CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

now the lastest run of our regular GFS takes the LOW thru the straights..

well any model 10-11 days out cant be believed but if it verifies somewhat..the added rainfall in southern florida might help with the fires around lake O area huh

Good afternoon and good luck on the rains.

Nothing going on here. There's a fairly healthy band of showers or storms about 15-20 miles to my west but moving NNW. It has clouded over and there is a nice breeze so it feels quite pleasant outdoors. I can't complain.

The annual wasp nest at the New Port Richey weather webcam is alive and well. http://www.aprsfl.net/cam/index.php?site=FL

LOL Aug, that wasp nest never goes away!

sangria wrote:LOL Aug, that wasp nest never goes away!

lol nice one Aug.

well I got some nice rain showers last night,everything is wet outside...airport is reporting .034 rain..i might have gotten a little more than that here by me..whatever the amount, its nice to see the afternoon/evening rains return finally.

(clip).....NWS Tampa..Sat 5/20.....Ample moisture with model PWAT values
from 1.4 to almost 2 inches along with the sea breeze
circulations will support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms...occasionally numerous. The greatest
shower/storms coverage is expected in the afternoons...along
the I-75 corridor today and along and just east of there
Sun.

Good Saturday Morning folks!!..blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!

is everyone ok from those storms yesterday?..sure was ALOT of Lightning and thunder huh,glad I wasn't caught outdoors whew.

Good morning. Feels very summer-like this morning. Warm with high dewpoints. Looks like one more day of dry weather for my area followed by good rain chances tomorrow through mid-week before a front moves through and dries things out.

Been a LONG time since the entire state of FL has been painted with good precipitation amounts like this.

Precip for the past 24 hours. Fairly large area of 1"+ in/around the Tampa Bay area.

Snip from the JAX discussion.

"Very persistent upper ridge over the area will reluctantly break
down and begin to slowly shift eastward on Sunday, with even more
significant height falls expected Monday night into Tuesday. A very
moist conveyor belt (PWATS at or above 2 inches) will set up
almost directly across our forecast area and persist through mid-
week. This will set the stage for a rather wet and stormy weather
pattern with a chance for severe storms and very heavy rainfall
through mid-week. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging
wind gusts and large hail, with 500 mb temps around -10C."

LargoFL wrote:

sangria wrote:LOL Aug, that wasp nest never goes away!

lol nice one Aug.

You should take a gander at that cam for a few minutes in the afternoon Largo.  It has about as much wasp traffic coming in/out as O'Hare airport in Chicago!

I never realized wasps nested so high.  The cam is well above the trees.

Our sky tower webcam is mounted 70ft above the ground (88ft above sea level) on the broadband tower behind our building and shows an incredible view of the West Pasco skyline. The camera's wide angle view captures from due East of our location (approximately Starkey Park) to Southeast (approximately Longleaf and Trinity areas). You can view a detailed map showing the exact viewing area of the camera. Finally, the 28 hour timelapse link will play for you the past day as a 5 minute movie at 6 minutes per second.

Is anyone else a CoCoRaHS contributor?  My station ID is FL-SJ-16.  

CoCoRaHS

Good site to see members rain totals for the past day along with alot of other information.  Here are some reports from the Tampa area from yesterday.

ABOUT COCORAHS
CoCoRaHS (pronounced KO-ko-rozz) is a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow) in their local communities. By using low-cost measurement tools, stressing training and education, and utilizing an interactive Web-site, our aim is to provide the highest quality data for natural resource, education and research applications. The only requirements to join are an enthusiasm for watching and reporting weather conditions and a desire to learn more about how weather can affect and impact our lives.

I am on a roll this morning!

For those who may have some spare time, this is a great site to learn - and it's all FREE. I received my storm spotter certification here. It was a couple of one hour courses followed by an exam.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail_courses.php?topicSorting=%25&module_sorting=titleAsc

StAugustineFL wrote:Good morning.  Feels very summer-like this morning.  Warm with high dewpoints.  Looks like one more day of dry weather for my area followed by good rain chances tomorrow through mid-week before a front moves through and dries things out.

Been a LONG time since the entire state of FL has been painted with good precipitation amounts like this.

yeah for sure..we really need this badly.

Good Morning everyone!

.18" here in the gauge from yesterday evening's rain.  That was our best shot for the next few days, but the E/SE flow will give us a slight chance with late day sea breeze convection.

For the most part, my 360 degree shield around my small area worked to keep the best rain north and south of me!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
400 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Friday)...
Mid/upper level ridging will be suppressed south as broad trough
moves into the eastern U.S. early in the week and then begins to
deepen during midweek. Meanwhile at the surface a weakening cool
front will be moving through the southeast U.S. Sunday night and
Monday before stalling to our north Tuesday. This will push the
surface ridge south setting up a more south to southwest flow across
the region for Monday and Tuesday. We will still have enough
moisture around during this period to see scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms, but best chances will shift
to the interior Monday and then to the eastern half of the Florida
peninsula Tuesday. Overnight lows during this time will remain
rather muggy and mostly in the lower to middle 70s, while daytime
highs are closer to normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

During midweek there are some differences in the global models with
the GFS cutting off a mid/upper level low over the Tennessee Valley
while the ECMWF remains further north. Either way though it does
look like this next system will be stronger and further south which
will help to push the next cool front through the southeast U.S.
Wednesday and across the Florida peninsula Thursday into Friday.
Ahead of this we will see some deeper moisture overspread the region
and with the mid/upper level support we should see scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday followed
by some drier air to end the week. With the additional clouds and
precipitation daytime highs during Wednesday and Thursday are
expected to be near to a few degrees below normal in the 80s to near
90. Overnight lows Wednesday night are expected remain rather muggy
in the lower to middle 70s across the central and south ahead of the
boundary with mid to upper 60s across the Nature Coast where the
drier air should begin to move in. For Thursday night we`ll see lows
range from the lower 60s north to lower 70s near the coast from
around Tampa Bay southward. For Friday we should see more sun, but
still cannot rule out a shower south of the Interstate 4 corridor as
the boundary will become nearly stationary across south Florida.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to a couple of degrees below
normal with highs mostly in the middle to upper 80s.

I'll be darned. A very small shower is moving through. I'll see a tenth of an inch at best but it feels good to see rain. I wasn't expecting any until tomorrow.

sangria wrote:Good Morning everyone!

.18" here in the gauge from yesterday evening's rain.  That was our best shot for the next few days, but the E/SE flow will give us a slight chance with late day sea breeze convection.

For the most part, my 360 degree shield around my small area worked to keep the best rain north and south of me!

I hate when that happens! .69" just to your south north of the Pinellas line per the CoCoRaHS map I posted a few posts back.

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1052 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Southeasterly flow remains well established across the
peninsula this morning with high pressure to the north of
the area. Morning TBW RAOB sampled a slightly drier airmass
compared to 24 hrs ago. That being said however, sufficient
moisture remains in place and the column will continue to
moisten throughout the day with SE flow bringing higher PWs
into the area by the afternoon. Hi-res models continue to
show a similar looking setup from yesterday with
afternoon/evening convection developing along the I-75
corridor during the afternoon when the seabreezes collide.
Easterly flow will allow this activity to push towards the
coast around and just after sunset. For the morning update,
adjusted PoPs up a bit in spots to include likely TSTM
wording for much of the immediate Tampa Bay area where the
highest rain chances are expected. Updated zones have
already been sent.


&&

gee I have to say that thunder and Lightning last night wasn't fooling around here wow

That morning update sounds promising Largo. Hopefully, we'll get another shot this evening.

whew its sure HUMID here..just finished picking up the tree pieces that blew off the tree's last night in those thunder storms and mowed my lawn etc..wow soaking wet everything is..including me lol..but now everything looks good and I can rest.....nice to see the ground wet again around here..hope it continues.

too far out in time BUT,if this is here end of may..maybe our fun begins..........

I am pleasantly surprised. The earlier shower dropped .07" in my gauge. A much stronger shower popped up behind it and dumped .49". Total of .56". Sun is out now and the rain should transition towards the interior and west coast.

sangria wrote:That morning update sounds promising Largo.   Hopefully, we'll get another shot this evening.

yes its almost 4pm and as I walked my dogs I noticed the west coast sea breeze has pushed over my area..NWS says the storms will fire up when the 2 sea breezes hit into each other,might just be another good evening rainwise here San...good luck up there ok.

StAugustineFL wrote:I am pleasantly surprised.  The earlier shower dropped .07" in my gauge.  A much stronger shower popped up behind it and dumped .49".  Total of .56".  Sun is out now and the rain should transition towards the interior and west coast.

wonderful, glad you got some good rain there Aug..sun is still out by me so far.

east coast seabreeze is gusting pretty storng down by Billsfan's area....

yes our storms will come later this evening looks like....................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
An elongated area of high pressure currently located off the
Mid-Atlantic coast with mid-upper level ridging is providing
easterly flow across SW Florida through the period. Similar
to yesterday, this flow will keep the seabreeze from moving
farther than a Brooksville-Punta Gorda line. Morning 12Z
RAOB came in a little drier than yesterday`s with PW at 1.41
inches. However, PW have been increasing slightly through
the day and with sufficient instability in place, thunderstorms
are likely to fire up along the seabreeze late this afternoon
into the evening. The main focus for convection will be along
the I-75 corridor with storms slowly drifting west towards
the coast.

I wish Matt and Scott and the other's would show up here and join in with us. maybe they will come when the tropical season kicks in.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
247 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144-202300-
Inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-
Southern Lake-
247 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.NOW...Through sunset...expect widely scattered showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm to develop along the inland moving sea
breeze. Movement will be slowly toward the west. Threats include
occasional lightning, heavy downpours, and winds to around 30 mph.

$$

TES

Not much happening on radar or any real indicators on visible... this might be a dry evening.

StAugustineFL wrote:I am pleasantly surprised.  The earlier shower dropped .07" in my gauge.  A much stronger shower popped up behind it and dumped .49".  Total of .56".  Sun is out now and the rain should transition towards the interior and west coast.

Source? TIA

well we can see how far inland our gulf sea breeze made it............................

hot sunny and Humid here just after 5 30pm sat and no rain in sight..but I think I remember NWS saying rain in the evening hours...maybe after dark huh.

.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0165.170520T2143Z-170520T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
443 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Dale County in southeastern Alabama...

* Until 515 PM CDT

* At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Newton, or
near Ozark, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Fort Rucker, Ozark, Newton, Ariton, Hunt Field,
Waterford, Dill, Hooper Stage Field, Knox Field, Mabson, Arguta,
Ewell, Cairns Aaf, Dale County Lake, Marley Hill, Phillips
Crossroads, Hwy 231 Pea River Bridge, Greater Salem Church and
Skipperville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

sangria wrote:Not much happening on radar or any real indicators on visible... this might be a dry evening.  

yes that's what happened San..not a drop here by me too

Bad storms coming into the panhandle area's this early sunday morning.........................BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
244 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Calhoun County in the Panhandle of Florida...

* Until 345 AM EDT/245 AM CDT/

* At 243 AM EDT/143 AM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along
a line extending from 16 miles northeast of Lynn Haven to near
Panama City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Springfield, Hiland Park,
Tyndall Air Force Base, Parker, Altha, Moose Pond, Clarksville, Abe
Springs, Allanton, Dirego Park, College Station, Chipola, Camps
Head, Overstreet, Bennett, Brannonville and Millville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

Aug..stay alert up there next few days ok........................................................Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
357 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221000-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
357 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight...mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered strong and
isolated severe storms will be possible with the threat of
damaging winds and hail. Locally heavy rainfall is expected as the
stronger storms will have the potential to produce 2 to 3 inches
in a short period of time and may produce temporary minor flooding
problems.

Moderate risk of rip currents at east coast beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Monday
through Wednesday with multiple rounds of storms with locally
heavy rainfall. Isolated storms could become Severe at times with
damaging winds and large hail possible. Widespread beneficial
rainfall is expected although heavy rainfall totals could produce
minor flooding problems at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

$$

gee looks like some bad weather today thru Wednesday for northern florida..Jenny-Aug etc..stay alert for any severe storms..stay safe my friends...

wow looks like some stormy weather next few days,stay alert folks...

Good Sunday Morning folks!!...well looks like today the fun starts weather wise..heed your local warnings if any and stay alert ok...hopefully tampa bay area will get some good rain again...was dry yesterday here by me....well Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!!

Good Morning!

I thought I might get lucky, but the shield did its job again! Some areas  the north side of Tampa got as much as 3" with a nice late evening cell. This was the earlier one.

sangria wrote:Good Morning!

I thought I might get lucky, but the shield did its job again! Some areas  the north side of Tampa got as much as 3" with a nice late evening cell.  This was the earlier one.

yes rain eluded us once again San..maybe we get some better luck later today,i sure hope so. good morning San

NWS Tampa......
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
A prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur this
afternoon with highs expected in the lower to mid 90s. The
combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to
create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely.
Drink plenty of fluids...Stay in an air-conditioned room...stay
out of the sun...and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outdoors. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water

gee that cold front cant get here soon enough for me..whew..get rid of these 90's lol

Good morning.

Yep Largo, could see some stronger storms here the next 4 days. NWS JAX mentioned the possibility of a flood watch at some point. Rather impressive considering how dry it's been. Hopefully my area can squeeze out a good 3" between now and mid-week. It dries out for several days beginning Thursday but especially Friday into next holiday weekend. Shaping up to be a perfect Memorial Day up this way.

sangria wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:I am pleasantly surprised.  The earlier shower dropped .07" in my gauge.  A much stronger shower popped up behind it and dumped .49".  Total of .56".  Sun is out now and the rain should transition towards the interior and west coast.

Source?   TIA