CLOSED 8-13-17 FLORIDA/ALABAMA WEATHER

JRnOldsmar wrote:Cat6 Blog:
Where Will Clouds Foil the Big Eclipse?

MorningALL,
Just checking in to say HI!!!!
Clouds for the eclipse is just what I was wondering about.
Glad you shared.
Have a great day
John Z-hills

severstorm wrote:

JRnOldsmar wrote:Cat6 Blog:
Where Will Clouds Foil the Big Eclipse?

MorningALL,
Just checking in to say HI!!!!
Clouds for the eclipse is just what I was wondering about.
Glad you shared.
Have a great day
John Z-hills

good morning John, yes clouds may indeed spoil it for some in certain area's..well have a great day ok...doesn't look very good for rain by me right now..maybe later

12Z estimated tracks for 92L..its the one WE need to really keep an eye out for any changes...

so we watch and wait for 92L..again..nothing is certain yet,lets see what sunday runs say,so far models keep it a tropical storm, THAT I'm watching very closely too lol

yes 12Z CMC still takes it into the gulf...this one we need to pay attention to huh.........

yeah this is the one I myself watch very closely,still 9-10 days out,could change..........

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

gomexwx wrote:I will be stone cold dead by 2045
That's why I am traveling to see this one....I missed the one in the 70's

where are you going to watch it?

Hopkinsville,Ky. Meeting my cousin there he is also an astrophotographer and backyard astronomer..

LargoFL wrote:

gomexwx wrote:I will be stone cold dead by 2045
That's why I am traveling to see this one....I missed the one in the 70's

gome make sure you have the REAL eclipse glasses,news is all over the place warning folks about the fake ones...save your eyesight my friend.

my eyes...

well good luck up there gome..its one of those life's memories you never forget.

well seems to be ALOT of rain/storms inland today,not a drop here by me once again..

LargoFL wrote:well good luck up there gome..its one of those life's memories you never forget.

yes sir!..
oh and like my other astronomy blogs here, you will see the results of our work with the eclipse..

well still 9-10 days away but some more models are suggesting 92L in the gulf and into the panhandle,stay tuned and prepared up there just in case..way too soon to believe though..we'll be watching this storm for many days to come.

odds for development just went up over the next 5 days..............................ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda.

1. A low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined since yesterday, but
most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during
the next day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea
on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary, and
interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A second area of low pressure is located about 800 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

gomexwx wrote:

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

gomexwx wrote:I will be stone cold dead by 2045
That's why I am traveling to see this one....I missed the one in the 70's

where are you going to watch it?

Hopkinsville,Ky. Meeting my cousin there he is also an astrophotographer and backyard astronomer..

Wow... That's sounds fantastic. Will look forward to seeing your updates.

Thanks Largo for t he latest updates. Hope it stays far, far away from all of us!

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks Largo for t he latest updates.   Hope it stays far, far away from all of us!

ok Billsfan,so far so good for you down there but its still a long way off and we need to stay alert,im really hoping it stays away from all of Florida..

well right now I'm hearing distant booms of thunder but suns full out by me..wish one storm would stray over here by me lol..whew that sun is hot and strong today.

Billsfan if you see Matt around the web, tell him about our blog here ok..i sure miss him..he was a great poster too.

yeah you have some storms down there also..good luck Billsfan..................

yes we really do need to watch this 92L very closely huh.............................

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
335 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

FLC035-162100-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.W.0036.170816T1935Z-170816T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Flagler FL-
335 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Flagler County in northeastern Florida...

* Until 500 PM EDT

* At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain which will cause flooding. Up to two inches of rain has
already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Palm Coast and Beverly Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2965 8119 2949 8113 2948 8125 2964 8127

$$

Thanks for the updates Largo.  Models fair poorly with intensity forecast.  It's the tracks I follow more closely and 92L, like you've mentioned, is the one to watch.

Doesn't feel that hot here but FWIW below is the nearby PWS which is fairly accurate.  Maybe it is but I only walked to the mail box and back after work. Flood advisory was about 25 miles SSE. Sunny here.



80% chance of thunderstorms here tomorrow.  We shall see.

StAugustineFL wrote:Thanks for the updates Largo.  Models fair poorly with intensity forecast.  It's the tracks I follow more closely and 92L, like you've mentioned, is the one to watch.

Doesn't feel that hot here but FWIW below is the nearby PWS which is fairly accurate.  Maybe it is but I only walked to the mail box and back after work. Flood advisory was about 25 miles SSE.  Sunny here.



80% chance of thunderstorms here tomorrow.  We shall see.

wow heat is on up there huh Aug...sun is sure strong here by me whew.

swflwx...if your lurking,all these storms are heading SW towards you..good luck ok....

Jax radar was down for a few hours earlier and recently came back online. Nice east coast seabreeze now approaching I-95. If it can penetrate another 10 miles west in the next couple hours there could be some boomers. Time will tell.

yeah Aug..we cant listen to strength till maybe 2-3 days out,sometimes they strengthen almost to shore...well the last weekend in August could get very interesting..or not...we'll wait this one out..but for sure I'm watching it closely alright.

Here's the floater infrared of 92L.  Pretty weak at the moment but the spin is evident.

Edit: haven't checked the CIMMS shear map but based off that sat there is none in the short term. It is all moving with the system which nets out to none. Of course that can change in the coming days.

for those folks who want to watch the eclipse........just found this.........

Switching to visible sat I don't see much, if any, difference. 92L is chugging along with the trades. Seems to be moving quickly which could be the inhibitor in the short term.

well that's about it for me...have a good night folks.

LargoFL wrote:well that's about it for me...have a good night folks.

Have a good one Largo. Enjoying a brief period of downtime checking weather before I fire up the grill assuming the seabreeze doesn't produce - or I give myself a 30 minute window to "git-er-done"

NWS Tampa...............Thu Aug 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon. Any storms that develop will be capable of
producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

well so far this early morning it looks like 92L will be heading this way...........

Good Thursday Morning Folks!!.....local met is saying could be more showers/storms today, hopefully some rain will find my area lol...I don't know when you folks will be travelling to see this Eclipse so I'm going to say early on...Have a safe trip and do NOT forget those special glasses ok..when you get back I want you to be able to See this blog lol...yeah I know..it could be a once in a life time event..i hope you get to experience it............well Blogs COFFEE is set to perk for when you get here, have a wonderful day everyone!

well so far it looks like 92 is coming but I don't see too many models excited aboit it..Tropical storm at best so far...

well most folks like the Euro model..it puts 92L Into so FLA up into Central FL.........

yes GFS also has a storm into south Florida then up to central Florida .....

well we'll see how this tropical stuff plays out, we still have a week or so to watch wait and see what happens..still too early yet..lets see what they are saying maybe sun-Monday..hopefully these tracks will change huh....I do notice in browsing the web...I saw one met thinking 92L might strengthen when it gets to the Bahama's before coming into florida...I guess we've seen That happen before huh. stay tuned and since we are nearing the Peak time for storms..good time to go over preps and plans etc...just to be ready and prepared.

CMC model brings 92 thru the straights into the gulf as a hurricane,but into the panhandle...

ok so in 7-10 days we have 3 of the major models today saying somewhere into Florida with 92L..man I hope this changes...good thing we have a week or more for this to happen.

Lets see what happens when a storm actually forms. The models always change significantly then. Right now the models are just a reminder that we are getting to the peak of the season and we need to be prepared for the possibility of a storm coming our direction.

On the current weather the subtropical ridge axis shifted south again over the weekend and we have been back to early morning showers due to the westerly flow regime. Most of the week the storms just missed me, but I had a nice downpour this morning at 4:30 AM and got 0.50" out of it. Other than the scattered AM storms it has been hot and very humid this week. NWS seems to think the ridge axis will shift northward and bring the entire peninsula into the easterlies and afternoon sea breeze storms starting next week. I hope it sets up shop and stays for awhile this time.

LargoFL wrote:ok so in 7-10 days we have 3 of the major models today saying somewhere into Florida with 92L..man I hope this changes...good thing we have a week or more for this to happen.

always makes me nervous when the morning radio people are talking about it this early.

Good morning everyone. We need some rain badly, but not in the form of a tropical storm! Have a good day all!

waterdipper wrote:Lets see what happens when a storm actually forms. The models always change significantly then. Right now the models are just a reminder that we are getting to the peak of the season and we need to be prepared for the possibility of a storm coming our direction.

On the current weather the subtropical ridge axis shifted south again over the weekend and we have been back to early morning showers due to the westerly flow regime. Most of the week the storms just missed me, but I had a nice downpour this morning at 4:30 AM and got 0.50" out of it. Other than the scattered AM storms it has been hot and very humid this week. NWS seems to think the ridge axis will shift northward and bring the entire peninsula into the easterlies and afternoon sea breeze storms starting next week. I hope it sets up shop and stays for awhile this time.

yes I sure do need the rain also WD

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:ok so in 7-10 days we have 3 of the major models today saying somewhere into Florida with 92L..man I hope this changes...good thing we have a week or more for this to happen.

always makes me nervous when the morning radio people are talking about it this early.

Good morning everyone.  We need some rain badly, but not in the form of a tropical storm!   Have a good day all!

yes that's so true Billsfan..we need the rains but not the strong winds that's for sure.

well local met is saying rain here should begin sometime around noon, hopefully some reaches me or tomorrow i'll have to run the sprinklers a little longer,ground is so dry now.

well NHC raised the chances of 92 developing up to 60% over 5 days...all well and good but we need to see what they are saying once 92 reaches the Bahama's mid next week..still too early yet folks.