CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

Best of luck to your friends and family JR and rjla67. Hope I don't appear alarmist but this is a significant threat.



Been lots of uncertainty what happens after the stall. Latest NHC forecast now has it pushing east towards LA. Some of the forecast points are so tightly clustered NHC had to skip a few.

0.3 from the boomers tonight. After 10 dry days, this is very welcome. Just a little disappointing with the nearby pws' at .6, .8 and 1.5. 2 cells merged above me (extremely crazy low-level cloud interactions) but the cores kept their distance.

StAugustineFL wrote:Best of luck to your friends and family JR and rjla67.

Thanks, Aug.  Along with BillsFan's potential in-laws.

StAugustineFL wrote:  Hope I don't appear alarmist but this is a significant threat.

With a potential cat 3/4 heading toward the barrier islands and the hill country with possible double digit rainfall amounts, then hanging around for a bit, sound the alarm Aug.

We moved to Corpus Christi a year after 1970 Cat 3 Hurricane Celia.  My earliest cognition of what a hurricane can do was while experiencing 1971 Hurricane Fern (which wasn't much) while watching a tv special about Celia. Quite an eye opener for a 10-year old.

Watching Harvey expanding Not good. Be safe Gomey family in Mobile too. Uggh.

well its real early Friday morning and Billsfan's area under the gun once again....

My Prayers for those families and friends there in Texas!..just read on a discussion of a possible 12 foot high storm surge as it comes ashore,a Major Hurricane,nothing to fool around with for sure..this is one storm you board up the house and leave..i sure would gee.

for us here today into Saturday morning we'll deal with 92's storms and rain.................

Good Early Friday Morning Folks!...well had a good rain event again last night..not as long lasting as it was Wednesday night but a good soaking rain anyway here..lets see how it goes with 92 thru today huh............well again i'd like to add my Prayer's to those folks in Texas who will be dealing with a Major hurricane probably for days geez......well Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here...enjoy. have a great day everyone and TGIF!!!

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
403 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

FLZ066>075-168-172>174-250415-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170826T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-
Inland Collier-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-
Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
403 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of South Florida, including the following areas,
Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Hendry, Inland Broward,
Inland Collier, Inland Miami-Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Mainland
Monroe, Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.

* Through Saturday morning

* Periods of heavy rainfall are possible across the region in the
next couple of days. This could cause roadways to become
impassible. If canals and drainage ways become flooded, it could
also allow for water to rise high enough to enter some
structures, especially in low lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NWS Tampa........Fri Aug 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Rain with isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
southwest Florida early this morning. These will continue as they
spread north...reaching the Nature coast later in the morning.
The storms will increase to scattered to numerous coverage during
the afternoon. Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly
lightning strikes. Rainfall amounts could be 2 to 3 inches but
with isolated higher amounts possible...especially for southern
areas...and result in minor and localized street and small stream
flooding. The rain and storms will trend down as they continue
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Deep moisture continues Saturday with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Then during Sunday and Monday slightly
direr air works in from the north with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Moisture begins to returns Tuesday
with scattered to locally numerous showers and storms through
Thursday. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Rude

so its possible around here, another 2-3 inches of rain later today..drive safely folks and be alert for anything severe that might pop up..some funnel clouds were seen over on the east coast the other day,and anytime a tropical low crosses Florida we might get a few to pop up around here too..stay safe folks.

anyone have any flooding around their area's so far?..have seen any around my area.

Nam Model says Saturday could get stormy and rainy as the Low crosses the state.......

here is Harvey now but winds expected to be 125 mph when coming ashore......................................Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...5 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 95.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

LargoFL wrote:anyone have any flooding around their area's so far?..have seen any around my area.

Hi Largo and all,
No worries in Z-hills it hasn't rain but .05 in the last week. The rain is around but not hitting my bucket. Lots of angry clouds.
Have a great day
John

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:anyone have any flooding around their area's so far?..have seen any around my area.

Hi Largo and all,
No worries in Z-hills it hasn't rain but .05 in the last week. The rain is around but not hitting my bucket. Lots of angry clouds.
Have a great day
John

good morning john,you may get the rain or storms thru today as 92 is supposed to come ashore under tampa bay then head northeast to the atlantic into Saturday morning..guess I will also,good luck up there ok and have a safe day!

well right now most of the rain/storms are down around fort Meyers area.........

I'm just guessing here but...it could very well be Harvey stole all the energy and 92 wasn't able to develop..if so then we got lucky..whew cannot imagine..a Major Cat-3 or higher coming in here by me.

AUG...............Euro Has 92 sitting over your area..Sun/mon................................

and CMC brings 92/hurricane strength from the Carolina's up to new York and new England Tues..

it seems the siesta of hurricanes in the USA is over this year huh,its been quite awhile since one hit the USA

I lucked up with two separate rain events yesterday. One in the afternoon around 3 PM dropped 0.50" in about a half hour. It was a nice downpour with no lightning or wind to speak of. Then last night around 8:30 we had a an hour of heavy lightning and thunder with gusty winds. According to the radar a large storm from the north and a large storm from the southeast all came together along the coast near Cedar Key. Funny thing it was almost all lightning and very little rainfall. Ended up with 0.60" total from the two storms. Prayers for all those in the path of Harvey.

again, my prayers for those folks over in Texas,i cannot imagine the destruction etc that's heading their way, ive never experienced 125+ mph winds..most ive ever been in was 70mph and didn't like That..one bit gee,then add..3 feet of rain, my god...I hope most have boarded up and left.

LargoFL wrote:it seems the siesta of hurricanes in the USA is over this year huh,its been quite awhile since one hit the USA

Two hit last year: Hermine and Mathew

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:it seems the siesta of hurricanes in the USA is over this year huh,its been quite awhile since one hit the USA

Two hit last year: Hermine and Mathew

oh ok..i guess I was meaning Major hurricanes but Thanks WD...stay kinda alert thru Saturday as 92 heads northeast ok..probably will be just a rainmaker but any Low crossing the state needs to be watched...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Harvey, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
over central Florida continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although strong
upper-level winds could limit tropical cyclone formation, some
subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves northeastward over the western Atlantic
before it merges with a front. Regardless of development, very
heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of southern and
central Florida during the next few days. Please refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office for more information
on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

Billsfan is it ok in your area?..im wondering how swflwx is doing also over on the sw gulf coast with 92 sitting close by in the gulf there.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
820 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

FLC071-251515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0050.170825T1220Z-170825T1515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee FL-
820 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
Lee County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 1115 AM EDT

* At 818 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain and isolated
thunderstorms that will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor
drainage areas will result in minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Pine Island, and St. James
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

and from NWS Melbourne.......................FRI AUG 25 2017

.NOW...

An area of low pressure along the Florida gulf coast south of Tampa
is forecast to move slowly toward the northeast across central
Florida today and tonight. As a result...deep tropical moisture will
get pulled northward from south Florida. There will be some sunshine
this morning which will provide heating and instability. So expect
scattered showers to develop this morning mainly south of Orlando...
becoming numerous this afternoon with embedded lightning storms. The
primary threat will be locally heavy rain accumulating 2 to 3 inches
in some spots which may cause localized flooding. Conditions are
also favorable for funnel clouds.


&&

well we can see..whats going to be heading up thru Florida today whew..

yeah if it wasn't for Harvey,WE might have had a Tropical storm crossing Florida wow..

Thanks for the coffee and info Largo.
Scary days ahead for millions. The WC says they are expecting at least TS winds in Corpus Christi for a minimum of 100 hours! I cannot imagine. Prayers for all in the pathway.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks for the coffee and info Largo.
Scary days ahead for millions.  The WC says they are expecting at least TS winds in Corpus Christi for a minimum of 100 hours!   I cannot imagine.   Prayers for all in the pathway.

100 hours OMG...and I bet power outages half way across the state too whew.

well I'm keeping a good eye on 92..LOOk how the storms are firing up in the gulf.........

IF it wasn't for the outflow from Harvey..we could have been facing something tropical in the gulf

Harvey is going thru an eyewall replacement, usually when that happens the hurricane grows stronger gee

just awful

BillsfaninSoFla wrote: just awful

I was just watching the news..they are expecting devastating damage there,geez and..corpus Christi is a Major port..and there may be..a shortage of Gasoline for all of us and there are also a lot of refineries around there also....so fill up your cars folks..just in case..i did mine early this morning.

Billsfan..be extra careful down there ok..especially driving,storms look awful down there too...

92 is hardly moving and south florida could still get several days of this heavy rain gee.

NWS Miami.........1110 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Flooding: Heavy rain lead to flooding concerns, including localized
flooding of roadways, poor drainage areas, and low lying areas.
localized areas may see rain enter structures as well.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible
across all of South Florida. The primary threat from thunderstorms
will be lightning and urban flooding.

Waterspouts: There is a slight risk of waterspouts across all South
Florida waters including Lake Okeechobee.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Gulf
coast beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the weekend. Some locations may experience to 2 to 4 inches
of rain with locally heavier amounts. This may be sufficient to cause
localized flooding problems. There is a reasonable threat of flooding
of roadways, as well as low lying and poor drainage areas. All
residents and visitors are urged to continue monitoring this threat
through at least early this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather
Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

for folks with family-friends there,if you don't hear from them this may be the reason afterwards..

ok I need lunch..BBL..................................Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...11 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONSHORE...

A wind gust to 48 mph was recently reported at Corpus Christi Naval
Air Station, and a wind gust to 39 mph was recently observed near
Port Aransas.

NOAA tide gauges near Corpus Christi and Port Aransas indicate
storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 ft is already occurring.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 96.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1234 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

FLC071-251930-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0051.170825T1634Z-170825T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee FL-
1234 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Lee County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT

* At 1231 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Pine Island, and St. James City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2652 8223 2677 8214 2676 8212 2677 8211
2676 8181 2653 8179 2640 8214

$$

TBW

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Miami FL
1235 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

FLC011-251930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0066.170825T1635Z-170825T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broward FL-
1235 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
for...
Southeastern Broward County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT

* At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in localized flooding
in the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar and Pompano
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 2597 8009 2597 8034 2623 8030 2622 8006

$$

SI

folks 92 up to 20-40% and showing up on the probability chart now..stay tuned and alert...........

and...12Z GFS has another tropical wave coming across..1st week of September...........