HURRICANE WARNING: MATTHEW

Hurricane warnings are out from South Florida to the mid South Carolina Coast. If in this area you should now be finishing all preparation. Be prepared to be without power for a week or more.



I think what worries me the most in this situation is last minute panic. Some will wait and see and not evacuate the coast line and barrier Islands until the last minutes. I fear major traffic jams from South Florida Northward. This will strand people in their cars to experience a major hurricane.....THINK BEFORE YOU ACT!! CHECK TRAFFIC CONDITIONS!

Now my thoughts on the storm.....

First we have a complicated atmosphere with a variable or more....

As alway listen to the National Hurricane Center for latest updates.

The variable being how strong the high over the Southeast US becomes and will there be a Fujiwara effect from Nicole.. The loop later in the forecast is possible. Many things can cause this system to move but I feel it will be a consensus move with the models. Here are the current steering currents:


What will steer Matthew is the burmuda high,the high over Tennessee,the ULL South of Western Cuba and possibly Nicole...

The Bermuda high will help push the Matthew Northwest.The Tennessee High as it migrates East will tend to give Matthew a West component. the ULL South of Cuba will tend to push Matthew North. Then with Nicole's proximity she could steer Matthew Nprthwest as they could dance in a Fujiwara effect...

So with all this I say Matthew heads Northwest with wobbles West Northwest for the next 24 hours ,meaning I see a landfall somewhere near Palm Beach Florida. After 24 hours we should know what the dominate steering features will be....

IF the Tennessee High then Matthew could cross Florida and enter the Gulf South of Tampa...

IF The ULL and the Bermuda high then a brush with the Florida coast and out to sea..

IF a cobination of the Tennessee High and the Bermuda high...then we see a loop...

IF Nicole and the Fujiwara then brushes the coast and heads inland in North Florida and Georgia...

So as you can see even though the models are in a agreement many small variables can change this storms track at any given time....

MAYBE The flying coconuts will calm down from the island exposures and the Hurricane Hunters can investigate...LOL

We will be watching....watching the IF'S

Matthew jogged north for awhile today which to me means we may be seeing some Fujiwara effect as it interacts with Nicole..

Also note how the High that was over North Tennessee has strengthened some and moved ENE.(could block the system north earlier and produce a faster loop!

So now more emphasis on an
"IF" from above...

IF Nicole and the Fujiwara then brushes the coast and heads inland in North Florida and Georgia.

that's the best IF at this point:))

Dangit Gomey! We hang in chat so much that I didn't even realize you posted this!

Thank GOD for the East jog Matthew took around West Palm. Been stuck up here at the Hammocks near the Flagler / St Johns County line. Storm surge did a ass kicking here.