Late January through February outlook

oh my local news is saying there May be some area's of frost over night into tomorrow morning..

LargoFL wrote:Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!...brrr a cold 47 degree's with a light wind outside,,might drop down some more as dawn approaches..later today im going to cover some of my tropical plants.. tonight might get to or close to freezing in some places..well have a great day and stay warm everyone!!

Morning All,
Largo your reading my mind. I also will cover the plants tonight. They are calling for 35 with frost. Had .22 in the bucket yesterday.
Well all is good here, Have a great day!!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Good Wednesday Morning Folks!!...brrr a cold 47 degree's with a light wind outside,,might drop down some more as dawn approaches..later today im going to cover some of my tropical plants.. tonight might get to or close to freezing in some places..well have a great day and stay warm everyone!!

Morning All,
Largo your reading my mind. I also will cover the plants tonight. They are calling for 35 with frost. Had .22 in the bucket yesterday.
Well all is good here, Have a great day!!!
John Z-hills

yeah john, covering up the tender plants is a must for tonight, though im hoping this cold snap kills off these nasty silkworms lol..have a great day also

IF we can see this verify.freeze warnings dark color-light blue freeze watch....cold night ahead..

LargoFL wrote:IF we can see this verify.freeze warnings dark color-light blue freeze watch....cold night ahead..

Well Largo, they missed on last nights freeze warning and wind chill warning for Levy County. Lowest temp I saw was 34 and there was no wind for a wind chill. With that said, I don't think we will see a freeze tonight here either, but there will be some frost. Most of the native vegetation that has already leafed out will be fine. The more tropical stuff might get a little burnt, but doubt it will do much damage. Luckily, the watermelon farmers were smart and haven't planted yet. With the warm February I am sure they were tempted too, but most have learned the hard way many times about a March freeze. Young watermelon plants in open fields are highly susceptible to frost damage.

waterdipper wrote:

LargoFL wrote:IF we can see this verify.freeze warnings dark color-light blue freeze watch....cold night ahead..

Well Largo, they missed on last nights freeze warning and wind chill warning for Levy County. Lowest temp I saw was 34 and there was no wind for a wind chill. With that said, I don't think we will see a freeze tonight here either, but there will be some frost. Most of the native vegetation that has already leafed out will be fine. The more tropical stuff might get a little burnt, but doubt it will do much damage. Luckily, the watermelon farmers were smart and haven't planted yet. With the warm February I am sure they were tempted too, but most have learned the hard way many times about a March freeze. Young watermelon plants in open fields are highly susceptible to frost damage.

Hiya WD yes my local weather guy said things had moderated somewhat and the severe cold would'nt happen so far southward..I just walked my dogs and with no wind i could feel..it isnt all that cold outside by me yet..still a few hour till dawn where it always cools a lil..we'll see but alot of folks lucked out last night.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
400 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)...
The cool spell will be coming to an end today as the mid/upper
level trough along the eastern seaboard moves out into the
Atlantic Ocean with a more zonal flow setting up across Florida.
Meanwhile at the surface high pressure over the southeast states
also drifts east out into the Atlantic Ocean, but will continue to
ridge west southwest across the Florida peninsula helping to
establish a more east to southeast flow. So after a rather cool
start this morning we`ll see plenty of sunshine with temperatures
rebounding back closer to normal this afternoon, mostly in the
70s. The west coast sea breeze will develop during the afternoon
from around Venice northward and this may keep the beaches a
little cooler as water temperatures have fallen into the middle
and upper 60s. For tonight and Friday mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies are expected with lows tonight near normal in the mid
40s north to middle and upper 50s near the coast from around Tampa
Bay southward followed by a quick warmup Friday with readings back
into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Once again the west coast sea
breeze is expected to develop in the afternoon so the beaches
may only reach the lower 70s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday night-Wednesday)...
During the weekend: An upper trough over the central and southern
plains swings across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada - with nearly zonal flow across the Gulf of
Mexico and Florida. At the surface a frontal boundary settles
along the northern Gulf coast eastward to the GA/SC coastal
waters late in the weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic Ocean
near latitude 30 north extends across FL and over the Gulf of
Mexico.

For early to midweek: An upper ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula
builds north to the western Gulf coastal states then slides east,
stretching from Cuba to the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters. The
frontal boundary meanders along the Gulf coast and northern FL,
but weakens with time as high pressure continues across FL and
the Gulf of Mexico.

Prevailing southeasterly to southerly lower level flow will
provide increasing moisture although remaining limited. However,
with the frontal boundary moving into the vicinity this will
support a slight chance of showers for Sun-Mon. Temperatures run
well above normal with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

&&

Good Thursday Morning Folks!! well its a cool 44 degree's here by me and with no wind hardly it sure doesnt feel really cold here..but im guessing some in northern FLA have some freezes and frost etc..the warm up begins today and winter takes a break here for awhile but myself i never trust march so i wont say winter is finished LOL....have a wonderful day everyone!!

well the warming sun has created a beautiful warm day for us around here!!...enjoy

shoo bird, get off the webcam.  Trying to check the weather

That webcam reminds me of one sangria used to post up in the New Port Richey area.  It was well elevated with wasps flying in/out as if some sort of insect airport.  I wonder if wasps have some sort of air traffic control at the hive.........."you're clear to land.  You're clear for take-off"

StPeteFLwx wrote:shoo bird, get off the webcam.  Trying to check the weather

LOL cool pic there st Pete!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
400 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today-Saturday)...
A more zonal mid/upper level flow will set up across Florida while
at the surface high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean
continues to ridge west-southwest across the Florida peninsula.
This will keep the east to southeast flow in place with the sea
breeze developing near the coast each afternoon. For today we`ll
see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with temperatures climbing
back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The west coast sea breeze
should keep the beaches a little cooler as water temperatures are
still in the middle and upper 60s. For tonight mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies will continue with light easterly winds. Lows
tonight will range from the lower 50s Nature Coast to the lower
60s near the coast from around Tampa Bay southward. On Saturday
some moisture will move in from the southeast allowing for more
clouds and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze
could pop a few light showers/sprinkles over inland areas during
the afternoon. Temperatures will warm up into the lower to middle
80s away from the immediate coast where the west coast sea breeze
should keep readings in the 70s.

Good Friday Morning folks and TGIF!!!!!...well a warm dry day ahead for most of us and a nice day ahead and so far looks to be a great weekend ahead yesss!!...enjoy...have a great day everyone

Good Luck down there later today with the rain chances Billsfan.............

St. Pete Grand Prix is this weekend

We got 10 minutes of rain. Yay I have a feeling it may be a hot, dry Spring. Hope I’m wrong. Time change this weekend. uggghhh I have to be up 5am for new job. And I’m not a morning person. Going to be a hot, cranky mess. Lol. I’ll do my best.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:We got 10 minutes of rain.  Yay  I have a feeling it may be a hot, dry Spring. Hope I’m wrong. Time change this weekend. uggghhh   I have to be up 5am for new job. And I’m not a morning person. Going to be a hot, cranky mess. Lol. I’ll do my best.

well glad you did get a quick rain shower there..lol on getting up early but over time you'll get used to it..good luck on the new job!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
327 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level ridging from the Yucatan Peninsula northward to the
Great Lakes early this morning slowly flattens as a deep low in
the central plains tracks across the Great Lakes and into
southeast Ontario by late Sun. The deep low drags a cold front
across the eastern states - stretching down the eastern seaboard
and along the northern and western Gulf coasts as the weekend
wraps up. Atlantic high pressure reaches across FL and over the
Gulf of Mexico.

The surface ridge axis across the area provides east and southeast
flow through the weekend...but with onshore flow in the afternoons
along the coast. Moisture over the area remains modest...with model
PWAT values in the 1 to occasionaly 1.4 inch range. The higher
amounts are expected to track through today with some afternoon
showers inland and along the southeast coast...otherwise a dry
forecast. Later tonight into Sun morning light to calm winds will
allow patchy fog to form over land areas. Temperatures will be
above normal...with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Good Saturday morning folks!! yeah St Pete..good luck with the Races this weekend!!,,looks like a Nice weekend for it too..sunny and warm and almost no chances for rain..man the traffic sure is going to be real heavy around here too..well enjoy..have a great day everyone!!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:We got 10 minutes of rain.  Yay  I have a feeling it may be a hot, dry Spring. Hope I’m wrong. Time change this weekend. uggghhh   I have to be up 5am for new job. And I’m not a morning person. Going to be a hot, cranky mess. Lol. I’ll do my best.

Morning all.  I can definitely relate to this.  I too am up at 5 for my job which is tough at times without the time change.  Getting up at "4" with the spring-forward is going to be rough!  I do have some scheduling flexibility so suppose I can sleep in until 6 but then I'll have to battle the traffic.  Either way it's going to suck for a few days, lol.

Warm, dry weekend, on tap.  Forecast here today is 82 which is about perfect to me.  Up to 87 tomorrow though.

If the GFS is right, looks Florida may get into a somewhat unsettled pattern beginning around next weekend.  We shall see if that holds over the coming days.

Hiya Aug..yes next weekend may be a bit wet..we'll see how this plays out..for the coming week it looks warm and kinda dry

NWS Miami...324 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ATLANTIC WATERS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all
Atlantic beaches.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible with showers over the
Atlantic waters.

Visibility: Patchy fog could develop tonight over portions of
Southwest Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Rip currents: an elevated risk will continue for the Atlantic beaches
through Sunday before subsiding. The rip current threat will then
increase again late in the week for the Atlantic beaches.

Marine: deteriorating conditions are expected on Wednesday into
Friday with increasing winds and building waves. A Small Craft
Advisory may be necessary for some portion of this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Good Sunday Morning folks!!..Ok fess up...who din not reset their clocks last night an hour ahead before they went to sleep LOL....well i have to say i did..but for me..my dogs are still running on the old time and they always get me up before dawn grrrr lol...well a nice day ahead and St Pete...."Driver's Start your Engines"...its Grand Prix Race Day!!!...have a wonderful day everyone

Morning. Dang Largo - up and at it early I see with the time change, lol. I am struggling. Sitting here in the dark at 7:20. No likey.

I set my clocks ahead after dinner yesterday. I should have taken my own advice and set the clocks ahead Friday evening to give my body the weekend to adjust before headed to work tomorrow. Oh well, it is what it is.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Dang Largo - up and at it early I see with the time change, lol.  I am struggling.  Sitting here in the dark at 7:20.  No likey.  

I set my clocks ahead after dinner yesterday.  I should have taken my own advice and set the clocks ahead Friday evening to give my body the weekend to adjust before headed to work tomorrow.  Oh well, it is what it is.

oh yeah, it sure takes some time to readjust..i see 3 Florida congressmen are proposing a bill that would make daylight savings time permanent..i surely agree

Oh it takes me a week or to adjust. Just leave it alone. I like like in morning. Darker at night. Especially with the heat of summer.

Good Monday Morning folks!! kinda misty here by me outside..might be some fog trying to form but not cold out..mid to high 60's here i think..going up into the 80's....I hope its nice where you live too...have a wonderful day everyone!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
344 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.DISCUSSION... A deep low across southern Quebec this morning exits
to the Atlantic by Tue night while mid level ridging extending
north from the Yucatan peninsula rotates - from the central plains
to the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front stretches south from
the deep low then turns westward along the northern Gulf coast
today - settling south tonight and Tue and dissipating across
central FL.

Modest moisture continues through Tue with model PWAT values of 1.0
to 1.4 inches today and tonight then increasing slightly into the
1.3 to 1.5 inch range Tue. These amounts along with some light
flow will result in patchy fog and low clouds until shortly after
sunrise today. Currently the fog is only locally dense with
visibilities bouncing around and have issued a statement for the
Nature Coast and the northern Tampa Bay area. This may be
expanded in area or upgraded to an advisory during the next
couple of hours. Similiar conditions are expected early Tue
morning. The upper ridging will tend to inhibit convection but
daytime heating could support a few showers this afternoon mainly
inland. The front moving in Tue...with some higher moisture...will
result in more coverage of isolated showers in the afternoon.
Temperatures continue above normal with 60s for the lows and 80s
for the highs.

For Wed through Fri: The Yucatan-Great Lakes mid level ridge
shifts east and out over the Atlantic by Fri as a broad low/trough
forms up over the nation/s midsection. Surface high pressure near
the lower Great Lakes tracks across the Mid-Atlantic states to
the Atlantic while sprawling south over FL and much of the Gulf of
Mexico. Deep layer ridging dominates with a stable and warm air
mass. The forecast will be rain free with temperatures above
normal.

During the weekend: The broad low/trough shifts over the eastern
U.S. with an associated cold front moving into northern FL then
stalling in central FL Sun. the front will bring increasing rain
chances...with a few thunderstorms possible...and temperatures
decreasing down to near normal.

&&

well it looks like a cold front here again this weekend..maybe.

Hopefully getting back to normal here. It's been quite busy since making our project milestone last month. Many issues to resolve, but we're moving forward.

I was able to make it down to Ft Myers for 2 games last week. That was a good break, but now I might be catching something. Those dang northerners probably brought a bug down with them.

Hope the new job goes well, BillsFan.

For daylight savings, I just had to change my alarm and coffee maker. No change in the body clock. Back to strolling into work around 8:30 again.

February Climate Summary from the Florida Climate Center:
FCC February 2019 Summary

It was hot!  Panhandle from Pensacola to Jax broke records. Gainesville was 10.6° above normal. Key West broke or tied it's highest daily minimum temperature 10 times.

Rainfall was generally below normal.

StPeteFLwx wrote:February Climate Summary from the Florida Climate Center:
FCC February 2019 Summary

It was hot!  Panhandle from Pensacola to Jax broke records. Gainesville was 10.6° above normal. Key West broke or tied it's highest daily minimum temperature 10 times.

Rainfall was generally below normal.

Yes its sure warmer than usual, there might be a change coming this weekend.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
409 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A weakening cold front will be moving into the Nature Coast
this morning and quickly get pushed south as high pressure
builds in behind it. This front will not be very noticeable
except for a slight decrease in dewpoints along and north of
I-4. Across the Nature Coast we will also see around 3-5
degrees knocked off our high and low temps for today and
tonight, respectively. Through the day, surface high
pressure will slide east towards the Mid- Atlantic coast
providing us with a tightening SSW to NNE pressure gradient.
The resultant winds out of the north, and eventually east,
should help to kick out the sea fog that has been an issue
for the last 24 hours.

By the middle of the week, a shortwave lifting out of the
southwest will create a deep closed low in the center of the
CONUS. This will result in a higher amplitude downstream
mid-level ridge along with low- level ridging off to our
northeast. With this large scale pattern and flow shifting
out of the southeast, weather will remain benign and temps
will remain well above normal through the rest of the work
week.

A cold front is expected to move through the region
Saturday, brining with it an increasing chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Wet conditions could persist through the
remainder of the weekend into early next week but there is
some model disagreements on placement and timing. We will
hammer down the details in the next couple of days as models
begin to align.

&&

Good Early Tuesday morning Folks!!...Blogs Coffee is perking for when you get here..grab a cup and relax here for a few!!...no fog by me here yet..dogs walked etc....looks like another nice day ahead..have a wonderful day everyone!!

Here is what the NWS is watching for next Tuesday, its 7 days away yet but......

well it looks like northern florida stays a bit cooler today......................................

Oh and.........The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is an upcoming event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season will officially begin on June 1, 2019, and end on November 30, 2019.

Feb was warm for sure but had enough cool spells up here I thought it was nice even with the +8.0 above "normal" temps (quoted for JR!). Seems the most variation is with overnight lows.

There's going to be a "bomb" low of sorts taking shape as we speak and mature tomorrow around the KS/CO/OK/TX borders. Should be a classic comma shape. Hope I get to capture a sat pic.

Hi guys. Thanks for updates. Yes Aug, curious to see what the bomb does.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
342 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

..Discussion...
Today - Thursday...
A developing storm system over the Central Plains will move
east and northeast toward the Great Lakes by Thursday.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure stretching from
New England, southwest across Florida and into the Gulf of
Mexico will gradually shift south and east, but remain in
control of our weather. Warm but generally dry conditions
are expected.

Friday - Sunday...
As the storm system moves northeast into Canada, the
associated cold front will sink slowly southward into
Florida Friday and Saturday, then become stationary over
south Florida or the Florida Straits on Sunday. A weak ridge
of high pressure will build in behind the front, but the
upper-level flow will be parallel to the front, keeping the
bulk of the cooler air locked up to our north. We should
get by with a dry day on Friday, but showers and even a few
thunderstorms will accompany the front Friday night and
Saturday. Sunday may be better if the front moves far enough
to our south.

Good Early Wednesday morning folks!!..another warm nice day ahead here, and maybe from Friday night on..our rain chances go up,even into next week..im ok with that..everything outside is starting to wake up, rain would be a good thing...well have a great day everyone!!

im wondering..if we will be getting some meaningful rain amounts this coming week or two?..models have fronts coming thru till the end of march or beyond? what do your folks think??

Billsfan.......................NWS MIAMI.........LONG TERM (Saturday-Monday): The next frontal boundary will begin
approaching our area by Saturday as the upper level ridge collapses.
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the boundary becoming
stationary along the southern tip of our area by Monday. During this
time, the upper level jet becomes oriented over the state and a
succession of vorticity perturbations push through the area providing
upper level support for enhanced rainfall in the form of scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

Given the position of the upper level jet along with a digging mid-
level shortwave at the end of the forecast period, both global
models hint at the possibility for cyclogenesis in our vicinity. At
this time, agreement is poor in regards to timing and overall
location. The most recent ECMWF run depicts more of a direct
impact for South Florida while the GFS keeps much of the
disturbance to the south before amplifying over the western
Atlantic. This will be something to be monitored with each model
run and as we get closer in time.

StAugustineFL wrote:Feb was warm for sure but had enough cool spells up here I thought it was nice even with the +8.0 above "normal" temps (quoted for JR!).  Seems the most variation is with overnight lows.

There's going to be a "bomb" low of sorts taking shape as we speak and mature tomorrow around the KS/CO/OK/TX borders.  Should be a classic comma shape.  Hope I get to capture a sat pic.

February was extremely warm here Aug. We really only had one day of normal winter time temps during the entire month. The rest of the time we were WAY above normal and humid as well. I think over on the NE coast you benefited from some onshore winds that helped keep the daytime temps down compared to over here on the West coast. March has really been much the same, but next week looks like maybe there will be a pattern change with cool, possibly wet weather on the way for the next couple of weeks anyway.

LargoFL wrote:im wondering..if we will be getting some meaningful rain amounts this coming week or two?..models have fronts coming thru till the end of march or beyond? what do your folks think??

Good afternoon. Definitely looks like a wetter pattern is on the way. Time will tell.

Here's a loop of the storm over the midwest. Definitely a doozy.

oh boy Aug, I can sure use the rainfall here..I hope all this verifies for us