One after Another Continued

After several areas of Low pressure developed over the past several weeks the trend promises to continue. This next system as outlined in the previous blog last week promises to create havoc across the Plain States and the Mid West.

Here is the set up at this hour.

From last blog.



This was my thinking last week and still continues to be the same somewhat, with the exception of the Surface Low developing just a tad further to the South. With this Low developing further to the South the impacts will cover a lot more area. Most importantly, there will be a SEVERE ICING event that will unfold. This Low will be able to tap into more GOM moisture which will be drawn Northward along with a warm nose or air mass which will over shoots or get between two layers of extreme cold air.

Here is the mechanics of an developing ice storm;

Ice storms occur when a layer of warm air is between two layers of cold air. Frozen precipitation melts to rain while falling into the warm air layer, and then begins to refreeze in the cold layer below the inversion. If the precipitate refreezes while still in the air, it will land on the ground as sleet. Alternatively, the liquid droplets can continue to fall without freezing, passing through the cold air just above the surface. This thin layer of air then cools the rain to a temperature below freezing. However, the drops themselves do not freeze, a phenomenon called supercooling (or forming "supercooled drops"). When the supercooled drops strike ground or anything else below 32 °F (e.g power lines, tree branches, aircraft), a layer of ice accumulates as the cold water drips off, forming a slowly thickening film of ice, hence freezing rain.

This is the dangerous end result





Ice storm can be very damaging and I think this next storm the icing event will be the legacy of this storm. Here is where I see the most significant effect of icing.



HPC



Areas all around this highlighted area will receive some sleet and freezing rain also. I just highlighted the most dangerous portion of the storm as I see it.

Now, lets look at the snowy side.

As you can see the Storm has already come ashore California bringing rain and snow



The wintry side of the storm will affect areas from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest during the second half of this week after hitting areas from California to Utah, Arizona and New Mexico with snow, wind and cold.

Locally blinding, heavy snow will fall over the passes of the Rockies. As the storm pulls away from the Rockies, it will redevelop into a surface low. While this Low will not very impressive, as far as pressure goes, it will be enough to cause plenty of havoc.

Here is part of the Wallop Zone with wide spread areas receiving 12 to 18 inches and up to 24" in isolated areas.



This area what highlighted for Aug since his family lives in that general area. The heaviest snow will be shared between Nebraska and Kansas. Here is the latest GFS



The current SREF Model Plumes are averaging 12 to 15" for Omaha. Going to get interesting.

On a positive note, this snow will really help out the farmers in the long run in these areas affected.



We will discuss more about the snow as it unfolds.

There WILL be a SEVERE Side to this Storm also. This will begin in Texas and move along the Gulf Coast States and into the Deep South.



I will save the animations for a future time.



As time moves on, Gomey may have to keep a blind eye to the West. There could be a tornado threat to areas that have seen several tornadoes over the past couple of months. I will outline much more as I get time.

At least 18 people injured in Kansas City, #Missouri, gas explosion. One block high of end shopping/restaurant district on fire.





According to new reports, three (3) people are unaccounted for. Eighteen (18) people transported to area hospitals.

Live feed (news)

http://www.kctv5.com/category/215384/kctv5-livestream-mva1

Fire Rescue Feed
4 ALARM FIRE
02/19/13 19:44 (KANSAS CITY, MO - DELAYED) UPDATE: EXPLOSION @ JJS RESTAURANT, MULTI STY RESTAURANT, APX. 10 INJS, AT LEAST 3 SERIOUS, DEF. OPS [ILL113]

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=7494

Edit: They took down the feed

Weather Briefing

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=camtasiaBriefing

Major Winter Storm to Affect the Plains

A powerful storm system developing over the Rockies will move into the central U.S. on Wednesday, bringing heavy snow & strong winds to the central Plains. Snowfall in excess of a foot is expected across parts of Nebraska & Kansas through Thursday, with freezing rain possible for parts of the southern Plains into the mid & lower Mississippi Valley. Further to the south, severe weather is expected.

Thanks for the new post, e......

CLICK TO ANIMATE

BAM

75 of 93 counties in Nebraska now under a *Winter Storm Warning*. That's 81 percent of that state!

The ENTIRE state of Kansas is now under a *Winter Storm Warning* for Wednesday!! (total of 105 counties)

The UP is having a rough go at it this morning according to what I am reading.

15:1 Ratio is what the BAM suite is initializing the storm on.

I'd say that's smack dab, in your "whallop" zone!!!!

sangria wrote:I'd say that's smack dab, in your "whallop" zone!!!!

Who's the man. LMAO

frozen precip spreading into west TN.......

click pic, to animate

emcf30 wrote:

sangria wrote:I'd say that's smack dab, in your "whallop" zone!!!!

Who's the man. LMAO

.....oh, and........

knjnbjbji;bnj;bnj;kbnj;onjo;nj;n

Now this is nasty.

Road conditions just west of Colby, KS. for the little ripple of energy ejected from the ULL in Arizona. This is just a preview of whats to come tomorrow

No spring training today in the Desert.

Graupel falls in Phoenix

Thundersnow/sleet has been occurring over the past half hour just west and southwest of Dodge City

State of Emergency declared across Kansas due to the unfolding major winter storm

http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/Governor-Declares-State-Of-Emergency-As-Winter-Storm-Moves-Through-192128691.html?llsms=95701&c=y

For Aug...



Oh, by the way. Do the math for 15:1 Ration for snow fall in Kansas and Nebraska

108 of 114 counties in Missouri now under a *Winter Storm Warning*
North Platte: city declares *Snow Emergency*

Storms beginning to Fire. Going to get dangerous around 2 to 3 for Texas.

Super Storm

Plume for Lincoln

Plume
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

Loop
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130220&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GRI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=5&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

DPS officer hurt in head-on crash with truck in Forest Lakes

The DPS officer was driving westbound on Arizona 260 when a truck driving eastbound appeared to lose control.

By Brittany Elena Morris The Arizona Republic-12 News Breaking News Team Wed Feb 20, 2013 8:28 PM

An Arizona Department of Public Safety officer was injured Wednesday evening in a weather-related collision in Forest Lakes on Arizona 260 in northern Arizona, officials said.

The officer was driving westbound on Arizona 260 when a truck driving eastbound appeared to lose control. The roads were covered in snow and ice, Chief Dave Rodriguez of Forest Lakes Fire Department said. Forest Lakes received over a foot of snow Wednesday, he said.

Arizona 260 is a two-lane, two-way road with no median. The DPS officer attempted to maneuver out of the vehicle’s way, but was unsuccessful. The out-of-control vehicle hit the officer head-on.

A motorcycle in the back of the truck at the time of the collision was ejected.

The officer was transported to a hospital in nearby Show Low for injuries in his neck, back and legs, Rodriguez said.

The individual driving the truck was treated with minor injuries and was released to DPS officers. The circumstances of the collision are currently under investigation.

Hmmm, where have I seen this before.

Snow totals so far. This is not even the main event yet. Could see the projected amounts bumped up due to this snowfall.

Snow Totals - 5 inches in Smith, Kan; 6 inches in Ellis, Kan.; 7 inches in Gove, Kan.; 2.5 inches in Tulsa, Okla.

Snow, whether you love it or hate it, is something that most of us have experience with and understand quite well. Small snow crystals form inside a cloud at cold temperatures and then fall to the ground and "stick" when it's at or below freezing. When a lot of them begin to accumulate we all know that it involves shoveling, school cancellations, and slushy or snowy roads. Pretty simple, right?

Here's where things get tricky and why wintry weather events like tomorrow's are difficult to forecast. When the atmosphere isn't below freezing at all the levels where snowflakes fall through they begin to melt. In situations like the warm front that's going to affect us tomorrow, warm air begins moving into the area aloft. Assuming that it's still at or below freezing at the surface, when enough of this warm air moves in a snow event can transition to an ice event with sleet and/or freezing rain.



Freezing rain is more of a trouble-maker because we're dealing with liquid rain that freezes on contact with the ground. Much like sleet we have a layer of air aloft that's above freezing. This time though it's a larger layer and the snowflake spends more time falling through it. This causes the snowflake to melt all the way into a raindrop. The raindrop falls to the ground and creates a glaze of ice on everything it touches since the surface and a layer of air just above it are still below freezing. Quite often you'll see elevated objects like trees begin to pick up ice accumulation before roads since ground temperatures can take some time to respond to the below-freezing air temperatures.



You can see why we look over so much data when figuring out whether we'll get snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a mix of all three. A degree of difference either here at the surface or in the atmosphere aloft can mean a whole different ballgame.

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman

Showers and thunderstorms rapidly developing across TX panhandle/caprock will move into western N TX and western/NW OK soon

Woot!! Great explanation on the different layers of temp, during winter events, e !!!

Heavy convective bands setting up this morning. Thunder-snow, thunder-sleet and thunder-freezing rain being reported in multiple areas

Accumulating freezing rain already beginning in Paragould, AR this morning

Check out the Panhandle for this weekend

Downtown Wichita as we speak
(Wichita has already reported 9 inches of snow......most of which has fallen since midnight. Heavier band there moving northward up turnpike.)

Webcams
http://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/

http://www.kuathletics.com/multimedia/hoglundcam.htmlhttp://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/
http://www2.wamtelco.com/?CM-WebCam
http://weather.weatherbug.com/KS/Wichita-weather/weather-cams/local-cams.htmlhttp://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF
KS...NE...IA...AND IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 211216Z - 211715Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM NE KS TO NW/N CENTRAL MO THROUGH
15-18Z. JUST SE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVING AN
EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NEWD
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS A 1-2 HOURS FASTER THAN NAM/SREF AND HIGH-RES
DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR. A WARM NOSE IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER /SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MIX
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SE KS INTO SW MO...AND THIS MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL MO THIS
MORNING. FARTHER NW...PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW /PER THE 12Z TOP
SOUNDING/. A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
NEWD ACROSS NE KS/NW MO THROUGH MID MORNING...REACHING N CENTRAL/NE
MO BY LATE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY INCLUDE THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BY 13-15Z...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THOUGH THE THERMAL STRATIFICATION IS
NOT NECESSARILY IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK UPRIGHT CAPE IN THE MIDLEVELS.

This is what Boston looked like from the air after the big snow

Kansas was the epicenter of the winter storm, with parts of the state buried under 14 inches of powdery snow, but winter storm warnings stretched from eastern Colorado through Illinois. Freezing rain and sleet were forecast for southern Missouri, southern Illinois and Arkansas. St. Louis was expected to get all of the above — a treacherous mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Several accidents were blamed on icy and slushy roadways, including two fatal accidents. Most schools in Kansas and Missouri, and many in neighboring states, were closed. Legislatures shut down early in Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Nebraska and Iowa.

By midmorning Thursday, the snowfall was so heavy that Kansas City International Airport shut down. About 90 flights were also cancelled at Lambert Airport in St. Louis, where sleet and ice began falling late-morning.

A beautiful lenticular cloud over Twin Sisters in Rocky Mountain National Park

iowawx.com with community reports of snowfall.....also has the surrounding NWS WFO twitter feeds....

http://iowawx.com/2013/02/22/snow-totals-february-21st-22nd-2013/





Updated snowfall reports from Twin Cities NWS WFO...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=snowtotals

LOL..... NWS Omaha has their own Youtube channel, now.......

https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSOmaha/videos

Let's not forget the southern end, of the storm....... SPC Storm Report


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html