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Late January through February outlook

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Late January through February outlook - Page 16 Empty Re: Late January through February outlook

Post by LargoFL on Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:08 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:
StPeteFLwx wrote:At the airport in New Orleans and the Weather Channel is on. No volume but looks like east coast Florida is really getting it. Any reports from Aug?[/quote}

It wasn't bad here.  Got clipped yesterday morning by a brief downpour on my way out the door to work.  .72" in the gauge.  Northern Flagler/southern St Johns County were in the sweet spot.  It was quite breezy as well.  I'm sure the beaches took a pounding with wind/surf.
glad your ok Aug!!
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Post by LargoFL on Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:18 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
318 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
Strong surface high pressure extending from off the coast of
New England into the southeastern US will gradually build
south into Florida today and Saturday. This pattern will
setup light northeasterly to easterly winds across the
area, which will give way to an onshore sea breeze near the
coast each afternoon. Under this weak subsidence and partly
cloudy skies, warm and pleasant conditions are expected,
with temperatures running near normal.

Rain chances will generally remain minimal today and
Saturday, however a weak shortwave passing east through
Florida on Saturday will allow for a slight chance of
afternoon showers, mainly over the interior.
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Post by LargoFL on Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:21 am

good Friday morning Folks and TGIF!!!........about 60 degrees here by me right now, and about 80 they say later today so a nice couple of days then some cold fronts come..but for now a nice weekend for us....enjoy..have a great day everyone!!
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Post by StPeteFLwx on Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:20 am

Looks like everybody but us will be dealing with this next couple days
Late January through February outlook - Page 16 Allfcsts_loop_ndfd

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Post by StAugustineFL on Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:11 am

Good morning. Looking at St Pete's map above looks pretty good for rain up this way. Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be wet with 1-2". That works for me. March will end here with 1.47" of rain. Average is 4.1" so roughly 65% below average for the month. Temps here are only going to be in the 60's Mon/Tue. Sunny and upper 70's/low 80's this weekend though which is perfect.
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Post by LargoFL on Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:33 am

Good Saturday Morning Folks!! yeah st pete i sure hope WE get some rain when that Gulf LOW crosses northern Florida, but it looks like we might be in a dry spot huh, well good luck to our friends up there!! well a nice day ahead here today enjoy!!...have a great day everyone!!
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Post by LargoFL on Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:32 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
223 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A weak short wave trough has moved east of the area allowing for the
morning clouds to clear out and move east giving way to mostly sunny
skies for the rest of today. Weak ridging builds in behind this
trough through Monday before the next upper trough moves through on
Tuesday next week. Upper ridging builds in behind this trough by
early Thursday morning and persists through the end of next week.

On the surface, broad high pressure southeast of Nova Scotia ridges
southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico to produce
pleasant weather for the next couple of days. Farther to the
northwest, an area of low pressure and associated cold front extends
through the Mississippi River Valley. The will be the weather system
that gives us our next chance of any weather over the region as the
front moves into the area from the northwest. A chance of showers
can be expected on Monday and Tuesday afternoon with the highest
coverage north of Tampa Bay along the Nature Coast. Surface high
pressure builds in once again over the southeast U.S. by early
Wednesday morning bringing pleasant weather back to the region to
close out next week. A slight cool down can be expected on Monday
and Tuesday, but other than that temperatures will remain around
seasonal average through the period.

&&
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Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:48 am

good Sunday Morning folks...a Nice day ahead for us...enjoy ..have a wonderful day everyone!!
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Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:48 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant, warm and benign weather continues today with weak
stacked ridging moving into the W Atlantic as Great Lakes
upper low pushes trailing cold front into the Deep South
with slight chances mainly over Levy County.

Tonight into Monday, a fast moving southern stream shortwave
moves out of TX as the surface cold front stalls over the
Nature Coast to C FL Peninsula with showers likely and slight
chance of thunderstorms over N zones. Rain chances limited
S of the front with increasing cloud cover through the day.
Additional upper energy to move over the region as weak low
pressure area develops along the frontal boundary Monday
Night into early Tuesday with cloud cover and rain shield
over central to southern zones ending Tuesday. Temps expected
to generally remain below seasonal averages.

Drier conditions to build into the region Tue nt-Wed with
slowly moderating conditions Thu as surface high pressure
moves from the Deep South to the Mid Atlantic. Next system
to move through the region Fri/Sat timeframe.

&&
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Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:07 am

Morning. You folks in central and south FL be on the lookout on Tuesday.

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 BaySYt1

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula Tuesday
morning into mid afternoon.

...FL Peninsula...

Strong short-wave trough will approach the FL Peninsula early in the
day3 period. Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the
eastern Gulf basin ahead of this feature and a plume of higher PW
and buoyancy is forecast to spread across the peninsula early
Tuesday. Most significant destabilization will occur prior to
deepening westerly flow ahead of a pronounced cold front. Latest NAM
model guidance suggests mid-upper 60s surface dew points will return
to regions south of a stalled synoptic front. This should result in
ample surface-based instability for robust thunderstorm development.
Forecast soundings suggest environmental shear/buoyancy will prove
favorable for organized rotating updrafts and possible supercell
development. The introduction of 5% severe probs appears warranted
to account for early-day supercell threat that should linger into
the mid afternoon hours. Westerly flow is expected to
deepen/strengthen ahead of a surging cold front as surface low
refocuses off the northern FL Atlantic coast.
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Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:57 pm

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 1554053641
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Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:58 pm

thanks for the warning AUG..Tuesday might get a bit stormy here huh
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Post by LargoFL on Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:01 pm

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 Fl_rain_tomorrow
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:02 am

oh oh, Stay alert....please read this.............................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
319 AM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging aloft the Gulf coast this moving slides east over the
Atlantic by late Tue as a short wave trough tracks from the Four
corners region to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface a
cold front along the eastern seaboard this morning extends across
north FL and westward over the north Gulf of Mexico as high pressure
sprawls out from the mid-Mississippi Valley. Through Tue the high
pressure slides offshore while ridging back to the southern
plains/western Gulf coast. Meanwhile the front settles into central
FL then stalls with a low pressure center forming on the portion of
the front just east of FL early Tue. The low treks to the northeast
Tue night with the formerly stalled front exiting into far south FL.

The approaching front will bring deep moisture and provide lift for
scattered to at times categorical showers - tapering off tonight.
The bulk of the precipitation will be right along and north of the
I-4 Corridor. During Tue the s/w trough to the north and the
surface low forming east of the state will maintain adequate
moisture and lift which along with surface instability will
continue to support showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms...
favoring the morning hours. Some of the storms will be robust to
possibly severe - with a marginal risk of severe storms Tue for
central FL.


For Wed through Sun: Ridging aloft builds over the Gulf region...
flattens some Fri when a short wave trough moves east through the
Deep South...then briefly builds back in Sat before another short
wave trough approaches Sun. The surface high pressure ridge over
the southern plains/western Gulf coast traverses across the
southeast quarter of the nation to the Atlantic by Thu then
continues east. A cold front moves in along the northern Gulf
coast Sat and stalls there Sun. Wed and Thu will be dry but the
two short wave troughs and stalled front to the north will help
generate some rain chances Fri-Sun. Temperatures near to slightly
below normal Wed gradually warm to above for the weekend.

&&
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:06 am

Good Monday Morning Folks!! well if this all verifies and this bad front stalls over the I-4 corridor..im in for some heavy rains and/or storms next few days..i'd better get up there and blow out the gutters this morning....April is here huh..well have a great day everyone!
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:10 am

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 Fl2
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:12 am

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:18 am

I dunno..GFS and other models take the LOW and heavy rains across Florida but across northern Florida not I-4..i guess we'll just have to let this play out and see what happens..i just hope for all of us..these heavy winds etc doesnt cause any of us any damage huh..these spring storms and fronts can get pretty bad sometimes...IF you get Bad storms please let us know ok...here we watch out for one another dont we...stay alert and safe.
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:50 am

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2019

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible early in the period across portions
of the central Florida Peninsula.

...FL Peninsula...

Strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
Gulf States late day1 then off the Carolina Coast by 03/00z. New
model guidance suggests surface low that responds to this feature
will quickly develop off the southeast Atlantic Coast before
maturing as it ejects northeast. Earlier thoughts regarding the
potential severe threat over the FL Peninsula have been tempered
somewhat as westerly flow is expected to deepen/strengthen early
Tuesday. Additionally, frontal convergence should be minimized as
the boundary surges south across the Peninsula. Even so, there is
some concern that adequate moisture/instability plume will spread
across the central Peninsula for potential robust convection. Will
maintain 5% severe probs to account for this threat; however, if
later model guidance continues with a more progressive pattern then
severe probs may need to be lowered across this region.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None

..Darrow.. 04/01/2019
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:51 am

anyone want to make an April-May new blog??
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:30 pm

ok solid overcast here and real light rain by me..its about 1:30pm
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:10 pm

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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:11 pm

well light rain here..street and grass all wet..im a happy camper lol
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:55 pm

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 1554151321
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Post by LargoFL on Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:55 pm

well guess no one is here..good night
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:28 am

Late January through February outlook - Page 16 1554198121
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:31 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
329 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft - A short wave trough over the lower Mississippi Valley
early this morning tracks east...slips offshore tonight...then
slides up along the eastern seaboard Wed. Ridging over the
central/southern plains flattens slightly as it moves over the
southeast U.S. Wed. Surface - A stalled frontal boundary resides
along the southeast U.S. coast and across central FL as the s/w
trough spins up a low on it early this morning - off the
GA/northeast FL coast. The low takes a northeastward tack today
and Wed as the frontal boundary drops south - reaching the Florida
Keys tonight. High pressure moves into the region from the west
tonight then shifts out over the Atlantic Wed.

There are some low clouds and patchy fog around but with rather
limited coverage and confined mainly to the I-4 Corridor north.
These begin to lift and mix out an hour or so after sunrise when
showers and thunderstorms begin to move in - as the formally
stalled front starts to move east and south. Rain chances range
from slight chance to locally likely this morning then trend down
during the afternoon and end by evening. The best dynamics for
thunderstorms will stay to our north...with the upper short wave
trough and deepening surface low. However we can expected some
isolated storms through out the day. Wed will be dry with sunny to
mostly sunny skies.
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Post by JRnOldsmar on Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:15 pm

Not much rain up my way, Largo. I've only seen a trace from yesterday and our prior event. I might have pulled in .05 from today's action. I'll have to keep watering some plants that I've replaced this year. Maybe better luck next week.
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:51 pm

JRnOldsmar wrote:Not much rain up my way, Largo.  I've only seen a trace from yesterday and our prior event.  I might have pulled in .05 from today's action.  I'll have to keep watering some plants that I've replaced this year.  Maybe better luck next week.
hi JR..yes i got enough today to wet the street and grass a lil lol..yeah im hoping for some good rainfall too JR..well good luck ok
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Post by LargoFL on Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:43 pm

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