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Hurricane Danny

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Hurricane Danny

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:40 pm

With the 11AM NHC advisory Tropical Storm Danny attained hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 75mph.  Danny becomes the 4th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and the 1st hurricane.  Mimimum central pressure was estimated at 992MB with a steady movement to the WNW at 12mph.


Fig1:  Goes visible floater of Hurricane Danny ending at 19:45 UTC on Thursday, August 20th, 2015.  

The future for Danny
Most reliable models slowly weaken Danny in the coming days but it should at a minimum be a threat to the NE Leeward Islands and possibly the NE Caribbean.  Such small, compact systems are difficult to predict so we shall see how things evolve through the weekend.  That said the road ahead looks rough viewing the WV satellite.


Fig2:  As hurricane Danny gains latitude he'll have his work cut out for him.

In addition to the dry air, wind shear should be a concern as well.


Fig3:  CIMSS shear map shows 20-40kts of shear in Danny's short term path.  The kiss of death?

Meanwhile, hostile conditions aside, the NHC maintains Danny as a hurricane before weakening to a TS on approach to Puerto Rico.



5 day intensity forecast:

INIT  20/1500Z 12.5N  44.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 13.1N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 14.0N  47.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 14.7N  49.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 15.2N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 16.0N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 16.9N  61.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 18.0N  66.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

What will the end game be?  We shall find out!

Disclaimer:  I have no idea WTH I'm talking about but hope ya'll enjoy.

***  All images are static and won't auto update.
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by emcf30 on Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:46 pm

Good job Aug. Yep, One part of me thinks it will go poof from Hurricane status around PR However, like you said, such a tight core can and will trick folks on future strength of a storm.. It is already stronger than the original predictions. Up to 80 at the 5 advisory
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:53 pm

Thanks E man. I think this is my 2nd blog. Maybe 3rd if I'm lucky.
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by sangria on Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:55 pm

Nice job peaches!!  five

This one might be worth watching.
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:01 pm

Thanks san. Should it weaken the circulation will remain intact, shoot through the FL straits, stall for 3 days off the FL keys then make a beeline to Tampa. Rooster
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by sangria on Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:08 pm

Methinks you forget about the trough.  It will get caught up and ride the FL east coastline, it gets left behind, and the ridge immediately moves back in. It tries to #pump the ridge and fails; then it will make a hard left and slam into St Johns County.     girl moon


Last edited by sangria on Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:09 pm

Just for you san.

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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by sangria on Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:20 pm

Thanks Aug... that settles it.  Will be dry and sunny in the Tampa Bay region!
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by StAugustineFL on Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:49 pm

Perhaps not since that image was from August 2012. May I suggest you're due for the annual eye exam?

Dr. Phil
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by gomexwx on Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:00 am

Good read...thanks Aug!

my thoughts....the one ,two and three punch..
First: Danny will have to fight off being violated in the eye by dry air intrusion....SAL has something for him!

Second: El Nino has it out for him and will punch him head on with wind shear...

Third if he survives the first two will be orographic obliteration (death by Mountain)..LOL
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by sangria on Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:36 pm

e slap  e slap  e slap



StAugustineFL wrote:Perhaps not since that image was from August 2012.  May I suggest you're due for the annual eye exam?

Dr. Phil
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Re: Hurricane Danny

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:11 pm

The punch you eluded to now looks to be underway gomey. Will see what's left in a few days. If it can retain a respectable LLC once clear of the islands conditions should be more favorable for regeneration.


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Re: Hurricane Danny

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