Mid April and it is hot as hades, in FL !!!

Morning all.......

e has been kinda busy, so we haven't had a new weather blog, in a while........ and we are really bad, about posting our weather obs, etc..... , in the chat room. Soooooooo........time for a new blog !!!!

I won't even TRY to begin to post any of the "why" or "where" or "how bad" with regard to forecasting, hopefully, e and Gomey will find some time, to pop in here, for that........ Maybe even Aug, will throw his two cents in!!!

What I will do, is my "I've had too much coffee" here, and post all of y'alls NWS WFO (weather forecast office) discussions, sat loops, etc......and a few tidbits, from the SPC.

Since we are in the midst of some pretty severe weather, this week, I'll start with some items, related to it.....


Current SPC....



Today's Day1 Convective Outlook - the moderate risk cover a very large swath, of geography......from Alabama to Michigan......

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html



PSU Radar loops....
Southeast Radar - click HERE for animated loop



North Central - click HERE for animated loop




SPC Storm Reports
Click here for detailed report



Current WW (weather watches)
Click here for WW page, with details, of each

Oh....and as to the title, of the blog.......

It is freakin HOT, here in Pasco County, FL........ from the PWS, about a mile or so, south of me..... the humidty levels the past three days, are the lowest I've seen, in quite some time....

Mesoscale Discussion 516



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...

VALID 180929Z - 181100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF WW 121 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...IS LOCATED ALONG
THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 60 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE FORTH WORTH WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS IS LIKELY BEING
INHIBITED BY A CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS PRESENT EWD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/18/2013

The last "upper air" soundings were from 00Z, so, they are about 10 hours old, right now......


This is a contour plot of CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy. CAPE represents the amount of energy a parcel might have if it were lifted. Often this reflects the strength of updrafts within a thunderstorm. CAPE values of greater than 2000 represent enough energy to produce thunderstorms. A value greater than 3000 represents enough energy to produce bold thunderstorms. Values <1000 denote a reletively stable atmosphere.





This is a contour plot of lifted index with a contour interval of 2 degrees Celsius. The LI field shows instability in the atmosphere by lifting a parcel of air from the surface to 500 mb and comparing its temperature to that of the environment. Where LIs are less than 0, thunderstorms are possible. The lower the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of -4 or lower indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values >10 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear.





This is a contour plot of precipitable water in inches. The contour interval is .2 inches. Precipitatable water reflects the amount of water contained in a vertical column above the surface if it were all precipitated out. This is a good indicator of how much rain or snow might fall as a result of a thunderstorm or low pressure system.





This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear.






This is a contour plot of helicity which is the amount of storm relative rotation/shear in the atmosphere. Helicity is used to indicate where rotation/shear is high enough to allow thunderstorms to organize into severe or supercell storms. In the lack of helicity, storms develop vertically and the precipitation will snuff out the updraft killing the thunderstorm. Severe storms need helicity to maintain an organized structure allowing the storm to develop to severe limits. A value of 400-500 is often needed to produce severe storms. Often this is used in conjunction with CAPE to determine severe storm location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT

* AT 622 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROTEM AND RUETER.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES BULL SHOALS LAKE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
707 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 704 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBERSON HOLLOW...OR 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF GREEN FOREST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
ROBERSON HOLLOW... OMAHA... BURLINGTON...
SHAW LAKE DAM... CRICKET... CREST...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 704 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIDGEDALE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES BULL SHOALS LAKE AND TABLE ROCK LAKE.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 545 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF STL. THESE STORMS HAVE BEGUN SHOWING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS MORNING AS THESE STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HART

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...MUCH OF INDIANA...SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181225Z - 181400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO
INDIANA AND SWRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING...WITH SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY NECESSARY...ONE
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL WITHIN A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES AHEAD
OF THE LINE OVER ERN IL AND WRN INDIANA. IN ADDITION...EARLY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INDIANA...WHICH
WILL FURTHER AID IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH CONTINUED
DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 60+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SWLY
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/18/2013

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181226Z - 181430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A DIFFUSE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO INTO WESTERN AR. AHEAD OF THE STORMS...A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT. THE 12Z LZK RAOB SHOWS
RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE RATHER EARLY TODAY. THE OBSERVED WINDS ALSO SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS. IF TRENDS SHOW THAT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..HART.. 04/18/2013

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW
MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...

DISCUSSION...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF A
PRE-COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
REGION. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AHEAD OF THE LINE...BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

TORNADO WATCH 125 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-005-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-
045-049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-
097-103-105-107-109-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-141-145-
147-149-182200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.130418T1425Z-130418T2200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY
CALHOUN CLARK CLAY
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL


ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-182200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.130418T1425Z-130418T2200Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON


INC051-125-129-147-163-173-182200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.130418T1425Z-130418T2200Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GIBSON PIKE POSEY
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK


KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-182200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.130418T1425Z-130418T2200Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN
FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON
HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MARSHALL
MCCRACKEN UNION WEBSTER


MOC017-023-031-035-069-091-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-203-207-
223-182200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.130418T1425Z-130418T2200Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN HOWELL
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD
WAYNE


ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...SGF...MEG...

The Kamala warning page, must be having problems.......I updated the other other widget from Swift, which appears to operating correctly.....

Not a lot, but some impressive wind reports, on the SPC....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER MI...WRN OH...INDIANA EXCEPT NWRN
PORTIONS...SRN IL...SERN MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 122...123...124...

VALID 181614Z - 181815Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADER

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
122...123...124...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINDER WW 122 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z WITH ADDITION
OF REYNOLDS COUNTY MO...PER COORD W/LSX WFO. WWS 123-124 MAY BE
CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SRN PORTIONS WW 124 AHEAD OF CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM WW 122.
PORTIONS OH E OF WW 123 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW BASED ON
CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF TSTMS FROM LM SHORE OF LOWER MI SSWWD ACROSS
NWRN INDIANA TO SERN MO -- WELL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC SFC COLD FRONT AND
LOW -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREAS. NET EWD
MOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 25 KT...WITH CONSIDERABLE LOCAL
VARIABILITY...AND NEWD 40-50 KT SPEEDS ON EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH OCNL
TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN EITHER QLCS CIRCULATIONS OR EMBEDDED/BOW-ECHO
MESOVORTICES.

BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT
ATTM. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION AND DIABATIC
SFC HEATING E OF CONVECTION WILL YIELD FAVORABLE BUOYANCY -- I.E.
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. THAT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH NARROW AREA OF
45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES THAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD GENERALLY
IN STEP WITH MOST OF CONVECTIVE PLUME. HOWEVER...FASTER SEGMENTS OF
SQUALL LINE MAY OUTPACE OPTIMAL MOISTENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS NERN INDIANA AND SERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC
INFLECTION POINT AND COLLOCATED MESOLOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SERN MO
OZARKS...MOVING NEWD ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY TOWARD SRN/ERN IL.
AS SUCH...SEGMENT OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS ERN
IL...AND PERHAPS SWRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...MAY STALL OR EVEN RETREAT
SLIGHTLY NWD.

..EDWARDS/MARSH.. 04/18/2013

SPC AC 181630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...MUCH OF IND...FAR NORTHWESTERN
OH...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN...EASTERN
AR...NORTHERN MS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN AND
OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SWRN STATES WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL JET
EXCEEDING 100 KT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH...EFFECTIVELY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS FROM W-E
TODAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE SURFACE...A LEAD LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI TO SRN ONTARIO AND WEAKEN
SOME. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY LOW ALREADY FORMING OVER NRN MO...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF EJECTING UPPER JET STREAK...SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...DEEPENING FURTHER
AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE NRN MO LOW THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TO
S TX WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...AND
SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OH TO ERN TN...AL TO THE N CENTRAL/WRN
GULF BY 12Z FRI.

...MI/IL/IND/OH...
SPC MCD 521 PROVIDES MESOSCALE DETAILS AND CONTINUED SHORT TERM
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR WW/S 122/123/124. THE
NRN EXTENT OF THE BAND OF TSTMS INTO SRN LOWER MI COULD OUTPACE LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...AND LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THUS...THE MODERATE RISK AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SWD SOME. MEANWHILE...THE LINE OF TSTMS
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NRN/WRN IND INTO SRN IL MAY STALL AS STRONGER
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR INTO ERN IA AND WI ALONG TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE TSTM LINE...WHILE A
MESOLOW OVER SRN-SERN MO TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE ATTENDANT EFFECTIVE
SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. FORECAST OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER AND
LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...LA/AR/MS/TN/KY/AL...
FARTHER S...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER N...WITH MLCAPE UP TO
1000-1500 J/KG. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WITH BOTH
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT QLCS CIRCULATIONS AND/OR EMBEDDED/BOW-ECHO AND
SUPERCELLS. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE ACROSS ERN AR INTO THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WOULD
SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...IN ADDITION TO AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 04/18/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (12:40PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
CAROLINAS AS WELL AS SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEWD INTO
WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ROUGHLY
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING
THE E COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. SOME HEATING AS WELL AS WELL AS AN
INFLUX OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE WARM
SECTOR WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE CAROLINAS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE CNTRL AND WRN STATES.

...PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GA AND NRN FL...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM OH INTO AL DURING THE
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT FROM SERN AL INTO SRN GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
STRONGEST. BY VIRTUE OF MODERATE MEAN WIND FIELDS AND STORM MOTIONS
OF 35-40 MPH...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD...HEATING WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REJUVENATE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRODUCING STRONG UVVS FROM CNTRL SC INTO
CNTRL NC AND SRN VA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INTENSIFIES.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH
SOME MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED OVER CNTRL AND ERN NC AND VA...WHICH COULD
AID IN ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR.

FARTHER N...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
DELMARVA AND PA WHERE STRONG FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN
PLACE BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
LIKELY THREAT IN THESE AREAS WOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..JEWELL.. 04/18/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1747Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NE LA...SE MO...SRN IL...SW
IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...NW MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 181748Z - 181915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN AR INTO WRN TN...NW MS AND NE LA. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER/LESS
INTENSE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES INDICATES
THAT SOME STORM INTENSIFICATION MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE EWD ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY
LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AR INTO PARTS OF SE LA
AND NW MS WHERE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES F WERE NOTED ON 17Z
SFC ANALYSIS. THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS, BACKED
SFC WINDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SFC WARMING UNDER
BROKEN CLOUDINESS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MEMPHIS AREA AND WEST OF I-55 IN MS/SE
AR...AND NORTH OF I-20. 17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG IN THIS REGION.
AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM
OF WW125. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AS SEEN IN 12Z AND 18Z RAOBS IN
ADDITION TO WSR-88D VWP PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...INTENSIFICATION IS LESS
CERTAIN. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY VEERED
SFC WINDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY.

TORNADO WARNING
ILC077-MOC157-181845-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0029.130418T1810Z-130418T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
110 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 109 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTENBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURPHYSBORO...CARBONDALE...AVA...DE SOTO...ELKVILLE...GORHAM AND
VERGENNES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8959 3795 8925 3772 8915 3762 8970
3771 8976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 238DEG 37KT 3773 8963

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 129 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AVA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINCKNEYVILLE...DU QUOIN...ELKVILLE...TAMAROA...VERGENNES...DOWELL
AND ST. JOHNS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 143 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CEDAR LAKE AREA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURPHYSBORO...CARBONDALE...CARTERVILLE...HERRIN...MARION...JOHNSTON
CITY...WEST FRANKFORT...CHRISTOPHER...DE SOTO...ELKVILLE...
CAMBRIA...HURST...CRAINVILLE...ENERGY...ROYALTON...ZEIGLER...
PITTSBURG...VALIER...BUSH AND COLP.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 123...WW 124...WW 125...

DISCUSSION...THE SQUALL LINE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN THE PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE LINE. SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JONESBORO...
NORTHWESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CAMPTI...OR
9 MILES NORTH OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CLEAR
LAKE...BLACK LAKE...CRESTON...CHESTNUT...GOLDONNA...SALINE...
FRIENDSHIP...DODSON AND LIBERTY HILL.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 230 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED ROTATING WALL CLOUD WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF THOMPSONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCLEANSBORO...THOMPSONVILLE...MACEDONIA AND BROUGHTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 8838 3792 8837 3789 8886 3805 8887
3816 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 252DEG 26KT 3796 8882

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
256 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CALVIN...OR
11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DODSON...HUDSON...SIKES...CHATHAM...EROS...VIXEN...RIVERTON...
LUNA...LAPINE...CYPRESS AND CADERVILLE...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

ARC003-182045-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-130418T2045Z/
ASHLEY AR-
311 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR ASHLEY
COUNTY...

AT 311 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO TRACK A LIKELY TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSSETT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BERLIN AND HAMBURG BY 320 PM CDT...
PARKDALE BY 330 PM CDT...
SNYDER BY 335 PM CDT...
MONTROSE AND PORTLAND BY 340 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 340 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF SNYDER
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SNYDER BY 345 PM CDT...
PORTLAND BY 350 PM CDT...
MONTROSE BY 355 PM CDT...
MCMILLAN CORNER AND LAKE VILLAGE BY 415 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST MONROE...SWARTZ...MONROE...
CLAIBORNE...BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH
OF BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RICHWOOD AND STERLINGTON...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 352 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR PARKDALE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EUDORA BY 410 PM CDT...
CHICOT JUNCTION BY 415 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 355 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED 10 MILES WEST OF BUCKNER
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BUCKNER BY 405 PM CDT...
ALTO BY 410 PM CDT...
START...ARCHIBALD AND MANGHAM BY 415 PM CDT...
RAYVILLE BY 425 PM CDT...
HOLLY RIDGE BY 430 PM CDT...
BAKERS BY 435 PM CDT...

Starting to get a little bumpy

yep....will be a long evening, for the southern end, I think......

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
431 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 431 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A DAMAGING
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE ON THE GROUND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTHERN GREENVILLE BY 440 PM CDT...
METCALFE...LELAND AND WINTERVILLE BY 450 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EAST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
MADISON PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 459 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED 6 MILES WEST OF WAVERLY
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WAVERLY AND TENDAL BY 505 PM CDT...
MONTICELLO BY 510 PM CDT...
SONDHEIMER...ALSATIA...OMEGA AND MANSFORD BY 525 PM CDT...
TRANSYLVANIA BY 530 PM CDT...
LAKE PROVIDENCE BY 535 PM CDT...
FITLER BY 540 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
LEFLORE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 523 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A DAMAGING
TORNADO NEAR NITTA YUMA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DELTA CITY AND HOLLANDALE BY 530 PM CDT...
MURPHY AND DARLOVE BY 535 PM CDT...
ISOLA BY 550 PM CDT...
BELZONI BY 555 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
548 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEFLORE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 548 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED 10 MILES WEST OF ITTA BENA
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ITTA BENA AND QUITO BY 600 PM CDT...
GREENWOOD BY 610 PM CDT...
MONEY BY 615 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
606 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEFLORE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR SWIFTOWN MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIDON BY 625 PM CDT...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
608 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED 17 MILES WEST OF TINSLEY
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TINSLEY BY 635 PM CDT...
LITTLE YAZOO BY 640 PM CDT...
MYRLEVILLE BY 650 PM CDT...
BENTON BY 655 PM CDT...

Looks like it was a long night, across the mid-south...... and the weather got squirrly, up in the Dakotas/MN area...... Kamala is back up, and reporting severe warnings (so it appears)......

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/


The SPC Storm Report........

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html









Current SPC..... NO watches/warnings/MCD's




Day 1 Convective Outlook....



Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 190544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO CNTRL AND ERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH ATTENDANT
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH SERN CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN STATES AND FINALLY
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN WARM SECTOR...BUT THIS
EVENINGS 00Z RAOB DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS FROM SRN GA INTO FL AS WELL AS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF
STREAM. A STRONG SLY LLJ ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH WARM SECTOR AND RESULT IN NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE
WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOW 60S INTO
VA. DIABATIC WARMING AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPE TO BELOW 1000 J/KG OVER THE CAROLINAS AND AOB 500 J/KG
FARTHER NORTH THROUGH VA.

LOW TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWD THROUGH TN VALLEY AND A PART OF THE SERN STATES. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT EARLY SEVERE THREAT...BUT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LLJ PROGRESS EWD
SUPPORTING RESPECTABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THE 00Z RAOBS FROM THURSDAY EVENING SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS
WILL BE MODIFIED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE INITIATION IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES.
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
LINE.

...NERN STATES...

FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODEST INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SLY LLJ SUPPORTING WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SFC HEATING OCCURS. ACTIVITY
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES...AND
SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
UPDATE...BUT A SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..DIAL/COHEN.. 04/19/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0919Z (5:19AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME




The line is on top of our buddy, Gomey.........





Mobile NWS WFO Discussion 2 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
207 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CURRENTLY WATCHING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
REGION. RATE OF MOVEMENT IS AROUND 30 KNOTS. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO BE INITIATING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
WHERE NEAR SURFACE LAYER LIFTING IS OCCURRING DUE TO ISENTROPIC COLD
DOME BUILDING IN. SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER VIGOROUS AS
MAXIMUM TOPS ARE APPROACHING 40 KFT...SO THE MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
NOSE ON THE 19.00 UTC LIX SOUNDING IS NOT `CAPPING.` SOME ISOLATED
CELLS MAY HAVE UPDRAFTS THAT REACH INTO THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND
SOME ALGORITHMS ARE ESTIMATING NON SEVERE HAIL AS LARGE AS 0.75"
DIAMETER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL MAINLY AFFECT INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND CHOCTAW CO. ALABAMA GIVEN
HOW DEVELOPING CELLS ARE BEING ADVECTED BY SW DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND
FLOW TO THE REAR OF THE SFC FRONT. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW 10 KFT AGL AND ARE LOWERING IN UPSTREAM AIR.

UPDATED HWO TO EMPHASIZE ONLY A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A 40 TO 50 MPH
WIND GUST WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD MAINLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND TO DE-EMPHASIZE TORNADO THREAT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING FASTER OVER OR NORTHERN ZONES AND THIS IS
DISPLACING THE HIGHEST EFFECTIVE SRH. CLEARLY THE GREATEST MLCAPE
VALUES AT THIS HOUR (AOB 600 J/KG) ARE NOT IN PHASE WITH THE LATTER
INGREDIENT AND THIS IS HELPING TO LOWER THE TORNADO POTENTIAL EVEN
LOWER. EXPECT LINE TO BE ALONG I-65 BY SUNRISE AND MOVING EAST
THEREAFTER. /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOB/BFM AROUND 10-11Z AND PNS 12-13Z.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING 15-25 KT OUT OF THE NW AFTER FROPA. STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN END IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. 34/JFB

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
20 TO 60 NM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

Area Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS62 KJAX 200829
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
428 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...MUCH COOLER AND DREARY TODAY...

...WINDY SUN & MON WITH PASSING SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MON...

TODAY...A COOL AND DREARY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
POST-FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD OVER SE GA THIS MORNING...THEN OVER NE FL THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING WITH A STARKE DEMARCATION LINE IN THE END OF PRECIP.
STABILITY IS HIGH TRAILING THE SFC FRONT WITH LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ADVERTISED SHOWERS WITH STRATIFORM
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS CHALLENGING RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THE DATE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S:

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY:

SITE VALUE/YEAR
AMG 61/1953
SSI 64/1953
JAX 62/1926
GNV 62/1940

TONIGHT...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING FRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT FROM JAX TO GNV. MIN TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA UNDER COOLER AND DRY
NE DRAINAGE FLOW UNDER A WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING...WITH MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH
MINS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER NE FL.

SUN & MON...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE FRONT SUN INTO MON EAST OF THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
STUBBORN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH WIND ADVISORY TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY BOTH DAYS AT LEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...WITH WAVES OF COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM
SSI TOWARD GNV. STABILITY REMAINS HIGH...SO NO THUNDER ADVERTISED AT
THIS TIME. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) ADVERTISES 1 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SSI TO GNV CORRIDOR EASTWARD
THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM THE GULF WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI...SFC LOW PRESSURE AND THE TRAILING
FRONT SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC TUE WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WED ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM
AS IT SLIDES TOWARD SE GA AND NE FL WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN TRAILING THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. WILL
ADVERTISE LOW 20% CHANCES OF PRECIP ON WED AFTN THRU THU AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH OVER N-CENTRAL FL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
NNE OF THE REGION FRI/SAT WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE
OF COASTAL SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
BELOW CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S- LOW/MID 80S. LOWS WILL
MODERATE IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT TAF SITES WITH MVFR
CONDTIONS AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AS LWO CIGS AND VSBYS PERSIST.
NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE N AND THEN NE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY OFFSHORE TODAY AND SCEC NEAR SHORE
DUE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS BEHIND COLD FRONT. AFTER A LULL IN WINDS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL CREATE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOCAL NOR`EASTER
CONDITIONS. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY...BECOMING HIGH ON
SUNDAY AS NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BREAKERS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 6 FEET ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING A POSSIBILITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FULL MOON PHASE
APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 67 47 71 51 / 90 0 20 20
SSI 59 57 63 58 / 100 20 30 30
JAX 61 55 68 59 / 90 40 40 40
SGJ 65 59 68 63 / 90 60 40 40
GNV 61 55 73 60 / 90 50 30 30
OCF 66 55 77 62 / 70 60 40 40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200916 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN THE W/W/A LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE PRECEDED BY A
LINE OF SHOWERS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BEST LIFT EXISTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

OUR FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A TOUGH ONE. WE WILL HAVE TWO DISTINCT
AIRMASSES IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS NOW MOVING
THROUGH TAMPA BAY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR HIGHLANDS SOUTHWEST TO
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. THE OVER-RUNNING RAINS NORTH OF THE
FRONT SHOULD SET UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...THE JET SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SO EXPECT TO SEE NORTHERN
BAND OF RAIN TO DIMINISH SOME...BUT WITH HEATING SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING ON
THE WET SIDE WHILE THE GFS DRIES US OUT. TYPICALLY...UNDER A
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WE WOULD STAY MAINLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IF WE HAD A POTENT PACKET OF ENERGY MOVING BY OVERHEAD.
SINCE I DO NOT SEE THAT...I TRENDED DRIER.

BETWEEN THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY AND
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH MINGLED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EARLIER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

I STAYED AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN FALLING THROUGH A RELATIVELY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FORCE AN AMPLIFICATION TO
WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN AND OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD
PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-4...HOWEVER IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH A
SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY LATER THURSDAY.
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE INFLUENCE AND SOUTHERN
PENETRATION OF THIS FRONT HAS DIMINISHED...AN THERE IS NOW SOME
QUESTION WHETHER THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY REACH OUR AREA...OR JUST
WASH OUT NEAR I-10. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD AT LEAST
GIVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE NATURE
COAST DURING THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THIS FRONT MAY HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
DEEP LAYER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE FL PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS...AND
ALSO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALREADY PAST KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ. THE WINDS
SHIFT WILL OCCUR FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRICKY RAINFALL FORECAST WITH A SHOWER
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYTIME TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER SOUTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY
INDICATION WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MARINE...WINDS ARE PICKING UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH 20 TO 25
KNOTS BEING REPORTED NOW ALONG THE COAST OF PASCO AND PINELLAS
COUNTIES AS WELL AS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOY. SEAS ARE ALREADY 5 TO 6
FEET AT BUOY 42036. FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP TAMPA BAY OUT OF THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT WILL HAVE AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. WE MAY NEED TO PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. STILL...
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE EASTERLY SURGES AT NIGHT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 64 82 68 / 50 30 50 40
FMY 83 67 87 68 / 40 30 50 40
GIF 72 63 83 66 / 50 30 40 40
SRQ 74 63 84 67 / 30 20 50 40
BKV 71 60 82 63 / 70 30 40 30
SPG 74 66 80 69 / 40 30 50 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 200827 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
427 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...
A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM
DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA...WILL SLOWLY CROSS EC FL AND SETTLE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BY EVE. SOME HEATING SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF ORLANDO
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER). WILL
HOLD ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH EVEN AFTER THE BAND
MOVES THROUGH AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE POPS LOOK TOO HIGH THOUGH AND
HAVE DRAWN 50 POPS MOST AREAS. IN FACT...THINK COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF FA...WITH 60 POPS.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY TODAY ESP ACROSS THE NORTH. IN SOME PLACES
THE HIGH MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTH WINDS 15 MPH AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT SFC HEATING. FOR EXAMPLE...DAYTONA BEACH WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE FRONT AND NOT CLIMB BACK OUT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE/
MARTIN COUNTY.

TONIGHT...
FRONT IS FORECAST TO HANG UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUT CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCD WITH DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND UPPER JET. SO WILL HOLD ONTO 30 POPS FOR SHOWERS IN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA IN THE EVENING. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REQUIRE A 20
POP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDS TO SET UP
AND CROSS THE COAST.

SUN-MON...
UNSEASONABLE WET WX PATTERN FOR CENTRAL FL...GIVEN THAT APR IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRIND TO A
HALT AGAINST A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF WILL MERGE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE WRN ATLC/NW CARIB...ALLOWING PWAT VALUES TO REACH
AS HIGH AS 1.5"-1.7" ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LOWER PWATS
(1.3"-1.5") ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS POST FRONTAL DRY AIR
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA.

H30-H20 LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS/NRN GOMEX WILL GENERATE
STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ACRS THE REGION. UPSTREAM MID LVL ENERGY
IS RATHER SPARSE AS THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED H85-H50 VORTICITY OVER THE SRN TIER STATES. OMEGA LIFT
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MID
LVL SUPPORT TO KEEP POPS AOA 50PCT. WILL GO WITH 50 POPS ALONG AND N
OF I-4...60 POPS TO THE S DUE TO DEEPER AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY TUE TO THE LACK OF
LOW/MID LVL INSTABILITY.

NE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING OCEAN MODIFIED AIR TO ADVECT ACRS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...
L/M80S INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS M/U60S ALONG THE COAST...L/M60S INTERIOR.

TUE-FRI...
PRECIP TO LINGER INTO TUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL WITHIN THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/ECMWF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE DVLPMNT OF A WEAK SPOT LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUE. THE NEWLY DVLPD LOW WILL PROVIDE THE TORQUE NECESSARY TO CRANK
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS INTO S FL WHILE HELPING DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL FL.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF BRINGING A NEW
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL LATE WED INTO THU. GFS STALLS IT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ITS SRN EXTENSION WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA. INCLINED TO GO WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THE PEAK OF THE DRY SEASON. WILL KEEP
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST FOR THU TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONT...POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

NO INDICATIONS OF UNUSUALLY HIGH OR LOW TEMPS THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEK...READINGS SHOULD BE WITHIN ABOUT 5F DEG OF CLIMO AVGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONT WILL PRESS E/SE AND CROSS LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO BY 8 AM...FPR/SUA
BY 18Z. THIN BAND OF SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC HEATING
CAN OCCUR SOUTH OF MCO. PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS POSS ESP THROUGH 13Z MCO
NORTHWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVE ACROSS MANY TERMINALS BUT EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN AFT 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AS EXPECTED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS WEAKENED A BIT AS PRES
GRAD BECOMES BAGGY ASSOCD WITH FRONTAL ZONE. BUT A SURGE OF NORTH
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS FOR 20 KNOTS. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND TO
THE SOUTH EXPECT 15-20 KNOTS SO WILL HEADLINE CAUTION. BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ASSOCD
WITH THE FRONT WITH A FEW STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE BREVARD TO THE
TREASURE COAST.

TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT 15 KNOTS SO WILL LIKELY NEED A CAUTION IN
THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ACRS THE ERN
CONUS...GENERATING A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE. WINDS BCMG A LIGHT
TO GENTLE SE BREEZE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET AFT SUNSET AS AN INVERTED
TROF BEGINS TO FORM OVER S FL ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY.
SCT/NMRS SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRAS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT N OF
SEBASTIAN INLET...4-6FT TO THE SOUTH.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...TRAILING ITS RIDGE AXIS DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE
LWR MS VALLEY. A WEAK LOW WILL DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE...GENERATING A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. S OF THE INLET PGRAD WILL BE WEAKER DUE TO THE
FURTHER PROXIMITY TO THE DLVPG LOW...GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE
WILL RESULT. SEAS 6-8FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...4-6FT TO THE SOUTH.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFTS UP THE ERN
SEABOARD...BCMG A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE AREAWIDE BY LATE
AFTN. PERSISTENT E/NERLY FETCH OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL PUSH A SWELL
INTO THE E FL COAST...KEEPING SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE.

WED-WED NIGHT...A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SE COAST...
GENERATING A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE. COMBINED SEAS 3-4FT
NEARSHORE...4-5FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 63 76 67 / 50 30 50 40
MCO 75 62 81 65 / 50 30 50 40
MLB 76 67 78 70 / 50 20 60 50
VRB 80 68 79 69 / 50 20 60 50
LEE 73 60 79 65 / 50 30 50 40
SFB 73 61 79 66 / 50 30 50 40
ORL 76 62 81 66 / 50 30 50 40
FPR 81 68 79 69 / 50 20 60 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 201125
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MVFR CIG AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR INDICATES
CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN EARNEST BETWEEN 18-20Z WITH THE
STEERING FLOW TAKING THE STORMS TO THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE, HAVE
LEFT TEMPO 18-22Z FOR ALL EAST TERMINALS WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY PERSISTING BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT GENERALLY
SSW-SSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 71 83 72 / 60 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 84 74 / 50 30 60 40
MIAMI 87 73 85 73 / 40 30 50 40
NAPLES 86 69 86 69 / 40 20 40 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

emcf30 wrote:

Hiya e..... ya slipped in, and posted this, the other evening......where is it from? Is it near you?

brrr....the PWS, down the road, says ...... but, it feels cooler, than that....

Maybe e got a little rain, overnight......

Woot!!! I like this AM discussion, out of Ruskin....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
424 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY AND A HALF OR
SO OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH PERHAPS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK FOR
TODAY...THE PRIMARY CATALYST FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SURFACE
HEATING. THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...BUT MAINLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO NOON.
BY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER LAND
AND MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP TO THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE DAY WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ACTIVITY COMING IN FROM THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. WHEN ALL IS SET AND DONE...MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE AT SEEING RAIN BY
SUNSET...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LEVY COUNTY WHERE DRIER AIR
WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST.


NAM 36 hour precip forecast......