Tropical Depression #5 is Born - Severe Weather

Tropical Depression #5 have developed in the Atlantic. Circulation has become better defined throughout the day and now has acquired enough organization for the NHC to upgrade 99L to a Tropical Depression. The initial wind speed as determined by Dvorak Estimates from the TAFB and SAB have been set at 30 knots. the 5:00 PM position of TD5 is located at 12.2 N..49.0 W. Movement is toward the WNW at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and the Central Minimum Pressure is 1008 MB



Strengthening should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to the moderate shear directly to the North of TD5. This is due in part to a Upper Level Low in that area. Here is a look at the forecast track for the next five days



Here are the current Tropical Storm Probabilities Map issued by the NHC.



Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for much of the Lesser Antilles in anticipation of further strengthening of TD5 into Tropical Storm Ernesto.

HERE IS ADVISORY #1 FOR BARBADOS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5

Issued by

The Barbados Meteorological Services

at 5:00 p.m on Wednesday, 1st August, 2012.


THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5.

……A TROPICAL STORM-WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ISLAND, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 hours.

AT 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1130 KM TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...

ON THIS PRESENT TRACK THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF BARBADOS EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESEER ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY EVENING.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

REGARDLESS OF THE FACT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE CENTER WE STILL ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS BARBADOS.

SEAS...ABOVE-NORMAL SWELLS WILL RESULT BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF BARBADOS.

REPEATING THE 5:00 PM POSITION...12.2 N..49.0 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 5:00 A.M TOMORROW.

H.LOVELL
Director (Ag) B.M.S

Thanks for the update, e!! Thanks for posting the Barbados Met office's current advisory!!!

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Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 012354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

If TD5 can't escape the shear from the ULL NNE of the system..It may soon be an open wave...

TD 5; Public Advisory 2

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 50.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TD 5 Not looking so good this AM.....
Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 020841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.

LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.

UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.3N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.7N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVIL

I thought I would wake up to Ernesto this morning, what do I know. Is the increase in forward speed helping to keep him from organizing? Oh, BTW nice update E.

Didn't expect much in the way of organization overnight, but did not think TD5 would look worse.....Looks like the northern end is sitting right at 20 kn of wind shear with the ULL just to it's north.