CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

hey folks,CMC has something coming up from the Caribbean into the gulf into the Panhandle of Florida

we all know we cannot ever trust models more than 2-3 days out,but with our tropical season getting closer and the weird weather we have been having this year..im sure going to be watching out for this,could be something, could be the model changes with the next run and there's nothing there huh..right now its just watching and waiting....one thing though..it also puts rain Into mainland florida as well...but in all the NWS forecasts..i don't see any mention at all of any rain for us this week..im wondering if this..is something the GFS was seeing around the 23-24th? also?...well its just a possibility I have to mention ok..who knows if it verifies a week or so away huh.

Navy Model has it also..just something to watch,way too early yet..........

yes 5 day rain forecast puts rain in south florida on the 19th..little clues huh.............

Hi Everyone! We just had a hard rainstorm! Probably close to an inch. But now the sun is back out and it is HUMID. The storm even had thunder and lightning!

Thankful for the rain !

Largo.. Thanks for the updates. I'm so happy you are watching these things!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Largo.. Thanks for the updates.  I'm so happy you are watching these things!    

hiya Billsfan..thanks I guess I have the time to do all this watching and posting while most here work thru the week huh....say...Glad you got some rain down there..and Happy Mother's day ok!!

Latest CMC model run takes the Caribbean LOW into the big bend area may 20th..

I tried using what the hurricane models use for wind etc..didn't see too much with this Caribbean low system..but..alot of rain for us IF..this does verify...GFS keeps the LOW meandering down below Cuba etc...let see what they are saying around Thursday ok..quite possibly it wont even be around Thursday huh..models do that long range..POOF it goes..but..i'll keep watching it thru the early week

see how they change run to run?.now Navy model takes the Caribbean LOW INTO east Florida..

yeah GFS keeps it below Cuba,never coming near Florida,so far anyway....

Good Early Monday Morning Folks!!..another warm DRY day ahead for us,Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!

Morning All, Had a good rain on Saturday .74 in the bucket.
My friend up in spring hill had 5.53. looks like the front stopped for a while. Then came threw.
Some of the PWS up that way were as much as 8 inches near the coast.
Well next shot looks like next Friday threw the weekend.
Have a great day!!!
John Z-hills

well the 0Z CMC model still brings a disturbance up along Florida's west coast.......

well model runs do change huh, just something to watch towards the end of this week,for myself I hope it does come up along the western side of Florida..I sure could use its rains here,one note..now IF the CMC track Does verify..the low does clip south florida as it goes thru the straights...at last we have something to watch and track huh..maybe..some of you who are better at this than I am...can you also see what I'm seeing?

I guess I posted my storm total too early on Saturday. The sun came out and the radar had cleared up for my area, but it re-fired and I ended up getting two more rain showers for the event; one Saturday afternoon and another on Sunday morning. Ended up with a storm total of 0.50" for the event. I feel fortunate as just 5 miles north of me only got a trace.

severstorm wrote:Morning All, Had a good rain on Saturday .74 in the bucket.
My friend up in spring hill had 5.53. looks like the front stopped for a while. Then came threw.
Some of the PWS up that way were as much as 8 inches near the coast.
Well next shot looks like next Friday threw the weekend.
Have a great day!!!
John Z-hills

good you got some rain John..just a sprinkle by me,but this coming weekend might be wet,hopefully i'll get some rain then.

clipped from the weather channel.....................ATLANTIC
On track for the front which is bringing cooler & drier air to the Northeast to stall late this week & weekend from the subtropical Atlantic across Florida to the northeast Gulf, and set up a zone of thunderstorms & heavy rain, and maybe a low pressure system organizing somewhere in that zone. If so, there is potential for it to take on "tropical characteristics" (tstorms/wind concentrated around a warm center), but still too early for honing in on how much potential there is for that, and exactly where it might form and track.  
Even if no tropical development, the subtropical Atlantic, northeast Gulf, and southeast U.S. coastal region will increasingly be a focus for rain & thunderstorms.

ok so met's are watching the possible low pressure system forming down there now too...let see thru the week IF it does indeed form and will it...head to florida OR, out into the atlantic?

well lawns cut and manicured lol..looking good so far..just would be better if I got some good rain...well BBL.

waterdipper wrote:I guess I posted my storm total too early on Saturday. The sun came out and the radar had cleared up for my area, but it re-fired and I ended up getting two more rain showers for the event; one Saturday afternoon and another on Sunday morning. Ended up with a storm total of 0.50" for the event. I feel fortunate as just 5 miles north of me only got a trace.

glad you got some more rain into the next day WD..

well in looking at the models this afternoon, it seems on the latest runs..whatever forms down there is weak and its rains get absorbed into our next front,might be some GOOD rains for Florida maybe sun/mon..we'll see how this goes over time.

meanwhile according to the NAM model..good luck Billsfan.................

yeah looks like Nam model is picking up on it also,still too early yet.......

yeah NOAA is picking up on it also....................................................................

well its a hot sunny day here by me today,nothing weather wise going on around here..BBL

Good afternoon.  I really haven't had the time to check on the potential disturbance but expect little, if anything, from it aside from potential rainfall enhancement in areas.

I am more excited about Jax early AM and PM discussion making mention of my favorite summertime phrase "seabreeze convection".  Here's the PM snip.  The folks in western NEFL seem to be the primary beneficiaries at the moment but it's about that time of year for the seabreezes to get active.

PM snip:  "Main driver of convection looks to be seabreeze boundaries with best focus of convection inland and western zones"

Test. My laptop is irritating me.

StAugustineFL wrote:Test.  My laptop is irritating me.

yes a lot of folks complaining about their puter's today,perhaps its all trying to stem this new virus?

Good Tuesday Morning Folks,looks like 90's temps here all week,and some low rain chances Friday thru the weekend Local met is saying....well I'm setting the Blogs COFFEE to perk for when you get here..enjoy...have a great day everyone!!

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
351 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
162000-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
351 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for Atlantic Beaches...
...Slight Chance of Thunderstorms Across South Florida Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across South
FLorida today. The threat is forecast to transition to the interior
and Gulf coast by mid to late afternoon. Lightning is the main
threat.

RIP CURRENTS: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches today.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Lightning
will be the primary threat.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

well in my opinion that supposed LOW in the Caribbean wont really verify and we are back here in Florida to our regular weather and fronts coming from the west and north like usual, one thing I do notice..some slight rain chances to our differing area's thru the weekend so quite possibly a change is coming and our rainy season does begin in a few weeks from now.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
903 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...Mostly clear skies and very warm conditions expected
next few days with dry airmass in place as shown in 12Z
soundings...given high pressure ridge at surface and aloft over
the area. Strong subsidence over the area should suppress any
coastal shower development. Current forecast looks good.

&&

ok now the GFS model also puts a LOW onshore monday in central florida,seems to be I-4 corridor huh........

yeah Monday the 22nd might turn out to be a wet if not interesting day,guess we stay alert for any changes or surprises that day..the rains I'm sure some here can really use huh

NWS says my city is 2 inches or more below normal,how about Yours??

Just throwing this out there...hmmmm June 1st per GFS.............................

June was always the month I watched..most tropical things in the Caribbean seem to always come into/over or very near Florida..after June then we watch the Atlantic storms, and with our supposed warmer temps things could..get quite interesting this coming tropical season..we'll see how this plays out thru this coming season and see..IF these warmer temps DO create more or stronger storms like some are predicting...any thoughts on this?...just trying to get things moving in here ok

too far out in time to really believe but,1st week of June might get interesting,stay tuned lol..

and of course, we in Florida need to watch the Caribbean always in June huh..................................................

ok that's enough from me...have a great rest of the day folks.

LargoFL wrote:NWS says my city is 2 inches or more below normal,how about Yours??

Good afternoon.

Not sure what time period your rainfall deficit was for Largo but I'm running a good 7-8" below normal for the year and probably around 12" since Matthew in early October.

.we got a rainy weekend coming.......................NWS Tampa...........Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms will form later this afternoon over coastal
locations from Sarasota to Fort Myers then push offshore and
diminish in the evening. Some of these thunderstorms will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...
and frequent deadly lightning strikes. If lightning is observed or
thunder is heard move indoors immediately.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
An easterly wind surge in the 15 to 20 knot range will be possible
over the Gulf water tonight and mariners are urged to exercise
caution if venturing into the Gulf this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Friday afternoon
through Tuesday...with the greatest coverage during Saturday and
Sunday. Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly
lightning strikes. If lightning is observed or thunder is heard
move indoors immediately.

Good Wednesday Morning Folks..nice day ahead for us,HOT and DRY for my area..well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!!

Good morning Largo and everyone!

No rain since Sunday, hot, humid, dry, summer is nearly here.

Anyone know of the fire situation/road closings?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo and everyone!

No rain since Sunday, hot, humid, dry, summer is nearly here.

Anyone know of the fire situation/road closings?

Good Morning Billsfan!!..it seems southern Florida will have showers thru the next few days,good luck ok...HOT and DRY here once again today by me.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo and everyone!

No rain since Sunday, hot, humid, dry, summer is nearly here.

Anyone know of the fire situation/road closings?

I checked the FHP site..dont see any road closures today Billsfan,have a safe trip to and from work ok

well its almost 2pm and regardless of what the Calendar says..its full blast summer here by me whew,dry and HOT..but that said..here on the coast there is a good breeze,thank goodness

I agree Largo!  We have had some very hot days since April 1st.