CLOSED FLORIDA/ALABAMA/TROPICAL BLOG

Hi. Appreciate the updates. I've been away for a few days. My father in law passed away peacefully last week. The funeral services were yesterday. Heading back home to Ft L now.
Gosh is it flooded along 75 and the Alley. We spoke with someone who raises horses near Englewood and they are having major issues with the hooves being damaged with all the wet grounds.
Thanks for updates. My bother in law is supposed to.be moving his daughter to Charleston later this week. I told him I'd update him. We have another niece in Hilton Head.

Hi Billsfan, so sorry to hear about your FIL. Prayers and thoughts with you and your family.

Thanks San. We had a nice weekend together.

by thurs/Friday we should have an official NHC track..models still don't count ok

@Billsfan sorry to hear of your Father in Law. May the Lord bring you and your family peace.
- Largo, I've noticed the southward shift of the models today. Appears Irma took quite the dip S making FL and the Carolina's the possibility today. Still early.

well my opinion on Irma..in following the model runs..Florida will feel something from Irma..especially east coast..even if it doesn't exactly come ashore..it will be running real close UP the east coast,now CMC and Navy and maybe even JMA bring it ashore here..for myself I'm preparing as best I can and hopefully..by My area maybe strong TS winds...now IF it comes ashore..all bets are off..ive never lived thru a cat-4 hurricane and I'm sooo unsure what is going to happen..ive been thru a strong TS here before but this is sooo different..again..this is only my opinion ok...im no Met...and I'm guessing by say thurs/Friday we will have an official track and will know better.....we went to sams club this morning and bought our supplies...man the cases of bottled water where flying off the shelves already...now how I protect my house..other than taking in things outside I dunno......but in reading the hurricane sites...a cat 4 wind can take the roof off etc...not anything I can do about that but I bought these boxes of Huge plastic bags in case I have to cover TV's and things as water flows in..we have made the decision to ride this storm out, hope we live to see it over and done with.....just my opinion but the models are scary and as ive said..never went thru this before...........only good thing is...so far I don't see Irma coming over to the gulf side of Florida so here I wont get the worst of it..hopefully....like NHC and NWS is saying time to prepare is now,way before it could get here...sorry if this bothers anyone.

Billsfan..prayers for the Family also.

here is the 12Z Euro,which model most like by Saturday........................

Largo I have the same feelings. This is my 3rd year in FL so I'm more a neophyte than anyone on the blog. According to models, FL gets grazed on E, and we are on the W so unless it goes over top of us we won't have the top wind. I believe it was last year when I was talking to neighbors who went through hurricanes, they advised if it's a 3 and up, leave. Too dangerous. You have dogs, as do I, and a cat but we won't talk about Bob, jk, anyway find a hotel away from the track that's pet friendly. Take essentials, records, what have you and leave. That's what insurance is for. Take pix of all rooms in house to document for ins and go.

PuppyToes wrote:Largo I have the same feelings. This is my 3rd year in FL so I'm more a neophyte than anyone on the blog. According to models, FL gets grazed on E, and we are on the W so unless it goes over top of us we won't have the top wind. I believe it was last year when I was talking to neighbors who went through hurricanes, they advised if it's a 3 and up, leave. Too dangerous. You have dogs, as do I, and a cat but we won't talk about Bob, jk, anyway find a hotel away from the track that's pet friendly. Take essentials, records, what have you and leave. That's what insurance is for. Take pix of all rooms in house to document for ins and go.

yes on this current Euro 12Z run..Irma grazes SE florida then runs up the east coast,no direct coming ashore..and here around Tampa bay, we don't get hurricane winds...............BUT.....its still a week away and these models can change on a dime....we'll see thru this coming week what happens....maybe Friday is the runs I'm going to listen to unless it speeds up...thank's PT

Mark Sudduth just put out a new video discussion.
Hurricanetrack.com FYI won't nail down a US landfall yet.

this model takes Irma into the gulf and up into the panhandle.........................................

well we cannot believe any model today...wait for maybe Friday ok.

Thanks PT, Largo for the kind words.
I don't know what to make out of Irma, except I don't like her!
I thought it was trending to be a Caroilna issue, but now it looks like more of a FL? Are the HH' s finished out there?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks PT, Largo for the kind words.  
I don't know what to make out of Irma, except I don't like her!
I thought it was trending to be a Caorilna issue, but now it looks like more of a FL?  Are the HH' s finished out there?

hi I don't think so Billsfan maybe around 5 30 our time tonight......but really heed what the NWS in Miami will be saying this coming week..my guess is by Thursday they'll know what to expect down there ok.....my next door neighbor I guess said it best..he's preparing for the worst, and if that don't happen, at least he was prepared...one good thing by me here...everyone knows about Irma and ARE heeding the warnings etc....Harvey was a wake up call for us huh

on mikes weather page they say HH's are heading to Irma and the 5pm NHC discussion should have what they find ok.

We're getting generator gas tomorrow. Just in case. He's going to start it up too. Reassess flashlights etc.

Largo, PT etc... check out the Irma thread on the Main blog category.

here is the NHC 5pm discussion...............................................000
WTNT41 KNHC 032052
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

The satellite presentation of Irma has degraded slightly since
this morning with the eye becoming less defined. There is evidence
of some northerly flow beneath the cirrus outflow, which may be
disrupting the inner core and preventing Irma from strengthening.
The latest consensus of the Dvorak satellite estimates suggest that
the 100 kt initial intensity could be a little generous, but with a
NOAA aircraft headed into the hurricane it is best to wait until
data from that mission is received before making any adjustment to
the initial wind speed.

Irma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory, but
the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or
260/12 kt. A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic
should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward during the next
couple of days. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest
should occur as Irma approaches the western portion of the Atlantic
ridge. The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively
small through day 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the
southern side of the guidance envelope, with the GFS near the
middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track is once again near
the consensus of these typically reliable models, which is between
the southern edge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model
consensus. The updated track is not very different from the
previous advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of
the previous forecast.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In fact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded, especially over the northern semicircle. As a
result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.


KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches may be required on Monday. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by
officials.

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 16.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 17.3N 58.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.1N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

well good night folks...stay safe out there ok

Thoughts and prayers for you and your family billsfan during this time of grieving. If any consolation, at least it was a peaceful passing.

FWIW, my good buddy Bob A (weatherguy03 for the former WU'ers) is leaning towards an east coast scraper for FL. SE FL noses out further into the west Atlantic so could be more problematic down there (sorry billsfan!) One of his buddies who is a met for the Federal Aviation Administration is leaning towards the Japanese model.

Thanks Aug. I remember Bob, he wouldn't say something like that on a whim. Doing the math on the projected last/long it puts it right on my doorstep. Uggh

Which one is the Japanese model?

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Which one is the Japanese model?

It's the JMA Largo posted at 3:35 PM.

Thanks Aug. Hate to root for this thing to go anywhere but OTS.

Good Monday Morning folks and Happy Labor Day everyone!......looks like a 50/50 chance for showers all this week.......have a great day everyone!

Morning Largo! No rain here yesterday, but maybe a slightly better chance today.

Morning. No rain here either but a 60% chance today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. Just hope nothing excessive for anyone dependent upon who/where Irma impacts.

sangria wrote:Morning Largo!   No rain here yesterday, but maybe a slightly better chance today.  

good morning San,yes same here no rain

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  No rain here either but a 60% chance today, tomorrow, and Wednesday.  Just hope nothing excessive for anyone dependent upon who/where Irma impacts.

good morning Aug..yes its a waiting game now thru the week,wind is the only thing I'm worried about,and yeah maybe tornado's etc...still time for things to change huh.

here's my 7day forecast for the tampa bay area.................................

real glad I had the steel reinforcement bars added to my garage door...............

Hello all.

Still away on family weekend stuff. Sorry to hear of your father-in-law BillsFan. Prayers for you and your family.

Today is Universal Studios (where my daughter works). Last day for the Dragon Challenge (previously, Dueling Dragons) roller coaster. We'll be riding it most of the day, with a break or 2 for the refurbished Hulk.

I do not like the Irma track this morning; Thursday might be a decision day, BillsFan.

Thanks for all of the updates.

Later everyone.

have lots of fun over there JR!!

Billsfan, I'm sure you folks are really busy prep wise...good luck down there ok..im praying the model tracks change,and Irma goes off the florida coast.

Popcorn hit/miss storms meandering about.......

JRnOldsmar wrote:Hello all.

Still away on family weekend stuff.  Sorry to hear of your father-in-law BillsFan.  Prayers for you and your family.

Today is Universal Studios (where my daughter works).  Last day for the Dragon Challenge (previously, Dueling Dragons) roller coaster.  We'll be riding it most of the day, with a break or 2 for the refurbished Hulk.  

I do not like the Irma track this morning; Thursday might be a decision day, BillsFan.  

Thanks for all of the updates.

Later everyone.

Thanks for the condolences JR! And have fun today.
We will not be evacuating as my husband must be here after the storm is gone. (after Wilma he was at work within the hour)...
I don't like this at all!

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan, I'm sure you folks are really busy prep wise...good luck down there ok..im praying the model tracks change,and Irma goes off the florida coast.

Yes Largo, we have been busy all day. Thank goodness today is a holiday.

The stores are absolutely insane. Walmart was out of water this morning. As was Publix, but I made a second trip and got lucky so now I have over 8 cases of water and 7 gallons just in case.
I have plenty of everything else. At least I think so.
Only fly in the ointment is the generator will not start. He last checked it in May and it was fine and he worked on it for hours and couldn't get it going. After work tomorrow he will bring over some of his guys and they will load it up and take it to a guy next door to work that works on those type of things. Fingers crossed!

Hey Billsfan! Water is running out at the stores here as well. I'm actually very surprised.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:

LargoFL wrote:Billsfan, I'm sure you folks are really busy prep wise...good luck down there ok..im praying the model tracks change,and Irma goes off the florida coast.

Yes Largo, we have been busy all day. Thank goodness today is a holiday.

The stores are absolutely insane.  Walmart was out of water this morning. As was Publix, but I made a second trip and got lucky so now I have over 8 cases of water and 7 gallons just in case.
I have plenty of everything else.  At least I think so.
Only fly in the ointment is the generator will not start.  He last checked it in May and it was fine and he worked on it for hours and couldn't get it going.  After work tomorrow he will bring over some of his guys and they will load it up and take it to a guy next door to work that works on those type of things.  Fingers crossed!  

Billsfan,could it be old gas in the generator? sometimes that happens...good luck to you folks ok..the models for down there on todays runs are scary.

sangria wrote:Hey Billsfan!  Water is running out at the stores here as well.  I'm actually very surprised.  

yesterday we went to sams club and I waited in the car..well every one that came out of the store had 5-6 cases of water in the cart..geez.

a lot of scattered showers inland and east coast..nothing by me so far...........

So do you guys think by Wednesday that we all will know here in Florida what the projected path will be for us here?

Looks like we have a bullseye on us RJ.
Go to the main blog. We have a hurricane Irma blog going.

Yeah I know. Been watching as everyone else over there for a week now. Just don't see that 90 degree hook north happening.