CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

Of the areas! Let’s hope not!

one simply Beautiful song here  https://youtu.be/zXDAYlhdkyg

well finally one real NICE day here..low humidity,a nice breeze and it doesnt feel so awfully HOT like it has been,,enjoy

Yes Largo that is a nice song! They’ve been on Fox n Friends a few times.

well almost 3am and the dogs HAVE to go out LOL..gee..its different outside this early morning..no rain but..a nice breeze here on the gulf side..and its about 69 degree's here by me..and COOL lol..man ive been waiting for this... hope it sticks around for awhile!!

WOW John and WD are going to be loving Tonights LOW Temps up im their area's huh.....

Good Monday Morning Folks!!..looks to be a really nice day ahead for us, Finally those Humid 90's temps have been broken!!!...enjoy have a wonderful day everyone!!

again..lets stay alert this coming thurs-fri-saturday for this Gulf LOW.......................

IMPORTANT...PLEASE READ............(clipped) NWS Tampa this mornings discussion............A non-tropical area of low pressure is
expected to develop over the northwest Gulf of Mexico along
a stationary boundary, and push across the Lower Mississippi
Valley Wednesday night and toward Florida Thursday and
Friday with an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms
across the forecast area.

Timing and strength of this system are highly uncertain at
this time. ECMWF is a bit slower and further north with the
low than the GFS. Depending on the eventual strength/track
of this storm system, there could be a threat for severe
weather over portions of west central and southwest Florida
late in the week. Will need to monitor evolution of this
complex storm system over the next several days.

&&

Well quite possible we could get some Heavy rains/and or storms Thur/fri/saturday..lets see how this plays out thru the next few days,some of the energy for this coming LOW comes from the leftover energy of that Mexican Cat-5 that hits them from the Pacific next few days then crosses Mexico into the western gulf where the energy gets infused into this coming front or something like that..stay tuned huh.

Good Monday AM. Checking in from Levy County. Hope all are well. Weather has been benign here for the last few weeks, but the pattern is definitely changing. We are finally getting cool fronts pushing through North Florida and temps this week look great, with highs in the upper 70's and low 80's each day. The low this AM was 52 at my place with a nice breeze and it felt rather cool compared to the heat we had during the late Summer this year.

It now looks like the models are in good agreement that a LOW will be impacting the state towards the end of the week and will bring widespread rainfall to the state, with a chance of strong to severe storms along with it. The good news is it ushers in more cool, Fall temps into the area for the weekend and early next week. Just in time for Halloween.

good Morning WD!! yeah you got some awesome temps up there this morning..mid 60's down here but nice and cool too with this breeze

Good morning Largo! Thanks for updates.
And thank you WD for update.
It’s even cooler here today! Only 82 and breezy.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning Largo!  Thanks for updates.
And thank you WD for update.  
It’s even cooler here today!  Only 82 and breezy.

congrats on the lower temps too Billsfan!!

I feel sorry for Panhandler folks, might be,,another storm passing by closely..........

Good afternoon everyone!
Been real busy and work will keep me hopping again this week.
Pulled in near an inch of rain on Friday night -- small isolated shower.
Sliders open over night, 65 for this morning's walk, and no 90's in the forecast. High-70's for this weekend after the Friday rains. (hope it works out as simple as that!)
Sure hope this is getting down to you, Bills.

I've already replace a dozen azaleas that died over the last 2 years; and another dozen ground orchids who's bed has been deteriorating for years. Mulching like crazy this year -- years overdue as well.

I hope everyone is doing well, and only get good rains toward the end of the week. If we can hold these temps under 90 until March or April, that would be a very good thing!!

Hey ya JR. thanks for the update. Hopefully work doesn’t keep you too crazy.
Gosh if 90’s would be gone until April that would be great. I’m afraid I haven’t seen the last of 90’s down here. You guys may be in the clear.

Good afternoon. Busy here too (and frustrated at the moment due to poor vendor planning).

Just hoping for some good rain without the severe later this week. Jax is raising awareness but SPC isn't too impressed for now. We shall see how things unfold in the next couple of days before the "event".

Good Tuesday Morning folks!! wow looks like most here are very busy at work..I have to say..thats a good thing.keeps your body and mind active..you'll appreciate that later in life i bet....well a nice day ahead again..not as cool outside as yesterday but still nice..and only a slight 20% chance of a shower..rain chances pick up thurs-fri-sat..well have a wonderful day everyone!!

(clip)..NWS Tampa...............As the area of low pressure pushes across the
northeast Gulf or southeast U.S. Thursday night and Friday,
scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop across west central and southwest Florida. There
remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and
strength of this system as it moves across the northern
Gulf coast/southeast U.S. late in the week, however there
is the potential for severe weather across portions of west
central and southwest Florida. Will need to monitor
evolution of this complex storm system over the next couple
of days.

Cooler drier air is expected to advect across the forecast
area over the weekend in the wake of the storm system.

&&

well lets hope we get some good rains huh friday

LargoFL wrote:WOW John and WD are going to be loving Tonights LOW Temps up im their area's huh.....

Morning All,
You are right Largo.... I am enjoying the cooler temps. Had 55 on Monday morning and 58 this am. Looks like a good chance for rain later this week.
I did read that there might be some bad weather with the front.
We shall see.
Have a great day all.
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:WOW John and WD are going to be loving Tonights LOW Temps up im their area's huh.....

Morning All,
You are right Largo.... I am enjoying the cooler temps. Had 55 on Monday morning and 58 this am. Looks like a good chance for rain later this week.
I did read that there might be some bad weather with the front.
We shall see.
Have a great day all.
John Z-hills

good morning John!!..yeah your having some great temps up there alright..a stronger cold front comes after friday with even cooler temps behind the storms,,im Ready for highs in the 70's !! yessss LOL..have a great day john!!

gome might feel some of that stormy LOW passing by ALA this week too

a glimpse at whats coming towards us thur-Fri......................................................

well tomorrow morning if it still looks like its coming this way im going to take in things outside that can blow around..just in case huh..gutters will be cleaned today since the oak tree's are beginning to drop the leaves..other than that i hope i can get some good rain for a day or two..further north of me the wind may be a bit stronger i dunno..best we stay alert to NWS forecasts next few days huh.

Thanks Largo.

Yes, some rain would be nice! We're hand watering every day with the new plantings. Amazing how quickly they wilt.

Good morning All -- just a quick check-in.
Thanks for the updates, Largo.

Hey Bills. That was wishful thinking on staying below 90 all winter long -- but it sure would be nice.

And Aug -- same here -- second day of frustration, but due to internal incompetence -- I can't blame it on the vendor.

Watching for Friday, whatever it may bring.
Also heard this morning that Willa might be heading toward the SE-US.
Good luck to Mexico and S-TX, in the meantime.

well warm and dry me my area so far

1034 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small craft advisories have been posted for gulf waters west of
the Mississippi River into Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A developing surface low will track across the northwestern Gulf
and along the southeast Louisiana coast Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring multiple impacts to the region.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across much of
the area Wednesday and again Thursday. Total rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. This could
lead to ponding of water on roadways and localized flooding in low
lying and poorly draining areas.

Higher than normal tides are expected Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Moderate to strong onshore winds will lead to
water piling up on eastern and southern facing shores. A coastal
flood advisory may be needed for much of the area for tides around
1 to 1.5 feet above normal.

Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed as
hazardous conditions continue into Wednesday and Thursday as the
surface low tracks across the region. Hazardous marine conditions
will likely persist into Friday as a cold front quickly moves
through behind the surface low Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

$$

stay alert gome..let us know how this storm is ok

SPC Discussion regarding Friday

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper trough will amplify across the Mississippi Valley on
D4/Friday. Broad forcing for ascent along its southeastern flank is
forecast to support a surface cyclone advancing from near the
Florida Panhandle east/northeastward to near/just offshore the
Carolina coast. To the south/east of this cyclone, the warm sector
will support at least modest levels of surface-based buoyancy. In
conjunction with strengthening low/mid-level wind fields, this
destabilization may foster some potential for a few strong/severe
storms during the day. However, subsidence/drying aloft in the wake
of a prior impulse and veered deep-layer flow may keep most
convection relatively shallow, while deeper cells remain sparse due
to weak low-level convergence. Therefore, while some (most likely
marginal) damaging wind threat could evolve on D4/Friday,
uncertainty with this potential is too great for highlights.

Thereafter, the potential for severe weather appears low across the
country through the remainder of the extended period, as an eastern
US trough prevents significant poleward moisture return.

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms, generally capable of locally damaging winds,
may be possible from parts of northern Florida to the coastal
Carolinas Friday.

...Southeast US...
A mid/upper trough will amplify across the Mississippi Valley
Friday, in response to a shortwave impulse digging southeast across
northern Mexico through the period. As it does so, the broader
trough will slowly advance east, with heights gradually falling over
the southeastern US. Associated forcing for ascent should support a
surface cyclone lifting east/northeast from southern Alabama/Georgia
to the coastal Carolinas through Friday night.

Trailing to the south/southwest of this low, a cold front will sweep
east across northern Florida through the morning/afternoon hours.
Although veered surface flow and only weak/modest surface-based CAPE
may limit deep convection some, robust southwesterly 850-700mb flow
of 30-40 kt may support a couple of locally damaging gusts through
the afternoon. To the northeast, the track of the low will determine
how much inland destabilization occurs along the Atlantic Coast.
Multi-model trends suggest some potential for the low to track just
inland, yielding enough destabilization and favorable wind profiles
for a marginal wind/tornado threat along the coast as it lifts
northeast Friday.

..Picca.. 10/24/2018

Good early Wednesday Morning folks!! real breezy outside by me here,it must have woke the dogs up..well breezy and a lil cool outside right now..no rain yesterday maybe later today...have a wonderful day everyone!

wow next Tuesday the High here,,70?? LOL..our roller coaster temps ride has begun..Fall has arrived at last!!

FXUS62 KTBW 240805
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
405 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The Florida peninsula finds itself under deep layer NW flow
between amplified troughing over the Atlantic seaboard and
broad upper ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico/NW
Caribbean. A weak migratory impulse within this flow brought
a few light showers to the region Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, but has advanced off into the western Atlantic
early this morning and taken much of the support for
additional showers with it. Therefore, although a brief
sprinkle is still possible through the morning commute, the
chances for measurable rainfall as very low.

Temperatures are running mainly in the 60s north of the I-4
corridor and lower 70s further to the south. Abundant cloud
cover through much of the night has helped keep temps up,
but is showing signs of becoming increasingly broken in
nature during the past couple of hours. As the cloud deck
becomes less expansive, we may see temps drop another few
degrees before sunrise.

&&

well so far it looks like North Florida will see most of what the coming LOW has to offer, we along the I-4 corridor may get some rain out of it as a cold front comes down the state too..AUG and WD may see more that we do down here but we'll see how this plays out

Good Wed morning. Yesterday day was a cloudy day with some sprinkles in the afternoon. Only amounted to a trace in the rain gauge, but it knocked the dust and pollen down some. Temps have moderated some with the return of moisture, but still better than what we were having. Main weather event of the week looks to start tomorrow afternoon and bring in some significant rainfall for the month of October. Models are currently calling for around an inch of rainfall Thursday and Friday. Behind the front a nice seasonal weekend with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's. A stronger shot of cool air hits Monday sometime and brings our overnight lows into the 40's for the first time this fall. Sounds great to me.

NWS Ruskin discussion with main impacts in bold:


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
726 am EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Temperatures are running mainly in the 60s north of the I-4
corridor and lower 70s further to the south. Abundant cloud
cover through much of the night has helped keep temps up,
but is showing signs of becoming increasingly broken in
nature during the past couple of hours. As the cloud deck
becomes less expansive, we may see temps drop another few
degrees before sunrise.

Short term (today through thursday)...
today...mid/upper level ridging will expand north and
northeast across the eastern Gulf and over the Florida Peninsula
through the day. The building heights and decreasing column
moisture should keep most of US dry today. Increasing
amounts of sunshine through the day will allow temperatures
to rise into the lower/mid 80s along and north of the I-4
corridor and well into the 80s further south.

Our next weather maker will be getting its act together over
the western Gulf of Mexico and southern MS valley tonight. A
series of shortwave impulses will be ejecting quickly
eastward through the Southern Plains and MS valley, forcing
a weak are of cyclogenesis along the Upper Texas coast. Any
inclement weather associated with this system will remain
well to our west through the overnight hours and into
Thursday morning.

During the day Thursday, the initial lead shortwave trough
will rapidly move through the southeastern states, pulling
the weak area of low pressure along the northern Gulf Coast.
A warm front will extend eastward from this low into
northern Florida. As we get to the afternoon, weak upglide
over this boundary, along with subtle synoptic forcing for
ascent should result in increasing coverage of showers and
isolated storms over the Nature Coast. Further south,
overall forcing for lift will be less, however, the
atmosphere will be warm, moist and somewhat unstable. With
even a little synoptic forcing, would anticipate a
scattering of late day instability convection through the
rest of the region. Look for Thursday to be a rather muggy
and warm day within the warm sector of this passing weather
system, with temperatures into the 80s by the afternoon.

Long term (friday through next tuesday)...
initial shortwave outruns the surface reflection Thursday
evening, with a secondary digging trough through the mid-
section of the County becoming the primary driver of the
low/frontal system evolution through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico/Florida Peninsula. The weak area of low pressure moves
into North Florida/southern Georgia later Thursday night into
Friday, with a trailing cold front moving into the region.
As we often see, the best forcing, coincident with the front
will be to our north. However, broad cyclonic flow through
the column and modest low level frontal forcing should be
sufficient to support a band of showers/isolated embedded
storms that will pivot through the region ahead of the front
during the day Friday. Most likely not looking at a
considerable amount of total rainfall in most spots, but
cautiously optimistic based on the gefs and sref ensemble
members that most will see enough to at least water lawns
and gardens.

Any lingering showers Saturday morning down toward Fort
Myers will end early in the day, with somewhat cooler and
drier air filtering into the region from the north.
Conditions should return to the "comfortable" realm by
Saturday evening.

Sunday is currently looking like a very nice day across the
region, with abundant sunshine, dry conditions, and
seasonable temperatures. However, our next front will
already by taking shape in the central part of the country.
Very good agreement among the ensemble members as to the
timing and impact with regard to this next front early in
the week. GFS/European model (ecmwf) both showing a significant amplification
to the pattern over the eastern third of the country for
Monday, with a rather strong cold front driving southward
through the region by Monday night. The scale of the upper
trough forcing and defined nature of the front suggest a
band of showers is likely ahead of this front as well. All
indications are that any rainfall with this front would be
brief, due to the fast forward progress of the frontal
boundary itself. Another shot of cooler and much drier air
will arrive behind this front for the middle portion of next
week.

Lovin the shot of cool air behind the front that is forecast! It's actually been halfway decent here this week, staying under 90 with a slight breeze. :-)

Good afternoon. I'm looking forward to the cooler temps as well but then again, it's been quite "cool" already the past several days. It warms up to the low/mid 80's on Friday but the highs of 90+ and lows of 70+ are gone for some time. Tomorrow night is by far the warmest night with a forecast low of 68. I may join WD in the 40's early next week!

Even I didn’t make it to 90 today! But full sun.

Good Thursday Morning Folks...im liking the overnight model runs..seems they now mostly agree with the Euro, taking the gulf Low into the panhandle then into southern Georgia then up the east coast, and if this verifies hopefully no severe wind here in Florida but..lets see how this plays out..stay alert and safe...well today seems like a nice day for us..enjoy..have a wonderful day everyone!!

AUG..good rain chances today and tonight up to 100% chance..good luck ok!!................