Late January through February outlook

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Today - Friday...The powerful storm system that brought
blizzard conditions to portions of the Rockies and
Central/Northern Plains will weaken as it moves northeast
toward the Great Lakes today, and into Canada tonight. The
associated cold front will move into the Florida panhandle
on Friday, but a strong Atlantic ridge of high pressure will
keep our area dry through the end of the work week. It will
continue to be warmer than normal.

Saturday - Sunday...The cold front will sag slowly south
through the state on Saturday, then become stationary over
the Florida Straits on Sunday. A weak ridge of high pressure
will build in behind the front, but the upper-level flow
will be parallel to the front, keeping lots of clouds in
place. Temperatures will be closer to normal, due in large
part to the lack of sunshine. Scattered showers and even a
few thunderstorms will accompany the front Friday night and
Saturday. Showers may diminish by Sunday afternoon,
depending on how far south the front manages to travel.

Monday - Wednesday...Ripples of energy traveling eastward
across the Gulf of Mexico will re-energize the stationary
frontal boundary. Models continue to struggle with details,
which makes this portion of the forecast uncertain. A major
player for the beginning of next week will be a deepening
eastern U.S. trough. The deeper it is, the more suppressed
the frontal boundary and associated rain will be. Also,
there are indications that a weak area of low pressure will
ride along the front, enhancing lift and low-level
convergence along and north of the boundary. Any rains that
do occur should begin sometime Monday night, and will likely
continue through at least Tuesday night, and possibly
through Wednesday as well. Rainfall should be lightest to
the north, and steadier and heavier to the south. The ECMWF
was given the most weight for this period which lies between
the southern-most GFS and northern-most Canadian.

&&

Good Thursday Morning folks!! whew dogs woke me up earlier..seems a pack of Rabbits were in my front yard lol..gee HOW did the dogs know?? LOL..aww doesnt matter anyway..the dogs were on guard duty LOL...now where's the coffee........another warm day ahead but starting this Friday night on...weather changes come once again..cooler temps and possible rain etc...wekk have a great day everyone!!

Morning All,
Just checking in to let all know everything is awesome in Z-hills.
Yes Largo looks like some good rain chances coming soon!!
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Just checking in to let all know everything is awesome in Z-hills.
Yes Largo looks like some good rain chances coming soon!!
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills

yeah john, i hope the rains find us here also..sure could use some here..

StAugustineFL wrote:

Good afternoon.  Definitely looks like a wetter pattern is on the way.  Time will tell.

Here's a loop of the storm over the midwest.  Definitely a doozy.

Nice image!  Here's the temp map:

gee lets hope no severe winds or Tornado's Aug..it sure looks like it means business huh

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of Rip Currents for all of the
Atlantic beaches of South Florida.

Waterspouts: Atlantic showers could produce isolated waterspouts
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Strong east-northeast winds behind a cold front will create an
elevated risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches and
hazardous marine conditions over the local waters into the weekend.

The cold front will meander over the region into early next week. An
impulse of thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday which could bring
gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning to the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report waterspouts to the National
Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

RAG

well i cleaned out the gutters AGAIN lol...and pretty much took in things that could maybe blow around outside,,not trusting these almost spring storms,lets hope all these begins after you folks end your work week huh..good luck

hmmm may be a taste for what is heading OUR way?..........Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1208 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

MSZ037-043-044-141800-
Attala MS-Leake MS-Madison MS-
1208 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEAKE...SOUTHEASTERN
ATTALA AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1207 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Camden, or 17 miles northeast of Canton, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
 Thomastown and Newport around 1220 PM CDT.
 Singleton around 1230 PM CDT.
 Smyrna around 1240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 8990 3287 8992 3312 8939 3285 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 234DEG 39KT 3282 8984

$$

DC

well it looks like you folks up in northern Florida will have to let us people downstate know what to expect and how strong it will be ok...and stay alert and safe if driving tomorrow!!

gee IS GOME anywhere near this?..............
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  Tornado Watch Number 25
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  1210 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Northwestern Alabama
    Northeastern Mississippi
    Parts of western and middle Tennessee

  * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM
    until 700 PM CDT.

  * Primary threats include...
    Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes
      possible
    Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
    Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

  SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely intensify in a broken
  band through the afternoon from northeastern Mississippi into
  northwestern Alabama and middle Tennessee.  The storm environment
  will be favorable for supercells capable of producing a couple of
  strong tornadoes, along with damaging winds and isolated large hail.

  The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
  east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Clarksville
  TN to 35 miles south southeast of Columbus MS. For a complete
  depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
  (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
  tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
  area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
  threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
  and possible warnings.

  &&

Jenny IF..you are lurking here...stay alert and safe next few days ok

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
346 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.DISCUSSION....
Today...A weakening frontal boundary will be approaching the Florida
panhandle from the northwest. The Atlantic ridge is strong enough to
keep our weather mainly benign with just a few showers possible over
the southern interior late in the afternoon.

Tonight - Sunday... The cold front will reach our northern areas by
midnight tonight, then continue slowly southeast, reaching the Tampa
Bay area around sunrise Saturday, then the Fort Myers area during the
early evening hours. Models have been trending drier with the
passage, but it will be mainly cloudy. Moisture pooling ahead of the
boundary could allow for some sea fog development tonight, but it
will be short lived as winds turn northeasterly on Saturday. Some
showers, and perhaps even a few thunderstorms could develop near the
boundary Saturday afternoon. This should be confined to areas south
of I-4.

A general overrunning pattern sets up for Saturday night and Sunday
as weak ripples of energy move eastward in broad cyclonic flow. It
won`t always be raining, but rain will be possible at any time.

Good Friday Morning Folks and a big TGIF!!!!!...well another warm day and might get a shower in the evening then our weather change comes and hopefully some of this rain finds me LOL...have a wonderful day everyone!!!

Looks like some rainy weather headed for Central and South Florida the next 5-7 days. For me, it looks like just some showers and cloudy, cool conditions for the week. Looking forward to a reprieve from this early spring heat.

ok WD good luck, yes even by me.. day temps will be lower when the front gets here, fantastic!!

Lets all hope the Canadian Model is wrong, LOW crosses SFL and also brings ALOT of rain..

Could be some heavy rainfall next week for the southern half of FL.

Good afternoon and TGIF. Yep WD, that time of year up north with the spring melt/river flooding. I used to live in SE Iowa near the Mississippi River. It floods each year - just a question of how bad (minor/moderate/major/historical). This year it'll be major. Here's a snip from NWS Quad Cities. I lived in Fort Madison where my mom still resides.

...Flood Warning remains in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at Burlington.
* Until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM Friday the stage was 15.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, Rise to 20.1 feet Tuesday, then begin slowly falling.
* Impact, At 20.0 feet, Water reaches the front steps of the
Burlington Municipal Auditorium and affects the parking lot. Water
affects industries at the south end of town. Water affects most of
Riverview Park in Fort Madison.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon and TGIF.  Yep WD, that time of year up north with the spring melt/river flooding.  I used to live in SE Iowa near the Mississippi River.  It floods each year - just a question of how bad (minor/moderate/major/historical).  This year it'll be major.  Here's a snip from NWS Quad Cities.  I lived in Fort Madison where my mom still resides.

...Flood Warning remains in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
 The Mississippi River at Burlington.
* Until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM Friday the stage was 15.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, Rise to 20.1 feet Tuesday, then begin slowly falling.
* Impact, At  20.0 feet, Water reaches the front steps of the
 Burlington Municipal Auditorium and affects the parking lot. Water
 affects industries at the south end of town. Water affects most of
 Riverview Park in Fort Madison.

gee a 5 foot rise is quite alot there AUG!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
336 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today-Sunday)...
High amplitude northern stream flow will occur across much
of North America as an U/L ridge builds over the western
U.S. and Canada which will reinforce a downstream trough
over the eastern CONUS. Southern stream flow will undercut
this pattern extending from the eastern Pacific...across
northern Mexico...the Gulf of Mexico...and the Florida
peninsula.

A cold front will sink slowly south across the Florida
peninsula today and tonight with mostly cloudy skies and a
chance of light showers across much of west central and
southwest Florida. The front will stall across south Florida
on Sunday as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. Cooler
drier air will advect across the region in the wake of the
cold front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night-Friday)
The frontal boundary will persist across south Florida on
Monday with continued mostly cloudy skies, with a chance of
showers mainly over southwest Florida. High pressure will
build over the eastern U.S. with clearing skies approaching
the northern forecast area...as there will likely be a sharp
dividing line between clouds north of the stalled frontal
boundary across the Florida peninsula and mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies across the southeast U.S. and
north Florida.

A bit of uncertainty Monday night and Tuesday as a southern
stream disturbance is expected to ride over the stalled
frontal boundary across south Florida and enhance shower
and possibly thunderstorm activity along and north of the
frontal boundary...with the rain extending north over the
central Florida peninsula. The disturbance will exit the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday with high pressure
building over the forecast area late in the week with skies
becoming partly cloudy with mild dry conditions Thursday and
Friday.

&&

Good Saturday Morning folks!!...no rain or cold temps here by me yet but i think since this coming font will be staying awhile and possibly another LOW riding over or just north of it we might stay a lil more alert thru the coming week huh,,,as they are saying this morning Alot of Uncertainty. well have a great day everyone!!

Billsfan and those living south of I-4 corridor might want to stay a lil more alert, rainfall might get heavy at times even Into the coming week.

Morning. Good luck on the rains. Only good chance here is late tonight/tomorrow with totals 1/2" at best. It'll be welcome though and, coupled with the much cooler temps, will prevent me from running the irrigation. Looks like bills will be the big winner for sure over the coming days.

Everything is greening up here nicely. Some of the dormant trees are beginning to burst with new foliage. My 2 maples leafed out some time ago. The crepe myrtles and oak are now on their way.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  Good luck on the rains.  Only good chance here is late tonight/tomorrow with totals 1/2" at best.  It'll be welcome though and, coupled with the much cooler temps, will prevent me from running the irrigation.  Looks like bills will be the big winner for sure over the coming days.

Everything is greening up here nicely.  Some of the dormant trees are beginning to burst with new foliage.  My 2 maples leafed out some time ago.  The crepe myrtles and oak are now on their way.

hiya Aug, yes it sure looks like Billsfan will be the winner rainfall wise for sure, just hope no flooding amounts,so far its a beautiful day here by me.

whew it seems tuesday might be one stormy day as that Low crosses down there...

NWS Melbourne...(clipped)...Weak low pressure is forecast to move across the southern
peninsula Tuesday, bringing a high chance of rain. While excessive
rain and flooding is presently not anticipated, several inches of
rain may fall, especially along the coast from Indian River County
to south of Martin County.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Spratt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
314 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)...
High amplitude northern stream flow will persist across
much of North America as an U/L ridge builds over the
western U.S. and Canada. This will reinforce the downstream
trough over the eastern CONUS. Southern stream flow will
continue to undercut this pattern extending from the eastern
Pacific...across northern Mexico...the Gulf of Mexico...and
the Florida peninsula.

A cold front will sink slowly south across the central
Florida peninsula today and will stall across south Florida
tonight. Cooler drier air will advect across the region in
the wake of the cold front. Mostly cloudy skies and a chance
of showers will occur across much of west central and
southwest Florida today through Monday.

.LONG TERM (Monday night-Saturday)...
A southern stream disturbance is expected to ride over the
stationary boundary across south Florida Monday night and
Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers mainly south of
the I-4 corridor. High pressure will build over the eastern
U.S. with clearing skies approaching the northern forecast
area. There will likely be a sharp dividing line between
clouds north of the stalled frontal boundary across the
Florida peninsula and mostly clear/partly cloudy skies
across the southeast U.S. and north Florida.

The disturbance will exit the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday with high pressure building over the forecast
area. Skies will become partly cloudy late Wednesday and
Wednesday night across west central and southwest Florida.

A secondary dry frontal passage is expected Thursday night
and Friday with high pressure and building over the forecast
area with seasonable temperatures and dew points dropping
into the 40s north and central...and the lower 50s south.

&&

Good Sunday Morning Folks!..looks like an Interesting few days ahead for us huh. good luck for those who need rain!!..none here by me so far....well have a great day everyone!! now where's that Coffee lol

Good afternoon everyone! Wow, not liking that Tuesday forecast. I could use the rain, but not the nasty stuff.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Good afternoon everyone!  Wow, not liking that Tuesday forecast.  I could use the rain, but not the nasty stuff.  

yes heed your local warnings and be safe there Billsfan!!

a very light sprinkle here..just drops right now by me.

well This run of the GFS takes the Low thru the straights into the Bahama's...........

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
412 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.Discussion...
Currently a cold front is stalled out in the
Florida Straits with high pressure in the southeast. This
has caused winds in the low level to come out of the
northeast while upper level winds are out of the west. This
means we have an overrunning scenario over the state of
Florida which is bringing overcast skies and light on and
off rain for our Monday.

By Tuesday a trough will be pushing along the front which will
enhance shower activity. There will be a sharp contrast when it
comes to rain shower chances. Areas north of I-4 will mostly stay
dry with chances lower than 40 percent. South of I-4 shower chances
will increase quickly with our southern counties around 90 percent.
The cooler northeast flow and overcast skies will also keep
temperatures cool with high staying in the 60`s over the next two
days.

The front will finally start to move away by Wednesday which will
slowly push out the cloud cover and allowing our temperatures to get
back into the 70`s. Thursday and Friday will be the opposite of the
first half of the week. PWs could be as low as 0.5 by Friday which
means we will have plenty of sunshine to end the week with highs
staying the mid 70`s.

Temperatures will be on the rise by the weekend with most of us back
in the 80`s. Models are split if our next front will be here by next
Sunday and Monday. The GFS has a weakening front pushing through
while the EURO has high pressure still in control. We will
split the difference for now with 20 to 30 PoPs in the
forecast for next Sunday.

&&

Good Monday Morning Folks!! cool outside and 58 degree's doesnt look like i got any rain last night,did you??..well have a wonderful day everyone!!

well GFS is saying its a possible all day rainy kind of day looks like I-4 southward huh......

Billsfan......................National Weather Service Miami FL
334 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A lingering frontal boundary across the area has made its final
push south into the Florida Straits on 03Z WPC surface analysis.
With deeper moisture in place, showers across the peninsula will
become likely once again through late this afternoon and early
evening. The 00Z MIA sounding depicts shallow, northerly flow
through 850mb that indicates weak cold air advection, which will
moderate temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days.

An apparent shortwave trough in water vapor imagery over Mexico
will rapidly traverse through the westerlies across the Central
Gulf and interact with the stalled boundary to produce weak
cyclogenesis. As the disturbance continues its trek eastward,
advection of deep tropical moisture coinciding with upper level
divergence from the subtropical jet aloft and mid-level impulses
riding across the state will provide enough lift for rainfall to
become more widespread by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much of the
thunderstorm chances look to remain further south, closer to the
boundary. However, some storms may become strong enough to produce
lightning, a few rumbles of thunder, and possibly waterspouts
primarily over the Atlantic waters. Rainfall totals look to be
between 1 to 3 inches with experimental probabilistic QPF
indicating the possibility for higher accumulation of 4 to 6
inches over the Palm Beach and Broward metro areas. Given the
expected increase in precipitation through the period, localized
flooding and ponding of water could result from periods of heavier
rainfall that produce higher accumulation. However, widespread
flooding is not expected.

Rain chances decrease on Thursday and for the remainder of the
forecast period as a another weak, dry frontal passage helps to
clear out the deeper moisture well to our south. Rainfall will
remain mostly along the Atlantic and east coast until the front
clears. Thereafter, high pressure returns, allowing cooler and
drier air to filter in across the peninsula.

&&

Navy Models keeps the rain going into Wednesday whew......................

almost here...........Spring 2019 in Northern Hemisphere will begin on
Wednesday, March 20

even cooler tomorrow.

Boo to Spring Largo! That just means heat and humidity is on the way. Yuck
Thanks for the updates. Fingers crossed.

Good afternoon. Had a "deluge" yesterday drop 1/50th of an inch of rain or .02" JR weather in store this week. Highs in the 60's and 70's with lows in the 50's.

Looks like a rainy few days here

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Boo to Spring Largo!  That just means heat and humidity is on the way.  Yuck
Thanks for the updates. Fingers crossed.

LOL ok

AUG...alert and safe up there ok!!............................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
324 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

FLZ124-125-133-138-GAZ154-166-192100-
/O.NEW.KJAX.WI.Y.0005.190319T1400Z-190320T0200Z/
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coastal St. Johns-Coastal Flagler-
Coastal Glynn-Coastal Camden-
Including the cities of Amelia City, Fernandina Beach, Yulee,
Arlington, Jacksonville, Oceanway, Tallyrand, Ponte Vedra Beach,
Durbin, Palm Valley, Anastasia, Saint Augustine, Palm Coast,
Jekyll Island, Glynn Haven, Sea Island, St. Simons,
Country Club Estate, Dock Junction, Dover Bluff, Kingsland,
and Dungeness
324 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
this evening.

* WINDS...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds increasing late this morning with peak winds
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

* IMPACTS...Minor damage to trees, power lines, and property are
possible with wind of this magnitude.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds greater than
25 mph are expected for at least an hour, with gusts of 35 to
57 mph at any time.

Minor damage to trees, power lines, and property are possible
with wind of this magnitude. Motorists in high profiles vehicles
are advised to use caution until the wind subsides. Strong winds
can topple trees, blow weakened roofs off houses, and down power
lines. Take precautions to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and
any other loose outdoor objects.

&&

$$