CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

so far most models keep 92 to a weak to medium Tropical storm,too early yet to know..

GEFS model also puts 92L into south and central florida then going back to the ATL.....

so far it looks like a tropical something will be over Florida in a week to 10 days...most of the models today say so..but unknown is...what will it be and how strong the winds will be...could be just rains..or could be a strong TS..no one knows...im hoping it gets to the Bahama's and then out to sea lol

well found this today..guess I need to buy a few extra things I don't have now.............................Hurricane Kit
Make sure your hurricane kit includes:
Flashlights & extra bulbs
Battery-operated radio
Battery-operated lanterns
Batteries (in different sizes!)  
Matches 
First aid kit
Duct tape
Rain gear
Clock (wind-up or battery-powered)
Plastic garbage bags
Fire extinguisher
Scissors
Can Opener
Clean clothes
Extra blankets
Heavy gloves
FOOD AND WATER
Pack non-perishable food for each person for 3-7 days.
Bottled water (1 gallon/person/day) 
Bottled juice
Two coolers: 
One for drinks & one for food
Canned foods
Manual can opener
Dry pet food

well I have a lot of extra large plastic bags I use for when the leaves fall here...im kinda sure they would cover some of the windows if broken in the storm..but I think i'll buy some extra rolls of duct tape..just in case....and I still have to buy that battery operated Lantern..otherwise my storm kit is finished..hope I never have to use it huh

well just a lil after noon here and I'm hearing thunder but no rain by me yet......

FLC115-181332-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170819T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.170816T0515Z.170817T1200Z.170818T1800Z.NO/
932 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until Friday evening.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park floods.
* Impact...at 7.0 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at Myakka State
Park flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.0 feet on Jul 20
1941.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue

Myakka
Myakka Rive 7.0 7.0 Thu 09 AM 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$

snd some GOOD NEWS, 12Z models not thrilled with the strength of future 92L..yessss....

now this site which I always follow has intensity different..92L could go to hurricane..

latest Euro model still has 82L with Florida in its sights...we'll see in the coming days...

it seems today..the biggest uncertainty with 92L is how strong..or weak the storm will get,most models put it in..or near Florida so far..so this storm we need to keep a close watch on in the coming days.

12Z CMC has 92L into a gulf Hurricane and this time comes closer to Tampa going north,so we watch and wait...CMC still has it coming ashore up in the panhandle area...so far anyway..gee this storm we really need to watch...im so hoping it decides not..to come into Florida....still has time to turn more out to sea..whew I hope it dies.

ok 12Z GFS also has Florida in 92l's sights only the run is slower than Euro's......Mon 28th..

well right now today we cant listen to the models, 92 hasn't formed yet and when it..or should it form..the runs will probably change and there are NO warnings or advisories out yet on it...so we wait this out huh

92L up to 60/60% chance for formation.....stay tuned ........................

Good afternoon. Levi put out a tidbit if anyone wants to watch. He focused primarily on 91L. Fast forward to 7:20 if only interested in his thoughts on 92L.

Thanks for all of the updates Largo! Right now it is a wait and see game, so I'm going to wait with my cerveza and see the clouds drop NO rain on me!

May the islands only benefit from Harvey, and the E.Carib keep him weak and low.

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!..maybe slightly higher rain chances today,good luck to those who do get the rain..nothing by me most of this week..sprinklers on lol.........well blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..have a great day folks!

nothing at all certain with 92L,so we just wait this out and lets see sun-mon what the models are telling us ok..hopefully it doesn't speed up or really get strong quickly huh.

Billsfan.........note the possible rainfall around your area in the 5-day................

well right now we cannot believe the models,overnight there were some changes in tracks,just stay alert and we wait huh.

I really don't trust Harvey's track,now Euro overnight has ended him up by Tex-La...in the far upper gulf.

well just after 6am Friday and local met just said humidity here is about 100%...hopefully the rains today will find my house LOL its been a very Hot and rain free kinda week here...we can surely use rain today.

Morning.  I saw the overnight Euro Largo.  That is interesting it brings Harvey off the Houston coast.

92L won't develop quickly anytime soon.  It is surrounded by dry air and as Levi pointed out it is going to get sheared from the north soon.  The WV sat below illustrates nicely with the ribbon of white to the west of the ULL north of 92L punching due south. Link if the loop is cut off: https://i.imgur.com/TJFFvki.gif

LargoFL wrote:well just after 6am Friday and local met just said humidity here is about 100%...hopefully the rains today will find my house LOL its been a very Hot and rain free kinda week here...we can surely use rain today.

Morning Largo and everyone, Very little in the way of rain up my way. Seems to be going around me. Everyone keep one eye to the Atlantic pretty active.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

Hoping for some rain here too. Barely over 2" total for the month. Yesterday the storms in my area were nearly stationary and would briefly pulse up then quickly wane and redevelop elsewhere. Had one about a mile north drifting my way but it poofed.

hard to see but GFS brings 92L into florida,so far no TS or hurricane...so far anyway..

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well just after 6am Friday and local met just said humidity here is about 100%...hopefully the rains today will find my house LOL its been a very Hot and rain free kinda week here...we can surely use rain today.

Morning Largo and everyone, Very little in the way of rain up my way. Seems to be going around me. Everyone keep one eye to the Atlantic pretty active.
Have a great day!!
John Z-hills

good morning John, yes same here..no rain for days here too..maybe today huh...have a great day also!!

StAugustineFL wrote:Hoping for some rain here too.  Barely over 2" total for the month.  Yesterday the storms in my area were nearly stationary and would briefly pulse up then quickly wane and redevelop elsewhere. Had one about a mile north drifting my way but it poofed.

good morning Aug..yes lets see what today brings us..sure has been hot and dry.

well IF nothing else..the tropics may just make next week, a WET week for Florida,which we all can surely use...it sure has been one weird "rainy Season" huh

Looks like a lull in activity after Harvey, 92L, and the area of interest in the eastern Atlantic. That one looks to hook into the CATL if it were to develop.

Most recent HRRR for what it's worth. Storms for much of FL today but we'll see who gets what when said and done.

Gome..end of August,GFS has a gulf storm that will go into Alabama.........

well if..92L makes it into the gulf,it will probably go up our coast and try to go back to the atl...I just might get some good rains from it IF that happens..so far I don't see any of the major models brining it up to a hurricane except the CMC which NOW..keeps it in the Atlantic....but these models will surely change again next week...stay tuned and prepared.

Good morning all. Seems I am still hoarding all the rainfall. Another round of heavy rainfall hit just as I was heading out the door this morning. It was coming down to hard for me to check the gage, but I guess at least a half inch. Although, my rainy season started a tad bit late, for the most part it has been a very normal summer rainfall wise for me here along the Levy county coast. Inland has been much wetter this summer, while the island of Cedar Key has been much drier.
On the tropics, I don't like the models bringing 92 into the Gulf. It is giving me flash backs of Hermine last year and that was no fun. Hopefully it fades away into the Atlantic before ever reaching land.

waterdipper wrote:Good morning all. Seems I am still hoarding all the rainfall. Another round of heavy rainfall hit just as I was heading out the door this morning. It was coming down to hard for me to check the gage, but I guess at least a half inch. Although, my rainy season started a tad bit late, for the most part it has been a very normal summer rainfall wise for me here along the Levy county coast.  Inland has been much wetter this summer, while the island of Cedar Key has been much drier.
On the tropics, I don't like the models bringing 92 into the Gulf. It is giving me flash backs of Hermine last year and that was no fun. Hopefully it fades away into the Atlantic before ever reaching land.

Good Morning WD..hopefully your rain will reach down to me later today..yes I'm with you on that..dont want 92L in the gulf for sure.

from doc's blog...NWS Miami discussion.........The exact details of the weather Tuesday through Thursday will hinge
on the exact development and movement of the tropical disturbance
currently located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. As
of 2 AM, NHC currently gives this feature a 70% change of developing
into a tropical cyclone in 2 days and 5 days respectively. It is
expected that this feature will continuing moving northwest and
potentially be in the Bahamas and South Florida as we head into mid
next week.
Regardless of development, at this point signs are pointing towards
another period of heavy rainfall across the region for at least
Tuesday and Wednesday. Which, especially depending on this weekend`s
rainfall, may raise flooding concerns across the area. All residents
and visitors or South Florida need to continue to monitor this
tropical disturbance through the weekend.

now In the 3-day and again in the 5 day rain forecast..south florida is in the money whew...

Billsfan and swflwx...stay alert ok.................NWS Miami............
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Increasing tropical moisture is forecast to bring better storm
coverage Saturday into Sunday with locally heavy rainfall. A low
pressure system moving in the from the east may bring widespread
precipitation by mid next week. Heavy rainfall and lightning will be
the main hazards.

Stronger southeasterly flow may bring an increased threat for rip
currents late this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

again I need to say this..no one, not the models nor the NHC etc..really know what...92L is going to do as well as how strong or weak it will be ok...just we in florida need to stay alert and prepared thru next week ok.....hopefully it will just give us some good rains huh

Good morning everyone.

Largo-thanks for the info. I can't see your maps in their entirety, Florida isn't visible. Don't know if there is any way to fix that?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning everyone.

Largo-thanks for the info.  I can't see your maps in their entirety, Florida isn't visible.  Don't know if there is any way to fix that?  

well the maps show Heavy rains for south Florida in the 3-5 day range Billsfan..might be some trouble for those in low lying area's especially tues-wens of next week..stay alert down there for any changes ok...my guess we wont really know anything till maybe Monday on the storm...models are flip flopping and really haven't a clue just yet..ill try to make the pics I post from now on smaller in size..hope that helps.

here is this mornings radar...................(test).........................................