caribbean Sea. Slow re-development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that
time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for
re-development. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast
over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure could form near Bermuda early next
week. Additional development, if any, is expected to be slow while
the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

by sangria Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:19 pm

This 63-hour radar loop shows #Florence's approach, landfall, and drift through #NorthCarolina & #SouthCarolina. Strong rainbands are still dumping heavy rain on NC. Full loop at https://t.co/vWICHS7kHl @UMiamiRSMAS @capitalweather @NWSEastern @NWSMoreheadCity @NWSWilmingtonNC pic.twitter.com/4ZvGMoo7Am
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) September 15, 2018

by BillsfaninSoFla Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:15 pm

Whew. No rain or clouds HOT!

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:29 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
348 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today - Monday)...
Tropical Storm Florence continues to linger over South
Carolina this morning, and is forecast to lift northwest
today and tonight. On the southern fringe of Florence, light
west to southwest winds will continue today across west
central and southwest Florida. Under this pattern, a few
morning showers are expected to develop over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and shift onshore, then scattered to
numerous storms will develop across the area in the
afternoon. The highest storm chances are expected to be over
the interior during the late afternoon as storms move
inland.

As high pressure builds into the area on Monday, winds will
turn to more southerly. This will allow for more broadly
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours then
dissipating overnight.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night - Saturday)...
Weak Atlantic ridging will gradually build into the northern
portion of the Florida Peninsula this week, setting up light
and generally easterly flow. The gradient wind speeds will
be light enough to allow for daily sea breeze circulations,
with winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon.
This pattern will favor scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing each day, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening. Storms will gradually dissipate each evening, but a
few showers and storms could linger over the coastal waters
overnight.

&&

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:32 am

Good early Sunday morning!!...dogs wanted their walks and its a very light rain off and on outside right now here..almost enough to wet the sidewalk lol..might be some better rain coming here this afternoon they say..well have a wonderful day everyone!!

by StAugustineFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:39 am

Cool radar loop san. The Wilmington area is still getting heavy rains. Insane.

Too far out in time to know whether this verifies but check out these afternoon temps the GFS is forecasting towards the end of the month. Not refreshing but getting close. Bills stays warm however down in SFL.

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 Dksul7F

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 Dksul7F

by sangria Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:01 am

This video shows just how good NHC did with the track of Florence; props to them!

It's already been said, but the forecast for #Florence by @NHC_Atlantic was pretty remarkable. Here's the entire forecast loop for Florence since it's initial formation off the African coast. pic.twitter.com/ywFQg49DMP
— Jacob DeFlitch (@WxDeFlitch) September 14, 2018

by sangria Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:03 am

Oh guys.... we had a horrible overnight low and high DPs... the heat index varies from 90-94 at 8am on this Sept morning... gag

by BillsfaninSoFla Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:23 am

Disgusting San! The end is near, light at the
End of the tunnel! Hang in there!

by sangria Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:35 am

Damn, the southern part of the state is enjoying decent HI. This graphic doesn't seem to be available for any of the other WFOs. https://www.weather.gov/mfl/analysisHI

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 6geQu9b

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 6geQu9b

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:54 am

whew just took a long walk in the park with my dogs, man is it HOT and HUMID today, good idea to stay indoors, real glad i finished my lawn and yard work during the week lol

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:55 am

NWS Melbourne FL........618 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.NOW...

...High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents Continues Today...

...So Will the Hot Temperatures and High Heat Indices...

Another day of scorching heat and uncomfortable humidity is on tap
for east central Florida, as afternoon highs reach close to 95
degrees across much of the area. Heat indices will top out between
101 and 107 degrees areawide.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be about 40 percent
over the coastal counties and 50 percent inland.

At the beaches, A High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents will continue
again today, with the threat highest through about 11 AM, and then
again starting around 530 PM and continuing past sunset.

$$

$$

by BillsfaninSoFla Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:14 am

My sister in law in Englewood says the red tide is so bad that just walking from your car to the house is rough. Definitely an inside day she says. Hurting the businesses etc.

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:27 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:My sister in law in Englewood says the red rise is so bad that just walking from your car to the house is rough. Definitely an inside day she says. Hurting the businesses etc.

yeah this red tide is awful

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:04 pm

by LargoFL Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:05 pm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

FLZ036-161830-
Alachua FL-
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM EDT...

At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
University Of Florida, or near Gainesville, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning can be expected. Postpone outdoor
activities promptly. Go quickly inside a completely enclosed
building. Unplug electronic devices and appliances as they are
susceptible to power surges and may be damaged by nearby lightning
strikes.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, University Of Florida, Gainesville Airport, Newnans Lake
and Waldo.

LAT...LON 2959 8241 2985 8229 2984 8228 2985 8226
2979 8212 2955 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 206DEG 17KT 2963 8233

$$

ENYEDI

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:46 am

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:50 am

Good Monday Morning folks! and it looks like 5-6 days to the Beginning of our FALL season!!..cant wait untill Mother Nature says..ok ok im starting the Fall season for you Floridians lol..sure will be nice when our high temps and Humidity start to fall down huh..whew yesterday was awful around my area...well have a wonderful day folks!!

by waterdipper Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:43 am

Good Monday morning. Had a beautiful weekend up here in Levy County. My streak of rain days ended at 22 and I have now started a streak of rain free days and I am now at 3. Hope they continue for the next week or so. However, how humid it has been leads me to believe the rainy season is going to continue at least for a bit more. Normally by mid September the rainy season starts to come to an end and by October it is full blown over. I am curious to see how much longer it lasts and how soon will the humidity level drop as this summer's humidity has been extreme.

On another note, I am not a fan of the NWS's new rain chance map. They probably need to rethink it and go back to a map with just POP rounded to the nearest 10th. That detailed of a graphic doesn't make much sense for a rainfall forecast.

by JRnOldsmar Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:52 am

Good news with the dry-out period, WD. Same here. I was due a few days of dry to get rid of the sogginess. Hot and humid though. I'll be looking for that first front to come through with the equinox. Hope it comes sooner, rather than later. And for those of you in the Tampa Bay Times readership area, you have a 34% chance of rain today!! The exactness certainly helps you understand it better!!

Florence was a non-event for Summerville, SC.
And I'm already tired of the term: Cat 4 Surge. No such measurement exists and every storm has different dynamics to work with.

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:20 am

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:33 am

OH NO..good thing this is 2 weeks away, might NOT happen or goes elsewhere,goes to carolina's.. CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_uv850_us_50

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_uv850_us_50

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:34 am

wish we had another model other than GFS that went out 360 hours too

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:45 am

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:43 pm

LargoFL wrote:OH NO..good thing this is 2 weeks away, might NOT happen or goes elsewhere,goes to carolina's..

UM, definitely NO THANK YOU to that!!!

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:44 pm

Agree with everyone, darn has it been hot, very hot. Miserable.

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:47 pm

and no rain. Unlike a lot of you, we could used some rain down here. And not from that thing above.

by StPeteFLwx Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:21 pm

Yuck. Hot, no breeze.

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 09171810

by sangria Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:39 pm

I'm ready for a vacation to Canada!!!!

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:40 pm

Oh yuck St. Pete! Could Florence be directly/indirectly causing this by sucking moisture or whatever out of Florida?

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:46 pm

sangria wrote:I'm ready for a vacation to Canada!!!!

some one from canada posted somewhere that it was HOT up there as well.

by LargoFL Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:47 pm

so Hot and HUMID here also..i might try staying up all night and sleeping all day haha..dogs would go crazy on me.

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:37 pm

lol Largo. Yes Largo, your pups would go crazy lol..

by sangria Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:12 pm

I need to order firewood and the thought of it just makes me sweat even more!!

by sangria Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:21 pm

I'm seeing reports of some very damaging tornado activity in Richmond, VA from Florence.

by sangria Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:23 pm

MUST WATCH & SHARE: A tornado ripped the roof off an auto parts store in #Richmond, VA. We're tracking tornado warnings for Virginia on-air and online. #Tornado #VAwx #severe #Virginia pic.twitter.com/8zgzhQPAVH
— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) September 17, 2018

by sangria Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:25 pm

BREAKING: At least one funnel cloud seen on campus near Robins Stadium. pic.twitter.com/HKrV31MyMB
— The Collegian (@URCollegian) September 17, 2018

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:59 pm

Oh my! Thanks San

by sangria Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:53 pm

Okay, this is pretty cool......

#Harvey #Florence #radar 100 hours pic.twitter.com/B1V3r51cIy
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) September 17, 2018

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:15 pm

Yes San it is

by BillsfaninSoFla Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:22 pm

Generator arrived today. No dents in box. XP 12000 duel/propane or gas. Hubby has to put together and get cord. Just a relief, perhaps won't need i hope, but after being without during Irma.

by LargoFL Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:37 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Generator arrived today. No dents in box. XP 12000 duel/propane or gas. Hubby has to put together and get cord. Just a relief, perhaps won't need i hope, but after being without during Irma.

fantastic..good luck with it Billsfan, just hope you'll never have to use it huh BUT..your prepared to and thats what counts!!

by LargoFL Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:41 am

well dogs had their early morning walk lol..gee 80 degree's outside already,hurry up Fall huh..well another HOT-Humid day for us and NWS is saying just a slightly better chance of a shower etc later on today in the Tampa area........have a wonderful day everyone!

by LargoFL Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:49 am

NWS TAMPA...505 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today, generally shifting
inland through the afternoon and evening. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall,
and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Several area rivers remain at or near flood stage. Any additional
rainfall today may prolong or worsen existing flooding depending
on where the heaviest rains fall. Residents living along rivers or
faster flowing streams should remain aware of water levels and be
ready to move to higher ground should conditions warrant.

by LargoFL Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 am

well first week of October lets keep a good eye on anything down in the Caribbean ok Billsfan..the GFS model is sniffing something building down there..way too early to believe just yet but..it DID sniff out Florence weeks in advance..so i'll keep an eye out also ok

by BillsfaninSoFla Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:43 am

LargoFL wrote:well first week of October lets keep a good eye on anything down in the Caribbean ok Billsfan..the GFS model is sniffing something building down there..way too early to believe just yet but..it DID sniff out Florence weeks in advance..so i'll keep an eye out also ok

Thanks Largo. Seems like the GFS has been pretty good this year!

by LargoFL Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:49 am

FV3 also has it there 1st week of october.................................................. CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 7 Fv3p_mslp_uv850_us_65

by BillsfaninSoFla Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:03 pm

Good grief it's HOT. Doesn't Mother Nature know that it is supposed to be winding summer down?

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