CLOSED Florida/Alabama Blog - October Tropical Mischief

we can SEE where this gulf LOW is going to go..good Luck up there Jenny..........

bad thing is..this LOW will bring ALOT of heavy rain and possible winds to the area's hit by the Hurricane, something they surely dont need up there huh...gee

Spectacular moonrise last night. It would have been great for next Wednesday night!
Wasn't really expecting the cool 67 this morning -- very nice. Not complaining, but not sure I'm quite ready for the 50's next week. Brrrr... lol

JRnOldsmar wrote:Spectacular moonrise last night.  It would have been great for next Wednesday night!
Wasn't really expecting the cool 67 this morning -- very nice.  Not complaining, but not sure I'm quite ready for the 50's next week.  Brrrr...  lol

good morning JR..yeah was cool here this morning..man before dawn the night sky was so clear and looking up. i saw the Perfect full moon..shining so brightly//yesss it would have been great for Halloween night for sure LOL

well hopefully my area will get some rain here tomorrow

LargoFL wrote:well hopefully my area will get some rain here tomorrow

Ditto, Largo. It seems like the chances have been evaporating as we get closer.

JRnOldsmar wrote:

LargoFL wrote:well hopefully my area will get some rain here tomorrow

Ditto, Largo.  It seems like the chances have been evaporating as we get closer.

yeah it sure does, maybe the approaching cold front will give us some then.

just found this site..looks to be a good one..anyone ever use this site?....http://centralfloridagardener.blogspot.com/

i rarely use fertilizer,very sparingly when i DO too...but i do feed my flowering bushes in the spring. none on the grass

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1234 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2018

FLC127-251830-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0112.181025T1634Z-181025T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Volusia FL-
1234 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Eastern Volusia County in east central Florida...

* Until 230 PM EDT.

* At 1232 PM EDT, numerous independent gauge reports indicated heavy
rain across eastern Volusia County, particularly in the vicinity
of Ponce Inlet. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen, with
one report in excess of three inches.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, New Smyrna Beach and
Edgewater.

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is expected over the area
as Doppler Radar shows numerous additional showers training into the
area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8110 2879 8072 2879 8097 2927 8115
2941 8115

$$

Bragaw

well my gutters are cleaned out im ready for friday's possible rain...are you?..just a reminder

well as always,we'll have to watch very closely, the tail end of that cold front/storminess in the gulf tomorrow and maybe saturday.

the Marginal chance of any severe storms has moved closer down to Tampa Bay .........

looks like Aug's area is getting the ATL showers being pulled by the LOW over his area.2:53 pm thurs.......

Back to very, very warm today. No breeze, nor clouds.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Spectacular moonrise last night.  It would have been great for next Wednesday night!
Wasn't really expecting the cool 67 this morning -- very nice.  Not complaining, but not sure I'm quite ready for the 50's next week.  Brrrr...  lol

Don't forget your socks with your flip flops JR!!!

lol San! I used to embarrass the heck out my kids when I did that.

Rain chances have gone kaput for many JR. Bummer. I may end up doing reasonably well here before the front passes through. .13" this PM with the HRRR wanting to drop some nice amounts later in excess of 4" in spots. I'm not sure about that but we shall see. I'll take .5" here.

No impact to FL but I see a system in the CATL with a 90% chance of development.

LOL san - I can't say much having worn socks and sneakers this summer.

I see LARGO is a Jester now. Must be in the Halloween spirit. Boo!

Dogs got me up early, right now it looks like your doing good rain wise AUG..........

well looks like i got .03 rain so far...lets see how this plays out thru today

000
FXUS62 KTBW 260730
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 AM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A complex area of low pressure across the southeastern U.S. will
shift east and heads towards the Carolinas while deepening and
moving into the northeast states this weekend. An associated cold
front will push through the peninsula today and early Saturday
allowing slightly cooler but much drier air into the region. But
before this happens, we`ll have to deal with a cloudy and rainy day
to end the work work although it`s certainly not going to be a
washout by any means. Despite moderate rain chances today (40-70
percent from the Bay Area north) overall QPF looks to be fairly low.
NWP and Hi-res model guidance show a line of showers approaching the
Nature Coast late this morning with this feature pushing south
throughout the course of the day. Not out of the question we see an
isolated thunderstorm but the majority of the activity looks to be
showers. Ahead of the boundary, winds look to increase to around 15
mph or so with some higher gusts. This line of showers and storms
should push through the forecast area by early Saturday with rain
chances quickly diminishing behind the boundary.

Behind the front, winds become northwesterly Saturday as the drier air
filters in for the weekend. It will be most noticeable on Sunday as
dewpoints drop into the lower 50s with high temps topping out in the
mid to upper 70s across the area. Looks to be an enjoyable day outside
for a change! Airmass will moderate slowly throughout next week with
dry, seasonal conditions expected. Highs in the lower 80s appear
likely with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Late in the forecast period, models showing the potential for another
deep trough and frontal boundary to approach the region but we`ll
have to see how this plays out as it still a bit far out in time.


&&

Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!!!!!..so hopefully we get some showers here today and hopefully no bad winds but it looks like we might just luck out and just have a few showers huh..well have a wonderful day everyone..back to sleep for me lol

I am up to .09 inches so far and its sprinkles outside right now..how's things by your area?..

Good morning. Very warm and dry.

Pressure and water level sensor installed by USGS at Mexico Beach pier before the storm


Still there after the storm (right post middle)


Here is what it recorded

Don't flood out down there, Largo. .34 my way this morning, as I raced the line into work. Let's see what that next line does later this afternoon. Weather app says 3p-5p timeframe.

@San: Sadly, the older I get, the colder it gets, and I've lost some insulation over the last few years as I've gotten healthier!!! lol Luckily, the toes are fine, it's the fingertips that lose circulation in the cold. (Raynaud's) Last year was cold enough that I invested in hand-warmers and heated gloves!

Thanks, StPete. Good capture.

Good luck, Bills. Looks like you might have a good Sunday on-tap, but still hand-watering for a bit more.

JRnOldsmar wrote:Don't flood out down there, Largo.  .34 my way this morning, as I raced the line into work.  Let's see what that next line does later this afternoon.  Weather app says 3p-5p timeframe.

@San:  Sadly, the older I get, the colder it gets, and I've lost some insulation over the last few years as I've gotten healthier!!!  lol  Luckily, the toes are fine, it's the fingertips that lose circulation in the cold.  (Raynaud's)  Last year was cold enough that I invested in hand-warmers and heated gloves!  

yeah im waiting for some good rain Later today

hey thanks for that st pete..whew..i read the Last Bad Hurricane that Hit around here was the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921..was so strong it cut a path right thru pinellas creating hurricane pass wow

LOL JR so far its hardly wet the grass LOL

LargoFL wrote:hey thanks for that st pete..whew..i read the Last  Bad Hurricane that Hit around here was the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921..was so strong it cut a path right thru pinellas creating hurricane pass wow

That's up my way, Largo (separating Honeymoon Island from Caladesi Island). Then south of you, John's Pass (between Madeira Beach and Treasure Island) was created by the 1848 Tampa Bay Hurricane.

Interesting reading, if you want to know what a Cat 4 might do to the TampaBay area, except today, there are around 3 million folks living here.

Wiki Link:  1921 Tampa Bay hurricane

The Tampa Bay hurricane of 1921 (also known as the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane) is the most recent major hurricane to strike the Tampa Bay Area. The eleventh tropical cyclone, sixth tropical storm, and fifth hurricane of the season, the storm developed from a trough in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on October 20. Initially a tropical storm, the system moved northwestward and intensified into a hurricane on October 22 and a major hurricane by October 23. Later that day, the cyclone peaked as a Category 4 on the modern day Saffir–Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). After entering the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane gradually curved northeastward and weakened to a Category 3 before making landfall near Tarpon Springs, Florida, late on October 25, becoming the first major hurricane to hit the area since a hurricane in 1848. The storm quickly weakened to a Category 1 hurricane while crossing Central Florida, before reaching the Atlantic Ocean early on the following day. Thereafter, system moved east-southeastward and remained fairly steady in intensity before weakening to a tropical storm late on October 29. The storm was then absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone early the next day, with the remnants of the hurricane soon becoming indistinguishable.

Wiki Link:  1848 Tampa Bay hurricane

The 1848 Tampa Bay hurricane, also known as the Great Gale of 1848, was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay in the U.S. state of Florida and is one of only two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area, the other having occurred in 1921. It affected the Tampa Bay Area September 23–25, 1848, and crossed the peninsula to cause damage on the east coast on or about September 26. It reshaped parts of the coast and destroyed much of what few human works and habitation were then in the Tampa Bay Area. Although available records of its wind speed are unavailable, its barometric pressure and storm surge were consistent with at least a Category 4 hurricane.[1][2][3] A survivor called the storm "the granddaddy of all hurricanes."[4]

Or check out Project Phoenix -- worse case scenario for Tampa Bay.

Link:  Project Phoenix

JRnOldsmar wrote:

LargoFL wrote:hey thanks for that st pete..whew..i read the Last  Bad Hurricane that Hit around here was the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921..was so strong it cut a path right thru pinellas creating hurricane pass wow

That's up my way, Largo (separating Honeymoon Island from Caladesi Island).  Then south of you, John's Pass (between Madeira Beach and Treasure Island) was created by the 1848 Tampa Bay Hurricane.

Gee JR we sure dont need another like that Here..wow

wow street flooding should start soon by me..up to .11 inches LOL..........................

Stay Alert and Safe up there folks..............................Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1253 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2018

FLZ031-032-036-037-040-261730-
Putnam FL-Alachua FL-Bradford FL-Marion FL-Clay FL-
1253 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA...
SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD...MARION...NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHWESTERN
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong heavy showers
along a line extending from near University Of Florida to near
Rainbow Lakes Estates. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of around 40 mph can be expected along with possible
minor wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Ocala, Rainbow Lakes Estates, Interlachen, Keystone
Heights, Melrose, Fort McCoy, Citra, Hawthorne and University Of
Florida.

LAT...LON 2897 8232 2901 8239 2902 8240 2902 8242
2905 8247 2905 8249 2904 8250 2904 8253
2921 8254 2922 8240 2948 8241 2949 8249
2970 8245 2989 8188 2896 8196 2896 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 239DEG 33KT 2960 8244 2911 8253

$$

HESS

OK Lets keep a Good Eye on THIS hurricane next week Just in case a front doesnt knock it away...

LOL Bills... I actually have socks that are called "flip flop socks" I'll have to round up a pic online of them!

Largo, I had nothing until around 8am this morning. It wasn't much, but it should be enough to have a gauge total in the morning.

StPete, thanks for posting that! The second pic was only partial for me but I could see that reading....wow!

JR, my dad likes the little heat packs that you put in your gloves. You snap them and it activates heat for a few hours. Thanks for posting those links!

San i received .46 inches of rain Yesterday, im a happy camper now,most of it came around 2pm as that squall line hit here wow it came down hard and fast.

Good Saturday Morning folks!!..well feels real nice outside this morning, and they say tomorrow will be real nice temp wise..enjoy...have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning. .41" 2 day total from the system up this way. Now it's a comfortable 58 degrees. Slider is open to usher cooler air into the house and AC turned off. Looks like sunny and dry weather on tap for all until Thursday'ish when another front approaches.

I'll be happy when the election is over. Getting tired of having robo call voicemails left on my landline.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  .41" 2 day total from the system up this way.  Now it's a comfortable 58 degrees.  Slider is open to usher cooler air into the house and AC turned off.  Looks like sunny and dry weather on tap for all until Thursday'ish when another front approaches.  

I'll be happy when the election is over.  Getting tired of having robo call voicemails left on my landline.

morning Aug, yeah these calls are really annoying for sure..yeah nice and cool here this morning also,Billsfan may be getting the rain also next Saturday if the GFS run verifies..all Florida may get some some as the front slides downstate.

well things for me to do around here today with this nice weather yesss!!

Morning y'all....

I ended up with more than I thought. That second line in the afternoon was the one that gave me the most. .6" in the gauge and that made me happy.

It's going to be a beautiful day today! Mid to upper 70s is perfect.

Good afternoon! As usual, South Florida is late to the party, still hot today, 91 on the car thermometer. But, the front is supposed to plug on through with lows of 60’s tomorrow morning.
I gambled and am making a pot of chili for tomorrow!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon!  As usual, South Florida is late to the party, still hot today, 91 on the car thermometer.  But, the front is supposed to plug on through with lows of 60’s tomorrow morning.  
I gambled and am making a pot of chili for tomorrow!

good Luck down there Billsfan it is simply Fantastic here.weather and especially Temp wise.. and a real Nice Breeze too

NWS is mentioning mid 70's for High's around Tampa Bay area tomorrow......................