FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND THE HOLIDAY SEASON WEATHER

so far just warm and dry by me. had about 3 rain drops earlier this morning lol

it looks like the TORNADO watch goes all the way to the state capital area..stay alert Jenny....

well its just about 4pm saturday..sun is full out here..temps are 80 or low 80's and very breezy and windy here..no rain close to me so far..lets see how this plays out overnight huh.

NWS Melbourne...........248 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

.NOW...

...Noticeably Warm Afternoon With A Few Showers...

Through the afternoon, conditions will be warm as southerly winds
prompt temperatures to rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s along
with a measure of higher humidity returning to Central Florida. It
will be warmest for the Space and Treasure Coasts having more breaks
in the variable cloud cover.

Although isolated showers are forecast for most places into the
evening, the best chance for a passing shower will be north and west
of the Interstate 4 corridor. Yet, the chance for lightning will be
quite limited, and mainly confined to the Panhandle and North
Florida.

$$

Panhandle TORNADO WARNING about an hour ago..stay alert NorthFL and Panhandle.......

Have had a slow drip of rain for a few hours with a heavier burst here and there.  Total up to now is .34.  By slow drip so light one can walk outdoors for 10 minutes and not worry about getting too wet.  

Off to watch the Bama/Georgia game.......

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for Big Bend of
Florida...and the adjacent coastal waters.

NWS for Saint Augustine..this Afternoon Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 72. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Good morning.  Looking at the SPC storm reports it seems there were no confirmed tornado's in the pandhandle or south GA yesterday.  Very impressive rainfall totals.  I saw one CoCoRaHS report of over 7".   Illinois had a cluster of tornados.  A couple dozen up there.

NWS JAX mentions the possible storm for next weekend in their discussion. I just have of one those "gut feelings" this could be a humdinger.



Sat-Sun...Dynamic El Nino pattern brings the next frontal system
to the local area next weekend. Warm front expected to lift across
the local area Sat with a return of rain chances and above normal
temperatures across at least NE FL as highs warm into the low/mid
70s. Both GFS/ECMWF advertised surface low crossing SE GA late Sat
through Sat night, trailing surface cold front an attendant squall
line across the local forecast area through Sun morning. Potential
for strong/severe storms will exist with this system due to strong
dynamics around southern surface low, especially across SE
GA/Suwannee River Valley where best low level moisture will nose
inland from the Gulf into Sat night.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Looking at the SPC storm reports it seems there were no confirmed tornado's in the pandhandle or south GA yesterday.  Very impressive rainfall totals.  I saw one CoCoRaHS report of over 7".   Illinois had a cluster of tornados.  A couple dozen up there.

NWS JAX mentions the possible storm for next weekend in their discussion.  I just have of one those "gut feelings" this could be a humdinger.



Sat-Sun...Dynamic El Nino pattern brings the next frontal system
to the local area next weekend. Warm front expected to lift across
the local area Sat with a return of rain chances and above normal
temperatures across at least NE FL as highs warm into the low/mid
70s. Both GFS/ECMWF advertised surface low crossing SE GA late Sat
through Sat night, trailing surface cold front an attendant squall
line across the local forecast area through Sun morning. Potential
for strong/severe storms will exist with this system due to strong
dynamics around southern surface low, especially across SE
GA/Suwannee River Valley where best low level moisture will nose
inland from the Gulf into Sat night.

..good morning Aug,yes you folks up there might get some high winds too if GFS verifies whew.

This is from Larry Cosgrove who is a well-respected met.

I do not often use the words "ominous" and "potentially dangerous" to describe a storm threat. But we could have a long-lived doozy of a storm that tracks from the International Dateline into Baja California, then through Texas and the Gulf Coast, turning up along the Atlantic shoreline between December 6 - 11. Since the numerical models will be shifting around trying to get a handle on this disturbance, it makes no sense to plot an exact track scenario. But there is some consistency in the numerical models in that in every run, at least one scheme shows a Miller A system with the variety of severe thunderstorms (S TX into FL), heavy rainfall (in some cases past 6" total) and a mantle of ice and snow in much of the cold sector of the storm from the lower Great Plains into Appalachia, and -possibly- sneaking into the Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA. All of this accompanied by a fairly vast Arctic regime which, with any luck, may moderate and lift out after the storm passes east of New England and the Maritime Provinces. This system is worthy of close scrutiny, even if the computer schemes lose the outline of the storm during the next few runs (which is often the case during the early medium range).

good Sunday morning folks..well warm again today and local met says a couple of cooler and cold nights coming mid week sometime..then afterwards a warm up again and next weekends storm-rain and wind looks to be another northern Florida event BUT..we always watch them closely huh..well enjoy your Sunday folks..have a wonderful day!!

NWS Miami...902 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk for rip currents on all South
Florida beaches.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across Palm Beach County and near Lake Okeechobee. Lightning
is the primary threat.

Visibility: Patchy fog is possible over western interior areas late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

The threat for rip currents will remain moderate on Atlantic beaches
Monday and possibly into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Oh good grief. It’s almost 90 today. Seriously Ma Nature???

Wow Aug. What Larrry Cosgrove said.

Hey Largo! Hope you are well! Again thanks for your posts. I really wish Jenny would check in and let’s us know she and her family are ok. She’s had a rough few months weather wise.

I wonder if Ed still lives in Pine Island? Miss his stories lol.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hey Largo!   Hope you are well!   Again thanks for your posts. I really wish Jenny would check in and let’s us know she and her family are ok.  She’s had a rough few months weather wise.  

I wonder if Ed still lives in Pine Island?  Miss his stories lol.  

yes i miss them also..whew its HOT down by you huh..but another few days of cool temps os coming sometime this week...good lock ok

well they are saying a good chance for rain in my area..i sure could use some here................

AUG...maybe This is the storm he was mentioning??.....................................

Tampa bay area 7-day forecast................................................

Good Monday Morning Folks!!..well local mets are saying a good chance for rain by me..good!!!...well have a great day everyone!!

gee i just read Kirk Douglas of movie fame...is 102 years old wow..i dont think i want to live THAT long..would you??

Good Monday morning. Not a very nice weekend here, but we made the most of it. Rained all day Saturday (1.2" total) and yesterday it was very windy and pea soup fog set in and hasn't let up since. Looks like today will turn wet with the frontal passage then colder for the rest of the week.

waterdipper wrote:Good Monday morning. Not a very nice weekend here, but we made the most of it. Rained all day Saturday (1.2" total) and yesterday it was very windy and pea soup fog set in and hasn't let up since. Looks like today will turn wet with the frontal passage then colder for the rest of the week.

good morning WD, sorry to hear that..no rain etc by me..the models are hinting at a strong storm,especially wind wise in about 4-5 days hitting up there in northern florida..so far anyway..some of them have 60+ MPH winds..but..still early yet and could change ok..hope your weather gets better

yeah Models are hinting at bad weather for us in Florida this coming weekend...........

hey..you north Florida folks need to share all the rain with us downstate..no hogging ok LOL..gee.

NWS Melbourne...1100 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

.NOW...

Scattered showers and storms will develop and move quickly eastward
through Lake County and toward the I-4 corridor and Volusia County
coast through early afternoon. Isolated stronger storms will be
possible, with the main threats being dangerous lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy downpours.

Breezy southwest winds and partly sunny skies will allow
temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 80s early this afternoon,
especially from the Orlando area southward. These values will again
be near record highs for this date.

$$

$$

Weitlich

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1110 AM EST MON DEC 3 2018

FLC019-031-109-031800-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.W.0050.181203T1610Z-181203T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Johns FL-Clay FL-Duval FL-
1110 AM EST MON DEC 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in...
Northern St. Johns County in northeastern Florida...
North central Clay County in northeastern Florida...
Southern Duval County in northeastern Florida...

* Until 100 PM EST.

* At 1107 AM EST, emergency management reported flooding with heavy
rain in McCoys Creek area. The heavy rain will cause additional
street flooding across southern Duval and surrounding urban areas.
2 to 3 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jacksonville, Orange Park, Unf, Mandarin, Ponte Vedra Beach,
Arlington, Neptune Beach, Sawgrass, Baymeadows and Ortega.

Additional rainfall amounts up to an inch and a half are possible in
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

Jenny-AUG and maybe WD,,stay alert ok....................Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Mon Dec 03 2018

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes exists today over
portions of northern Florida.

...North FL...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing MRGL risk outlook.
Scattered thunderstorms continue to affect north FL along a surface
baroclinic zone. This activity will persist today and tonight, with
sufficient vertical shear and MLCAPE for some risk of gusty/damaging
wind gusts or perhaps a tornado through the afternoon. However,
low-level winds are slowly veering and weakening. This should
lessen shear/convergence and decrease the overall severe risk with
time.

..Hart/Bentley.. 12/03/2018

It’s like rain has been an all or nothing event for Florida.

Good afternoon.  The flood warning Largo posted at 11:42 was at my office location in south Jax but I was indoors.  Hardly a drop here at the house but it did rain nicely again yesterday.  Good start to December with roughly 1.3".

If anyone wants cooler temps, just walk into my work area.  I swear it must be 65 in there.  I am COLD every day.  Gonna have to start bringing a jacket to wear at my desk. I joked I want to be relocated to the break room. It has to easily be 10 degrees warmer in there.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  The flood warning Largo posted at 11:42 was at my office location in south Jax but I was indoors.  Hardly a drop here at the house but it did rain nicely again yesterday.  Good start to December with roughly 1.3".

If anyone wants cooler temps, just walk into my work area.  I swear it must be 65 in there.  I am COLD every day.  Gonna have to start bringing a jacket to wear at my desk.  I joked I want to be relocated to the break room.  It has to easily be 10 degrees warmer in there.

yes a jacket or sweater is a good idea Aug

everything is soaking wet outside finally, I got a good 15-20 minute Heavy down pouring rain last evening around dinner time..and now this early morning i just got 0.41 so now i await the coming cold front, mets say temps will slowly fall thru the day..its 76 here just after 4am, dogs walked and im a happy camper lol,,i hope eveyone who needs rain, gets some...there's a line of rain/storms just south of me heading southward.....good luck billsfan..

000
FXUS62 KTBW 040817
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
317 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday)...
The cold front in place across the nature coast this
morning will continue to slowly settle south through the
area today, with scattered rain chances gradually ending
from north to south and fog/low clouds lifting behind the
front. Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the
area as high pressure builds in behind the front for tonight
and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s north to the
lower 80s south this afternoon, and in the upper 50s to
around 70 Wednesday afternoon. Lows tonight in the upper 30s
north to the lower 60s south.

Good Early Tuesday Morning Folks!! nice and wet outside as I write this..hopefully it will make it down to billsfan and south florida..now today-tomorrow a cold front slips down the state..enjoy...have a great day everyone!!

hey john if you havent left yet..use extra caution..if this REAL heavy FOG is by your area also..whew..its real bad here,,be safe ok

Billsfasn...ues extra care driving this morning ok..be safe...................Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Miami FL
502 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-041315-
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-
Inland Collier-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-
Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Including the cities of Palmdale, Moore Haven, Clewiston,
LaBelle, Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Pahokee, South Bay,
Belle Glade, Wellington, Lion Country Safari,
South County Regional Park, Palm Springs, Florida Gardens,
Aberdeen, Boca West, Naples, Immokalee,
Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Markham Park, Coconut Creek,
Coral Springs, Tamarac, Sunrise, Plantation, Davie, Cooper City,
Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Homestead, Florida City,
Redland, Miccosukee Resort, Kendale Lakes, West Kendall,
Country Walk, Shark Valley, Miami, Miami Gardens, Miami Lakes,
Hialeah, Doral, South Miami, Kendall, Cutler Ridge, Flamingo,
Jupiter, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Pompano Beach,
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Beach, Hollywood Beach,
Aventura, Miami Beach, Miami Shores, Downtown Miami, Cutler Bay,
Homestead Bayfront Park, and Everglades National Park
502 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

.NOW...
Fog has developed over inland portions of South Florida this
morning. Some areas could drop down to 1 mile or less in
visibility through sunrise. Motorists should exercise caution
while driving, use low beam headlights, and slow down when they
encounter a bank of fog.

$$

RAG

NWS MIAMI...400 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible on today with a
passing cold front. Lightning is the primary hazard.

Visibility: Locally dense fog, focused over the inland portions of
South Florida, could bring visibilities below one mile.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Behind the cold front, colder air could bring wind chill values in
the 30s and 40s to portions of Southwest Florida on Thursday morning.
Glades County could wind chill values fall into the mid to upper 30s.

Persistent easterly winds later in the week could bring elevated rip
current risks along the Atlantic beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

RAG

ok folks drive safely ok..

gee Aug, that coming storm sunday might give some good rain amounts..does that met still think it May have some bad winds with it too??

Euro has a strong storm crossing Florida Sunday then up the east coast...................

well just for myself, this saturday im taking in things outside that can blow around sunday, real glad i didnt hang my XMAS Lights outside yet,BUT hopefully this storm will just be a rainmaker (which we need) and just a lil wind huh..stay tuned this weekend to YOUR local met's warnings ok

Good morning all. Got another .50" from the rain and storms yesterday. The rain came in quick hitting lines yesterday with the storm that hit yesterday right at dusk a pretty good one. Strong winds and some intense lightning. That gives me 1.7" so far for Dec. Cool and breezy now. Looks like 30's with a chance of frost the next few nights then the big storm over the weekend before the next cool down for next week. I know only north FL is getting the heavy rainfall so far, but the last few fronts sure feel like El Nino to me. Anybody hear if they are going to declare an El nino anytime soon?