Re: CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:47 am

Billsfan I found this on the web..thought you should see it ok..NOTHING Official in this run... CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 DokSHO-VsAY9UgW

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 DokSHO-VsAY9UgW

by severstorm Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:26 am

Morning All,
Had a good shower yesterday afternoon .17 in the bucket. Gives me .33 in the bucket this month and 50.03 for the year. About Avg.
My vacation was really good. Outstanding country in the Smokes. Lots of people also. Leaves were starting to change on the highest peaks.
Keep an eye to the south. This one looks like it has potential. We shall see.
Have a great day!!!!!!
John Z-hills

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:31 am

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Had a good shower yesterday afternoon .17 in the bucket. Gives me .33 in the bucket this month and 50.03 for the year. About Avg.
My vacation was really good. Outstanding country in the Smokes. Lots of people also. Leaves were starting to change on the highest peaks.
Keep an eye to the south. This one looks like it has potential. We shall see.
Have a great day!!!!!!
John Z-hills

good morning John, glad your area got some rain,yeah fall has begun in area's of the country,out west some mountain area's had snow too, no such luck here lol..have a wonderful day.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:34 am

well it seems a lil cooler outside this early morning..but high of 94 later they say whew.

by waterdipper Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:54 am

Good Wednesday morning. Not much new going on here the last several days. It feels slightly cooler this AM at 69, but the biggest difference is my glasses didn't fog up when I went outside. This is a promising step in the right direction.
I had a brief rain shower yesterday that dropped .10 in the bucket an helped knock the dust down on my road. Looks like the rest of the week will be dry as is normal for October.
I am keeping a watchful eye on the tropics. Seems all the models are convinced that something is going to form, but none of the models seem to have a handle on where the storm goes. At present it appears it could go anywhere from the Central Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking at the pattern, I am leaning on something moving north into the FL straights then NE into the Bahamas and then eventually up the east coast of FL (offshore) before recurving OTS. Hopefully it is just a low pressure system that brings some rain to South FL and nothing else. I definitely don't want to see anything get into the Gulf with the heat content and high pressure dominating the area as it could really become a monter.

by BillsfaninSoFla Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:30 am

Good morning everyone!

Yes, local Met mentioned the potential for something to affect us. Seems a wee bit early for them to mention anything, so we shall see!

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but it feels just a tad cooler this morning, maybe just less humidity?

Have a good day all.

by JRnOldsmar Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:41 am

Well timed quarter inch of rain and lingering clouds yesterday to cool down the evening, then a dryer morning (as everyone seems to be noticing) felt rather pleasant, though WD's 69 sounds really nice!!

I do love going thru the Smokies, John. Beautiful part of the country.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:01 am

FV3 same as NavGem..although crosses SF then into gulf then North....................... CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Fv3p_mslp_uv850_watl_43

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Fv3p_mslp_uv850_watl_43

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:04 am

its important to say..the models have no idea where or even IF a tropical something forms and where it goes ok..but i think we can count on some good rain comes where ever it Does go huh..regardless of development..i know south florida needs rain real bad.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:07 am

local met says maybe by sunday the models may have a better idea on what will happen and yeah maybe where it goes..still many days to wait and see

by BillsfaninSoFla Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:07 am

JRnOldsmar wrote:Well timed quarter inch of rain and lingering clouds yesterday to cool down the evening, then a dryer morning (as everyone seems to be noticing) felt rather pleasant, though WD's 69 sounds really nice!!

I do love going thru the Smokies, John. Beautiful part of the country.

Never been there, but it's a place we've talked of perhaps moving some day.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:47 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
JRnOldsmar wrote:Well timed quarter inch of rain and lingering clouds yesterday to cool down the evening, then a dryer morning (as everyone seems to be noticing) felt rather pleasant, though WD's 69 sounds really nice!!

I do love going thru the Smokies, John. Beautiful part of the country.

Never been there, but it's a place we've talked of perhaps moving some day.

I drove thru the smokies several times, even stayed in a motel there overnight..and it was winter, a bad mistake stopping, should have kept going, snow and ice closed the road for a day..

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:50 am

6Z GFS model has it by the bahama's..crossing thru SF into the gulf..good rainmaker..... CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_34

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_34

by BillsfaninSoFla Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:41 am

LargoFL wrote:
BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
JRnOldsmar wrote:Well timed quarter inch of rain and lingering clouds yesterday to cool down the evening, then a dryer morning (as everyone seems to be noticing) felt rather pleasant, though WD's 69 sounds really nice!!

I do love going thru the Smokies, John. Beautiful part of the country.

[]Never been there, but it's a place we've talked of perhaps moving some day. [/b]

I drove thru the smokies several times, even stayed in a motel there overnight..and it was winter, a bad mistake stopping, should have kept going, snow and ice closed the road for a day..

Hmmm.... changing mind about moving there.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:59 pm

well around here there is a nice breeze and in walking in the park earlier it seemed cool and was a great walk..never sweated at all FINALLY lol..for myself i love Florida when the Humidity is LOW

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:14 pm

hmmm 1977 January in Tampa Florida............................................................. CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 AR-301199426

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:28 pm

hmmm January 1977 it even snowed down in Fort Lauderdale?......per Sun Sentinal newspaper

by PuppyToes Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:32 pm

Oh wow, is that a AMC Gremlin on the right? No snow!

by BillsfaninSoFla Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:58 pm

Yes Largo it did indeed snow in Fort Lauderdale, I didn’t live here but I know people that did.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:10 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Yes Largo it did indeed snow in Fort Lauderdale, I didn’t live here but I know people that did.

ok thanks..it sure must have brought everyone outside to see it...newspaper said it was the only snow they ever had down there...i think in florida at times it Does get cold enough for snow..but when the cold front comes..the air dries out..no ammo to make the snow flakes up above.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:15 pm

i guess up in Aug's area they have seen snow more often than further downstate huh.

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:16 pm

PuppyToes wrote:Oh wow, is that a AMC Gremlin on the right? No snow!

yes it could be a gremlin, not too sure, cant really see the whole car

by LargoFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:19 pm

by BillsfaninSoFla Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:28 pm

I’m sure everyone was going bonkers. Think if they had the technology and social media back in ‘77.

by StPeteFLwx Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:21 pm

Florida Climate Summary for September
Florida Climate Center

Was very hot everywhere, very wet in the panhandle (Pensacola +12" above normal!), dry along the east coast.

Tampa and Melbourne broke heat records from the 1930s.

Noticeably dryer air here this morning, dog was feeling a little frisky on his walk. Until an old MG convertible backfired as it passed by, then it was all 'the sky is falling' until he got home.

by StAugustineFL Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:44 pm

There was snow near my area just last January. None fell here. Just had a cold 35 degree rain that totaled over an inch while points north and west saw the white stuff.

Here's a news video I found. I was hoping and praying to see it but not meant to be. Sad

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/january-3-2018-it-snowed-in-florida

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:03 am

StPeteFLwx wrote:Florida Climate Summary for September
Florida Climate Center

Was very hot everywhere, very wet in the panhandle (Pensacola +12" above normal!), dry along the east coast.

Tampa and Melbourne broke heat records from the 1930s.

Noticeably dryer air here this morning, dog was feeling a little frisky on his walk. Until an old MG convertible backfired as it passed by, then it was all 'the sky is falling' until he got home.

yeah my dogs loved their walks yesterday..felt a lil cooler and a nice breeze too

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:05 am

StAugustineFL wrote:There was snow near my area just last January. None fell here. Just had a cold 35 degree rain that totaled over an inch while points north and west saw the white stuff.

Here's a news video I found. I was hoping and praying to see it but not meant to be.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/january-3-2018-it-snowed-in-florida

thanks Aug,great pics in there

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:01 am

NWS Miami...454 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST...
...LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic
beaches.

Flooding: Showers and thunderstorms today are capable of heavy
rainfall. This may lead to localized flooding of urban areas.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible from late morning into this
afternoon. Lightning and gusty wind are the primary hazards.

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:03 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
324 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

...Heat Continues through the Weekend...

Afternoon high temperatures to remain about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal which is enough to break a few October records
the next 4 days.

&&

.Climate...
Record high temperatures for Thursday, October 4, 2018
- Brooksville (BKV): 92 in 2012
- Tampa (TPA): 92 in 2007
- St Petersburg/Clearwater (PIE): 93 in 2007
- Saint Petersburg (SPG): 91 in 2007
- Lakeland (LAL): 96 in 1986
- Winter Haven (GIF): 92 in 2012
- Sarasota-Bradenton (SRQ): 93 in 2016
- Punta Gorda (PGD): 93 in 2007
- Fort Myers (FMY): 95 in 1990

&&

.Short and Long Term Forecast (Today-Wednesday)...
The never ending strong upper level ridge dominates the
area through the weekend with an upper level closed low
developing across the western U.S. Both the GFS and ECMWF
hint at long wave pattern breaking down late next week.

Satellite showed showers and storms over the Bahamas and the
models forecast this moisture (PW near 2") across the south
half of Florida today and tonight. Rain chances range from
20% in Tarpon Springs to 50% in Fort Myers. Dry air moves
across the area Friday and remains through the weekend with
mainly isolated thunderstorms expected. Rain chances go up
next week as the upper level ridge begins to move eastward
and southerly upper level winds develop across area bringing
tropical moisture northward.

The National Hurricane Center was discussing the extensive
area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms in the western
Caribbean Sea and gives it a 30% chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone in the next 5 days.

&&

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:08 am

Good Thursday Morning folks!!..well heat wave still with us today and as i walked the dogs this morning it didnt feel as cool and nice as it did yesterday..well nothing new on the tropics..although about 4-5 of the models put a tropical system in the gulf next week..still way too soon...its a wait and see situation..have a wonderful day everyone..the weekend is fast approaching!!

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:14 am

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:18 am

well IF i lived up along the northern gulf, i'd be checking my plans and preps etc, just in case..it seems most of the models put a storm ashore somewhere up there ,mid to late next week huh..so far anyway

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:21 am

the test FV3 model overnight moves a storm into SF then crosses FL to around Tampa bay then into the gulf and up to panhandle and northern gulf states..but wayyyy too early yet to know..maybe sunday/monday

by waterdipper Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:37 am

Beautiful morning here in Levy County. Checking in at 66 degrees, and it feels nice. The heat will return by mid day, but at least we are trending in the right direction. I have a big annual 2 day work meeting in Cedar Key the middle of next week. Last year our meeting was cancelled by Hurricane Irma. We will see what happens this year. Hopefully it will go on without a hitch. If we have to cancel again this year due to a storm hitting the state I am going to kindly request we never schedule another one of these meetings.

by waterdipper Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:43 am

StAugustineFL wrote:There was snow near my area just last January. None fell here. Just had a cold 35 degree rain that totaled over an inch while points north and west saw the white stuff.

Here's a news video I found. I was hoping and praying to see it but not meant to be.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/january-3-2018-it-snowed-in-florida

That was one of the strangest weather days I have ever witnessed in a Florida winter. It was absolutely pouring rain and 32 degrees out when I got up that morning. Ice had formed on the tops of the trees and on elevated metal surfaces. The only reason it wasn't snowing was there was a large area of warm temps in the middle atmosphere that melted the snow. That would have been one heck of a snow storm if it had materialized as we had over an inch of rainfall that day. I had to drive up to Dixie County that morning and the further north and inland you got the more ice there was. Old Town was without power when I got there as the ice snapped tree limbs and took down power lines.

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:51 am

waterdipper wrote:Beautiful morning here in Levy County. Checking in at 66 degrees, and it feels nice. The heat will return by mid day, but at least we are trending in the right direction. I have a big annual 2 day work meeting in Cedar Key the middle of next week. Last year our meeting was cancelled by Hurricane Irma. We will see what happens this year. Hopefully it will go on without a hitch. If we have to cancel again this year due to a storm hitting the state I am going to kindly request we never schedule another one of these meetings.

yeah its still hard to know since nothing has actually formed yet..but by sunday night, maybe monday we'll have a better idea, but this mornings runs all point to a northern gulf hit..

by JRnOldsmar Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:27 am

LOL on the work mtg, WD. Congrats on the 66 morning temp.

Seems like near record temps will continue down here for a bit more. I'm hearing about a possible front after mid-month and storm late next week. Wonder how these might interact........

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:45 am

Billsfan...are you folks down there getting any rain this morning??....................... CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Radar_flanim

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:48 am

gome...i hope your ready for this possible storm there next week

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:49 am

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:52 am

well whatever it becomes next week..lets hope no strong front comes and bangs it eastward into Florida

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:00 am

i just checked alot of NWS discussions up on the northern gulf coast, nothing about a possible Tropical something coming there next week..but my guess is, they are waiting for an official announcement from the NHC that something has formed and that its going to come up there before they...start mentioning it.

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:01 am

i guess since nothing indeed has formed..no use for them to begin worrying people huh..sounds right.

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:42 pm

jenny-gome and all northern Florida etc..most models have it coming here next week so far.. CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Navgem_mslp_uv850_watl_25

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 Navgem_mslp_uv850_watl_25

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:45 pm

it would be nice if it came in a tropical storm, but in looking at all the models..it comes in hurricane..hopefully a weak one huh..but still 4-5-6 days away and things and tracks can change huh..best we can do is prepare and wait this out, sometimes a front comes in faster than normal and knocks the storm into mainland florida, ive been caught off guard several times like that over the years its why i watch them closely now tap

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:58 pm

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:02 pm

anyone at all making preps for the storm that May come to Their area yet?..none by me so far..too early? suppose it speeds up and comes into the gulf Monday? or worse sunday night?..today i notice the electric company trucks and guys checking over power transformers etc. seemed to be tightning things up, maybe for higher winds?

by waterdipper Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:07 pm

Largo, NWS Ruskin said today it looks like this is not coming to peninsular FL. They obviously feel quite confident in that or they wouldn't have said it.

NWS Tampa Bay‏Verified account @NWSTampaBay · 5h5 hours ago

Latest on the broad area of low pressure area in W Carib Sea. No local impacts expected as system is now forecast to move W and NW into the S to Central Gulf next week, but stay #WeatherReady at http://www.hurricanes.gov and http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov #FLwx

by LargoFL Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:07 pm

CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama - Page 14 DoqwnA5U4AUQQqc

whew i dont want to see THESE tracks verify..uh uh now way lol

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