CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG

Euro and GFS so far are in agreement..Sunday might be a bit stormy by you Aug...

oh oh..up to 40% chance of development..........................NHC...
1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for development before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

LargoFL wrote:

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:I'm hoping my area gets some of this rain,and just like PT I'm putting My sprinklers on tomorrow..this 90 degree temp along with no rain is again drying things out here.

Well Hello All,
I had some rain last night. Got .10 in the bucket. Not to bad when we were not to get rain. i'll take it. Largo my power came back on 5 days after Irma. Looks like we might get some good rain chances sat. and sun. All's good up my way.
Largo you might of blew a fan motor if your a/c was turned on when the power came back on. Its called a power surge. I had gone around and turned and unplugged everything before the power came back on for that very reason.
Have a great day!!!!!!
John Z-hills

good morning John,yeah that's what blew the fan motor,and yes I guess it was still turned on..i have to remember that for any future storms..thanks....glad you got a lil rain...my area is starting to feel desert like lol..hope this weekend we do get some..have a great day too ok.

Largo, Put a note in your hurricane prep stuff. That will help you remember.
I have a note hanging by the thermostat so I don't forget.
John Z-hills

Good, no, make that great advice John!

I'll second the great advice. I also have all of my electronics (computers, A/V's, etc) and large appliances plugged into surge protectors. Whenever I lose power, I switch off the surge protectors. When power is gone for an extended period, I start flipping off the breakers.

JRnOldsmar wrote:I'll second the great advice.  I also have all of my electronics (computers, A/V's, etc) and large appliances plugged into surge protectors.  Whenever I lose power, I switch off the surge protectors.  When power is gone for an extended period, I start flipping off the breakers.

Thanks My friends
And yes I know a few people that flip the breakers off.
That makes sure no fire starts when power comes back on.
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:I'm hoping my area gets some of this rain,and just like PT I'm putting My sprinklers on tomorrow..this 90 degree temp along with no rain is again drying things out here.

Well Hello All,
I had some rain last night. Got .10 in the bucket. Not to bad when we were not to get rain. i'll take it. Largo my power came back on 5 days after Irma. Looks like we might get some good rain chances sat. and sun. All's good up my way.
Largo you might of blew a fan motor if your a/c was turned on when the power came back on. Its called a power surge. I had gone around and turned and unplugged everything before the power came back on for that very reason.
Have a great day!!!!!!
John Z-hills

good morning John,yeah that's what blew the fan motor,and yes I guess it was still turned on..i have to remember that for any future storms..thanks....glad you got a lil rain...my area is starting to feel desert like lol..hope this weekend we do get some..have a great day too ok.

Largo, Put a note in your hurricane prep stuff. That will help you remember.
I have a note hanging by the thermostat so I don't forget.
John Z-hills

LOl already done that LOL..many thanks John....hopefully next week I get my new unit and back to normal again.

just a note folks..maybe this becomes NATE over the weekend..stay tuned....

all I'm reading in the nws and NHC discussions..this LOW over on the east coast..so far..gets pushed back into Florida and goes to the gulf...........still a couple of days yet..lets keep a very close eye on this coming storm huh.

sorry Billsfan looks like a lot of rain coming

I'm going to move to Alaska............................................................

so the 12Z GFS has yet another Hurricane coming right up the middle of Florida heading northward,IF this happens we all..get a piece of this..well Euro and CMC have something also coming up below Cuba around the 8th of OCT but winds only around TS strength,still 8-9 days for tracks etc to change..could be nothing,could be something we need to prepare for,too soon to know yet..lets deal with this weekends storm first ok.

LargoFL wrote:sorry Billsfan looks like a lot of rain coming

yes Largo... It certainly looks like tomorrow will be a wash out.

LargoFL wrote:I'm going to move to Alaska............................................................

good grief!!!!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:I'm going to move to Alaska............................................................

good grief!!!!

yes but its just one run Billsfan..it could change the next run, way too early yet ok

well the Caribbean thing is up to 50% over 5 days...............1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the Cayman
Islands northward across Cuba to the Florida Straits is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across the Florida Straits to near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development before
upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless
of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

well even IF..it doesn't develop its going to give Florida some Heavy rains again,those folks along rivers etc that are still dealing with flooding..More is coming and IF it were me..i'd be getting more sand bags huh...and I'm praying the 12Z GFS is dead wrong about OCT

well there is a lot of uncertainty with this weekends storm but in any event..rain chances go way up which for me is a good thing..no flooding here in my area. and I need the rain.

well we all can see whats heading our way whew..sure LOOKS like a lot of rain huh....

well you folks should be getting home soon, so i'll BBL..post away folks,too much from me

Afternoon everyone! Work has been a beast the past two weeks, :-(

I sure hope we see some rain from that mess, my yard is getting crunchy!

Good afternoon. Gonna be a mess up here for the coast and river basins for an extended period.

From Jax: .EXTENDED GENERAL...A very complex scenario setting up for the
region over the next 10 days with several local northeasters/wedge
situations setting up and as is typical of these early October
wedges several lows, whether they be called tropical, hybrid or
extra-tropical, trying to set up to our south and over the
immediate coastal waters.

The main thing to keep in mind, regardless of what we designate
the possible low offshore this weekend, is the impacts will be the
same if it has a name or not. We are currently in a period of
above normal water levels in our estuary system, including the St
Johns River, and the primary astronomical tide each day is going
to be at or above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) for the next week
peaking about October 10-12th along the ocean front. With an
onshore flow of 20 to 25 knots with gale force gusts looking for
the primary high tide on Sunday and possibly Saturday Night as
well to be at 2 to 3 feet above MHHW with high surf on top of
that. Those levels are within minor and very close to moderate
coastal flooding depending upon the location.

Additionally, we will begin to trap tides within the St Johns
River which remains at high levels post Irma. Gradually, but
possibly by the end of next week, water levels in the St Johns may
increase to levels of October 2015 which caused flooding issues
in parts of the St Johns. Much of this will depend upon timing of
the events and as indicated it is very complex and none of this
considers possible rainfall.

sangria wrote:Afternoon everyone!  Work has been a beast the past two weeks,  :-(

I sure hope we see some rain from that mess, my yard is getting crunchy!

san, I have always been impressed with your vocabulary and computer skills for a 4 year old.

Looks like lots of heavy rain coming for the coastal eastern peninsula along with the keys per the updated WPC forecast.

StAugustineFL wrote:

sangria wrote:Afternoon everyone!  Work has been a beast the past two weeks,  :-(

I sure hope we see some rain from that mess, my yard is getting crunchy!

san, I have always been impressed with your vocabulary and computer skills for a 4 year old.  

You just earned yourself a big ole fat #iggy!!!

You two guys are cracking me up over here!

NWS Miami..Fri Sep 29 2017

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...
...BRISK SOUTH WINDS OVER THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Palm
Beach County beaches today.

Thunderstorms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through this evening. Frequent lightning and heavy rain are the main
hazards associated with these storms.

Flooding: There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of streets
and poor drainage areas with training or slow moving storms. Ponding
of water may lead to brief lane closures, affecting travel.

Wind: South winds 20-25 KT are expected over portions of the outer
Atlantic waters through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A large tropical disturbance over the northwest Caribbean Sea is
expected to lift across Cuba and near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula during the next few days. There is the potential for a weak
area of low pressure to develop as it moves north-northeastwards.
Regardless of development, a stormy period is expected across South
Florida through the upcoming weekend with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, along with gusty winds.

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!!..so it looks like some heavy rains possible starting today and thru the weekend..so far not much mention of high winds etc..for myself its the NEXT storm coming out of the Caribbean that IM watching..comes around oh Oct 8th or so..but its still early yet..well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day folks!

NWS Tampa....Fri Sep 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon, generally along and south of the Interstate 4 corridor.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty
winds and frequent lightning strikes.

Sorry Billsfan..looks like a real rainy day ahead down there....................

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles north of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-northeast of
Bermuda.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to southern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a broad
surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A weak area of
low pressure is likely to form from this weather system later today
and move northward near the east coast of the Florida peninsula
through Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next couple of days,
before upper-level winds become less favorable Saturday night or
Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

LargoFL wrote:Sorry Billsfan..looks like a real rainy day ahead down there....................

Yes, it is... wash out!

JRnOldsmar wrote:Lake Okeechobee Nears Highest Water Level in 10 Years

and I just read the dam on Lake O is only half finished..flood level is 18 ft..if that dam breaks whew.

THIS is what IM watching out for,both CMC and GFS say a TS into SW FLA 10/8 10/10..

it looks like Today's storm track has changed..more of a west coast FL event..........

never ever, take mother Nature for granted,she don't follow models, models follow her lol

here is Levi's 12Z tracks...yeah more gulf coast so far..................................

well I hope I still get some good rainfall here,sure can use it....BBL

hey I just saw..today is..NATIONAL COFFEE DAY!!!!..my kind of Holiday!!

oh boy..this weekend is 'PARTY TIME" here in Clearwater................Super Boat races roar into Cleawater Beach this weekend...this simply fills the area with traffic and people from all over,parades and parties etc..hoping the coming rains don't put a damper on the festivities.

gee IF the CMC and GFS are right, this will hit the Irma devastated area..

WD are you around Ft.Meyers area?

well there still is many days yet for this to change huh..................

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1049 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...Continued Sensitivity To Potential East Coast Rain Event...


.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...(Update) Some uncertainty still resides within short-
term models solutions regarding the current unfolding of the
developing rain event. Initial agreement is found with the
increasing and deepening moisture as seen in this mornings 12Z
peninsular soundings. PWATs of 2.29 inches and 2.11 inches at Miami
and Cape Canaveral, respectively, bear this out. Even so, the local
atmosphere has not been fully conditioned as Tampa checks in with
just 1.51 inches. Agreement also is found in a general lowering of
pressure across south FL as an inverted trough lifts northward from
the Keys. These combined trends alone are sufficient to maintain the
increased chances for coastal showers along the Treasure and Space
Coasts. Spotty showers will give way to scattered to numerous
showers (having generous rain rates) increasing across the marine
area while also pivoting northward from south FL. Thus there remains
sensitivity to heavy rainfall potential. Using output from
earlier probabilistic QPF guidance, have sifted out a reasonable
chance for 1 to 2 inches with local 3 inch tallies for the
previously cited areas. The remaining issue is where the
developing (weak) surface low will eventually manifest; whether up
the east coast or west. The latest thinking is favoring an
initial west (inland) skew heading into tonight and the weekend
for the broad trough to provide favorable breeding ground for a
weak developing low; waiting for a better tipping of the hand in
the analysis fields. NHC also remains interested with a 40 percent
chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours, but with
notable timing and location uncertainty. Regardless, the threat of
concern is for recurring squally heavy rain. Additional
sensitivity is present for points along the swollen/flooding Saint
Johns River Basin. A high risk of rip currents continues at the
beaches due to lingering NE swells. Temperature and precip chances
remain on track.

&&

so still uncertainty east or west coast per models.......................