CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG

NWS Jacksonville..........
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
this evening.

* TIMING...Through this evening.

* WINDS...Sustained northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to
40 mph mainly along the coast.

* IMPACTS...Minor damage to trees, power lines, and property are
possible with wind of this magnitude. Motorists in high
profiles vehicles are advised to use caution. Strong winds can
topple trees, blow weakened roofs off houses, and down power
lines. Take precautions to secure trash cans, lawn furniture,
and any other loose outdoor objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds greater than
25 mph are expected for at least an hour, with gusts of 35 to
57 mph at any time.

&&

$$

NWS Melbourne........130 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
An isolated threat for lightning storms will be found south of
Indian River through southern Osceola counties. The main storm
threats will be occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes,
torrential downpours, and gusty winds.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
East-northeast winds will be 20 to 25 mph and gusty areawide today.
Gusts to near 40 mph may occur near the east coast this afternoon. A
Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for all of east central Florida.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Large breaking waves up to 5 to 7 feet within the surf zone will
likely produce minor beach erosion. This will be particularly true
around the times of local high tide from around 5 PM through 9 PM
tonight. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the entire central
Florida Atlantic Coast.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A lingering long period ocean swell will lead to a moderate risk
for rip currents at area beaches today. The greatest threat will be
through 330 PM, due to tidal effects. Remember to always heed the
advice of local beach patrol before entering the water, and only
swim within sight of a lifeguard.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
East-northeast winds up to around 25 knots with frequent higher
gusts will build seas to 7 to 10 feet near shore and up to 10 to 13
feet offshore. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected from
Sebastian Inlet southward...and occasional gusts to gale force will
be possible to the north of Sebastian Inlet. A Gale Warning is in
effect from Sebastian Inlet southward, and Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect to the north of Sebastian Inlet.

just want to mention..be extra careful walking under tree's with these strong winds..alot of broken branches up above from IRMA.

folks 12Z Euro is back to a Florida strike again..this time stronger,stay alert.........

Thanks Largo... Dang it sure is BREEZY today, thought my car door was going to fly off the hinge!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo... Dang it sure is BREEZY today, thought my car door was going to fly off the hinge!

yes its gusting to about 36mph here too.....that tropical wave that's going to come over your area now has a 10% chance to develop next few days..regardless..some strong gusty winds and probably heavy rain at times..stay alert and safe ok...we on the gulf side are watching that Caribbean storm..might go to TS or even a hurricane if those upper winds die down some.

10% Yellow cone and 60% over 5 days orange cone..stay alert folks,probably late weeknd maybe..

see that huge tropical wave by the Bahama's?..this is what will travel over Florida wens/thurs.

good thing we saved the cases of bottled water and supplies we didn't use for Irma..somehow I just don't trust these two storms...man we sure don't need any more storm damage or Flooding etc..stay alert folks...im hoping I wake up tomorrow and poof they are gone.

well enough from me..post away folks..any idea's on IF we are going to get hit?

LargoFL wrote:well enough from me..post away folks..any idea's on IF we are going to get hit?

Good afternoon. No telling yet Largo but one to watch for sure. 12Z models seem to be thinking between the panhandle and New Orleans for the time being. The potential storm is now 90L and has a nice little spin to it.

Good Wednesday Morning folks!...still real breezy here by me this morning,you know..I kinda LIKE this breeze..it feels so much cooler that the humid 90's we have had here..well anyway...tomorrow (thurs) that tropical wave will be moving thru florida and heavy rain might happen with maybe some strong gusts....then we wait to see what invest 90 does in the gulf....overnight models are split between LA and Florida..still a bit early yet to believe any of them.......well Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!

Thursday is going to be a stormy wet day for us......................

ok so we deal with the Bahama's wave first then we'll see what invest 90 is going to do over the weekend,tomorrow is going to be a wet-windy day looks like with that tropical wave..

some of the models bring the tropical wave into central florida Thursday.

folks invest 90 NHC cone has shifted east..and Euro ensembles also................

well got my plywood ready and we are replenishing our supplies today just in case..what I don't know is how strong 90 will become..looks like 90 may become 'Nate' later today...hopefully he will only be a strong TS or cat-1 hurricane.....we sure don't want another strong cat-4 anywhere near here huh

I guess regardless of where it actually hits..we on the gulf coast side of this coming storm will probably get some of its effects as it moves northeastward up the gulf..we still have some days to watch this..maybe by Friday they will have a good idea on it.

Euro is going for the big bend area of Florida so far,hope not more eastward anymore....

Jenny and WD if your lurking,you folks should watch this storm Closely ok..track still has time to change but be extra alert and safe up there ok.

lets hope it doesn't move up the gulf coast of Florida too closely

I guess I lost a post?

Well, I'll say good morning again. Thanks for the coffee Largo!

And the updates.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I guess I lost a post?

Well, I'll say good morning again.  Thanks for the coffee Largo!

And the updates.  

hiya Billsfan,you be safe tomorrow ok.

the first storm comes tomorrow from the ATL...tropical LOW................................

the tropical wave tomorrow will move northward to central Florida..going to be a wet windy day for sure huh.

Invest 90 is now a tropical depression....TD-16..a hurricane hunter flies into it this afternoon,we'll know more later on.

so maybe if it keeps moving northeast Florida may get a one-two punch whew..might be some bad flooding ...only saving grace is..whatever TD16 becomes..it will be a fast mover they say..so far anyway

I notice more models have moved more eastward,even down to tampa bay..

this is what I'm worried about...baynews9 met on TD16.........................."Any track west of Tampa Bay would bring implications with heavy rain, winds, tornadoes and storm surge. How close the center comes to our West-Coast will have big implications, but it is too early to know for sure".........I sure don't need more tree's down and damage around here..gee...give florida a break Mother Nature we are so tired LOL

this isn't set in stone yet..just gives an idea of a timeline..................

LargoFL wrote:

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo... Dang it sure is BREEZY today, thought my car door was going to fly off the hinge!

yes its gusting to about 36mph here too.....that tropical wave that's going to come over your area now has a 10% chance to develop next few days..regardless..some strong gusty winds and probably heavy rain at times..stay alert and safe ok...we on the gulf side are watching that Caribbean storm..might go to TS or even a hurricane if those upper winds die down some.

Flew in to TPA yesterday, plane was all over the place during approach.  Very gusty.

Good afternoon. Hopefully future Nate stays well enough away from us but unfortunately someone is going to get hit. If close to the west coast, beware the right front quadrant. That's the tornado producer. In this case the NE quadrant of the storm with it coming up from the south. Irma dropped a few tornado's here - one of which was EF2 and heavily damaged some condos.

Latest static vis loop. It is looking "good"

If it can thread the needle between Yucatan and Cuba and heads up to the panhandle will have a trail of warmer than average water to follow

You're so right about tornadoes. We were in the NE quadrant of Irma and she was throwing off tornadoes left and right

StPeteFLwx wrote:If it can thread the needle between Yucatan and Cuba and heads up to the panhandle will have a trail of warmer than average water to follow

Yep, SST's are plenty high to fuel it. Might have some shear and dry air to keep it in check but my amateur opinion thinks the current dry air gets pushed west from the SFL disturbance before TD16 is drawn north.

Guess the 18z runs are forecasting high pressure to really build in. Keeps the storm well away from the peninsula.

Hi all. Yep somebody’s gonna get hit and it’s gonna be fast. Levi just put out a video tropicaltidbits.com and the jury is out on landfall anywhere from LA to FL Peninsula. We’re not out of the woods yet!

Nate??..I don't want no stinking Nate!

almost 3AM Thursday,one of my dogs woke me..outside just a lil windy,no rain here by me yet..overnight models have come together bringing Nate westward towards LA not Florida BUT..still too early to believe.

NWS Tampa.....Thu Oct 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms with scattered to numerous showers...some
with heavy rainfall are expected throughout the day and
continuing into this evening. Thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains with
minor flooding possible...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Strong and gusty northeasterly winds continue through tonight...
creating hazardous boating conditions and requiring a small craft
advisory be in effect.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor to moderate flooding is expected to continue along the
Withlacoochee river at Croom, Holder, Dunnellon, and Trilby
for the next few days. Any additional rainfall over this or other
river basins could enhance localized rises so residents living
along these rivers should remain aware of water levels and be
ready to move to higher ground should ongoing flooding worsen.

NWS Miami...Thu Oct 5 2017

...Flash Flood Watch in Effect for the the Eastern Half of South Florida...
...Hazardous Marine Conditions for all South Florida Waters...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are forecast across South Florida
through this evening. Primary hazards will be lightning, urban
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas, and gusty wind.

Wind: East wind of 20-25 knots expected across Atlantic waters and
around 20 knots over the Gulf waters. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph are
possible across the South Florida Atlantic waters and the Atlantic
coastal areas. A Gale Warning for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay
waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the remainder of
the South Florida waters.

Flooding: Showers and thunderstorms may lead to flooding in low
lying and poorly drained areas, particularly along the coast near
high tide. Any localized high rainfall amounts, may cause flooding
to rise enough to enter vehicles, and possibly structures, mainly in
the east coast metro areas of South Florida,

Rip currents: There is a High Risk for Rip Currents along Atlantic
beaches.

Waves: Seas of 8 to 10 feet, mainly in the Gulf stream. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect for Palm Beach County. A Gale Warning is in
effect for the South Florida Atlantic waters. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for the remainder of the South Florida waters.

Good Thursday Morning folks!..well today and tomorrow rain and wind from this tropical wave moving over south and central florida....and...this wave might be our savior from NATE!!..so far NHC thinks this wave will draw NATE westward away from Florida but...we still have a few days for any changes..we wait this out huh..........well blogs coffee is perking for when you get here enjoy..have a great day everyone!!