Late January through February outlook

000
FXUS62 KTBW 280750
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog and low clouds will continue to expand in coverage this
morning through daybreak before gradually diminishing by late
morning. After a couple of days of widespread cloud cover along with
showers and a few thunderstorms, the area will clear out today as
high pressure begins to settle over the region, albeit briefly. With
more sunshine expected today, temps should reach the upper 70s and
lower 80s during the afternoon hours. A decaying frontal boundary
approaches the area Friday bringing a very slight chance for a few
showers across the northern portions of the forecast area but most
locations should remain dry.

For the weekend, the area looks to remain dry with temps well above
normal with afternoon highs in the 80s expected. Next weather
feature nears the area Monday as models continue to show a cold
front eventually pushing through the area bringing much cooler and
drier air into the area. There remains some differences in regards to
rainfall timing and when the cooler air actually arrives but
nevertheless it appears that a pattern change could be in the works
for a few days at least. This would allow for some cooler, drier days
for next week which would certainly be welcome after the very warm
February. After all it is still winter...

Good Thursday Morning Folks!! well I got some rain here with ONE clap of thunder LOL it was all very light rain, but every drop counts huh...NWS is saying a cool down might be coming next week sometime..still a lil uncertainty on timing etc..well have a great day everyone!!

Total precip this past week

StPeteFLwx wrote:Total precip this past week

Thanks for this St Pete, we needed this rain badly

000
FXUS62 KTBW 010718
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Subtle shortwave to move over the Deep South today with weak
frontal boundary staying well north of the local area and slight
to chance shower PoPs over the N Nature Coast today. Elsewhere,
W Atl high pressure to remain stretched over the FL Peninsula
while zonal flow sets up aloft through the weekend for warm
and dry conditions.

Early next week, longwave trough from the Great Lakes into
the Deep South to push cold front through the FL Peninsula
with a chance of showers ahead of and along the front Monday.
WNW flow aloft to allow cool and dry surface high pressure
area to filter into the region for mainly pleasant and benign
conditions Tue-Thu.

&&

Good Friday Morning Folks and a Big TGIF!!!!...a warm day ahead for us today, but it seems Monday our Floridan Winter like weather returns, and for those who like cold weather..good luck ok,,well have a wonderful day everyone..

Hi Largo and all! Indeed another warm day. I hope “winter” makes a few more appearances this year!

Looks like a stormy day in the Panhandle. It’s time for them to share the rain!

Had a big line of quick moving storms blow through on my ride home. It was quite breezy coming down the home stretch! Brief blinding rain for short spurts, nothing, brief blinding rains again. Only .10 in the gauge at home with some light debris here/there.

Per bills post and the panhandle, looks like they get in on some "fun" Sunday/Sunday night.

Hi Aug... hope you’re well.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi Largo and all!   Indeed another warm day.  I hope “winter” makes a few more appearances this year!

yeah its been really warm here too..the cool down for a few days will be a big help...enjoy billsfan!!

StAugustineFL wrote:Had a big line of quick moving storms blow through on my ride home.  It was quite breezy coming down the home stretch!  Brief blinding rain for short spurts, nothing, brief blinding rains again.  Only .10 in the gauge at home with some light debris here/there.

Per bills post and the panhandle, looks like they get in on some "fun" Sunday/Sunday night.

hiya Aug..yes the panhandle area's have been getting quite alot of rain up there,might be some river flooding if this keeps up.

NWS TAMPA...Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
A weak shortwave will continue to move through the
southeastern CONUS today, with a few showers possible over
the Nature Coast. Otherwise, weak surface ridging centered
over the Atlantic will continue to extend across the
Florida Peninsula, with warm and stable conditions
persisting. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s inland
both today and Sunday, and in the upper 70s and low 80s
along the coast. With moist dew points and clear skies,
some patchy radiation fog has developed early this morning,
and is expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Patchy
ground fog will be possible again late tonight through
Sunday morning, but increased cloud cover could limit the
fog threat overall.

Good Saturday Morning Folks!! another warm day ahead here..i have alot to do outside today, glad it wont be stormy lol...have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning. I had plans to go kayaking today as there was only a 30-40% chance of storms after 1pm today. Now it's been upped to 80% so we shall see. Looking at latest HRRR guidance seems most will be along the I-10 corridor to my north. It'll be one of those hour-by-hour situations while monitoring radar trends.

Static loop from the Tally area at 8 AM ET / 7 AM CT

Got the kayak ride in as the rain held off until after 3pm. It was a nice day. Waters were glassy, skies were mostly cloudy. Tide was perfect since we caught it in-between. No extra effort required paddling away from or back to the launch point.

StAugustineFL wrote:Got the kayak ride in as the rain held off until after 3pm.  It was a nice day.  Waters were glassy, skies were mostly cloudy.  Tide was perfect since we caught it in-between.  No extra effort required paddling away from or back to the launch point.

oh good, real glad you were able to do it Aug!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
244 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues over the region today as a
subtle short wave trough drops over the Deep South tonight.
At the surface, weak W Atlantic high pressure remains over
the region as well. Primary concern will be the extent of
dense fog over the area this morning, currently the cirrus
clouds moving overhead limiting radiational effect to over
N and C zones while cloud free Suncoast has several obs at
a 1/4 mile or less. Will continue to monitor extent of fog
through sunrise before it mixes out and burns off mid
morning. Otherwise another very warm and humid afternoon
expected today.

The Deep South cold front will sag into the Nature Coast tonight
to introduce increased PoPs overnight. Most instability to lift
out of the area but will mention a slight chance of a few
thunderstorms is possible.

Broad upper troughing sets up from the Great Lakes into the
Southeast U.S. Monday/Tue with cold front slowly sinking into
the FL Peninsula with highest POPS northern areas tapering
down to slight chance southern zones.

Mid week NW flow aloft to filter cool, dry, and fairly strong
high pressure into the region for below normal temps later
Tuesday through Thursday.

Weak ridging over the region to end the week and into next
weekend with moderating conditions.

&&

Good Sunday Morning Folks!!,,looks like another warm day ahead then tomorrow our weather changes begin..might be an interesting week ahead,just hope no freezes up in northern Florida with this coming front..well have a great day everyone!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Hudson Bay upper low and troughing through the Great Lakes
into the Deep South pushing broken pre frontal line of
convection through the Nature Coast early this morning. Upper
vort max expected to move east of the area later this morning
while front becomes parallel to upper flow allowing it to
slow across the FL Peninsula through the day then stall
across the FL Straits tonight. Enough low level moisture and
modest lift around to keep chance shower POPs and cloud
cover over the area today.

Next in series of vort maxes to move through the bottom of upper
trough Tuesday for another day of clouds and rain chances while
surface Plains region high pressure begins to filter cool temps
into the region.

By Wednesday, upper trough axis to move into the W Atlantic with
NW flow aloft to push the cold, dry, and strong high pressure
into the region for well below average temps Wed through Thursday.

To end the week and into next weekend, weak upper ridging
builds over the area from the N Carib, while W Atlantic high
pressure produces slightly warmer and moderating conditions.

&&

wow a Booming Good Monday Morning folks!..lightning thunder and a heavy down pouring rain here a lil while ago, picked up 0.58 rain in just a few minutes wow...well our winter returns for a few days here..enjoy.....i just hope these nasty lil green whatever they are that are hanging down from the trees get washed away..gee...well have a great day and be aware of the lightning..stay safe.

LargoFL wrote:wow a Booming Good Monday Morning folks!..lightning thunder and a heavy down pouring rain here a lil while ago, picked up 0.58 rain in just a few minutes wow...well our winter returns for a few days here..enjoy.....i just hope these nasty lil green whatever they are that are hanging down from the trees get washed away..gee...well have a great day and be aware of the lightning..stay safe.

Great morning wake up call. 1.5" in the bucket.

??? nasty lil green whatever ???

Silkworms? Saturday I saw an oak tree with about 100 of them hanging down, looked like a Christmas decoration

That's what I am thinking, StPete. Some kind of oak caterpillar. I've seen them before, but not in a very long time. Some of those can sting pretty bad.

StPeteFLwx wrote:Silkworms? Saturday I saw an oak tree with about 100 of them hanging down, looked like a Christmas decoration

yeah gee you go walking and their web strings whatever it is ..all over you ugh..i'll be very happy when they are gone lol

Terrible tornado outbreak yesterday

...and here comes the next one. Western US really blows up on Wednesday

StPeteFLwx wrote:Terrible tornado outbreak yesterday

OMG man we sure lucked out down here huh.

StPeteFLwx wrote:Terrible tornado outbreak yesterday

OMG man we sure lucked out down here huh.

didnt we used to have a poster who lives somewhere around Pensacola? well I hope they are ok.

Hi everyone. Are those caterpillars eating tree leaves? Some can defoliate a tree in a few days.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Hi everyone.  Are those caterpillars eating tree leaves?   Some can defoliate a tree in a few days.  

Hi Billsfan, that i dont know..but i hope they are gone quickly lol ugh.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
323 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)...
As a shortwave trough swings east through Florida this
morning, a secondary cold front will push southeast through
the area, with scattered showers expected along and ahead
of the front. A strong area of surface high pressure will
fill in behind the front, along with a much cooler and drier
airmass. Under cloudy skies and breezy north winds,
temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s from around
Interstate 4 north, and upper 60s to mid 70s to the south.

Cold air advection will allow temperatures to drop quickly
overnight, and a freeze watch is in effect for Levy County
tonight, while morning lows will run in the 30s and 40s
farther south. The cold air advection will continue on
Wednesday under clear skies, with highs only topping out
from around 60 over the Nature to coast, to upper 60s over
southwest Florida.

gee panhandle and north Florida again this morning??..........................

Good Early Tuesday morning folks!!..a cool 60 outside here but no rain yet,,looks like tonight starts the real cold temps..with a Freeze watch for Levy county..good luck WD.....looks like i'll hold off planting things till april maybe..i never trust march lol...well have a great day everyone!!

Morning All,
Had .42 in the bucket yesterday. I agree was some great lightning and thunder. Looks like we could get down to maybe 32 on Wednesday night here in z-hills. I agree Largo hold of on the planting you just never know.
Have a great day all
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Had .42 in the bucket yesterday. I agree was some great lightning and thunder. Looks like we could get down to maybe 32 on Wednesday night here in z-hills. I agree Largo hold of on the planting you just never know.
Have a great day all
John Z-hills

Hiya john, yes winter isnt done with us just yet,thanks,,have a great day also!!

well light rain here and temps dropping now..ole man Winter is waving at us!!.....

still light rain by me here and the whole rain system seems to be traveling I-4 to Melbourne huh..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
755 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Secondary front is pushing through the area this morning,
with some showers moving through from north to south through
the day and finally clearing the southern areas this
evening. Adjusted highs down a degree or two across the
north for today, but will not change the range for the
zones. Current forecast is on track otherwise.

&&

Good afternoon. Chilly day with temps in the 50's. Might be close to freezing tonight here. I will burn a log or two on the fire tonight then again tomorrow night. Looking forward to Friday when temps get back to the mid 70's.

Had about a half hour of heavy rain at work. About five miles north of my house. Must’ve been high winds at my hubby’s shop as he said the screen on their fence was blown off.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Had about a half hour of heavy rain at work. About five miles north of my house.  Must’ve been high winds at my hubby’s shop as he said the screen on their fence was blown off.

wow, yes this was a strong front for sure.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
241 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today - Thursday)...
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a
broad upper level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, strong high pressure over the southern
plains and lower Mississippi River Valley is pushing
southeast towards Florida, helping to usher in a much cooler
and drier air mass under breezy north winds. After a brief
freeze over the Nature Coast this morning, the breezy north
winds will keep temperatures cool today even under sunny
skies, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

The surface ridge will shift east into the Atlantic tonight
and Thursday, allowing winds to subside and turn to
easterly. With light winds and clear skies, strong
radiational cooling will setup tonight, with another freeze
expected over Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties, although
isolated spots could see brief freezes elsewhere. After
sunrise, the east winds and sunny skies will allow
temperatures to moderate quickly, with highs in the upper
60s and 70s.

Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!...brrr a cold 47 degree's with a light wind outside,,might drop down some more as dawn approaches..later today im going to cover some of my tropical plants.. tonight might get to or close to freezing in some places..well have a great day and stay warm everyone!!