CLOSED 5/29/17 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
518 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...Widespread Heavy Rainfall Possible Monday through Wednesday...

folks possibly Very Heavy rain coming next 5 days,if you flood easily,then prepare now huh..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
348 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
An amplified upper pattern continues over the northeast U.S. with a
closed upper low over New England and troughing extending south
through the western Atlantic. Weak ridging continues to extend
northwest from near Cuba to the Florida panhandle. This is helping
to pump ample moisture over Florida from the Gulf of Mexico which is
apparent on the latest water vapor imagery and in the evening 00Z
sounding with a PWAT of 1.98 inches. Not a lot of change in this
upper pattern is expected through the weekend.

On the surface, the western periphery of the subtropical Bermuda
high continues to extend over the southeast U.S. This pattern will
continue into the weekend and will keep a light east-southeast wind
flow over the inland areas. This will allow for showers and storms
to develop over the east coast earlier in the day and transit west
later in the afternoon. A weak west coast sea breeze will also set
up daily along the coast during the afternoon hours. The location of
the west and east coast sea breeze collisions over the interior
counties will see the highest chances of strong storms and heavy
downpours. Overall coverage of rainfall will be in the 40-70 percent
range with some higher chances in the direct vicinity of the sea
breeze collisions. With the extensive cloud cover and increased rain
chances, the daytime high temps will be 2-4 degrees below seasonal
average on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.Long Term (Monday through next Friday)...
The forecast philosophy for the long term forecast period has not
changed since last forecast cycle. The synoptic pattern remains
unusual for early June under a deep swath of atmospheric moisture
(PW values remaining near or over 2" through the middle of the
week). A series of weak mid/upper level disturbances will interact
with this available moisture and any diurnal heating to keep the
forecast unsettled during Monday...although likely not a washout.
The amount of moisture available and the time of year suggests
periodic showers could develop at just about any time, over just
about any place.

Beyond the daylight hours of Monday confidence is increasing in the
potential for a significantly wet period across the FL peninsula for
Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS/ECMWF are both showing a pattern where
deep synoptic troughing approaches the region across the Gulf of
Mexico...interacting with a surface boundary dropping south and
laying out near...or just south of the northern Gulf coast. The
details between the different model solutions vary, however, it does
not take much meteorological knowledge to understand this pattern
has significant rainfall potential for the FL west coast. While both
solutions are quite wet, the ECMWF is most aggressive with a wave of
low pressure developing along the boundary Tuesday and moving slowly
east/NE into Wednesday. This solution could prove very wet due to
enhanced convergence into the wave, with some potential for stronger
storms given added low level shear. All this is still more than 3
days out, and I assure you, the forecast will change at least
somewhat from current. Followed a more "broadbrush" approach this
morning, trying to give the wet impression, without trying to
suggest one area might be wetter than another. Simply too early.

After Wednesday, the passage of the upper level energy should drive
the frontal boundary southward as well. The big question will be how
far south. It is becoming obvious that the further north one travels
up the FL peninsula, the drier the forecast becomes Thursday into
Friday. Will go with fairly low PoPs north of the I-4 corridor, and
increase PoPs/skycover the further south from there.

Usually by this time of year, we are settling into our typical
summer diurnal sea-breeze convection pattern. However, this year
looks to hold off on all that for a while still. At least for the
duration of the upcoming week.

Good Morning everyone!

It's cloudy and humid here...uggh

Good morning. .44" total yesterday. I'll take it - especially from the long term tidbit from san's Ruskin post.

"It is becoming obvious that the further north one travels
up the FL peninsula, the drier the forecast becomes Thursday into
Friday. Will go with fairly low PoPs north of the I-4 corridor, and
increase PoPs/skycover the further south from there."

May we all get a few inches of rain through mid week! Today looks more an interior/west coast day up in area. Snipped from JAX "Plenty of low and mid level moisture will remain in place today,
but forcing will be limited to mesoscale influences such as the
Atlantic sea breeze. This boundary should get an added push this
afternoon as high pressure to our north builds into our area.
Isolated convection may develop along the I-95 corridor around
noon as the sea breeze pushes westward, with scattered convection
developing during the early and mid afternoon hours for locations
along and west of U.S. Highway 301. The easterly low level flow
and numerous mesoscale boundary collisions should result in
numerous showers and thunderstorms along and west of I-75 by late
afternoon and early evening."

Subject to change hourly but here is the 10z HRRR.

Seeing these maps reminds me of a study I recall reading some time ago regarding the number of Americans who can't identify the states or don't even know where they are located on a map. Quite depressing.

sangria wrote:Good Morning everyone!

It's cloudy and humid here...uggh

good morning san..yeah its the same here by me whew.

well for yesterday,i guess I got an inch or a lil more yesterday..bird bath was half full,whatever the amount I sure needed that HERE...and it looks like good possibilities for more thru wens or so.

Hmmm things Might get Interesting wens/thurs..NWS could be right............

from mikes weather page

well lets see what they are saying Tuesday Morning.still time for big changes in whats going to happen and where huh

Shear levels in front of the area are not conducive at all for any real development. Maybe a depression...BUT it will bring rain for many in Florida as it progresses ENE

gomexwx wrote:Shear levels in front of the area are not conducive at all for any real development. Maybe a depression...BUT it will bring rain for many in Florida as it progresses ENE

yes there are a lot of really parched area's around Florida,we could really use a whole day or two of on-off rains all day long here....

Largo, looks like rain is popping up over your head - or ever so slightly east.

I agree gomey. Nothing more than a rainmaker which is fine by me.

in searching most of the weather sites, it does seem like Heavy rains will be coming mid week,5-7 inches even spread out over a day or two could really cause flooding.especially if you have ditches or any small streams near by..IF this does in fact happen..we haven't had something like this in such a long time...stay alert and safe this coming week folks..but....we surely need the rains huh..would be nice if it was spread out over 4-5 days time...a lot of it would soak in and replenish our water supply underground huh

StAugustineFL wrote:Largo, looks like rain is popping up over your head - or ever so slightly east.

I agree gomey.  Nothing more than a rainmaker which is fine by me.

yes cloudy here,no wind to speak of..and so far no rain either.

yes Aug..i might get some here in a few minutes if it holds together...........

Aug..YOu may get some real heavy rains later today..good luck ok........................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1013 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.UPDATE...
Only a few minor tweaks with latest hi-res short term guidance to
the going forecast. Very subtle height rises across Florida this
morning, while some drier air is filtering into southeast
Georgia. We should see some initial showers and thunderstorms
develop along the Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon, becoming more
numerous as they interact with the Gulf seabreeze later this
afternoon/early evening near the I-75 corridor. PWAT from this
morning`s JAX sounding (1.90 inches) is above the 90th
percentile for this date, so very heavy downpours will be the
biggest hazard from thunderstorms this afternoon. High
temperatures in the upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland
are expected.

Widespread heavy rainfall still looks possible the first half of
the new work week. Rest of the forecast package unchanged.

&&

well just some darker clouds just to my north..no rain at all by me so far...just after 1pm now

OH OH>...BILLSFAN...................................Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Miami FL
1216 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2017

FLC011-031915-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0011.170603T1616Z-170603T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broward FL-
1216 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
East central Broward County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 315 PM EDT

* At 1216 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain which will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor
drainage areas will result in minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to three inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Lighthouse Point,
Lauderdale-By-The-Sea and Oakland Park.

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2629 8007 2616 8002 2617 8018 2625 8016

$$

KONARIK

I know its the weekend but stay alert folks..even NWS is mentioning how unusual the weather is now...luckily..at least by me..no wind or lightning...and so far no rain either..but the days young

By Josh Linker, Bay News 9 Meteorologist
Last Updated: Saturday, June 03, 2017,
ST. PETERSBURG -- 
Lots of deep tropical moisture is in place this weekend resulting in extra clouds. Just a little bit of heating will allow showers and thunderstorms to form and a sea breeze to move in a bit.
Extra clouds
Daily storms
Typical summertime coverage
Winds will be generally from the east to southeast, keeping the sea breeze near the coast, at least for the early afternoon.
There are no favored locations for showers and storms today and tomorrow. Extra clouds will keep temps in the 80s for highs.

gee ALOT of storms all around you down there Billsfan...stay alert and safe ok.........

LargoFL wrote:Aug..YOu may get some real heavy rains later today..good luck ok........................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1013 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.UPDATE...
Only a few minor tweaks with latest hi-res short term guidance to
the going forecast. Very subtle height rises across Florida this
morning, while some drier air is filtering into southeast
Georgia. We should see some initial showers and thunderstorms
develop along the Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon, becoming more
numerous as they interact with the Gulf seabreeze later this
afternoon/early evening near the I-75 corridor. PWAT from this
morning`s JAX sounding (1.90 inches) is above the 90th
percentile for this date, so very heavy downpours will be the
biggest hazard from thunderstorms this afternoon. High
temperatures in the upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland
are expected.

Widespread heavy rainfall still looks possible the first half of
the new work week. Rest of the forecast package unchanged.

&&

Nothing here Largo.  It's all interior or west coast.  Dry as a bone here with isolated convection at the moment in those areas.  I am prepping BBQ.  Here are the sky conditions from my house.

NWS Tampa..........................Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today and move
slowly eastward after forming. Although any location may receive
a thunderstorm today, the greatest coverage of storms will be this
afternoon to the east of the I 75 corridor. Any storms that do
develop will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

Good Sunday Morning Folks!...it must have rained a little here last night,i see some puddles out along the curbs in the street.....well forecast is like yesterday's...possible showers etc...have a wonderful day everyone!

Morning all!

Not a drop of rain here, but I watched it move in from the north and south of course.

At least the chances go up starting Tuesday; hope everyone gets to cash in.

NAM through 8am Wed morning............








GFS through 8pm Sat Fri evening, doesn't show much additional after Wed evening.............

This was the last NWS Ruskin total rainfall forecast through 8am Sat morning





This was the last NWS JaX total rainfall forecast through 8pm Thu evening

And this is the last generic Euro total rainfall forecast that Denis Phillips posted on his FB page on Fri....

Oh, and I would be remiss if I didn't post Aug's favorite QPF forecast map!!  The WPC 5 day through 8am Fri morning.....

ah the good kind of rain falling here by me,the soaking in kind,not runoff.............

Local met is warning of possible really Heavy rains mid week...possibly localized flooding rains etc

Nice for you Largo  :-)

The winds are light and variable, so not sure how much real movement we'll see from the GOM mess offshore in the short term...

Good morning.  Latest HRRR through this evening...........

Looks like another dry day for the coastal counties of NE FL.  May get an evening shower after the local flow shifts from the SE to S then SW by evening to allow rain to try pushing back towards the coast.

StPete is in the sweet spot at the moment.  He should be racking up a respectable amount.

StAugustineFL wrote:StPete is in the sweet spot at the moment.  He should be racking up a respectable amount.

Yes it sure looks like he's getting some great rain down there....its about 8 45 right now and it seems Pinellas county is really lucking out with the rainfall Finally,man we sure needed this.

Local met is saying all this rain etc out in the gulf will be moving inland thru the day..good luck folks!

weather channel is saying a local reporting station near me is saying so far I got o.36 rain..nice to see everything wet here this morning and they have me at 100% rain chances and..possible thunderstorms all day long here.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
725 am EDT sun Jun 4 2017

Aviation...
similar to yesterday, rain chances will be on the high side through
the day. Kpie and ktpa have the highest chances for showers this
morning with ongoing activity around the Tampa Bay region.
Thunderstorms will be possible at all sites starting this afternoon
and continuing through the day. Some brief periods of MVFR/IFR
restrictions are possible, but VFR should otherwise prevail under
overcast mid and high clouds. Winds will remain under 10 knots
outside of showers and thunderstorms.

ok ok LOL...our rainy day Blogs COFFEE is perking for ya'all..enjoy..its a good day here to stay indoors,by me anyway lol.

You need to share with your neighbors outside Pinellas County now Largo. Send some of the heavier stuff to Pasco, Hernando Hilllsborough and points north to the nature coast.

It looks like it's trying, it just doesn't like our land up here! I've been outside pruning the monster bougainvillea, and a tiny misty drop might have hit me every 2 minutes.

yes this big blob of rain just isn't moving too much huh,winds are very light today and doesn't look like anything will move this for awhile..by me just steady light rain..up to around 0.56 so far,but..its the great soaking IN kind of rain..real glad this happened here.