99L Continues to Become Slowly More Organized

Currently the National Hurricane Center gives 99L a High chance ( 60% ) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 48 Hours.



Dry air seems to be subsiding.



99L in moving West at 15mph is in a area conductive for further development, about 1000 miles East of the Windward Islands.
Throughout the day yesterday 99L showed increased thunderstorm activity. This morning it appears 99L's convection has now moved north of 10N in attempts to break away from the ITCZ. This is evident on this mornings Satellite images.





Current computer projections show a wide range of possibilities as it enters the western Caribbean Sea, ranging from a tropical depression to a high-end Category-One Hurricane. If it were to intensify into a tropical storm, it would be given the name "Ernesto," the Atlantic`s fifth storm.

There is no reason I can think of that would not allow 99L develop into Ernesto by this weekend. He is slowing trying to break free of the ITCZ and is staying to the South of high shear and the SAL. Now, once 99L passes through the Windward Islands, all bets are off. The thinking still continues to be if the track is more West, the storm will be torn apart by high tradewinds in the Caribbean. The further North the track, the storm should hold together a bit longer.

The models continue to show some form of development with this system but are in disagreement down the road of it's strength and destination. Lets take a look at a few.

ECMWF



GFS



CMC



HWRF





Now, our Doom model shot of the day goes once again to the GGEM.





We will have updates throughout the day.

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Great job E, thanks for the update.

Thanks for the morning update, e!!

Thanks E. Greatly appreciated.

Great update, e.

Question: Are the trade winds that are suspected to negatively effect the storm best viewed on the sheer maps?

Your welcome everyone. Sea, answer.

Yes it is. As you see in the GFS you can clearly see the tradewinds moving from the West to the East over the Caribbean. This is very common this time of year hence the nickname " The Caribbean Graveyard"



You can view the current and model estimation of the shear.

The quickest way to view various shear maps is go to the FSC Experimental Forecast page http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ and select what model you want to view.
I have selected the 00 hour GFS 850-200mb shear



Plus, you can see it here also

Thanks,e!

Levi's Tropical Tidbit



The main feature of interest in the Atlantic continues to be Invest 99L east of the Antilles islands The system has gradually become better organized over the last couple of days, with moderate-deep convection persisting over a developing area of surface low pressure. This convection is not yet well-organized, however, and 99L is still largely attached to the ITCZ, and it will need to detach from this in order to close off its own surface circulation. This could happen within the next day or two, and would likely result in the NHC designating this a tropical depression. The system has not exploded with strengthening, and thus has not been able to gain enough latitude to pass north of the big Caribbean islands, and will instead be trekking through the Caribbean itself. 99L, depending on exactly where the surface center develops, looks like it will pass into the Caribbean through the southern half of the Lesser Antilles, and we should get a good look at 99L through the new Barbados doppler radar system.

There will be numerous struggles for 99L in the central-eastern Caribbean. The biggest one will be strong trade winds redeveloping in the Caribbean behind the tropical wave that is running in front of 99L, that will make it difficult for 99L's circulation to hold itself together. There is also still large-scale sinking in the Caribbean as the MJO is still in the Pacific, and is not supporting the Atlantic with upward motion yet. There will also be some wind shear imparted by a TUTT-like upper trough currently situated north of 99L that will be expanding westward as 99L moves into the Caribbean. 99L's eventual separation from the ITCZ will also open it up to entrainment of the dry air to its north and to its west in the Caribbean. Due to all of these things, it seems likely that any strengthening of 99L will halt after it passes the Antilles Islands, and the system will likely struggle to survive after that point, possibly even dissipating.

However, 99L's story may not be that short. If 99L becomes sufficiently organized to survive a trip through the central Caribbean as a defined entity, conditions may improve in 7-10 days in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This region will be west of the TUTT axis, in a good position for being ventilated by upper-level ridging that the GFS ensembles are now showing should develop west of the TUTT late next week. In addition, the MJO will have moved farther into the eastern Pacific by that time, and may decrease the large-scale sinking over the area, making the environment more hospitable for a tropical system. Such a situation could result in 99L restrengthening west of 80W, as long as it can avoid hitting Nicaragua or Honduras straight away. No global model currently strengthens 99L into anything significant, but most models do keep it as a defined enough entity throughout its journey that once into the western Caribbean, it may be able to cause problems, even though the models do not show it yet. It is too soon to know whether 99L will curve northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico in the long range or move into Central America. That will depend on how well 99L handles the Caribbean, and whether it survives to make it that far west.

Overall, we still have a lot of time to monitor this system. The Lesser Antilles, especially the southern half, will deal with 99L first, likely receiving tropical storm-like conditions late Friday well into the weekend, but not a big deal for them. The rest of the Caribbean farther west along with central America and the southeastern United States should keep a wary eye on the situation due to its long-term potential.

We shall see what happens!

This will be a good radar to watch in the next couple of days.

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SITE

Shear will be the story of this system...if it can organize before it reaches the shear to it's west then it should remain a threat.

Tornado Warning
Wednesday, Aug 1, 10:34 AM to 11:00 AM Central

ID#: 0019
NWS Ofice: KAKQ
Counties: Accomack County, VA
WFUS51 KAKQ 011534
TORAKQ
VAC001-011600-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0019.120801T1534Z-120801T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ACCOMACK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1129 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
WATERSPOUT THAT CAME ONSHORE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES NORTH OF PARKSLEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRISFIELD. THE
TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ACCOMACK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
SAXIS AND SANFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Starting to get that classic developing Cyclone look

Hey e....thanks for the Barbados link......The special bulletin from their site....

Barbados Warnings/Watches


HERE IS A N UP-DATED SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN issued by The Barbados Meteorological Services at 10:30 am on Wednesday, 1st August, 2012.

The Barbados Meteorological Services continues to monitor the area of low
pressure over the mid- Atlantic. Analysis over the past twelve hours and in
consultation with the National Hurricane Centre , suggests that the system
is close to tropical depression stage. At present, it is centered near 11�N 47�W
or about 900 miles or 1450 km to the east- south east of Barbados, moving
towards the west at 17� 23mph �27 to 37 kmh. This represents an increase in
forward speed and hence the system is now expected to be in the vicinity of
Barbados by early Friday morning.
Conditions remain favourable for further strengthening and there is a very
strong possibility that this system could become a Tropical Storm by the time
it approaches Barbados and the southern Lesser Antilles.
Reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system tomorrow.
This department will continue to monitor the development of this system and
will be issuing further statements on its progress.

���������..
Hampden Lovell
Director � BMS


Meteorologist: Hampden Lovell

Thanks San...nice to have the "Barbados Met" take on the system

Ships has 99L becoming a decent Cat 1 Hurricane


* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992012 08/01/12 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 50 56 64 71 75 77 78
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 50 56 64 71 75 77 78
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 55 66 78 85 85
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 8 10 8 10 7 5 4 8 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 9 4 2 -1 1 0 1 0 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 355 348 360 326 325 313 289 340 13 10 282 339 268
SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.5 27.9 27.7 26.9 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 143 143 143 143 142 132 137 134 123 126
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 149 149 149 149 150 147 135 140 134 119 121
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 8 10 8 10 7
700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 67 61 64 62 64 70 68 69 74
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 12 12 11 12 11 11 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 7 12 12 21 34 38 47 49 78 80 96
200 MB DIV 21 25 15 24 22 31 66 19 18 23 32 51 24
700-850 TADV -13 -10 -13 -15 -12 -7 -6 -6 -1 3 3 1 2
LAND (KM) 1013 913 832 754 694 628 487 163 177 224 104 78 238
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 44.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 13 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 20 25 28 18 20 36 33 52 32 27 54 11 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)

Oh....we need a lesson in reading that!!!!!!! LOL

Here is a start


This is the times from the advisory issuance
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
This is the max Knots with land interaction
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 50 56 64 71 75 77 78
This is the knots with no land interaction
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 50 56 64 71 75 77 78
Type of storm. Tropical or Sub Tropical
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
Shear over System, in Knots
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 8 10 8 10 7 5 4 8 6 8
Direction from which the shear is coming from
SHEAR DIR 355 348 360 326 325 313 289 340 13 10 282 339 268

interesting the models see's the higher shear levels staying West of the system throughout its track...That may give us some hint in direction by watching the ULL thats causing the Shear.

So, are the #'s supposed to line up, as in a column? ie.....at 12 hours it would be 29 kn(no land); 29kn (land) Storm type - Trop; Shear 10kn ; Shear direction from 360?

12Z GFS Run. First time the GFS had really developed the system through the Caribbean. I cheated and made the animation ever 12 hours instead of 6.

sangria wrote:So, are the #'s supposed to line up, as in a column? ie.....at 12 hours it would be 29 kn(no land); 29kn (land) Storm type - Trop; Shear 10kn ; Shear direction from 360?

Yes San, it should

emcf30 wrote:

sangria wrote:So, are the #'s supposed to line up, as in a column? ie.....at 12 hours it would be 29 kn(no land); 29kn (land) Storm type - Trop; Shear 10kn ; Shear direction from 360?

Yes San, it should

Thanks, e !!!!!

The SAL continues to be replaced by a more moist environment



Storms continue to blow up in the Northwestern quadrant.



You can see the banding to the NW.It is feeding back into the convection. This is where the center is forming. It is NW of the last plotted postion

Can't really tell.....has it separated from the ITCZ, or not?

There are a few Severe Thunderstorm Watches out at the moment

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011453
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-075



1. SUSPECT AREA.....APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-

A. 02/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST

C. 02/1530Z

D. 12.4N 54.4W

E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-

A. 03/0600, 1200Z

B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE

C. 03/0400Z

D. 13.0N 57.5W

E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXED.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Tropical Depression #5 has been born
AL, 05, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M



And the NHC has it up to Hurricane Status in 5 days

It's gonna be interesting to see where things lie come the weekend.

Looks like the NHC is going with the 12Z GFS track and intensity

Definitely will be. But the way things look now, Trop may get fishin trip in. Even though seas may be a bit rough. Hope he doesn't get seasick....

The course looks steady. There's a trough forecast to be along the east coast in a few days. I guess we'll see if there's enough umph to pull the system north in time.

Models continue to shift Northward

I was looking at sat images for the wave, and it looks kinda messy, but on WV and IR, it looks like it had a fairly good blow up today.....could it do something unexpected?