CLOSED Beginning of 2018 Tropical Season for Florida

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Aletta located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo
Mexico.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has increased during the past several hours, but remains
disorganized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive
for development later today, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

clouds out in the gulf by my area getting thicker..just had a quick shower briefly here too.

well so far all the Tropical activity is out in the Pacific ocean, nothing so far in the atlantic for us to worry about. so far anyway

Good morning... Some parts of Broward got hammered yesterday. Hail, bad flooding in areas. Starting out today partly cloudy.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning... Some parts of Broward got hammered yesterday.  Hail, bad flooding in areas.  Starting out today partly cloudy.

yeah your area under the gun today again Billsfan stay safe ok.marginal chances down there for some severe storms etc.

Hmmm Gusts up t0 55mph possible..stay alert billsfan..............................Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
426 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
082030-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
426 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...
...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop over
the peninsula this afternoon, esepcailly over the interior. The
primary threats are lightning, small hail, and gusty winds.

Hail: Small hail may be possible with any stronger storms today,
especially over the northern interior, up by Lake Okeechobee.

Wind: Thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing wind
gusts up to 55 mph. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as
well with some of the stronger storms near the Lake Okeechobee
region.

Waterspout: Isolated waterspouts will be possible over Lake
Okeechobee today and the near shore Atlantic waters, in association
with any thunderstorm activity.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the
afternoons. The focus will be toward the interior Friday into early
next week. The primary threat will be lightning, although gusty winds
and locally heavy rain are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind and waterspouts to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

well almost 11am here and no rain here yet but overhead clouds keeping the sun away, i doubt it will reach 90 here in my area, maybe mid 80's tops.

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
904 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-081530-
Inland Volusia County-Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-
Southern Brevard County-Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-
Martin-Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
904 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.NOW...
A weak impulse aloft will lift north and produce scattered
showers from Osceola county to around Cape Canaveral and eastern
Orange county this morning. Some of these showers may affect
eastern sections of metro Orlando.

Once the atmosphere gets heated up today, it should be another busy
day with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing. Short
range models suggest scattered storms will form along the east coast
sea breeze early this afternoon, especially along the Space and
Treasure Coasts, while west coast sea breeze storms move toward Lake
county. A merger of the east and west coast boundaries should
ignite the strongest storms along the Interstate 4 corridor late in
the afternoon or early in the evening.

The main hazard will be frequent lightning strikes with some of the
storms. A few storms could become severe and produce large hail and
damaging winds. Quick 2 or 3 inch downpours are also possible, which
will produce considerable ponding of water on roadways and other
poorly drained surfaces.

$$


$$
RL

well almost 12:30 here and around Florida a few spots getting some showers,good luck to those who need rain and are getting it today

Special Marine Warning
AMZ651-671-081700-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0104.180608T1600Z-180608T1700Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
1200 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
Coastal waters from Miami Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 10 to 40 NM...

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1159 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
waterspouts was located 21 nm east of Triumph Reef, moving north at
5 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small
hail.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

* The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.

Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily
overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor
immediately.

Report severe weather to the Coast Guard or the National Weather
Service. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook
and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2532 7961 2541 7992 2575 7989 2567 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 194DEG 7KT 2552 7972

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

BAXTER

suns out here now but some high dark clouds looking eastward towards Tampa.might rain or storm over there in awhile

Good afternoon. Nothing to really report here. Mixed clouds/sun. A couple of storms to the south are pushing off an outflow boundary to the north. That'll be my only chance in the next hour or two. Time will tell.

I can hear distant thunder to the south. Hoping the outflow can "tug" the storm north.

Around round of rain today, definitely not as bad as yesterday .
I'll check the gauge in a bit.

Good luck bills. Seems June is continuing where May left off with some hefty totals.

I'm thinking of tossing the WU radar altogether. Not sure what's going on but it doesn't match up with the eye test when going outdoors to observe. Looks like I should be getting deluged here to the west but just a sprinkle. Gonna have to stick to my phone whether on/off the laptop as MyRadar seems much more precise.

Current WU.

NWS Tampa........Sat Jun 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms can be expected today, with the greatest
potential for a passing storm over the interior parts of the
state...and during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A scattering of typical summer thunderstorms are expected each day
through the week. Most of the storms will occur during the
afternoon and early evening hours and form across the interior
and southern portions of the region. Thunderstorms will be capable
of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and
frequent deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Mroczka

Good Saturday Morning Folks!!..wow I got some Blast of strong winds here yesterday..took down alot of tree branches and pieces of tree's etc....tv met said it was from an outflow boundary wave that came ashore and pushed inland...whew my guess ..60mph wind blast

NWS Miami.................Sat Jun 9 2018

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected across South
Florida today. Coverage is expected to be highest across the interior
and Gulf coast this afternoon and evening. The primary threats are
lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and localized minor flooding.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible over all South
Florida waters today.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts to around 50 mph, generally across the interior and
Gulf coast with boundary collisions later today.

Hail: Small hail up to dime sized is possible with the strongest
storms today.

Flooding: Slow moving thunderstorms will bring the threat of minor
flooding of streets and poor drainage areas. This threat will be
highest across the extreme western side of the east coast metro,
communities across the interioa amd along Lake Okeechobee, as well
as the Gulf coast.

Morning. Yeah Largo, outflow boundaries often have a burst of strong winds in them.

Looks like precip chances on the whole won't be overly impressive for Florida the next 3 days. I'm sure some areas will receive much more than this map depicts while other areas get goose-egged.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Yeah Largo, outflow boundaries often have a burst of strong winds in them.

Looks like precip chances on the whole won't be overly impressive for Florida the next 3 days.  I'm sure some areas will receive much more than this map depicts while other areas get goose-egged.

morning Aug,yes indeed, i sure was amazed at how many branches it blew down here on my block wow..was so fast and strong,sure glad it didnt catch me fully outside..yeah NWS has Low rain chances today for my area. it looks like we are getting into our normal summertime weather huh.

Alert..a woman walking her 2 dogs by a lake near Davie Florida was attacked and killed by a Gator...folks anytime your near a body of water or lake-stream etc,stay alert...I myself always think of gators when im walking My dogs in the park near the lake..whew dangerous for sure...i remember one park ranger telling me..you MUST assume there IS a gator in there..may not be today, but tomorrow maybe...seems they travel at night from lake to lake.

I haven't followed the story but wonder if the woman got too close to a nest. Snipped this from an article from 2 years ago.

People must be especially vigilant during nesting season, in June and July.

“It’s rare that an alligator will come out of the water and go after a human being,” Ron Magill, a wildlife expert and communications director at Zoo Miami, said on “Good Morning America” today. “They usually nest close to the water. If you get near a nest, a female will come after you. Females are very protective.”

StAugustineFL wrote:I haven't followed the story but wonder if the woman got too close to a nest.  Snipped this from an article from 2 years ago.

People must be especially vigilant during nesting season, in June and July.

“It’s rare that an alligator will come out of the water and go after a human being,” Ron Magill, a wildlife expert and communications director at Zoo Miami, said on “Good Morning America” today. “They usually nest close to the water. If you get near a nest, a female will come after you. Females are very protective.”

yes that could be Aug..ive seen gators in the lakes in the parks here many times, never saw one fully out of the water on land..dont think i want to either lol

when they cut the Gator open, the ladies arm was in its stomach!! OMG!!

WD..stay a lil alert up there, that thing in the gulf seems to be getting closer to shore up there,gee it sure had a very Strong outflow boundary yesterday down here..locasl met said it was an upper LOW with a small lower LOW with it.....seems on radar to have weakened today..

Been ducking in/out between chores here.  Publix grocery shopping, check.  Get roofing document signed/notarized, check,  pruning two crepe myrtles and a row of 5 large oleanders which had growth hanging over the house, check, check, check.  Speaking of check, I checked  my lemon tree when working outdoors.  One limb is already showing signs of being weighted down.  Lemons are still small (quarter size or a tad larger) but I'll be having them coming out of my ears this year.  If anyone wants some lemons come late October/early November I'll be happy to ship some out.  WAY more than I would ever use and I wouldn't want them to go to waste.  I had a bunch in 2016 (maybe 400) while last year was a low yield (a couple dozen).  Back to a huge yield this year (easily hundreds). Neighbors rave how good they are and they're HUGE by lemon standards - many over baseball size.

Thanks Aug!

Showers and thunder all around, but nothing at my house

Not sure if the poor lady was from that area, but. I heard it was well known that the gator was in there. I think locals called him Frank

When my in-laws were alive and living in Englewood, there was a little pond with a 12-14 foot resident gator living in it. Every Easter all the up North family would come down and they were (Inc adults) were obsessed with getting him to come out of the water .They would get right next to the water, and wouldn't listen to our cautions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
555 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2018

FLZ056-061-255-260-092230-
Inland Manatee-DeSoto-Inland Sarasota-Hardee-
555 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HARDEE...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE...NORTHWESTERN DESOTO AND EAST CENTRAL SARASOTA
COUNTIES...

At 554 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 10 miles northeast
of North Port, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Port, Arcadia, Southeast Arcadia and Limestone.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2706 8213 2721 8224 2750 8197 2723 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 235DEG 24KT 2718 8212

$$

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
539 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2018

FLZ052-056-251-255-092215-
Inland Manatee FL-Polk FL-Hardee FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
539 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARDEE...
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE...SOUTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Ona, or 14 miles northwest of Wauchula, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Bradley Junction and Fort Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2751 8202 2765 8215 2787 8196 2767 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 227DEG 13KT 2763 8203

$$

TBW

It seems whatever storms ARE out there are kinda strong, stay safe with all that Lightning etc ok.

well good night folks..nothing going on around my area so far....................

NWS Tampa.......537 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms can be expected today, with the greatest
potential for a passing storm over the interior parts of the
state...and down toward the Fort Myers region during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms that develop will
be capable of producing gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and
frequent deadly lightning strikes. A few strong storms are
possible...but widespread severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A scattering of typical summer thunderstorms are expected each day
through the week. Most of the storms will occur during the
afternoon and early evening hours and form across the interior
and southern portions of the region. Thunderstorms will be capable
of producing gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent
deadly lightning strikes. A few strong storms are
possible any given day...but widespread severe weather is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Mroczka

Good Sunday Morning Folks!!..weather wise it looks like a typical summer day ahead with a chance of afternoon showers,nothing Tropical so far per models...have a great day everyone!

Morning.  For the past week I'd say I've had 5 days with a storm literally within a mile or two but stay to my north, south, east, or west.  I've had .06 total in the last week.  HRRR is was showing some promise for my area today but not on the last run, lol.  Fingers crossed.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  For the past week I'd say I've had 5 days with a storm literally within a mile or two but stay to my north, south, east, or west.  I've had .06 total in the last week.  HRRR is was showing some promise for my area today but not on the last run, lol.  Fingers crossed.

morning Aug, yes little chance for rain here also..better chances inland,,one good thing,it looks like no tropical storm stuff bothering Florida for awhile..so far anyway.

  Through 7pm today..............

Morning everyone!
Largo- when does your daughter arrive?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Morning everyone!
Largo- when does your daughter arrive?

good morning Billsfan, she and her family have been here all week, they go home tuesday,most of this week they and my wife have been over at Disney world..they got back here last night..me and the dogs had a very ..hmmm restful week LOL

sangria wrote:   Through 7pm today..............

morning San!!

NWS Miami.............1036 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.NOW...
Scattered thunderstorms will affect portions of Miami-Dade,
Broward and Palm Beach Counties as well as the Atlantic waters
through 1pm. The main hazards will be the potential for frequent
cloud to ground lightning, heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds.
The heavy rain could lead to ponding of water on roadways in poor
drainage areas.

$$

Hagen

AUG......................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1142 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

FLZ040-101615-
Marion FL-
1142 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM EDT...

At 1141 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Williston, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 mph can be expected along with possible minor wind
damage.

Locations impacted include...
Citra, Reddick, McIntosh, Flemington and Lowell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning may begin occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2933 8239 2948 8237 2949 8222 2947 8221
2946 8219 2945 8219 2946 8221 2946 8222
2943 8221 2943 8217 2942 8215 2943 8214
2943 8212 2944 8210 2943 8210 2923 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 283DEG 9KT 2941 8231

$$

SHASHY

I dont know how good..this model is but, if this happens our gulf coast could feel something...........

short term--NWS Melbourne.......1158 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.NOW...
Scattered showers and storms will move east across north Lake
county and into Volusia county through early to mid afternoon.
Additional storms should develop southward to between Cape
Canaveral and Orlando through early evening.

Isolated storms are expected to form on the east coast sea breeze,
mainly inland of the Treasure Coast this afternoon and into early
evening.

Be weather aware today and seek shelter indoors at the first sound
of thunder. Mariners should be cautious of storms approaching from
the west and be prepared to seek safe harbor, particularly along the
Volusia coast and down to around Cape Canaveral.

$$
RL

LargoFL wrote:

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Morning everyone!
Largo- when does your daughter arrive?

good morning Billsfan, she and her family have been here all week, they go home tuesday,most of this week they and my wife have been over at Disney world..they got back here last night..me and the dogs had a very ..hmmm restful week LOL

Bwahahahaha at "restful" Largo!

Is the ICON model something new? I've not heard of it before

ECSB is slowly making it's way to the I-95 corridor. Some storms popping along it at the coast.