CLOSED Beginning of 2018 Tropical Season for Florida

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
157 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

FLZ045-046-301845-
Orange-Seminole-
157 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
SEMINOLE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 155 PM EDT, a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms were
located over Ocoee, extending southeast toward the Orlando
International Airport moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Apopka, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee and Winter Garden.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2879 8159 2878 8142 2879 8141 2874 8136
2864 8133 2835 8131 2835 8135 2849 8147
2850 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 188DEG 32KT 2855 8151

$$

Sedlock

JR..IF YOUR STILL IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA..STAY ALERT OK..............................

it looks like the serious storms have moved over to the east coast,rains stopped here by me for the moment at least..finally lol

more coming up our way too St Pete in awhile.................................

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

FLZ067-068-168-301845-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
223 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

* At 222 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Canal Point, moving
north at 45 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Wellington, Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, Belle
Glade, Tequesta, Royal Palm Beach, Belle Glade Camp, North County
Airport, Loxahatchee Groves, Lion Country Safari Park, The Acreage,
Golden Lakes, Loxahatchee NWR, Philo Farms, Limestone Creek,
Caloosa and Jupiter Farms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2662 8019 2664 8069 2696 8057 2696 8014
2697 8014 2697 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 193DEG 38KT 2685 8051

$$

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
234 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

FLZ067-071-072-301900-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
234 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

* At 232 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Mile Marker 30 On Alligator
Alley, or 17 miles west of Davie, moving north at 40 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds will be possible with
this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Weston, Mile Marker 30 On Alligator Alley, East Toll Gate On
Alligator Alley, Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27, Intersection
Alligator Alley And Miami Canal and Loxahatchee NWR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists along Interstate 75 must exercise extreme caution driving
on heavy rain. Slow down and leave extra spacing between vehicles.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2605 8045 2611 8069 2649 8068 2642 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 189DEG 34KT 2616 8057

$$

AR

I hope im not pissing people off by posting these NWS warnings? pretty dangerous storms out there today.just want our people safe ok

well tomorrow is another day..good night folks

That webcam shot gave me good chuckle StPete!

A little rain here today - just over 2" in the gauge since 7am this morning. It has stopped raining here, but it sure was a welcome sight.

Scrolling through Facebook a bit and see that a damn was going to fail last night and immediate evacuations had been ordered for those poor people in the line of fire. :-( Landslides as well - not sure if those were caused from the torrential water flowing from a damn breach or what.

Post away Largo

Decent rain here today. .88" A stray rumble or two of thunder. Clouds and rain tempered instability. Fine by me.

Back home, Largo. Stuck in the office all day. Caught some light rain between buildings a few times today. 1.6" at home. Pool is still full -- just the way I left it. I'll have to dump some this weekend.

Wow looks like I missed a busy day for you all.

Sun came out today, boooo lol. Got up to 91.

Saw a radar of ex Alberto up in the Midwest, he looks impressive.

And yes Largo, please keep posting whatever you want. If I'm busy at work I enjoy catching up when I get home.

Congrats to you rain-getters!

It's looking like a potentially bad night in Kansas/Oklahoma. They are under an Enhanced risk and it's going to be late evening/overnight activity.

Hey Largo, I somehow missed your post - We've said it before, we like catching up on what we miss during the day and your posts help us do that!

Imagine if it was August and Lake Michigan was warm? Looks like Alberto heading right for Lake Michigan.

Thanks San for info. Good luck to all in the path of bad weather .

NWS Miami......343 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...Isolated to Scattered Storms Possible Especially Over Interior...
...Patchy Inland Fog Late Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms is possible over
South Florida today with the best coverage over the interior areas
this afternoon into early evening where the sea breezes collide.
he primary impacts will be lightning strikes and locally heavy
rainfall.

Visibility: Patchy fog is possible late tonight over the interior
areas of South Florida. Visibility in the fog could fall down to
below 1 mile at times.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A typical early time summer pattern of showers and thunderstorms
will likely continue through the weekend into early next week.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter

000
FXUS62 KTBW 310838
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
438 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)...
Mid/upper level troughing will remain across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico with ridging over the Bahamas through Friday. Meanwhile
surface high pressure out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to
ridge westward with the ridge axis drifting south into central
Florida today and then into south central Florida on Friday.
For today Gulf water temperatures are marginally warm enough to
see some isolated showers develop and move onshore early this
morning, but the majority of the convection will get going around
midday with daytime heating and the development of the bay/sea
breezes. Best chances will be over inland areas, east of the
Interstate 75 corridor this afternoon and evening. Convection
will wind down by late evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies
overnight and some isolated showers and storms possible over the
gulf waters, possibly moving onshore into the Nature Coast toward
morning. For Friday we`ll see a similar scenario to today as
plenty of moisture will continue with highest rain chances east of
the Interstate 75 corridor during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs climbing into
the mid 80s to around 90 with overnight lows from around 70s to
the mid 70s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday Night-Wednesday)...
A Mid-level trough over the northern U.S. plains and the Canadian
prairies tracks through the Great Lakes during the weekend and
reinforces a trough that resides down the eastern states during
the period. Mid-level ridging along the U.S./Mexican border builds
north into south-central Canada next week. At the surface...the
Bermuda ridge axis initially through central FL and westward over
the Gulf of Mexico shifts to over and south of the Florida Keys as
the reinforcing upper trough pushes a frontal boundary across the
Deep South. The front reaches the AL/GA/FL line by Mon...where it
stalls as high pressure begins to build in north of it.

Slightly drier air...compared to the past few days...works in on a
prevailing 1000-700MB westerly flow through Mon. However...there
will be adequate moisture for isolated-scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Afternoon sea breezes will enhanced the
westerly flow and tend to keep higher shower/storm coverage inland.
The onshore flow will result in warmer than normal lows...highs run
near to just above normal. For Tue-Wed the 1000-700MB flow becomes
more northwesterly with more dry air along with a bit cooler
temperatures starting to spread into northern locations.

&&

Good Thursday morning Folks..and welcome home JR!!..well some scattered showers around florida today,hopefully not like yesterday lol...hope my grass dries out a little,sure needs to be mowed again but i dont like mowing it when wet or damp..........well have a great day everyone!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
536 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

FLZ020>023-030>032-035>037-040-311200-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Union-Bradford-Clay-Gilchrist-
Alachua-Putnam-Marion-
Including the cities of Jasper, Jennings, West Lake, Belmont,
White Springs, Houston, Live Oak, McAlpin, Newburn,
Suwannee Springs, Columbia, Lake City, Oleno State Park, Lulu,
Watertown, Macclenny, Olustee, Lake Butler, Starke, New River,
Doctors Inlet, Lakeside, Bellair, Middleburg, Orange Park,
Trenton, Gainesville, Gainesville Airport, Newnans Lake,
Bostwick, Carraway, Palatka, Anthony, Burbank, Ocala,
Ocala Airport, and Weirsdale
536 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA THIS MORNING...

Latest observations have shown reduced visibility across parts of
inland Florida, especially around Lake City. The reduced
visibility, near a quarter mile is some places, will begin to
increase after sunrise.


$$

Good morning! Raining again.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning!  Raining again.  

good morning Billsfan..no rain here suns out but real Dark cloud bank out in the gulf.

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1032 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...

 Alafia River At Lithia

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

 Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
 Alafia River at Lithia
 Horse Creek Near Arcadia

.Heavy rain over the past weeks has caused rivers and creeks
to rise across the area. Levels will need to be monitored
closely the next few days as more rain is in the forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC115-011431-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.180528T0200Z.180604T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
 The Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
* Until further notice.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 7.5 feet by early Monday
 morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 8.5 feet...Most of Myakka State Park is closed.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...The main road at Myakka State Park floods.
* Impact...at 7.0 feet...Trails, picnic areas, and parking lots at
 Myakka State Park flood.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 7.5 feet
 on Sep 15 1943.

&&


              FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Myakka
Myakka Rive   7.0   7.1  Thu 10 AM   7.1    7.3    7.4    7.5    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226

well GFS was right about Alberto 2 wks out forming lets see IF This one forms too.

That Myakka River sure gets a lot of flood warnings.

Going out on a limb to say that, for Florida as a whole, this was the wettest May since... ever. Maybe not for certain spots, but state wide. Will look into it when FCC comes out with their monthly report.

And the first two weeks of May were bone dry! Wasn't south Florida in a severe drought?

Starting with last month's drought monitor

I'm sure that map looks wayyyy different now. Which probably means we'll go back to drought soon. I'm so afraid we're going to have a hot and dry summer. Especially where I live in east Broward. Hope I'm wrong!

StPeteFLwx wrote:Going out on a limb to say that, for Florida as a whole, this was the wettest May since... ever. Maybe not for certain spots, but state wide.  Will look into it when FCC comes out with their monthly report.

And the first two weeks of May were bone dry!  Wasn't south Florida in a severe drought?

yesterday my local tv met showed a Florida map and no area of florida except way western panhandle area's were dry, NONE in drought and fire danger is gone for now

NWS TAMPA...509 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
through tonight. the storms begin later this morning with
increasing coverage though the afternoon...especially inland.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Some area rivers are at or approaching flood stage. Residents
living along rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware
of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground should
flooding be observed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day...
especially in the afternoons and early evenings. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy
rains...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Some area rivers will continue at or near flood state for the
next few days. Residents living along rivers or faster flowing
streams should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move
to higher ground should flooding be observed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

RKR

Good Friday Morning Folks and TGIF!! well it seems we are getting back to our normal weather pattern with our usual possible afternoon showers huh..sounds good to me,alot of area's need a drying out period...well have a great day everyone!

Good morning and happy Friday. Today is the last day of school for my kids and my wife who is a middle/high math teacher. This has to be the quickest school year on record as it feels like the first day was just a blink away. They however are really looking forward to the break and I am glad they get it. Anyway, it does look like our normal summer-time pattern is setting up for now. This was by far the wettest May I have seen since I have been recording daily rainfall totals. I ended up with 6.76" which is normal for June, but May is typically around 2" total for the month. I know Largo has been posting a tropical cyclone that keeps showing up in at least one of the models sometime in mid June, but over all the models I have looked at seem to think we might be in for a prolonged drying period at least for the first two weeks of June. In fact, NWS and our local met out of Gainesville has actually mentioned a front clearing the area early next week bringing in dry air and little to no rain chances for most of the week. I for one hope this verifies as my grass has yet to be mowed this season and I need some time to do it next week.

LargoFL wrote:well GFS was right about Alberto 2 wks out forming lets see IF This one forms too.

Largo, I wouldn't buy into the GFS right now. Everything seemed to be perfect for an early season tropical cyclone to form and it did happen with STS Alberto. Now, the conditions have changed since then and the models are forecasting a less than favorable environment in the SW Carrib and GOM for the next several weeks. The MJO has entered a phase that does not promote development in the region the GFS is hinting at. For that reason, it is looking very unlikely that a storm occurs in this area in June, and I wouldn't pay too much attention to the current model output.

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well GFS was right about Alberto 2 wks out forming lets see IF This one forms too.

Largo, I wouldn't buy into the GFS right now. Everything seemed to be perfect for an early season tropical cyclone to form and it did happen with STS Alberto. Now, the conditions have changed since then and the models are forecasting a less than favorable environment in the SW Carrib and GOM for the next several weeks. The MJO has entered a phase that does not promote development in the region the GFS is hinting at. For that reason, it is looking very unlikely that a storm occurs in this area in June, and I wouldn't pay too much attention to the current model output.

ive been watching the upgraded GFS and im finding out NOT to follow any tracks but do Follow Formation of a storm..its in predicting "formation" at many more hours than the rest is where it excels but like all of them..sometimes its wrong

Good afternoon. It was indeed a very wet May. It was my 2nd wettest in 7 years of keeping records. Total was 7.97" 30 year average per the Florida Climate Center is 3.09". I had a rogue event in May 2013 with 14.89" over 3 days. The remainder of the month was dry with a total of 15.69" There was a "local nor'easter" event with a stalled frontal boundary just to the south with moisture streaming in on the NE flow off the Atlantic. Of the 14.89", 9.66" fell in one day! I remember that event like it was 5 years ago. Wait, it was 5 years ago!

Here are the CoCoRaHS obs from the area taken the morning of May 3rd, 2013.

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
138 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-012100-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
138 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.NOW...

...Scattered Lightning Storms Increasing this Afternoon...

Showers and scattered lightning storms will move to the east-
northeast at 15 to 20 mph across the I-4 corridor, including the
theme parks, metro Orlando and Saint Cloud through mid-afternoon.
Briefly heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will occur within the
stronger storms. Storms will eventually move to the east coast late
this afternoon.

$$


$$

It's good to get some dry-out time, but I really hope that it's not that long. With westerlies in place, I'm not expecting much action here. POP forecast is 30% or less for the next 8 days, and that's for more inland locs. On-shore breeze will be good for the beach!

Heard that Lakeland (just east of Tampa Bay) had 2nd wettest May, at 15.?". Record is 1979 at 16.03.

JRnOldsmar wrote:It's good to get some dry-out time, but I really hope that it's not that long.  With westerlies in place, I'm not expecting much action here.  POP forecast is 30% or less for the next 8 days, and that's for more inland locs.  On-shore breeze will be good for the beach!

Heard that Lakeland (just east of Tampa Bay) had 2nd wettest May, at 15.?".  Record is 1979 at 16.03.

yes i saw that too..and now we know where they got the idea for naming that town..Lake-land lol

Happy Friday everyone!

I'm VERY happy with my rainfall the last two weeks, since the first two were lacking. I ended up with 9.03" for the month of May with 8.29" of that since the 15th!

I know everyone wants a drying out period, but I sure like the rain cooled atmosphere for us. Nothing but hot now.

JRnOldsmar wrote:...Heard that Lakeland (just east of Tampa Bay) had 2nd wettest May, at 15.?".  Record is 1979 at 16.03.

Looks like areas from Lakeland to Port Charlotte were in the 14-15" range.  Port St. Lucie and Coral Springs look to be in that range as well.

NWS MIAMI...430 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF EAST COAST...

This is the hazardous outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Lightning: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
across South Florida particularly from around noon into the early
evening hours. Scattered activity is most likely to take place from
the metro sections of palm beach south to the western most sections
of Broward county and westward across inland Collier county through
interior sections of South Florida between the Lake Okeechobee region
and Alligator Alley. Occasional lightning strikes, brief heavy
downpours, and gusty winds main concerns with any storm.

Temperatures: Apparent temperatures topping just above 100 degrees
are forecast across sections of the interior between Tamiami Trail
and Lake Okeechobee inland from both the west and east coast metro
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A typical early time summer pattern of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue through the next week. After a
relatively dry Sunday, scattered mostly afternoon evening showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to return favoring interior and
eastern sections of South Florida early part of the week with focus
shifting back to the interior and west coast by late in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Good Saturday Morning folks!!..looks like a drier warmer day ahead...enjoy...have a wonderful day folks!

Morning. Had quite a few storms pop in the area yesterday with many totals on the order of 1-2". They all managed to skirt around me to the north, south, east, and west. 60% chance later today.

After a bit of an insurance goof-up things seem to be on track with my roof replacement. I meet with the contractor later this morning. The company has put up 3 roofs within a block of me the past week. The work looks good. My two neighbors directly across the street had their materials delivered yesterday and are scheduled to get theirs done this week. Lot's of action in "the hood".

Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Sat Jun 02 2018

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...southeastern Alabama...northern
Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 021555Z - 021700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage and intensify through the afternoon. Wind damage and
occasional hail are the main threats. A WW issuance is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic and satellite imagery indicate
increasing convective coverage and intensity - particularly near and
south of CSG. Objective analyses across this region indicate an
uncapped and modestly sheared airmass, with surface-based CAPE
values exceeding exceeding 3000 J/kg. With time, gradual upscale
growth of the cluster near CSG is expected, along with continue
development across the region ahead of this cluster.
Forward-propagating bows and isolated cells will be capable of both
wind damage and isolated hail instances as storms migrate
south-southeastward. Given the aforementioned atmospheric factors,
a WW is being contemplated for portions of the region and may be
needed around 17Z or so.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/02/2018

Hello everyone. They said on the radio we got 16.97 inches of rain for May.