CLOSED Thick of Summer in Florida!

Morning all.  

San - latest HRRR shows promise for your area.  I didn't check prior runs.  

No rain in the forecast here until Thursday.  Kinda unusual to not even have a 10-20% chance for days in the middle of the rainy season.  BBL - need to pick up groceries then tackle some weeds in the beds that sprouted while I was out of town.

Good morning! Doesn't look like any rain for me either!

It sure has been a season of have and have nots rainwise.

Have a good day all!

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Key West FL
249 PM EDT Sun Aug 5 2018

GMZ034-054-055-074-075-052000-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas
out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas
20 to 60 NM out-
249 PM EDT Sun Aug 5 2018

.NOW...
Through 400 pm, isolated showers will impact the western Straits of
Florida, mainly along and west of a line from 50 miles south of Key
West through Dry Tortugas National Park. The showers will be
accompanied by wind gusts near 25 knots and briefly reduce
visibility below 2 miles in heavy downpours as they move toward the
west at 20 knots.


$$

7-day forecast for the Tampa bay area...pretty much our normal rain chances in summer huh...........

30 percent?! Ha

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:30 percent?! Ha

LOL Billsfan..I think I got..about 2 rain drops yesterday evening but it sure was Booming alot to my north..maybe JR or SAN got some good rain?

NWS TAMPA...352 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon and evening, mostly from around Interstate 4
south. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains... and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Many local rivers and streams are running at elevated to flood
levels. Additional rainfall expected today will have the potential
to result in additional river rises from what is currently
forecast. Residents living along rivers and streams should remain
aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground
should flooding be observed.

Good Monday Morning folks!! well only a small chance for rain by me today, looks like most of this week too, well we all know we dont get rain everyday huh,time to dry the ground out,thanks Mother Nature lol..well have a great day everyone

Morning. Looks like a dry day for about all today unless a rogue shower/storm passes over someone.

NWS MIAMI....1008 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible, mainly this afternoon
across South Florida. However, the best chances will be along the
Gulf coast and western Lake region. Lightning is the main hazard
today.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

There is a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day,
especially across the western interior. The primary hazard will be
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

AH What a great day,weather wise, to get things done outside here..no storms or deadly lightning around, and calm winds...perfect

Just want to mention, there ARE some inland showers heading west towards the gulf,might slow down there too..

Dang that radar shows it all drying up as it moves to the west coast!

I did get surprised with a very nice line yesterday evening. Dumped .71" out of the gauge this morning.

sangria wrote:Dang that radar shows it all drying up as it moves to the west coast!

I did get surprised with a very nice line yesterday evening.  Dumped .71" out of the gauge this morning.

You're looking as good as anyone for rain prospects.  Won't amount to a whole lot but something is better than nothing. Here's the most recent static loop.

Nothing here today. Except sadness We had to put our 19 year old cat to sleep today. I got him for our daughter when she was 6 . Rough times right now.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote: Nothing here today.   Except sadness       We had to put our 19 year old cat to sleep today. I got him for our daughter when she was 6 . Rough times right now.

sorry to hear that Billsfan.

NWS TAMPA..........515 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon and early evening, mainly from around the
Interstate 4 corridor southward. Thunderstorms that develop will
be capable of producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Many local rivers and streams are running at elevated to flood
levels. Additional rainfall expected today will have the potential
to result in additional river rises from what is currently
forecast. Residents living along rivers and streams should remain
aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher ground
should flooding be observed.

NWS MIAMI...333 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
across South Florida today with the best coverage over the interior
and west coast metro areas this afternoon into early this evening.
Lightning is the main hazard today.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

There is a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day,
especially across the interior and west coast metro areas.
The primary hazard will be lightning.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter

Good Tuesday Morning Folks!!...clear sky above and sprinklers on this early morning,im surprised NWS raised up rain chances around the Tampa area to 51%..we'll see what happens in the evening huh...well have a wonderful day everyone!

Just checking in from soggy Levy county. We have been lucky the last few days as the heavy rains have been really close, but they missed us for the most part. We totaled up a half inch since last Thursday. Water isn't receding very fast as the water table is EXTREMELY high. The Suwannee River Water Managent District issued a statement yesterday that the entire district is highy susceptible to significant flooding currently as the water table is the highest it has been in the last decade. That is due to the close to 40 inches of rainfall that has fallen in the last 3 months (18 inches is average). Hopefully we continue to have a drying period. A normal weather pattern would be OK, we just can't handle anything large scale at his point. Looking ahead, the tropics looks to stay quiet for a bit and the CPC says the next 3 weeks we will have normal to below normal precip. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Don't ever remember seeing the WMD post anything like this before.
Here is the warning they postedt:

Heavy Rains Increase Risks For Flooding

LIVE OAK, FLA., Aug 6, 2018 – Rainfall across the Suwannee Valley has increased levels in the aquifer across much of the 15-county region of the Suwannee River Water Management District (District) and the springs and rivers are flowing; but so is water in the streets in some areas. The District is warning residents to be prepared as we move into what is typically the most active months of the year for tropical weather.

“Water levels are the highest they have been for many years in some areas of the District,” said Fay Baird, senior hydrologist with the District. “If our area receives a tropical storm or heavy rainfall event, flooding in many low areas across the District could be significant.”

Many areas throughout the District have experienced much higher than average rainfall over the past two months. Areas in Dixie and Levy counties have received almost 40 inches of rain over the past three months, compared to a long-term average of approximately 18 inches for that same time period.

Communities in Alachua, Levy and Dixie counties have already experienced localized flooding, particularly in low-lying areas of the counties. Additionally, river-level forecasts on the Santa Fe River are already at minor flood stages, although water levels are currently expected to recede before significant flooding occurs.

Because of all the rain, there is little ability for the landscape to absorb more water. This can result in flooding. In many areas of the District, the only solution is for the water to move to another place, recede, evaporate or percolate into the ground.

Historically, August and September are the months in which the District is most likely to have widespread rain from tropical systems. But even if there is no tropical weather over the next few weeks, summer thunderstorms can create local downpours. Under those conditions local flooding can happen very quickly especially when an area is already saturated.

Residents in low lying areas and those along rivers and streams should be thinking NOW about what they can do to safeguard their homes and belongings from high water.

•Take time to identify alternate evacuation routes in the event the home’s main ingress and egress becomes flooded. Residents also should keep in mind that even if their home is on high ground, the roads that lead to it may not be.
•Make a plan to move valuable property, including animals, from low, flood-prone areas to higher ground.
•Verify that drainageways on or through the property are not blocked and allow for water flow.
•Identify an evacuation location ahead of time.
•Always evacuate if instructed to do so.

The District monitors river and rainfall levels on an hourly basis. If levels along river corridors approach flood stage, the District works with the National Weather Service and local emergency management personnel to warn citizens, so they can protect their homes, resources and roads.

For more information on rainfall and river levels, visit www.MySuwanneeRiver.com. The District works with local communities to provide grant funding for flooding prevention and mitigation. If you have ideas for projects, please submit them to the District’s Project Portal found on the website.

The mission of the Suwannee River Water Management District is to protect and manage water resources using science-based solutions to support natural systems and the needs of the public. The District holds true to the belief of water for nature, water for people. Headquartered in Live Oak, Florida, the District serves 15 surrounding north-central Florida counties.

For more information about the District, visit www.MySuwanneeRiver.com or follow us on Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Twitter, search @SRWMD.

waterdipper wrote:Just checking in from soggy Levy county. We have been lucky the last few days as the heavy rains have been really close, but they missed us for the most part. We totaled up a half inch since last Thursday. Water isn't receding very fast as the water table is EXTREMELY high. The Suwannee River Water Managent District issued a statement yesterday that the entire district is highy susceptible to significant flooding currently as the water table is the highest it has been in the last decade. That is due to the close to 40 inches of rainfall that has fallen in the last 3 months (18 inches is average). Hopefully we continue to have a drying period. A normal weather pattern would be OK, we just can't handle anything large scale at his point. Looking ahead, the tropics looks to stay quiet for a bit and the CPC says the next 3 weeks we will have normal to below normal precip. Keeping my fingers crossed.

ok good luck up there WD..for some reason NWS Tampa is thinking the rains will be for the most part..I-4 corridor southward.good luck, i hope your area can dry out, at some point the Tropics should wake up some, then the Heavy rains come.

yes everyone in Florida..should have evac routes and excape routes already pasted into memory huh

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following
rivers in Florida...

Myakka River At Myakka River State Park
Peace River At Arcadia

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens

.Drier conditions over the last couple of days have allowed water
levels to fall and are expected to continue falling into the weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC101-081404-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.2.ER.180725T0615Z.180802T1315Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
The Cypress Creek At Worthington Gardens
* Until further notice.
* At 09 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to a stage of 9.9 feet by tomorrow
morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Flooding threatens two homes on State Road
54.
* Impact...at 8.0 feet...Flooding begins at the recreation area on
State Road 54.
* Flood history...This compares to a previous crest of 10.3 feet
on Aug 13 2003.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Cypress Creek
Worthington 8.0 10.2 Tue 09 AM 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.5


&&


LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240

..BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

* RED TIDE HAZARDS...Possible respiratory irritation in some
coastal areas of Manatee, Sarasota, CHarlotte, and Lee counties.

For red tide forecast information visit
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/gomx.html

* FLORIDA RED TIDE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION IMPACTS...Symptoms may
include coughing, sneezing, and tearing eyes.

* FLORIDA RED TIDE RESPIRATORY IRRITATION TIMING/LOCATION... NOAA
FORECAST: Coastal southern Manatee County: Gulf coast...possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal northern/southern Sarasota
County: Gulf coast...possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Bay regions
of northern Sarasota...possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal
northern/southern Charlotte County: Gulf coast and bay
regions...possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal
northern/central/southern Lee County: Gulf coast...possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. Bay regions of northern and central Lee
County...possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

wow just finished about an hours worth of pruning and tending to my garden and was soaked!! man the humidity level must be sky high here...now i HOPE we get a shower or two later this afternoon/evening like they have been saying this morning good luck to those who do Need rain today.

it looks like jr's area and maybe Tampa are getting some showers now

NWS MIAMI...1206 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.NOW...

Through early this evening, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue to move westward from the East Coast
metro areas into the Interior and Gulf Coast metro areas this
afternoon. Wind gusts up to 35 mph, lightning strikes, and locally
heavy rainfall may accompany any storms that develop. Mariners
should be alert and be able to seek safe harbor if necessary.

$$

Hang in there bills. Sorry to hear about your cat. Our little furry friends are family.

Hope you dry out WD. I've had 40" all YEAR which is above avg. Can't imagine 40" in 3 months.

Busy day here today. First day back in the office with lots to catch up on.

Thanks Aug. Yeah, been rough.

Awww Bills, I'm sorry to hear about your fur baby. That's a long life though for a cat isn't it? Mocha (my mini doxie) is 14 and I dread that day.

Hey WD, man you have really racked up the rain! My folks are in Homosassa and although they don't get what you get, dad rubs in his 4.5" daily totals every chance he gets.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today - Thursday)...
In the upper levels, a weak TUTT low will continue to cross
south Florida today, while at the surface, the subtropical
ridge will hold across the Florida Peninsula. This will
setup light and generally southerly winds, turning onshore
with the afternoon sea breeze near the coast. Showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this
morning will gradually dissipate through the late morning
and early afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms developing
over the Peninsula during the afternoon and continuing
through the early evening. The TUTT will bring cooling
mid level temperatures to southwest Florida, which could
result in a few stronger storms over the southern portion of
the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

The subtropical ridge will slide south tonight and Thursday,
with winds shifting to southwesterly and westerly. A few
late evening and early morning showers and storms will
develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and shift onshore
through the morning hours. Thunderstorms developing across
the land areas will shift east and inland through the late
afternoon and early evening.

Good Wednesday Morning folks!! well I got a good heavy down pouring rain last evening around dinner time,didnt last too long maybe a half hour or so but it did its job here lol and OMG the Lightning and Thunder,,but thats florida summer rains huh...well lower rain chances today..have a great day everyone!!

Morning All,
Not much going on. Hot with passing rain showers.
.71 in the bucket for the month so far.
Bills, Sorry to here about your cat. I know how it feels to be missing a pet.
Have a great day all.
John Z-hills

BillsfaninSoFla wrote: Nothing here today.   Except sadness       We had to put our 19 year old cat to sleep today. I got him for our daughter when she was 6 . Rough times right now.

Sorry about your loss. I went through that not too long ago, its miserable.

I need a cat to find the cricket hiding in my house. It starts up at night but gets quiet when I try to track it down.

StPeteFLwx wrote:

BillsfaninSoFla wrote: Nothing here today.   Except sadness       We had to put our 19 year old cat to sleep today. I got him for our daughter when she was 6 . Rough times right now.

Sorry about your loss. I went through that not too long ago, its miserable.

I need a cat to find the cricket hiding in my house. It starts up at night but gets quiet when I try to track it down.

Kinda amazing how that happens. Small little creature with barely a brain yet survival instincts kick in.

StAugustineFL wrote:Kinda amazing how that happens.  Small little creature with barely a brain yet survival instincts kick in.

For a small little creature he sure is loud in the middle of the night

Thanks everybody go the kind words, unfortunately something we've all been thru or will at some time.
Yes San, I'd think 19 is pretty long for a cat and I'm actually relieved not to be worried about him every day. But my daughter is having a bad time with it and that's hard to watch.

Lots of Saharian dust down here, virtually zero chance of rain and HOT .

NWS TAMPA...400 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms form along coastal locations this morning
then shift inland during the afternoon with scattered coverage.
These storms wind down in the evening over inland southwest
Florida. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Many local rivers and streams are running at elevated to flood
levels. Additional rainfall expected today will have the
potential to result in additional river rises from what is
currently forecast. Residents living along rivers and streams
should remain aware of water levels and be ready to move to higher
ground should flooding be observed.

NWS MIAMI...357 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR...
...DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 TO 107 DEGREES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: There is a chance of thunderstorms mainly this
afternoon as sea breezes push inland over interior South Florida.
Cloud-to-ground lightning is the primary threat.

Temperatures: Heat indices will reach 105 to 107 degrees across much
of South Florida today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

There is a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms through the
period, especially over interior South Florida. The best chances for
thunderstorms will be Saturday through Monday. Lightning is the
primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$
KONARIK

Good Thursday Morning folks!!..only small rain chances for most of us today,good luck to those who do get some!..well Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here..grab a cup, say hello and relax along with us here................have a great day everyone!

say Billsfan..is THIS a cool place to visit?..have you ever been in there?................Fort Lauderdale Antique Car Museum.

gee Hot and Steamy up around AUG's area too whew..drink plenty of Fluids if outdoors folks...............