CLOSED Beginning of 2018 Tropical Season for Florida

Hello and Welcome to our new weather blog,quite an Interesting weather weekend coming up for us.

6.4" of rain in St. Pete this past week, got to be approaching a record. Clear today, can finally mow my lawn this evening!

Still haven't canceled weekend plans, hoping for a westward drift

Thanks for the new blog. Hopefully less of a chance of rain for us with the westward motion?

StPeteFLwx wrote:6.4" of rain in St. Pete this past week, got to be approaching a record. Clear today, can finally mow my lawn this evening!

Still haven't canceled  weekend plans, hoping for a westward drift

gee St.pete I just finished my lawn because it may be raining thru wednesday next gee.

BillsfaninSoFla wrote:Thanks for the new blog.  Hopefully less of a chance of rain for us with the westward motion?

remember Billsfan unless it comes really close, all or most of Florida will be on its bad rainy east side..it all comes this way to us once it gets into the gulf. but lets see what happens...i saw one predicttion site that has our whole gulf side of the state with u-wards of 4-5 inches..could be more if it slows down too wow

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

FLC085-232115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0033.180523T1940Z-180523T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Martin FL-
340 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Southwestern Martin County in east central Florida...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
One to two inches of rain have fallen.

Additional rainfall of one inch is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2712 8068
2714 8068 2713 8049 2696 8043 2696 8061

$$

Combs

BILLSFAN....i snipped this from nws miami discussion...still alot of rain for you too......................................Late this week into the weekend the forecast is highly dependent on
the tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean. Currently the
National Hurricane Center has a 60 percent chance of development
over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico in the next five days.
Models continue to differ on when and where the system will actually
track. The GFS continues to be on the eastern edge of all the
guidance tracking closer to the west coast of Florida. While the
ECMWF tracks the system further west into the northern Gulf.
Regardless of development and the track of the system an abundance
of tropical moisture will move into the South Florida. The moisture
surge will bring PWATs above 2 inches across the area. This moisture
will bring an increase in rain chances and a slight chance of
thunderstorms late week through the holiday weekend. There is
potential for 3 to 5 inches of rain across the region through the
weekend with locally higher amounts. With the potential for
excessive rainfall, this could bring potential flooding issues with
already saturated ground and elevated canal levels. Those with
interests in South Florida should monitor developments closely
through the rest of this week and the holiday weekend.

&&

myself, im hoping we dont get any Tornado's or 60+ mph winds etc, rain we can take huh

Thanks Largo.

Good afternoon. Levi posted on his page for those who follow him.

The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is still expected to bring extra rain to the southeast U.S. from Louisiana to Florida, likely beginning by Saturday. Note that frequent afternoon/evening rain is already occurring in these areas due to a moist air mass that has persisted since last week. The disturbance will move northward into the Gulf of Mexico and generate more consistent heavy rainfall, potentially for several days, as it will be moving slowly.

The National Hurricane Center now gives a 60% chance of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days. However, the potential for flooding due to heavy rains will occur even if the disturbance does not develop, so be prepared for excess rainfall into next week. Your local National Weather Service office will have more specific details for your local area as the event nears.

I may have a video update tonight or tomorrow.

Personally I'm not worried about this system wind-wise whether it comes with a name or not.  The biggest concern will be rainfall but who/where remains to be seen.  It'll be a sloppy mess with a continuation of what we've been going through the past week.

Updated WPC map to be taken with a grain of salt until things are fine-tuned.

What a beautiful day today!.....................NOT

It hit 91 degrees here and limited clouds. I actually did enjoy a little bit of time outside this afternoon. I'm beginning to think that this holiday weekend may not be a total washout. Will we get rain? Yep, but I'm thinking it will be sporadic.

New TWO....starting to narrow down the area just a tad




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits.  Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
417 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
242030-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
417 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

...Moderate Risk of Rip Current Atlantic Beaches...
...Thunderstorms Possible Across South Florida Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Atlantic
beaches.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms will be possible over the
Atlantic waters and east coast this morning into the afternoon, then
across the interior and Gulf coast this afternoon and evening. The
main hazards with any storms will be cloud-to-ground lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts will be possible in the coastal and
lake waters adjacent to South Florida today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A tropical disturbance is forecast to lift slowly northward into the
Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend, bringing another
surge of deep tropical moisture to South Florida. Regardless of any
development, numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
possibly return to the forecast for the end of the week, continuing
through the Memorial Day weekend. Heavy rainfall will be possible
during this time, aggravating ongoing flooding concerns. In addition,
gusty winds and locally rough seas, and occasional lightning may
accompany this activity.

The risk of rip currents will remain elevated for the Atlantic
beaches through the Memorial Day weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

RAG

NWS Melbourne........354 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Adequate moisture will continue to generate scattered showers,
with a few embedded afternoon lightning storms mainly inland from
the coast. Brief periods of heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning
strikes, and wind gusts to 30 mph will occur with the strongest
activity.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
The combination of weather and ocean conditions will produce a
Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches of east central
Florida. Always swim within sight of a lifeguard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A tropical disturbance near the Yucatan peninsula will lift slowly
northward into late week and potentially develop into a tropical
or sub-tropical low pressure by Saturday across the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to track northward
Sunday through Memorial Day. Deep tropical moisture will begin to
overspread the area beginning late Friday with locally heavy
rainfall expected for Saturday, Sunday, and into Memorial Day as a
very moist tropical airmass lingers over the area and produces
bands of heavy showers and at times scattered lightning storms
across east central Florida.

The main hazard with this system will be locally heavy rainfall
with the potential for localized flooding. Dangerous cloud to
ground lightning strikes and gusty winds will also be a concern.

Boating conditions are expected to deteriorate heading into the
Memorial Day weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas
with higher shower and lightning storm chances.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

Sedlock

South Florida Water Management District Retweeted

SFWMD Emergency
@SFWMD_EM
SFWMD water managers are closely monitoring this tropical disturbance and preparing the regional flood control to respond as needed in the coming days.

Good Thursday Morning Folks!...well local met is saying about a 50% chance of afternoon showers around Tampa bay..no rain at all here by me this early morning...well Blogs Coffee-Tea-Cocoa will be ready when you get here..grab a cup and relax for a few.....have a wonderful day everyone!!

Morning All,
Well thought I would get a day without any rain....NOT... Was loading the camper last night about 8:30 and boom downpour. Lasted 5 mins and .11 in the bucket.
I am leaving for the outer banks NC Friday morning. I will be back june 3rd. I'm taking the computer and will try to check in with weather from there.
Have a great day!! Be careful of flooding streets if it happens!! Be safe all!!
John Z-hills  

Largo Thanks for the new blog!!!!!!!!!!

severstorm wrote:Morning All,
Well thought I would get a day without any rain....NOT... Was loading the camper last night about 8:30 and boom downpour. Lasted 5 mins and .11 in the bucket.
I am leaving for the outer banks NC Friday morning. I will be back june 3rd. I'm taking the computer and will try to check in with weather from there.
Have a great day!! Be careful of flooding streets if it happens!! Be safe all!!
John Z-hills  

Largo Thanks for the new blog!!!!!!!!!!

good morning John,gee no rain by me yesterday,sunny all day long whew and hot!!...say..you Have a safe trip,...have a great time up there.

one local met thinks we who are right along the gulf coast may see 4-6 inches and those inland may see 3-5 inches of rain from this storm.........for myself i think its all guesswork until we see exactly where the track goes and how close it comes to florida huh..too early yet

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

AMZ555-FLZ054-058-059-064-241500-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Indian River-Okeechobee-
St. Lucie-Martin-
800 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.NOW...

...Showers Developing Across Southern Areas and Adjacent Atlantic...

Isolated showers will develop and move slowly northward this
morning, mainly from Stuart and Fort Pierce to Okeechobee. By late
morning to midday additional showers can be expected as moisture
builds northward into the area from the tropics.

$$

Ulrich

hey, there Might be a second storm that hits US..2nd week of july.....................

Morning blog. No rain for me yesterday. Nice to get a break from it. It’ll be interesting to see what the total iwill be from 90L, and what your totals are.

Two days in a row here of no rainfall. Looks like chances ramp up again this afternoon and tomorrow with a potential washout Saturday and Sunday. Maybe it will clear out by Memorial day so we can at least salvage one day of our holiday weekend.

Morning. Looks like the models are latching onto a consensus with the system going anywhere from the western panhandle to the MS/LA border.

Good luck today on the rain. Looks to favor the west coast. Here's the day 1 QPF map.

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Miami FL
1114 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

AMZ610-FLZ066-067-070-071-241730-
Lake Okeechobee-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-
Including the cities of Clewiston, LaBelle,
Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Pahokee, South Bay,
Belle Glade, Wellington, Lion Country Safari,
South County Regional Park, Immokalee,
Miccosukee Indian Reservation, and Markham Park
1114 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.NOW...
Scattered showers will continue over inland portions of Broward
and Palm Beach Counties through early afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible. This activity will produce brief
periods of moderate rain with occasional lightning strikes
possible over interior portions of South Florida.

$$

Hagen

well almost 12:25pm and suns full out here but there are above me, some thin clouds, no rain at all here so far.

im waiting to see what discussion's on the NWS sites say oh..Saturday morning, they keep saying this wont be a fast moving storm,we may be dealing with this storm for 4-5 days rain wise huh

now IF..this storm does comes closer than what most models are saying today.. we on the gulf coast might.. in those low lying area's..just might see some flooding, these slow moving gulf storms can really be a pain

IF im seeing this right..the Euro model is saying Tampa bay could..see 6-7 inches of rain??..

well radar is saying rain and storms from about Lake O to the keys so far...and so it begins huh

Look at that tongue of real heavy rain storms coming right at my area early sunday morning?

with this particular storm,dont look at where the center is heading, rains way out from center,and with this storm..so far..the big news story will be the Heavy rainfall..quite possibly breaking some records.im already about 2-3 inches over my normal for May

well hopefully there will be breaks inbetween the storms huh

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
155 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

AMZ552-555-FLZ047-053-054-058-059-064-242100-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
155 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.NOW...

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue this afternoon
from southern Brevard southward across the Treasure Coast and into
Okeechobee and Osceola counties. Heavy downpours, lightning
strikes, and brief gusty winds to 30 mph can be expected in the
heavier showers and storms. Farther north, where the airmass is
drier, only isolated showers are expected along the east coast sea
breeze as it moves inland.


$$


$$

again,lets wait till saturday morning and see the tracks then ok.

hort Term Forecast
National Weather Service Miami FL
233 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018

FLZ066-067-069>071-073-075-242130-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Broward County-Hendry-Inland Collier
County-Mainland Monroe-Inland Palm Beach County-Inland Miami-Dade
County-
233 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018

.NOW...
Through 530 PM EDT, scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue to develop over interior sections of
south Florida, and gradually moving west towards the Gulf Coast,
including Naples and vicinity.

Locally heavy downpours may bring reduced visibility and a quick
half inch to one inch of rain. Dangerous lightning strikes will also
be possible.

$$

AR

Good afternoon. Sigh, got a huge tease today. A small thunderstorm popped along the seabreeze. Areas literally one mile to my north and west received 1-2". I didn't get enough to wet the ground.

The system looks to stay well west of the FL peninsula. Based on latest models and track guidance I think on this side of the state it may very well turn out to be a nice holiday weekend with typical scattered storms from time to time. West coast is more in play but if tracks shift west ya'll may have a half-way decent weekend. We shall see!

Here's the latest 18z model guidance. The majority of the tracks are clustered north central Gulf coast.

NHC on the other hand is still leaving the door open for potential development in a fairly wide area. Note the shaded area isn't a cone but a gridded area where development may potentially occur.



Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

I'm feeling more confident that we will not be receiving the copious amounts of rain that were predicted. Hopefully tomorrow is ok.

Levi's first vid of the 2018 season.............