CLOSED 9-17-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA BLOG

Gotcha PT. I buy a jalapeno pepper sausage which is super good! I never would've even thought to buy it, but they were giving out samples and I tried it. My whole family loves it. I make it for hor douvres and serve it cheese.

What’s the brand name on that jalapeño sausage? We love spicy

local tv met just said for my area tomorrow..80% chance for thunderstorms and rain..i can surer use the rain for sure..

weather channel has continuous coverage of Nate.......they mentioned where Nate comes ashore..some places could have an 8 to 10 foot storm surge wow.

well its solid overcast here by me and soooo humid..glad I did my lawn work etc early.yeah tv met just said again..very good chances for thunderstorms tomorrow here 80% chances..bet that's that huge blob of storms coming close by here....anyone hear from WD lately?...that area just may get that storm surge and maybe some storms...and some mandatory evacuations up in the panhandle area's...and power outages may reach all the way up to Tenn wow.....and they are just mentioning a tornado warning coming in some place called gulf shores..and water spouts too are being spotted.

and another one........
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...

* Until 215 PM CDT

* At 146 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles south of Orange Beach, moving northwest at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Gulf Shores around 155 PM CDT.
Bon Secour around 205 PM CDT.
Magnolia Springs around 215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8785 3032 8802 3035 8799 3036 8797
3036 8798 3052 8782 3022 8749
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 129DEG 31KT 3020 8762

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

yeah they are saying there's a very real threat of a HUGE storm surge tonight up along the northern gulf coast along with tornado's etc..one good thing the storm is moving real fast..25mph I think they said.

PT. It is Kiolbassa sausage. Very good.

Thanks Largo.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo.

LOl you guys were making me hungry LOL

well finally,some of the rain bands are coming in here..coming down good now...

Good Sunday morning folks!..well Nate came ashore and still moving pretty fast..might be some real flooding damage too up there....well a 50% chance of rain here on the gulf coast...already coming down by me this early morning...have a great day everyone...oh a lot of power outages where Nate came in...hope Gome is ok.

hope the rain makes it to you JR.................................................

storms going up the middle of Alabama this morning.......................................

I guess gome may be without power right now..Nate made 2 landfalls.

GFS has a LOW coming into our east coast next weekend,Euro has it thru the straights..

CMC next weekend,goes into Bahama's but not Florida,could get interesting next weekend..

Morning. Gomey may be in the dark. Looks like his area per some weather stations I was looking at had wind gusts of 60-70mph. His PWS had pressure bottoming out at 984MB.

Gonna be quite warm here today. 90 degrees with a coin-flip chance for afternoon rain.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Gomey may be in the dark.  Looks like his area per some weather stations I was looking at had wind gusts of 60-70mph.  His PWS had pressure bottoming out at 984MB.

Gonna be quite warm here today.  90 degrees with a coin-flip chance for afternoon rain.

ok thanks Aug..hope he's ok...lots of folks without power up there news is saying.

might be a lot of flooding concerns up on the florida panhandle area's whew..been coming down hard there since very early this morning.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
537 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

ALC003-035-053-099-FLC033-113-081630-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.W.0016.171008T1037Z-171008T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe AL-Baldwin AL-Escambia AL-Conecuh AL-Santa Rosa FL-
Escambia FL-
537 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
South central Monroe County in south central Alabama...
Northeastern Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
Western Escambia County in south central Alabama...
Southwestern Conecuh County in south central Alabama...
Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...
Escambia County in northwestern Florida...

* Until 1130 AM CDT

* At 536 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms have
produced heavy rain, which will cause flooding. Up to six inches
of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Gonzalez, Atmore, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Goulding, Century,
Flomaton, Bagdad, Myrtle Grove, McCullough, Oriole Beach, Navarre
and Molino.

in about 7 days..east coasters stay alert next weekend to local warnings ok..

Aug..GFS has something over your area on the 16th or so this month...................

yeah if GFS verifies something comes inland east coast then moves northward up the coast of Florida...still have a week to watch the models and see what plays out..guess this may turn out to be an active storm month huh.

JMA model takes the storm thru the straights like the Euro does,still time for change....

yean might want to watch local warnings south Florida around next Friday on..

Thanks Largo. Looks like weak low pressure forms north of the Lesser Antilles in 2-3 days then moves it west per that particular GFS run.

Jax AM update. We shall see.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
955 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...High rain chances this afternoon...

.UPDATE...
TC Nate continues to progress northward quickly with center moving
through AL at this time. As a result of this system and high
pressure well to our east, deep southerly flow is over the area and
is seen in JAX sounding this morning. Very moist conditions with
PWATS of 2.19 inches observed and this is in agreement with satellite
derived value of 2.2 inches. Flow through 6 km is from about 180 deg
at 22 kt. Current visible imagery shows heating beginning over the
ern zones with our western zones in more of the cirrus outflow from
Nate. Low level cumulus is seen streaming quickly nwd over the FL
Big Bend and portions of Suwannee Valley and inland southeast
GA...with VAX vwp verifying 30-35 kt at 2000-3000 ft. Already seeing
some weak but notable development of cu here in the wrn zones and
this is where initial development of some convection is anticipated.
This convection will likely grow in intensity during the heating of
the day moving nwd quickly in the deep layer south flow...some of
which may be intense cells due to the high moisture and forecast
instability of about 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Additional showers and storms
likely to form further east, as east coastal area winds back from
south to south-southeast (likely from east coast sea breeze
development) increasing low level convergence. There is some
potential for semi-organized convective clusters in north-south
lines due to shear values approaching 25-30 kt and some very heavy
rainfall with rates of 2-3 inches per hour possible. Gusty winds in
showers and storms due to water-loading and some pockets of drier
mid level air. Convection will press offshore this evening with a
gradual decrease in rainfall through midnight. Only minor changes to
the POP forecast at this time.

ok good luck up there Aug

Hi everyone. I'm really tired of hurricane season. LOL

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone. I'm really tired of hurricane season. LOL

lol Billsfan,now we are in the part of the season where the storms come in or close to Florida..wish we get no more whew.

Jenny and WD looks like a whole line of rain coming into your area's thru this afternoon.............

You sure do have that right! But I wouldn’t mind a good shower. We keep getting missed

yeah now CMC comes thru the straights..into the gulf,then back towards our gulf coast....

we'll just have to wait out and see how this plays out..too soon yet

Saw the 12z CMC run but it is suspect to me. Brings a system west into the central GOM, slams on the breaks, then moves due east. This time of year there should be a more poleward movement (some sort of northerly direction) with a storm in that particular area.

PuppyToes wrote:You sure do have that right! But I wouldn’t mind a good shower. We keep getting missed

Same here, PT. 4 straight days of 50-90% POPs.....and nothin'. Last chance is off the coast, and not looking promising...

well I just got that one heavy shower this morning,it seemed to just hug the inland coast as it moved northward..guess I got lucky finally lol.

well I guess we'll see if it verifies..still a week or more away..................................From the Miami NWS Discussion...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: A mid to upper level low
should approach the region from the east late Wednesday and
Thursday. Models diverge as to whether the low reaches as far west
as South Florida by late week, or whether it stays east of
Florida. A tropical wave could also be approaching from the east
late in the week. There is quite a bit of uncertainty among the
various global models in atmospheric moisture levels for Friday
into next weekend based on the track and development of the upper
low and the wave. The ECMWF continues to bring a weak trough over
the area while the GFS doesn`t quite bring the higher moisture
through South Florida. For now, I have opted to keep PoPs below 50
percent for Friday and Saturday, but this will need to be
revisited in later forecasts as forecast confidence increases.

from nws Melbourne discussion.....................................................Wednesday-Sunday (Previous modified)...Mid level ridge will
retrograde toward LA into late week with an upper low/TUTT moving
westward and slowing just east of the state. Favor the ECM solution
which shows an inverted surface trough approaching the southern half
of Florida by Friday morning, then continuing westward across the
state and into the SE GOMEX this weekend. Mid level moisture will
remain rather limited through Thursday, keeping low shower chances
(20-30) in place. From Friday into the upcoming weekend, increasing
moisture/convergence will advect onshore, with higher prospects for
showers and storms. Have raised POPs toward the much higher ECM
numbers, though for now, we remain about 10-20 percent below them.
Highs mid 80s coast and upper 80s-90F inland Lows in the 70s.

&&

well Billsfan..it might be raining once again by you..possibly..around Friday thru the weekend if what the NWS's think verifies....good luck ok.

well nothing going on by me..other than its VERY HUMID lol...guess i'll say good night folks..stay safe out there....oh one more thing..if you have family-friends in south Carolina..seems to be quite a bit of Tornado warnings from Nate up there today. hope everyone there is safe and ok.

Good Monday Morning folks!......well last night I got another heavy sprinkle rain,not enough to even wet the street..but every drop counts....local met says a slight chance for a shower later today here..well have a great day everyone!

NWS Tampa.........Mon Oct 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected in the late morning and afternoon. Thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing strong gusty winds...locally
heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning strikes.

from NWS Melbourne's discussion...mon 10/9.....................Fri-Mon...00z GFS indicates the mid level low and associated weak
low pressure area will reach the FL peninsula over the weekend with
ECMWF still showing a more suppressed mid level low reaching S FL
under a stronger mid level ridge across the southeast states. In
both scenarios...increasing moisture levels will raise POPs to at
least the scattered range by Sat-Sun. An approaching trough across
the southeast states Monday into Tuesday is expected to gradually
move this system back east of the state just beyond the 7 day
forecast period. Forecast temps will remain above normal with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 80s coast and upper 80s for the interior.
Lows mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

&&