CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Welp, Michael has attained cat 4 and honestly the way he was intensifying out the gate was not surprising. Even with strong shear and dry air it didn’t impede his RI. Euro had landfall at 934. Let’s see how close he gets. Unfortunately Michael will bring devastation like no other as he’s the strongest cane to hit that area. Sad times ahead.

PuppyToes wrote:Welp, Michael has attained cat 4 and honestly the way he was intensifying out the gate was not surprising. Even with strong shear and dry air it didn’t impede his RI. Euro had landfall at 934. Let’s see how close he gets. Unfortunately Michael will bring devastation like no other as he’s the strongest cane to hit that area. Sad times ahead.

good morning PT!!..yes looks like history will be made today up there..gee those poor people,when it comes ashore it will destroy everything maybe. pouring rain just woke me up here, news said .68 inches so far,guess im close enough to the coastline to catch some of his east side rains..im thankful i needed this rain.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100555
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

ST,PETE..JR.........Pinellas cnty folks..a dangerous day for us also,please stay safe out there.....................STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - St. Petersburg - Clearwater - Largo * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through early Thursday morning - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of greater than 3 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from storm surge flooding. - ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture outside. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFO: - http://www.weather.gov/tbw

well the way the wind was blowing and the heavy rain that was coming down, woke me up but..my prayers for the people in front of this monster storm who will feel and endure his death and destruction..i just hope they got the deliveries of Gasoline last evening so the people COULD evacuate up there

simply pouring down rain with wind here by me again.........................................

this hurricane is a monster in size and strength gee those poor people there

st pete..JR...we are all in both of these cones so we too will be getting a touch of what mike is putting out

NWS TAMPA...(clipped)...The overall forecast philosophy has not changed much for today and
into Thursday, with the main impact still expected to be storm
surge. A few isolated tornadoes will be possible as well, especially
for our northern counties. Winds today will gradually turn southerly
and then southwest and then west into Thursday as Michael rapidly
pulls away from the region. Rain bands currently over our coastal
waters will persist, with some of them moving over land through the
day. Generally, off and on rainfall with gusty winds into the
tropical storm-force range can be expected along with abundant
cloudiness. Rain chances will linger into the first part of Thursday,
but then drier air will work into the region from the north behind
Michael.

experts are saying THIS hurricane will be making History and some are mentioning since its still out in warm waters and strengthening it could attain cat-5 status..

Thanks once again for the morning updates, Largo. The surge peaked up here with the high tide -- not quite as much as I was expecting, but still over-topping the big canal up my way, and I had to wade mid-calf deep to get into my park. I see the update says that the surge could last through tomorrow morning. It has since receded, but I'll be checking it again during future high tides. Today 4pm especially.

This is looking really bad for the panhandle.

and the W.Carib started brewing up something else yesterday???

JRnOldsmar wrote:Thanks once again for the morning updates, Largo.  The surge peaked up here with the high tide -- not quite as much as I was expecting, but still over-topping the big canal up my way, and I had to wade mid-calf deep to get into my park.  I see the update says that the surge could last through tomorrow morning.  It has since receded, but I'll be checking it again during future high tides.  Today 4pm especially.

This is looking really bad for the panhandle.

and the W.Carib started brewing up something else yesterday???

Morning JR and Glad your ok up there, gee its on and off storming by me. but the heavy rain is most welcomed,we have all day of this they said on the news..man those poor people up there.

ok ok lol im making the Coffee...BBL

Morning folks... Micheal is still strengthening, update statement at 6am said down to 937mb.

Morning. Yeesh is all I can say. What a beast.

Good morning.... uggh Prayers for those in his pathway.

Little tiki hut is still there.  Winds are heading offshore, when they turn around everything changes

StPeteFLwx wrote:Little tiki hut is still there.  Winds are heading offshore, when they turn around everything changes

good morning st pete, i just drove down to 62nd ave to check on a friend..it looks like st pete made out ok too with no flooded streets that I saw...but going home there were a few stalled out cars who drove thru the large puddles in the road and their wires got wet and stalled out right on the middle of the road grrrr LOL..it looks like the rainfall is getting much lighter here by me now..almost an inch of rain here this morning, thank you Mike!!

LargoFL wrote:
good morning st pete, i just drove down to 62nd ave to check on a friend..it looks like st pete made out ok too with no flooded streets that I saw...but going home there were a few stalled out cars who drove thru the large puddles in the road and their wires got wet and stalled out right on the middle of the road grrrr LOL..it looks like the rainfall is getting much lighter here by me now..almost an inch of rain here this morning, thank you Mike!!

Hi. Probably a lot more rain in store for us today when that large tail comes ashore

StPeteFLwx wrote:

LargoFL wrote:
good morning st pete, i just drove down to 62nd ave to check on a friend..it looks like st pete made out ok too with no flooded streets that I saw...but going home there were a few stalled out cars who drove thru the large puddles in the road and their wires got wet and stalled out right on the middle of the road grrrr LOL..it looks like the rainfall is getting much lighter here by me now..almost an inch of rain here this morning, thank you Mike!!

Hi. Probably a lot more rain in store for us today when that large tail comes ashore

yes local met says 90% rain chance today and still 80% thru the night,right now still drizzling dogs would not move to go out lol..guess they feel the storm too

poor Jenny up there, she must be scared out of her wits gee...my prayers for those people there.

freshening the Blogs Coffee..sit and have a cup and let us know your here and how it is in Your neck of the woods!!

speaking of coffee...BBL

I listen to a talk show based in Palm Beach, and the host kept going on and on how Michael "came out of nowhere" and no one predicted him. I texted him and said, "you don't follow the right weather site, our group has been following him for nearly two weeks now"... he said wow... I told him we are open to the public and I'd send him the link.

Largo- hopefully Jenny and her family have evacuated. If I recall, she had an elementary or middle school age daughter.

This radar link is amazing. Unfortunately my sister has rental place on Cape San Blas, that little piece of land sticking out west of Apalachicola
disqus

Morning. I’ve come w a heavy heart of about what’s to happen to our beautiful and fauna rich state. In my mind this storm had all the earmarks for a cat 4 but media capped it at a 3 and convinced the masses. Now it’s quite possible Michael could attain close to or even a 5 status. I believe folks might have made a decision to stay thinking a cat 3 is doable. And the the all knew, those talking head Mets knew but stuck w cat 3 story.

Thanks St Pete...

very sad PT...

Yikes, StPete. I'm afraid Cape San Blas is going under for some time today. Best wishes to your sister.

Hey Bills. His name's not Rush is it?!?!? lol

JRnOldsmar wrote:Hey Bills.  His name's not Rush is it?!?!?  lol

LOL... no, Rush isn't on until noon.

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and
become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area
of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening
is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael
will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the
circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due
to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its
transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a
powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at
least day 4.

Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much
anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected
to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving
across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move
rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this
weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.
East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,
and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards
north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be
post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage
where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the
Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and
Panama City.

3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland
later today and this evening.

4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

PuppyToes wrote:Morning. I’ve come w a heavy heart of about what’s to happen to our beautiful and fauna rich state. In my mind this storm had all the earmarks for a cat 4 but media capped it at a 3 and convinced the masses. Now it’s quite  possible Michael could attain close to or even  a 5 status. I believe folks might have made a decision to stay thinking a cat 3 is doable. And the the all knew, those talking head Mets knew but stuck w cat 3 story.

yes but i might mention, one of the weather channel people was mentioning earlier..this storm grew so fast and so unbelievably strong..he said he doesnt know..whats going to happen..this has never happened there before..its making weather history,,no one knew..how strong this storm would get..and..at this very moment its STILL getting stronger and now trying to create a second eye which will give it more time and less weakening........no one knew..not any expert met knew..its one of those once in a lifetime learning experience, we cant blame anyone..this is mother nature saying " so you experts know EVERYTHING i ca do?? oh yeah i'll teach YOU a new lesson..and she is doing that right now huh gee...those poor people up there..i hope the death toll isnt in the thousands..my prayers for them

you folks on our east coast of florida..stay alert in these possible thunderstorms ok.......

the sky above me, still overcast but its lighter in color not that dark grey storms coming color, so far anyway

you young people are witnessing history in the making and many years from now you will be telling your Grand children about it huh...i was about 5 when Hazel hit down there in florida..although then i had no idea what a hurricane was..all i can remember was how worried and downright scared for the people in its path the adults were..to this day i still remember the name

PT are you folks there still getting rain? any wind with the storms?

bands of showers still coming thru here.......................................................

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101528
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph
(101 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

OMG
this is so frightening. I cannot imagine.

I just got an alert on my phone that Michael is onshore? Is anyone watching?