CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

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CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Mon May 08, 2017 4:51 pm

Time for a fresh blog  :-)

Nothing happening in Florida except for hot dry weather!  Gomey has been on the receiving end of a vast amount of rain in Alabama.  As Aug put it, "No fire issues for him since he had more rain last week than we have had all year!"

I'm not sure if any of you follow Larry Cosgrove's forecasts, but I like this quote from him this past weekend,

"The chances for a substantial El Nino event have fallen rather dramatically. Most of the favored climatic and statistical keeps the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean in a positive/neutral ENSO signature well into next winter. Such a signature, if it verifies, would point to another hot summer in the U.S. below 45 N Latitude; a tropical cyclone season close to what was seen in 2016, with a few more threats from the Caribbean Sea; a cooler autumn, but perhaps a mild winter (basin wide warm alignments against a colder Pacific Decadal Oscillation signal are often a torment for snow lovers).
Much of that could change as we move further along in time. But my confidence is high that we maintain a largely cool May vs. hot JJA chart in the U.S."

Back to Florida - check out the amount of precip the central part of the Florida peninsula needs.....



Florida has been hit hard with wildfires over the past month.  The following is a map of active wildfires as of May 8 2017





Current Fire Danger Indices


Last edited by sangria on Mon May 29, 2017 7:42 am; edited 3 times in total
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Mon May 08, 2017 4:53 pm

Bumping this to the top of the "Latest Topics" list......
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon May 08, 2017 6:56 pm

First!  Well, aside from the host.

Cosgrove is always a nice read.  I could do without a potential repeat of last year tropically - Matthew anyway.

I must confess I dislike the top map.  For example, look at the GA/TN border.  Walk 1 mile and you go from needing no rain to needing upwards of 15".  They paint with too broad a brush.

Smoke has moved back in.  3 days in a row but it's yet to reach ground level.  Just "cloudy".
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Mon May 08, 2017 7:04 pm

I agree about the broad stroke with the top map.  It can even vary widely within the same county.

This is a cool Goes R loop of the fires from Saturday.  It shows the West Mims fire and the Starkey fire here in Pasco.  I grabbed it off of a page on facebook.


https://www.facebook.com/NOAANESDIS/videos/vb.226849284022023/1618549968185274/?type=2&theater
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon May 08, 2017 8:22 pm

That is a cool loop.  Another fairly good sized fire appears up around the Big Bend.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 4:52 am

Thanks for the new Blog and good early Tuesday Morning folks and whew..next few days 90's again and really dry thru the week,man this drought is really getting bad and the fires omg..well I'm setting the Blogs COFFEE to perk for when you get here..grab a cup before going off to work ok,,enjoy...have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 5:36 am

well it looks like a slow weather week,sure wish we could get a day of some good rains,helping put out all those fires around the state..hopefully June and the tropical season helps.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 5:38 am

well ALL the models don't show any good rain thru may 19th from this mornings runs..gee

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 6:09 am

this was on baynews9's news page......................................Commissioner Adam Putnam: Worst wildfire season in years

The Dept. of Agriculture is urging Floridians to heed all burn bans, drought warnings, and take steps to protect their homes and be firewise.

“Florida is in the middle its worst wildfire season in years – with no end in sight,” Agricultural Commissioner Adam Putnam said in a release Monday. “With such an active wildfire season and much of Florida experiencing significant drought conditions, residents and visitors should take every precaution to help prevent wildfire.”

While May is traditionally one of the drier months of the year in Florida, conditions are set to be even drier heading into early summer.

More than 2,000 wildfires have burned over 150,000 acres in Florida this year. As of May 8, there are nearly 125 active wildfires in the state.

Also of concern to the agricultural department is arson. The department says 320 wildfires were started by arsonists so far in 2017, burning more than 20,000 acres.

By comparison, there were nearly 400 arson wildfires in Florida in 2016.

This week is National Arson Awareness Week. The agency is urging Floridians to support suspicious wildfire activity by calling 911, then the department's Arson Alert Hotline at 1-800-342-5869.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 6:21 am

just a note..NWS is mentioning this pacific thing might jump into the Carribbean...

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by waterdipper on Tue May 09, 2017 7:43 am

Nothing new weather wise here, except it is cold this morning. 50 felt rather chilly and I surely wasn't expecting it. No fires in my immediate area, but the fire along the Dixie/Taylor county border gets my attention. Levy county is even drier than those two counties and all it would take would be some idiot and a cigarette to get a massive fire going around here.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 9:00 am

waterdipper wrote:Nothing new weather wise here, except it is cold this morning. 50 felt rather chilly and I surely wasn't expecting it. No fires in my immediate area, but the fire along the Dixie/Taylor county border gets my attention. Levy county is even drier than those two counties and all it would take would be some idiot and a cigarette to get a massive fire going around here.
yeah stay alert and safe up there WD..and here by my in Pinellas county..outside you can just Smell the smoke in the air, probably being blown here from the pasco fires I guess..whew.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 9:39 am

wheni walked my dogs in the park, we have a small lake there..and I saw 3 gaters in the water..cant let the dogs anywhere near the water lol..

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 9:43 am

that Pacific storm crosses cent America into the carribbean then the atlantic (6Z GFS)..

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 10:47 am

latest CMC model has that Pacific storm crossing then over near the lower Bahamas,if that happens..maybe some showers would drift over to south florida?..I guess around the 15th on we should watch to our south and hopefully any rain that does come would be a blessing as it moves out into the atlantic and away...IF indeed this does happen.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 10:53 am

ok its now Invest 90E.......................................................................

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 10:54 am

I'm posting too much again...BBL

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 11:52 am

newest CMC model run for 90E..we May get a few cast off showers SE Florida....

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 2:10 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
920 AM PDT Tue May 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador have become better
organized this morning. If this development trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later today. This system is forecast
to move slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of Central America and southeastern
Mexico through at least Thursday. If tropical cyclone formation
does not occur, another Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 9 PM PDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Tue May 09, 2017 2:12 pm

everything up in the air with 90E...in about 5-6 days we'll see if its survived the crossover and then just how close it comes to florida..it may not even get close..we'll see how this plays out.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Tue May 09, 2017 2:49 pm

LargoFL wrote:I'm posting too much again...BBL

I don't think so. I appreciate you keeping me up to date. That will indeed be interesting if the EPAC storm crosses over.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Tue May 09, 2017 3:41 pm

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
LargoFL wrote:I'm posting too much again...BBL

I don't think so.  I appreciate you keeping me up to date.  That will indeed be interesting if the EPAC storm crosses over.

I agree! Largo, most of us are working during the day so it's nice to come here and see all of your updates. :-)
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Tue May 09, 2017 3:42 pm

Check out this hailstorm from Denver yesterday.


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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Tue May 09, 2017 4:20 pm

sangria wrote:Check out this hailstorm from Denver yesterday.



That guy had some large (hail) stones.  The storms along the front range of the Rockies can be prolific hail producers.  May see a repeat today.  SPC has the main threat further south.  I haven't looked where chasers are congregating but Lubbock, TX may be a good spot.

Edit: Clovis, NM looks better.
 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0200.html
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 2:26 am

sangria wrote:
BillsfaninSoFla wrote:
LargoFL wrote:I'm posting too much again...BBL

I don't think so.  I appreciate you keeping me up to date.  That will indeed be interesting if the EPAC storm crosses over.

I agree!  Largo, most of us are working during the day so it's nice to come here and see all of your updates.  :-)
thanks folks, but let me know when I am posting too much ok..i do try to keep the blog active,its a good blog for us.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 2:29 am

sangria wrote:Check out this hailstorm from Denver yesterday.


h wow,earlier somewhere on the web I saw a pic of this one guy standing in his driveway..holding a bunch of baseball sized hailstone..omg those sure can cause damage and injury too if a person is caught outside huh.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 2:32 am

well models this early Wednesday morning are now NOT so sure 90E will crossover central America like they did yesterday,right now just something to watch on this slow weather week huh.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 2:43 am

90E is now TS Adrian...................................................................

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 5:59 am

Good Wednesday Morning Folks!! another HOT and DRY day ahead of us here,stay cool and I guess from now on we better get used to these high 80's and 90's for the many months ahead huh...well I'm setting the Blogs COFFEE to perk for when You get here..im already on my second cup LOL,dogs love to get me up real early...have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 7:58 am

TS Adrian is the earliest Pacific storm to form on record.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 8:31 am

well per the GFS,we'll have to wait till around the 24th-26th for any good rains..but that's too far out in time to believe.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by BillsfaninSoFla on Wed May 10, 2017 10:14 am

Good morning everyone!

Another warm, dry day on hand.

The High pressure needs to chill out. Sad

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:22 am

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good morning everyone!

Another warm, dry day on hand.  

The High pressure needs to chill out.  Sad
good Morning Billsfan..yes really warm here by me also whew.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:23 am

wishful thinking but would be nice if Adrian crossed Yucatan into gulf and weakened...

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:24 am

gee we sure could use a lot of Adrians rains here huh

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:30 am

this is probably the forecast for all of us thru Friday huh...................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017

.UPDATE...

...Hot and dry conditions with a Very High Fire Danger through
Friday...

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:34 am

Now I know I'm OLD..i remember every one of these,especially Connie in NYC....

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:41 am

as a young boy I remember the 1950's as a very active Hurricane time,seems like every year the adults were very nervous,my dad buying supplies etc it seems like after that..things quieted down very few hurrricanes coming into the states,yes there were a few but nothing like the 50's..something weather wise changed I imagine..I don't ever want to see a decade like that ever again, especially now living in florida lol..Donna for sure would have been really bad for us today,so much population growth since then in Florida.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Wed May 10, 2017 11:47 am

well we have a few weeks yet till the Tropical season kicks in,hopefully the upper wind direction changes and goes east to west..bringing in the atlantic and Caribbean rains we so badly need here huh,news says we are in a severe drought...just think..our water supply mostly comes from underground..and if this drought lasts a long time..those underground springs could begin to lower and I don't want to see Water worries here huh..well just trying to bring up some talk in here lol...BBL.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by StAugustineFL on Wed May 10, 2017 4:12 pm

Good afternoon.  It's currently 95 degrees at my location but dew points are low so it's not oppressive by any means.  I walked 2 miles over lunch when it was 92 and only broke a light sweat.  Had the dew points been elevated I would've been soaked.

NWS forecast.  97 tomorrow then it cools a few degrees.  I hotlinked so this will update over time. This is a bit inaccurate as the current conditions are from the St Aug airport along the coast.
The grid forecast is for my area.  Jax NWS 7 Day Forecast
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Wed May 10, 2017 4:47 pm

Afternoon all.... Sorry to do this Aug, but this is the current temp here...




Even with that, the red flag warnings are flying down here!

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Wed May 10, 2017 5:04 pm

That is interesting - Duval and Pinellas counties never allow open burning



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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 2:48 am

sangria wrote:That is interesting - Duval and Pinellas counties never allow open burning



yeah Pinellas is possibly too urban for open burning,I know Largo Sanitation picks up all yard waste once a week,with trucks just for that purpose so no need to burn here by me thank goodness lol

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 2:51 am

Good Early Thursday Morning folks!!!...another HOT sunny day again for us,and no rain chances once again here by my area.....Blogs COFFEE is perking for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 7:32 am

Jenny..you might get some rain Friday night..good luck ok................................................SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The closed low over the Southern Rockies will absorb into the
northern stream flow through tonight and progress across the
Mississippi Valley and Southeast through Saturday. A few showers
may be possible as early as Friday afternoon across the Panhandle
as the upper trough begins to enhance the coastal front. However,
the majority of the rain will likely hold off until Friday night
as the cold front moves into the region. At this time severe
weather is not anticipated due to the forecast weak LLJ and
instability and shear that likely won`t be enough to compensate
for the modest strength of the other. Decent WNW flow in the wake
of the front will result in lee cyclogenesis along the GA/SC line
and will funnel moisture and some enhanced convergence into our GA
and Big Bend counties through the day on Saturday. Average
rainfall amounts from Friday through Saturday will likely be below
a half of an inch, though some isolated spots could pick up near
an inch of rain. Each afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than
the previous, with upper 80s expected on Friday and mid 80s on
Saturday.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 7:35 am

well this morning it seems like Adrian in the pacific cant get its act together..a crossover doesn't seem likely now.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 11:55 am

ORLANDO, Fla. —
The wet season in Central Florida lasts an average of five months. It generally begins in late May and runs through mid-October.....................................well the GFS IS saying after may 24th our rain chances Do go up....lets pray this happens...news is saying our water sources etc are indeed going down,like ponds and streams etc...just hope our underground sources for water don't go dry,this drought has been long lasting alright.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by sangria on Thu May 11, 2017 4:10 pm

Afternoon all....

Here is the NAM 84hr total QPF  ...  not looking good for this weekend's "chance" of rain.
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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 4:46 pm

sangria wrote:Afternoon all....

Here is the NAM 84hr total QPF  ...  not looking good for this weekend's "chance" of rain.
yeah,local met only hesitates at giving us a 30% chance of a passing shower..the front will bring showers to northern florida..like big bend area and panhandle...our turn will come Sang..tropical season is only a few weeks away.

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Re: CLOSED 5/8/2017 Florida/Alabama Weather Blog

Post by LargoFL on Thu May 11, 2017 4:47 pm

Jenny good luck on rain tomorrow evening etc...................................

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