Heat, Severe Storms, Haboobs, Typhoons, and the GFS. Talking about a mixed bag.

Thank you for tuning in to the Tuesday edition of Wake up with E.

HEAT

It is July with out a doubt, as searing heat continues across the southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley today. Record temperatures are expected across the Plains, where July sunshine will boost the mercury into the triple-digits. From Texas to the Dakotas, temperatures will warm into the upper 90s to the 100s



SEVERE STORMS

Severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain, wind, and hail will spread from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas today as several atmospheric ingredients are coming together. The main areas of thunderstorms will develop along a surface cold front bringing heavy rainfall, large hail and gusty winds. Localized rainfall amounts up to two inches are possible from Indianapolis to Raleigh, N.C. Numerous thunderstorms will ignite in the warm and moist air this afternoon and evening.



Here are some of the cities that you might hear warnings issued for this afternoon and will most likely be impacted by severe weather. Louisville, Ky., Cincinnati, Ohio, Charleston, W.V., Washington D.C., Richmond, Va., Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C.



Forecast from the SPC




...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS
A BELT OF STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EWD
WITH ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT BRUSHING THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 25/00Z AND EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES NWWD INTO SD. THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SD.


...MID-ATLANTIC STATES WWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SVR WX
DAY AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH MOD-STG INSTABILITY AND
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
STG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 24/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOST
PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES SE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...EXPECT SVR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS REGION. SVR TSTMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 KTS
ALONG THE MID-ATL COAST TO 45-50 KT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE PERPENDICULAR
TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT WILL BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER W/NW...SCT SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
STG/SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

Although gusty winds will be the biggest threat today, the strongest storms will also be capable of producing hail. It is not completely out of the question that an isolated tornado could briefly develop as well.

HABOOBS

With the monsoonal season in full affect in the Desert Southwest comes the threat of Haboobs. Such an occurrence happened as a line of strong thunderstorms that moved from east to west across the Phoenix area over the weekend. The strong winds associated with those storms, in combination with the desert conditions, was likely the cause of the haboob.








TYPHOONS


Powerful Typhoon Vicente made landfall Tuesday in Guangdong, China, just to the southwest of Hong Kong. Vicente strengthened rapidly before moving inland near Macau and Pinghsa, China from over the South China Sea with maximum sustained winds equivalent to a Category 3 to 4 hurricane. The highest winds in Hong Kong were 83 mph late Monday. Major disruptions to travel, including flights, occurred.
Macau was in the eye wall and in the strongest part of the typhoon early Tuesday, which is the northeastern quadrant of the storm. Portions of Guangdong, China, had winds of over 100-mph and will receive up to 10-20 inches of rainfall, threatening severe flooding and mudslides.



The GFS

For the first time, in a long time there is activity showing up in the models for potential development in the Atlantic. I know it is a long ways away, but it is something to watch... I made a short animation of the 06Z run.



Peace

Should have mentioned that the NHC has has got out the yellow crayons once again and circled an area in the open Atlantic. This area is absolutely no threat to any land mass and will only affect shipping interest as a small gale.

Thanks for the new blog e!! Those pics of the Haboob were amazing.....Can't believe that guy was playing golf.........I wondered if a wave was gonna be able to slip underneath the SAL and head toward the Carib.....will be interesting to see how the GFS plays this out, over the coming days....

Good Morning E. Thanks for your in depth explanation.

We already have Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, and Ohio.....this could be a long day....

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL/NRN AND CENTRAL IND/FAR SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 241135Z - 241230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER NRN/CENTRAL IND.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST SEWD ACROSS NERN IL INCLUDING
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WIND THREAT TO
PROGRESS FARTHER E/SE OF WW 506 BETWEEN 13-15Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 1115Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAST MOVING
/SEWD AT 45-50 KT/ LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN IL /NRN
WILL COUNTY/ INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...
REACHING NWRN IND BY 12Z AND IT MAY AFFECT A SMALL PART OF FAR SWRN
LOWER MI AS WELL.

MEANWHILE...ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS ERN IND INTO WRN OH AND ATTENDANT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT THE ONSET OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING/DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THIS FACTOR...NWRN IND
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IND APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE FAST MOVING LINE OF
STORMS...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA.

..PETERS.. 07/24/2012

Thanks E. I have to agree with San, if I saw that coming I think I would get off the golf course.

Nice widescreen image of the waves coming off of Africa....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/wavetrak/windnatl/movies/windnatl5.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 800 AM UNTIL NOON EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF
LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MUNCIE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 506...

DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT RESULTING
IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31045.

Hook with rotation starting to develop near Warsaw

Warsaw, Indiana

The 10:43 time is EDT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF DAYTON OHIO TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI
OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 507...

DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
IND HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE LIMITING
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...BUT FAST STORM MOTION
AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WARRANT CONCERN FOR SEVERE WINDS
AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE OH RIVER.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31045.


...HART

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN OHIO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA TO 65 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF LONDON KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 508...

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OH...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN KY/WESTERN WV THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
KY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33040.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
MUCH OF VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 508...WW 509...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN PA...SPREADING ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOT/MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30035.


...HART

We have an invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207241720
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012072418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012072406, , BEST, 0, 350N, 560W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012072412, , BEST, 0, 355N, 555W, 35, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012072418, , BEST, 0, 360N, 550W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 40, 40, 1013, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

WOW

SAL captured by NASA Satellite



http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78638&src=nha

[quote="emcf30"]WOW


Very Cool e !! Where was that pic taken?

[quote="sangria"]

emcf30 wrote:WOW


Very Cool e !! Where was that pic taken?

Somewhere in South America, I think

[img]

Current Discussions



ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NE WY/SE MT...NW INTO N-CNTRL SD...SW INTO
S-CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242242Z - 250015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT INCREASING ACROSS NW INTO
N-CNTRL SD. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS STORMS OVER
NWRN SD TRACK E-NEWD AND INTENSIFY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. WEAK FORCING ACROSS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM AN IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NE WY INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS WAS PROVIDING ADEQUATE LIFT TO OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING
ACROSS NWRN SD. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35-45 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS STORMS CONTINUE E-NEWD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT IS APPARENT
THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL AT PRESENT
DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CAP/WARM MIDLEVELS. HOWEVER MODIFIED 18Z RAP
RAOB USING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NW INTO N-CNTRL SD SUGGEST STRONGER
MLCAPE VALUES/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242246Z - 250015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT A
SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS COLUMBIA/SUMTER AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE REMAINING
MODERATELY LARGE...AND CAPPING WEAK...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. SOME
CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA AND
SUMTER AREAS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DEEPLY MIXED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS. IF COLD POOLS ARE ABLE TO MERGE...LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN THEREAFTER...BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING/STABILIZATION MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR/MEAD.. 07/24/2012