CLOSED Tropical Season heats up for Florida/Alabama

hmmmm as HOT as it is outside..we surely need an Oktoberfest LOL..Cold beer, Great food etc wait..What Month is it Now???

well CMC model insists on bringing a hurricane up west coast of FL into big bend area......

well CMC is saying next mon-tues-wens could be bad for our Gulf coast area's... now IF NHC etc is saying THIS is..where its going, i'll be preparing this coming weekend...BUT..its only one model..but some times when a model gives the same track day after day after day...i listen to it, now honestly..most of the other models bring whatever it will be..thru the straights of Florida and then northward up along the east coast,,,wayyyy to soon to believe anything huh..........https://2img.net/u/1317/19/66/88/smiles/3912142537.gif

Lol Largo.

PuppyToes wrote:Lol Largo.

lol im not too good with emotioncons

Good grief. Not liking any of this.

Good afternoon. The 12z Euro is showing signs of mischief moving east of FL. We shall see what happens!

Nice day here today. Mainly cloudy with a few peeks of sun here/there along with a few passing downpours. Gauge has .61. Temps have been in the low/mid 80's.

Good for you Aug. wish we could say that. Not a cloud in the sky and hot, hot.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Good Tuesday Morning folks!!..well yesterday late afternoon, i got one of those sea breeze showers..didnt last long but wet everything down outside..i really needed that here..so dry again....well we need to keep a close eye on the Caribbean area and see whats going on down there..once again it shows how well the GFS's upgrade has made its sniffing out storms way in advance huh...well we have days to watch and wait huh...well have a wonderful day everyone

way too early to believe tracks and exactly where this storm will come inland,GFS says SC/GA border area... and the GFS has another LOW near the Yucatan forming in the gulf and going into the panhandle/alabama area..again..we ALL need to stay alert the season is becoming active again and myself i dont like the idea of 2 storms one on either side of our state huh

GFS has this storm as a crossover from the Pacific up to panhandle/alabama...

ok now..where is the Club's Coffee?...lol BBL

Morning All,
Back from vacation. All was good.
Lots to do will catch up later
Have a great day!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Back from vacation. All was god.
Lots to do will catch up later
Have a great day!
John Z-hills

hey Hiya John..welcome Back!!!..hope you had a great vacation!!

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Elsewhere, a deep layered easterly fetch off the Atlantic sets up
and persists into next week over the Southeast, spreading showers
across Florida and the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico
underneath a northward shifting eastern U.S. closed ridge aloft.
This leave room for Atlantic energies and/or a Carribean based
tropical disturbance to work into Florida and/or the Gulf of
Mexico next week to enhance lift/moisture pooling.

well folks..it looks like a change in our weather for a few weeks, just hope no hurricanes for us. or real bad weather like tornado's etc..but the rain i think we all can use huh, i know i sure can

for myself, the 6Z model runs confuse me and if they were to verify..uh uh..im glad there are many days before we will know for sure..run to run changes will come...but im going over my supplies, i think i'll be ok i guess with what i have..stored up pretty good at the start of the season and the canned goods dont go bad etc,...water and charcoal i have plenty..only thing that would worry me is high and damaging winds..hopefully nothing will happen and the storms fizzle out..which...Could happen huh LOL

right about here the trouble starts..notice the 2 LOW pressure systems..........

as I said before..run to run changes in track and strength to come over many days yet..as for today, i wish more showers would come over me.so hot the temps get each day.

as I said before..run to run changes in track and strength to come over many days yet..as for today, i wish more showers would come over me.so hot the temps get each day.

FV3 comes into south florida,then hits central FL then into gulf. builds up to hurricane strength then smashes into new orleans area coastline as a hurricane..remember...many more runs and changes to come..

ok lets leave it as it is today, anyone get any rain yesterday at all?

Whew! Record Temps and No Rain since last Thursday's 1/2 inch.
Work is overly busy right now.
I see the yellow crayon.
Thanks for the updates Largo!!

JRnOldsmar wrote:Whew!  Record Temps and No Rain since last Thursday's 1/2 inch.
Work is overly busy right now.
I see the yellow crayon.
Thanks for the updates Largo!!

ok JR..we have some days yet before we know anything for sure

oh man..Canada today..sure would be nice here huh LOL.........................

LargoFL wrote:oh man..Canada today..sure would be nice here huh LOL.........................

OMG.. that much snow on 10/2 ?? I don't think we would handle that well at all Largo! Some people get scarves and gloves out when it gets below 65...

Where is that Largo?

WB John! Hope you had a good time.

Hey ya JR...

Thanks Largo.... I know run after run can change dramatically, but all seem to have trouble brewing somewhere around Florida.. I don't trust this time of year!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:oh man..Canada today..sure would be nice here huh LOL.........................

OMG.. that much snow on 10/2 ??  I don't think we would handle that well at all Largo!   Some people get scarves and gloves out when it gets below 65...

LOL yes indeed..if we woke up this snow..they would shut the state down..i dont think there's a snow tire in the whole state lol

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo.... I know run after run can change dramatically, but all seem to have trouble brewing somewhere around Florida..  I don't trust this time of year!

its only my guess..but i thing we get some of whatever develops..i hope nothing stronger than..oh..a tropical storm

lets see what the models are saying sunday. hopefully the storm dont speed up

Massive mosquito problem in North Carolina after Florence
"An outbreak of blood-sucking mosquitoes called Psorophora ciliata, or “gallinippers,” which can grow three times larger than regular mosquitos, is being reported in parts of the state flooded by the storm, creating a public nuisance, health concerns as well as jokes that North Carolina has a new state bird."

StPeteFLwx wrote:Massive mosquito problem in North Carolina after Florence
"An outbreak of blood-sucking mosquitoes called Psorophora ciliata, or “gallinippers,” which can grow three times larger than regular mosquitos, is being reported in parts of the state flooded by the storm, creating a public nuisance, health concerns as well as jokes that North Carolina has a new state bird."

whew I hope none of those make it here wow

be Alert and safe down there Billsfan.................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
413 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

FLZ072-172-022045-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
413 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM EDT...

* At 412 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported a gusty shower
producing a waterspout just east of Port Everglades, or near Fort
Lauderdale, moving west at 25 mph.

* Funnel clouds possible with this shower.

* Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Davie, Plantation,
Dania Beach, Cooper City, Royal Palm Ranches, Ravenswood Estates,
Estates Of Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale - Hollywood
International Airport, Chambers Estates, Pine Island Ridge, Port
Everglades, Downtown Fort Lauderdale, Broadview Park, Nova
Southeastern University, Oak Point, Melrose Park and Chula Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Funnel clouds can touch down and produce waterspouts. Although
typically weak and short lived, a landfalling waterspout can cause
property damage and serious injury.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2613 8006 2608 8008 2599 8028 2613 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 070DEG 21KT 2609 8010

$$

KONARIK

Booming Thunder and Lightning overhead by me right now................................

well we have 7-8 days to watch this storm coming..too early to know where it will hit..be back in the morning..good night everyone.

Thanks Largo!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this system late this week and this weekend when the
low drifts over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Good Wednesday Morning folks!! well no rain by my place yesterday,still warm and humid,we need the cool fronts to make it to Florida huh..well have a wonderful day folks..and nothing new on the possible Storm..its up to a 30% chance now but nothing HAS formed yet ok..watch and wait,,,have a wonderful day everyone!!