FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND THE HOLIDAY SEASON WEATHER

SAN..please close this Blog thanks

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 AM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

.DISCUSSION (Today - Sunday)...
Ample post-frontal low level moisture and light winds in
the wake of a cold front will continue to support areas of
low clouds and some patchy fog across the forecast area the
remainder of the morning. Thereafter cooler and drier air
advecting into the region on a northwest to northerly wind
flow will support pleasant dry weather with the low clouds
and fog gradually getting scoured out with skies becoming
mostly sunny by mid morning and continuing into the
afternoon. Temperatures today will be much cooler than
previous days with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the
Nature Coast, and upper 60s to lower 70s central and south.

During tonight into Tuesday a short wave trough will move
off the Carolina coast with another trailing short wave
moving across the state during Wednesday afternoon and
night. A dry and stable air mass over the region associated
with high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will preclude
any rain chances with the passage of these features with
just a reinforcing surge of cooler air expected which will
support noticeably cooler overnight lows in the 40s area-
wide through early Thursday morning with daytime highs on
Tues/Wed in the 60s.

On Thursday and into Friday the high over the southeastern
states will sink southeast over the peninsula, and then
move east-southeast into the Atlantic on Saturday as the
next upstream upper level trough and attendant cold front
approaches from the west. During next weekend rain chances
will be on the increase as the upper level trough/cold front
approach and impact the area. Models this morning continue
to differ some with the timing of this front with the GFS
remaining faster compared to the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions, but all models do show increasing chances for
showers late Saturday night into Sunday as the front
approaches and moves south through the region. Given the
differences in the models will keep the inherited pops (40
to 50 percent) in place for now. After some below normal
temperatures through early Thursday readings will warm back
to near normal on Friday and then above normal on Saturday
with lows moderating back into the 50s with daytime highs
climbing into the mid and upper 70s. Below normal
temperatures will return again late Sunday into early next
week as cooler/drier air advects into the region on a brisk
and gusty northwest wind flow in the wake of the front.

&&

Good Monday Morning Folks!!..a lil cooler here this morning as I walked the dogs..it seems the cooler temps are back this week and little or no rain chances around Tampa bay area until this weekend they are guessing..well have a great day everyone!!

lets keep a close eye on the front and/or storms this coming sunday..alot of uncertainty how strong it will get...

WD watch this front sunday, it could..drop ALOT of rain up there but still early yet..could change.....

wow the CMC model also says alot of rain for some people..whew .....................................

our new chatroom.................. https://weatherchatroom.forumotion.com/t198p950-florida-alabama-and-the-holiday-season-weather#20729

well its about 61 here, sun has broken out thru the clouds earlier..a cool but nice day ahead huh

Remember December? It was hot and wet, panhandle was 12” above normal!
http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/images/flmonthly2018_12.pdf

SAN....this Blog needs to be closed...thanks