FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND THE HOLIDAY SEASON WEATHER

Hello and Welcome to our new Blog!!

Local TV Met is mentioning 2 fronts coming to florida this week, 1st one is weak and should be over us today and tonight..the Next Front is stronger and we may have the possibility of some rain and possible strong winds..too early to know just yet but wens night.. Thurs morning could get a bit interesting.

Important--for our central Florida east coast folks...............................Tue Nov 13 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Weather and ocean conditions will combine to produce a HIGH RIP
CURRENT THREAT along the beaches of east central Florida today.
The risk will be present all day but will be greatest after 3 PM
due to tidal effects. Check with your local beach patrol for more
information about ocean hazards. Always swim near a lifeguard and
never swim alone.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Afternoon and evening lightning storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy downpours, and dangerous
lightning strikes. Storms motion will be to the north-northeast
around 25 mph. Highest chances will be south of a line from
Orlando to the Cape and out over the Atlantic waters. Lightning
storms will remain possible tonight but mainly over the Atlantic
waters.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Afternoon and evening lightning storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts around 35 knots over the intracoastal and
Atlantic waters, as well as the inland lakes. Storms motion will
be to the north-northeast around 20 knots. Highest chances will be
south of a line from Orlando to the Cape and out over the
Atlantic waters. Mariners should be on the lookout for any storms
from the south and southwest this afternoon and evening.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Marginal to poor boating conditions continue over the offshore
waters beyond 20 nautical miles as 4 foot easterly swell continues
to impact the local Atlantic. Small craft should exercise caution
this afternoon for seas up to 6 feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A slight chance of lightning storms will continue through
Wednesday night, and a moderate risk of rip currents will likely
continue through mid-week. Boating conditions will become poor to
hazardous by late week as north winds freshen behind a cold
front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Bragaw

Thanks Largo. WPC precip forecast - this is the 5 day but all will be the next couple of days.

Aug..tv met said a Large LOW is forming out in the gulf and its supposed to go into and cross over northern Florida, im guessing with the second front..stay alert and safe up there ok

gee the panhandle sure has been getting ALOT of rain up there.hope no flooding.........

wow maybe a light freeze tonight by gome.........................Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1130 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
1130 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A light freeze will be possible, occurring mainly over interior
sections southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, generally
along and west of a line stretching from Butler Alabama to Wiggins
Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Monday.

$$

could be some cold overnight temps in northern florida when that strong cold front gets here..dig out the long john's etc lol

Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!..well today could be..our Last hot day temp wise. we'll see how this plays out, one good thing is..rain chances way up to 50-60% yesss!! just hope no Bad winds etc once the front gets here huh...well have a great day everyone!!

Morning All,
Looks like some cooler weather is coming. Yeah!!
I don't see a lot of rain with this low but time will tell.
I saw the long long range and looks like a big low moving threw the gulf say Nov 22,23 time frame.
We shall see!!
Have a great day all
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Looks like some cooler weather is coming. Yeah!!
I don't see a lot of rain with this low but time will tell.
I saw the long long range and looks like a big low moving threw the gulf say Nov 22,23 time frame.
We shall see!!
Have a great day all
John Z-hills

hiya john, yeah some cooler temps coming finally, have a great day also!!

yeah John.for sure we may need to watch this gulf LOW carefully huh.......................

Morning. I saw the potential next week storm as well. Hopefully it slows down a bit for those with Thanksgiving travel plans.

NWS Melbourne...546 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
The best chance for thunderstorms will be along and north of the
I 4 corridor from late this afternoon into tonight. The primary
threat will be cloud to ground lightning along with locally heavy
rain and gusty winds up to 40 mph. Storm motion will be toward the
north northeast at 20 to 30 mph.

well gutters cleaned out, whew they were chock full of leaves, gee i cleaned them out just a few days ago..you gotta LOVE the Fall season huh LOL

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
950 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Morning satellite imagery shows considerable low stratus
across western sections of the forecast area early this
morning along with some lingering patchy fog. As the
morning continues expect the low clouds and fog to mix out
with partly sunny skies developing by mid to late morning.
As for the rest of today expect the weak cold front across
the central peninsula to stall out as weak low pressure
develops on it over the eastern Gulf later today, with this
low then tracking northeast across the northern peninsula
tonight bringing with it increasing rain chances to the
area. In the interim though increasing amounts of sun later
this morning and into the afternoon will likely help to set
off some showers during the first half of the afternoon,
with higher rain chances expected across central and northern
zones during mid to late afternoon as the aforementioned
low develops and overall convergence increase across the
region. Will remove early morning fog wording in a mid
morning update, otherwise the rest of the forecast is on
track with no other changes planned at this time.

&&

NWS MIAMI...1054 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS NORTHERN AREAS INCREASING ALL AREAS TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
east coast beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
northern areas this afternoon before increasing to chance late
tonight. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible over the
southern areas late tonight. The primary impacts will be lightning
strikes and locally heavy rainfall.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday ahead of a cold front.
Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

Low temperatures will be falling to around 50 west of Lake
Okeechobee Friday morning. The Lows will continue to cool Friday
night into Saturday with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s west of
Lake Okeechobee to upper 40s to lower 50s over rest of the interior
and west coast metro areas.

Atlantic seas will be building to 7 feet Thursday night into Friday,
as the Offshore Gulf seas will be building to 6 to 8 feet on
Thursday.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter

AUG 12Z GFS puts the Gulf LOW right over or close to your area 22-23rd..............

Thanks Largo.

See below link to Florida Climate report for October.  Hot (Pensacola +5°) and dry (Lauderdale -5"). Dry, except for a certain part of the panhandle, although for the month Tallahassee was only 1" above normal.

According to the report Michael devastated this years cotton and peanut crop.  Looking at the aerial photos I imagine the pecan industry for Florida is done since all the trees were blown over.

October Florida Climate Report

Thanks, StPete. I had heard earlier that the pecan crop was devastated, and it wasn't certain if it could make it back. I would bet on the same result as frozen citrus land in the 80's. It all gets sold for development.

Thanks for the new blog Largo.
Depressing news Aug.

91 today. Experts say in the high 50’s-60’s by Friday. We shall see. Would be welcome.

StPeteFLwx wrote:Thanks Largo.

See below link to Florida Climate report for October.  Hot (Pensacola +5°) and dry (Lauderdale -5"). Dry, except for a certain part of the panhandle, although for the month Tallahassee was only 1" above normal.

According to the report Michael devastated this years cotton and peanut crop.  Looking at the aerial photos I imagine the pecan industry for Florida is done since all the trees were blown over.

October Florida Climate Report

thanks for this St.Pete..yes that Hurricane really did a Number on that part of the state alright..whew

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks for the new blog Largo.  
Depressing news Aug.

91 today. Experts say in the high 50’s-60’s by Friday.  We shall see. Would be welcome.  

hiya Billsfan..wow 50's or 60's by you...wow when that gets there it sure would feel great after this extended Heat of 90's still down by you huh...enjoy..i just hope we dont get any bad winds etc from this front

Good Thursday Morning folks..wow i must have gotten a lil rain here earlier grass and everything outside is glistening in the street lights..and man..its really WINDY here,,if its the same by you..be a lil extra careful driving,already outside i can see some tree debris in the street..well 68 degree's outside and local met says it goes downhill from here,,Enjoy!!!,,,have a wonderful day everyone weekend is fast approaching!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
428 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.DISCUSSION (Today - Next Wednesday)...
The line of showers along the cold front moving through the
interior and southwest Florida at this time will exit the region
before sunrise with some lingering patches of light rain for a
few hours behind the boundary. Breezy northwest winds behind the
front will usher in much cooler drier air, but this air moving
over the rather warm gulf waters will lead to abundant low clouds
into this afternoon. Skies will clear tonight with northerly winds
continuing to advect drier air southward allowing temperatures to
dip into the upper 30s north to lower 50s near the coast from
around Tampa Bay southward. For Friday and Friday night surface
high pressure will settle over the lower Mississippi Valley with
the cool dry pattern persisting. On Saturday this high drifts east
into the southeast states and weakens on Sunday as the next cool
front approaches. This will shift low level winds to a more
northeast direction beginning the gradual moderating trend with
temperatures returning to near normal values by Sunday. Early next
week the weakening cool front will move across the region with
another area of high pressure setting up across the eastern U.S.
continuing the fair weather and general northeast flow with near
normal temperatures and no rain expected at this time.

&&

wow big temp change tonight huh John..bundle up if outside.25mph winds will make it seem colder..

JRnOldsmar wrote:Thanks, StPete.  I had heard earlier that the pecan crop was devastated, and it wasn't certain if it could make it back.  I would bet on the same result as frozen citrus land in the 80's.  It all gets sold for development.

I hope they don't sell the land for commercial or residential development. We have enough issues with overpopulation in the state the way it is.

Enjoy your taste of fall bills! Steady temps in the low 60's here today then 40 tonight. Brrrr.

Had quite the storm between midnight and 1 AM this morning. Quite a few C2G lightning strikes, gusty winds, heavy rain, and a tornado warning. Radar estimates show a stripe of 1-2" over my area. Seems right. I'll check my total in 30 minutes when it lightens up outdoors.

I'd like to take the time to remind you folks way up in northern florida and panhandle area's, some mets say over night temps the next few days could, sink down into the lower 30's..now something we here in florida dont think about much...frozen outdoor unprotected water pipes etc...hopefully temps wont sink down WAY too much..but if you suspect in YOUR area it may...probably a good idea to cover those exposed pipes huh.

Autumn Frost and Freeze Information for the NWS Tallahassee Area


The frost/freeze program looks at three different temperature thresholds - frost (36°), freeze (32°) and hard freeze (23°), meaning we issue frost advisories for temperatures of 33-36° when frost is expected, a freeze watch/warning for temperatures of 24-32° and a hard freeze watch/warning for temperatures of 23° or less. Note though, the definition of hard freeze can vary from NWS office to office.

Since frost can form at or near ground level while observed air temperatures are slightly above freezing, frost advisories are issued for the 33-36° temperature range. Air temperatures are observed at a height of 2 meters (6.56 feet) above ground level. At night, heat radiates away from the ground, leaving the air very close to the ground the coldest. Therefore, when temperatures being observed by the sensor range between 32° and 36°, the temperature at ground level may be cold enough to support frost formation, given light winds and high relative humidity.

Good Thursday morning. I wasn't sure if this front was ever going to make it far enough east to come through the peninsula after it has been hung up in the panhandle all week. It was great to see it finally started moving yesterday afternoon and has cleared most of the state by now. The 1.1" I got in the rain gauge overnight was far more than I expected. The cloud cover is still very think with some mist in the air, but surprisingly, it is not very windy. I guess the breeze will pick up later in the day. It is currently 58 out and it Looks like our high temp for the day won't get much warmer and the temps will stay steady and begin to fall off later this afternoon. Mid to upper 30's is forecast for the next couple of nights, but I doubt there will be any widespread frost with this cold snap in North Central Florida.

LargoFL wrote:I'd like to take the time to remind you folks way up in northern florida and panhandle area's, some mets say over night temps the next few days could, sink down into the lower 30's..now something we here in florida dont think about much...frozen outdoor unprotected water pipes etc...hopefully temps wont sink down WAY too much..but if you suspect in YOUR area it may...probably a good idea to cover those exposed pipes huh.

It won't happen this go-round here but I'm always mindful of protecting the exposed pipes when cold temps are in the forecast.  I wrap them up once and leave that way through the cold weather season.  No use covering, uncovering, covering, etc... with each cold snap/warm spell making for extra work.

Gauge had 1.4".  2.38" the past 3 days which is roughly average for the month just for that brief period.  3.62" month-to-date which is considerably above average.  It's been a good year all-in-all with precip distribution.  YTD total is 55.84".  June was the "wettest" with 8.84".  Longest stretch with no rain was Feb. with 12 consecutive days of no measurable rainfall.

StAugustineFL wrote:

LargoFL wrote:I'd like to take the time to remind you folks way up in northern florida and panhandle area's, some mets say over night temps the next few days could, sink down into the lower 30's..now something we here in florida dont think about much...frozen outdoor unprotected water pipes etc...hopefully temps wont sink down WAY too much..but if you suspect in YOUR area it may...probably a good idea to cover those exposed pipes huh.

It won't happen this go-round here but I'm always mindful of protecting the exposed pipes when cold temps are in the forecast.  I wrap them up once and leave that way through the cold weather season.  No use covering, uncovering, covering, etc... with each cold snap/warm spell making for extra work.

Gauge had 1.4".  2.38" the past 3 days which is roughly average for the month just for that brief period.  3.62" month-to-date which is considerably above average.  It's been a good year all-in-all with precip distribution.  YTD total is 55.84".  June was the "wettest" with 8.84".  Longest stretch with no rain was Feb. with 12 consecutive days of no measurable rainfall.

yes some area's really had some good rainfall lately..not so much in my area,but this time of year here its sprinkler time again

NWS MIAMI...859 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead and along
the cold front today could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
There is also a slight risk for funnel clouds with this activity as
it reaches the east coast.

Waterspouts: There is a slight chance of waterspouts ahead and along
with the cold front today.

Wind: The wind is forecast to increase to 20 to 25 kts across the
Gulf waters this morning, and persist into the evening hours. The
wind across the Atlantic waters are forecast to be between 20 and 25
kts tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters
through tomorrow.

Flooding: Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the cold front today could create the ponding of water on roads,
particularly in poorly drained and low-lying areas of the east coast
metropolitan area.

Waves: Seas of 7 to 8 feet are forecast for the Gulf waters,
especially in the off shore waters today. They are also forecast to
build in the Atlantic waters to 7 to 8 feet by early Friday morning.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters through
tomorrow.

well here its about 70 and its raining lightly now with some showers passing by me.

wow its going to be a Cold night around here tonight if NWS predictions are correct....

winds picked up some around here and temps are down to 65 degree's right now..whats the temps in Your area

Get the woolies out for 2 nights Largo. I may possibly light a fire tonight but will see how the internal house temps respond to the cooler outdoor temps.

StAugustineFL wrote:Get the woolies out for 2 nights Largo.  I may possibly light a fire tonight but will see how the internal house temps respond to the cooler outdoor temps.

yes for sure AUG,just dug out my long johns just in case LOL

well it says with this light rain here by me i picked up .011 inches so far..hey every drop counts huh lol

Billsfan....NWS MIAMI...1031 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.NOW...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and push
towards the Atlantic coast ahead of a cold front expected to move
through the area later today. These showers and thunderstorms will
be capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and
the occasional lightning strike.

$$

LargoFL wrote:wow big temp change tonight huh John..bundle up if outside.25mph winds will make it seem colder..

Largo I am ready for the cooler weather
John

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:wow big temp change tonight huh John..bundle up if outside.25mph winds will make it seem colder..

Largo I am ready for the cooler weather
John

ok, its coming tonight wow..here by me its just about 2pm and already its down to 59 degree's..bay and gulf water temps usually make my county a tad warmer than inland area's..we'll see tonight..

FXUS62 KTBW 151755
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1255 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Friday)...
The upper trough will continue to swing through the state
tonight, with a secondary through stalling across north FL,
keeping W/SW flow in place across the local area through the
period. At the surface, high pressure will continue to
build into the region with the clouds clearing out of the
area and cooler and drier air moving in. Breezy N/NW winds
will turn to the N/NE Friday and diminish a bit as the high
center moves NE into the deep south. Lows tonight expected
to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s north, mid 40s inland
to mid 50s coastal central, and lower to mid 50s south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night-Thursday)...
Surface ridging will continue across the area through the
weekend as conditions moderate with E/NE winds in place, and
aloft generally W/SW flow remains across the area. A weak
front then moves into the area Monday night/Tuesday, with
upper energy lingering across the area through the end of
the period. A few showers possible with this, but most areas
are expected to remain dry. Some drier air moves in behind
the front as high pressure builds back in from the north,
but temps expected to remain about the same through the end
of the period. Highs will linger in the 70s to around 80
through the period, with lows warming from the 40s to lower
50s Friday night to in the 50s to lower 60s Saturday night
through the rest of the period.

&&

000
FXUS62 KTBW 160805
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
305 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For those who have been waiting for it to start feeling like fall
across west-central and SW Florida then today is your day!
Temperatures this morning will be quite cool by Florida standards
with 30s and 40s across the Nature Coast, mid 40s to lower 50s across
the Tampa Bay area with mid 50s across far SW Florida. Surface high
pressure settling north of the region will keep ample CAA in place
today with northerly winds. Despite the ample sunshine today, temps
will not get out of the 60s except perhaps a few 70 degree readings
across the far southern zones. Tonight as winds get light, an ideal
radiational cooling scenario appears likely with temps dropping
quickly after sunset. Overnight lows in the upper 30s again expected
across the Nature Coast with 40s across central zones with lower 50s
in far SW FL.

Good Friday Morning Folks!!..Cool outside here this early Friday Morning..about 50 degree's here by me..quite a change but we need this cool down...have a wonderful day everyone!!

TV reporter was saying some inland and northern roadways were reporting heavy Frost on the roadways..be careful driving folks

up in Pensacola FL its 36 degree's as i write this...brrrr..gee thats COLD