CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG

12Z CMZ has the Oct 8th storm almost Irma's path up the state....

I guess whenever any model puts a storm into Florida we need to be extra careful huh..still time for tracks to change..

Good afternoon and TGIF. Looks like a disorganized soupy mess coming this weekend. My kind of storm with rains w/o winds as we transition to the dry season and La Nina

Forecast rainfall from 8pm this evening through 8pm Monday evening. Just a general painting of the current thinking - some areas will get more, some less

Hi everyone!

Largo-isn't WD up North of you?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone!

Largo-isn't WD up North of you?

yes that's right thanks Billsfan,had a memory burp that time lol..

Good real early Saturday morning folks!..gee did it ever POUR down rain here last evening,i wont listen to any OFFICIAL rainfall count by me..i know that was 2 inches or more,it rained so heavy and for hours it came down..so hard the rain washed over the gutters like a waterfall and for a LONG time like that too..well I really needed the rain here and mother nature said..ok i'll send you some lol...well more rain thru Monday local met is saying...hope no one is in a flood area.....well Blogs COFFEE os set to perk for when you get here..have a great day everyone!

NWS Tampa.......Sat Sep 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
morning, and will expand in coverage through the afternoon with
the greatest chances over the Nature Coast. Thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning strikes.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
Heavy rainfall on top of already saturated ground produced some
isolated flooding Friday afternoon, and additional rainfall
forecast for this weekend could cause further issues. Never drive
across flooded roads as the water may be deeper than it appears
and can stall or carry away vehicles.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor to moderate flooding continues on several areas rivers,
especially the Withlacoochee River. As the water continues to route
farther downstream, additional rises are forecast during the next
couple of days in Northern Citrus County. Residents living along
rivers or faster flowing streams should remain aware of water
levels and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding
occur. Check with your local emergency management agency for
available shelters if you are displaced due to flooding.
Elsewhere, water levels continue to recede along most of West
Central Florida`s rivers due to the recent dry weather.

well if your under those red area's it drops some serious rain amounts.................

Aug..this huge Blob of rain/storms heading towards you this early morning............

well no rain by me this early morning so far but everything is soaking wet outside as I walked my dogs,nice to see it like this,it was getting really dry here.

Morning. Flood Watch in effect here until tomorrow night. 3-6" with higher amounts expected. Steady, light rain at the moment but it looks short-lived until the good stuff arrives later.

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of northeast Florida, including the following areas,
Clay, Coastal Duval, Flagler, Inland Duval, Putnam, and St.
Johns.

* From 11 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening

* Low pressure developing over the Florida peninsula will send a
surge of tropical moisture northward into northeast Florida.
Strengthening onshore winds will focus heavy rain bands over the
coastal counties of northeast Florida and the St. Johns River
basin beginning on Saturday morning, with 3 to 6 inch rainfall
totals will be possible by Sunday evening in the Flood Watch
area, with locally higher totals possible if these rain bands
train over the same locations for several hours at a time.

* Motorists should be prepared for rapid reductions in
visibility during heavy downpours. Remember, if you encounter
a roadway or intersection with flowing water overtop of it,
your best option is to Turn Around, Don`t Drown. Flood waters
can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several
places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at
low lying spots...underpasses...and poor drainage areas. Some
streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains
and retention ponds overflow.

Good morning everyone!

Thanks for the updates.

Good luck Aug!

Is that swirly thing in the GOM anything?

Hiya Bills. The GOM swirly is just an upper level low. No tropical development is expected from it.

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0844
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST FL COAST

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 301211Z - 301811Z

SUMMARY...A STALLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND INFLOW IN ITS NORTHERN QUADRANT SHOULD LEAD TO
HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2.5" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4".

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, AND IS NEAR SANFORD AT THIS TIME. THE
REGION IS WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH, TO
THE SOUTH OF A DEPARTING WEAK JET STREAK AND EAST OF AN UPPER
LOW/TUTT CELL RETROGRADING FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -60C FORMING
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A WEAK FRONT/BAROCLINIC TROUGH BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE AND DAYTONA BEACH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2.1-2.3" EXIST HERE PER RECENT GPS VALUES. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
20-30 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, WHICH IS DRAWING IN ML CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS EXISTS
NEAR THE COAST.

THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
THOUGH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT IS POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC REINFORCING THE GRADIENT. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
SHOWED A SCATTERED SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4", AND HINTS THAT
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS MAY BE THE PEAK OF THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, RAP MASS FIELDS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AND SHOW LESS CONCENTRATION TO THE CONVECTION THAN SEEN
ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY, SO HAVE USED A SIX HOUR WINDOW. GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

ROTH

good morning Aug,it seems the low will form in the ATL off your coast somewhere there and thru the coming days will move across northern Florida to the gulf..so far anyway..good luck up there ok..hope no flooding by you

good morning Billsfan!! hope you got some good rain!

the models are all over the place on the next system around the 7th thru 10th of OCT..cant believe any of them just yet.

Locally heavy rain is expected to persist in parts of the Sunshine State, particularly north of the surface trough of Invest 99L the next few days, possibly migrating or spreading from northeast Florida to the Florida Panhandle.
The heaviest rain, over 3 inches in spots, is expected in a swath from north of Cape Canaveral to the Florida-Georgia border, including the Jacksonville metro area.

Morning Largo. No flood concerns in my immediate area. Had 16" with pre-Irma then Irma and no issue. 3-6" would temporarily flood some low lying areas in the vicinity but it drains quickly.

Sure could use some rain on the west side. Guess we'll have to wait it out. Miss seeing those awesome thunder storms and lightening.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning Largo.  No flood concerns in my immediate area.  Had 16" with pre-Irma then Irma and no issue.  3-6" would temporarily flood some low lying areas in the vicinity but it drains quickly.

ok that's good Aug,i saw one rainfall map that had 5-8 inches somewhere by Jacksonville thru monday

PuppyToes wrote:Sure could use some rain on the west side. Guess we'll have to wait it out. Miss seeing those awesome thunder storms and lightening.

good morning PT,yes that's what I got last night whew,it sure came down Hard alright.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
840 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low can be seen on satellite over the Gulf to the SW
of the state this morning, with a surface trough in place
across the center of the state. Scattered to numerous
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move over the
area through the late morning and afternoon. This low
pressure system will move away from the region early next
week as stronger high pressure builds in from the north and
filters in some drier air. Current forecast is on track and
have no updates planned. The flood watch for Lee county will
continue.

&&

lets see thru Monday how much rain we get as the ATL low crosses north Florida.

folks next weekend another stormy one,this time GFS takes it into the panhandle........

CMC now takes it thru the straights crosses the gulf into Texas............................

so models are all over the place,Euro takes it out to the ATL..cant believe any models just yet..lets see thurs/Friday what they say.

wow al morning long,bet some real Heavy rains in places too huh....

stay alert and safe if driving or going outdoors up there today......................................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1113 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...Messy Weekend along the Coast & St. Johns River Basin...

.UPDATE...

Deteriorating conditions for coastal areas and much of NE FL east
of Highway 301 as strong onshore flow develops bringing waves of
rainfall, locally heavy at times. A broad surface low was just NNE
of Cape Canaveral late this morning with a trough axis along and
north of the local extending offshore of the SE Atlantic coast. A
surge of NE flow was funneling southward down the SC and GA coasts
this morning on the north side of the surface low in response to
a strengthening low level pressure gradient between the meandering
low across central Florida, and a strong surface high pressure
wedge nosing southward across GA. Strong low level convergence
will continue over the local area as this low slowly migrates
northward, then begins to drift westward toward the Gulf through
Sunday as a parent upper level low across the east-central Gulf
retrogrades. The 12Z JAX RAOB indicated high tropical moisture
over the area spewing northward over the state between the
retrograding upper level low in the Gulf and an upper level ridge
centered north of the Bahamas. This moisture over strong low level
convergence will bring waves of waves to the local area over the
next 24-36 hrs, with the highest potential of flooding rainfall
focused along the NE FL coast inland toward the St. Johns River
basin. Else, more scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
possible.

Both non-convective and convective winds were increasing this
morning a recent report of a gust to 36 mph in a rain band across
Mayport. The strength of winds will continue to increase through
today with a wind advisory anticipated by Sunday for the coast and
potentially the St. Johns River basin due to sustained speeds of
25 mph and gusts of at least 35 mph (likely up to 40 mph along
the coast).

ok WD it looks like your area is in the rains now huh.....................................

OCT 7-10..stay alert folks...this could be...bad if it verifies........................

I just feel something is strange about THIS hurricane season,it seems Florida is in the bullseye for hurricanes and we still have OCT and November.

12Z GFS also is hinting at Oct-8th thru 10th...i'll keep watching ok.................

I sure hope not Largo. We're supposed to close on my father in law's house in the beginning of October. Fingers crossed

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:I sure hope not Largo. We're supposed to close on my father in law's house in the beginning of October.  Fingers crossed

yeah Billsfan,hopefully the models wont verify..still a week away or so..and today they have been all over the place with each new run...I really don't want to see this either.

well sprinkles starting here by me, looks like another interesting evening rain wise coming,glad I got all the outside things done early.

oh oh..now the Euro is joining in..a gulf storm crosses over into south florida....

ok so IF the models don't change Once again...about the second week in October could..get interesting storm wise...but..a long way off and I'm guessing tracks will change several times before then...fingers crossed...

yeah looks like another round of storms coming up from the south........................

well that's it from my end..post away folks.

gee Aug,alot of storms over you today(sunday)..stay safe up there ok.............

good sunday morning folks!..well that LOW up by Aug is supposed to cross northern florida into the gulf today,lets see IF it does that...well have a great day everyone!

folks stay alert 0ct 8-10th..both Euro and Cmc models bring something tropical Into Florida,so we have a lil over a week to watch this system..its good to be alert and towards the end of this coming week maybe prepare huh...still some days for these tracks to change,but its October and this time of year most anything in the gulf..comes this way....now so far GFS takes whatever it becomes..into the panhandle or big bend area..Euro so far brings it into around tampa bay up to Jacksonville area..and Cmc..well it brings a big hurricane into the middle of florida...lets see how this plays out thru this coming week..gee I'm sure hoping it doesn't verify...I just want to mention this possibility ok..its just what the models are hinting at ok.

Good morning everyone.  I hope some of y'all have been on the receiving end of the precip; I haven't seen any.   Aug looks to be cashing in a bit this morning.

High pressure builds back into the region this week with only a slight respite from the hot temps.  Instead of 90s, the forecast in the Tampa area is upper 80s.  I could certainly live with this Euro run though.  It could possibly bring a little rain toward the end of the run.

Morning. Dumped 1.56" out of my gauge at 7 AM. Looks like I'm socked in with rain for at least a few hours. Should get at least another 1-2" today at a minimum. Grocery shopping should be fun this morning splashing through the puddles.

A CoCoRaHS observer about 15 miles to my southeast reported 5.69"

sangria wrote:Good morning everyone.  I hope some of y'all have been on the receiving end of the precip; I haven't seen any.   Aug looks to be cashing in a bit this morning.

High pressure builds back into the region this week with only a slight respite from the hot temps.  Instead of 90s, the forecast in the Tampa area is upper 80s.  I could certainly live with this Euro run though.  It could possibly bring a little rain toward the end of the run.

Should start gradually cooling off in the bay area as the month wears on. My hottest temp in the 7 day is 86. May not see 90 again up here until next spring.