April-May Florida weather and local events etc

Good afternoon. Had .49 here on Monday. Glad to see others cashing in as well.

Safe travels John. Enjoy the youngins!

Dry, dry, dry forecast here. No rain in the forecast with temps 85-90 each day. High pressure is large and in charge.

Looking at the models, seems hot/dry is the theme for about all of Florida through the end of the month. Pattern is locked in with a trough out west, high pressure east, and the central states getting soaked with rain and severe weather between the two.

StAugustineFL wrote:Looking at the models, seems hot/dry is the theme for about all of Florida through the end of the month.  Pattern is locked in with a trough out west, high pressure east, and the central states getting soaked with rain and severe weather between the two.

Hiya Aug, yes HOT is the word thru the next 7 days it seems like..and hardly any chances of rain unless we get an afternoon sea breeze lil shower.

Good Thursday Morning Folks!!....gee yet another Fire story this one up in polk city..3 homes burned yesterday..well weather wise, nothing much going on..have a wonderful day everyone!!

Good Friday morning Folks..no real weather concerns it looks like today..have a great day everyone and a big TGIF!!

florida gulf coast health depts are saying there is a huge increase in Hepatitis A cases..protect yourself and loved ones close to you..wash hands with soap and water after using the bathroom..but you Can catch it by touching anything an infected person has touched,,geez..some counties over here are offering FREE shots of the vaccine,,check YOUR county too ok, mine has the free shots.

OUR DRY SEASON RETURNS whew.......................Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
248 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Weak troughing aloft remains over the region this afternoon as
ridging continues to build to our west. At the surface, high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic Ocean extends over the northern
Florida peninsula. Dry air remains over the region, as noted in water
vapor and in area soundings, and this has kept rain chances at less
than 10 percent area-wide.

For this weekend, the weak mid-level trough is forecast to close off
near the Bahamas and shift eastward as ridging continues to build
from the west. Surface high pressure will continue to extend across
northern Florida, keeping a low-level easterly flow in place across
the region, with the sea breeze forming in the afternoon. Similar to
today, Saturday will feature low rain chances due to the dry air
still in place. Sunday will see an increase in moisture that should
allow a bit more coverage, but still only isolated chances.

During next week, a developing upper level trough over the western
U.S. will help to build strong (592-594DM) downstream upper level
ridging over the southeastern U.S. and Florida. A very dry subsident
air mass under the building ridge will support rain free conditions
with warming temperatures with a light east southeast wind flow
becoming onshore along the coast each afternoon. Temperatures will
run above normal with overnight lows mainly in the 70s, with daytime
highs climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid to upper
90s inland.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
953 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
180200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
953 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEACHES OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of Rip Currents for the beaches
of Palm Beach County, and a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for the
Miami-Dade County and Broward County beaches today.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the inland
areas of Miami-Dade and Mainland Monroe Counties this afternoon.
The primary impacts will be lightning strikes.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day.

An elevated rip current risk will continue through at least this
weekend along the east coast beaches.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Baxter

ok good night everyone..enjoy your weekend!!!

Good afternoon. The warm/hot/dry continues onward. I've seen some Euro maps shared online showing 100+ temps for north Florida/south Georgia over Memorial Day weekend. We shall see about that but it's looking toasty no matter how it's sliced.

Rinse and repeat forecast here.............

Good Saturday Morning Folks!!...Yes Aug..a dry and Hot day again here today and my local forecast is pretty much the same for my area also gee...i sure hope the people in the Mississippi valley area's are heeding the stern warnings for Bad storms and weather that's coming for them out there...well have a wonderful day and weekend everyone..hurricane season is fast approaching..im so glad we kept this Blog alive..we sure may need it in the coming months huh!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
400 AM EDT Sat May 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Broad and relaxed mid level troughing aloft the area slides east to
the Bahamas and starts to organize into a weak low late Sun - as
ridging builds into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Atlantic high
pressure stretches west...along Latitude 30...to the central Gulf
coast.

During this weekend...Today will be dry with model PWAT values of
0.75 inches or less which despite the troughiness aloft will
preclude any rainfall. However on Sun the PWAT creeps up into the
1.0 to 1.5 inch range...supporting some afternoon showers and
storms. Easterly flow continues although shifting to onshore along
the coast in afternoon sea breezes.

For Mon through Fri...The mid level ridge continues to build
northeastward and settles in across the southeast U.S. for the
last half of the week with heights in the 594-596 DM range. The
Atlantic high pressure remains anchored along Latitude 30. Mon
could see some afternoon showers/storms mainly in the south. Then
the building mid level ridge will suppress convection. Easterly to
southeast flow continues but becoming onshore in the afternoons
near the coast. Temperatures will be above normal.

&&

Morning. All this mid-May warm/hot weather and dry conditions should heat up the water temps.

Daughter/grandson are coming over to visit today. That'll be nice. I'm going to pick up some fried chicken from Publix. Haven't had that in quite some time. Yummy.

My back gave out on me several days ago so I've been somewhat struggling to get around. It's slowly feeling better day by day. I've some yard chores to tackle (primary weeding flower beds). I'll do what I can without over-exerting myself to avoid re-tweaking it.

SPC storm reports from yesterday. Easy to see there were 2 primary clusters of tornadic storms as they moved off to the northeast.

StAugustineFL wrote:Morning.  All this mid-May warm/hot weather and dry conditions should heat up the water temps.  

Daughter/grandson are coming over to visit today.  That'll be nice.  I'm going to pick up some fried chicken from Publix.  Haven't had that in quite some time.  Yummy.

My back gave out on me several days ago so I've been somewhat struggling to get around.  It's slowly feeling better day by day.  I've some yard chores to tackle (primary weeding flower beds).  I'll do what I can without over-exerting myself to avoid re-tweaking it.

wow, ive been there-done that with my back..ouch, go easy AUG and dont aggravate it more,,get well over time ok.

well ive got family coming here tomorrow night for a week..guess i'll be on and off for a week..hopefully the weather will stay nice and no storms till they leave...good choice with the Publix fried chicken Aug..they sure make it taste good alright

gee thats one dangerous storm front today up the Mississippi valley all the way up to the great lakes

For Billsfan........This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a High Risk of Rip Currents for the beaches
of Palm Beach County, and a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for the
Miami-Dade County and Broward County beaches.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across portions of South Florida today. The most intense storms
could produce locally gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

An elevated rip current risk could continue at times through the
week along the east coast beaches.

Thunderstorms will be possible each day into early parts of this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Cohen/MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
305 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...

The center of a mid/upper level low is currently positioned just
east of the Peninsula, enhancing dry air and subsidence across
our area as we remain on its western flank. At the surface,
high pressure over Bermuda is providing is resulting in a
persistent southeast flow. The east and west coast sea
breeze will collide later this afternoon near a line from
Bushnell to Arcadia. However, with model PWAT values AOB
1.00 inches across most of the forecast area today,
precipitation is not expected to be widespread although a
few showers/thunderstorms will pop around this boundary
interaction. The greatest chance will be across Southwest FL
where a bit more moisture will be present. It will be hot
once again with highs in the low 90s. Dewpoints in the upper
50s to mid 60s will keep it from feeling too oppressive,
however.

Over the next couple of days, the upper level low will gradually
meander east away from the area and very strong ridging takes its
place through the weekend. This setup will contribute to severe
weather across the Central US, but very benign weather for us in the
Southeast. It will stay very hot and mostly dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 90s across the area each day.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the
possibility of a tropical or subtropical storm developing
south of Bermuda. Regardless of development, this will not
pose a threat to the Southeast coast and will be pulled out
to sea.


&&

Good Sunday Morning folks!!...another Hot and a bit humid today with a slight chance 20% of an afternoon sea breeze shower around here...have a wonderful day everyone!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
321 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...Prolonged period of hot temperatures through Memorial
Day Weekend...

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Upper level low over the Bahamas will continue to slowly
drift east away from the Peninsula on Monday with strong
ridging building in behind it. Some isolated low-topped
showers will be possible during the early afternoon as
daytime heating takes place. With weak easterly low-level
flow, the two sea breeze boundaries are expected to collide
along a line from Inverness to Punta Gorda. A broken line of
showers will likely develop later in the evening once this
collision occurs, with a thunderstorm or two possible across
areas south of I-4. Temperatures will once again be hot,
with around 90 near the coast and low-mid 90s elsewhere.

Moving along into Tue/Wed the previously mentioned U/L low
will be south of Bermuda. Meanwhile, the shortwave
producing severe weather over the Central Plains will eject
north while a second wave digs into the Desert Southwest.
This will create a highly amplified trough-ridge-trough
pattern (Omega Block) with our region under the center of
this hot and dry ridge. Exceptionally warm temperatures and
a lack of precipitation will continue through Memorial Day
Weekend (and beyond). Highs well into 90s with lows in the
70s will be the norm area wide. A few localized inland spots
may flirt with 100 by Saturday into Sunday...


&&

Good Monday Morning folks!!..well soon we will be praying for those afternoon showers to cool things down some outside huh whew..90's-Hot and Dry all week long and maybe beyond too they say..well enjoy....have a wonderful day everyone and I hope those who are sick here..get better soon ok!!

Good Monday morning. I haven't been on in awhile. Nothing to really report here except hot and DRY! The models were hinting at an early start to the rainy season at the beginning of the month, but it hasn't materialized here. I am currently under an inch for May and it is drying out quickly. My yard is turning brown and all the remaining water that was in the woods from the wet Winter and early spring has dried out. The only good part is the low humidity has the morning lows in the low 60's and it feels nice.

Well Summer is just about here and the afternoon storms will start to kick in the next few weeks hopefully. At this point it is tough to say what kind of rainy season we are going to have. Just a few weeks ago I thought we were going to have a really wet summer with flooding issues around the state. Now I am not sure what we are going to get. I am just praying for nothing tropical for the state this year as we have had enough the last 3 years.

waterdipper wrote:Good Monday morning. I haven't been on in awhile. Nothing to really report here except hot and DRY! The models were hinting at an early start to the rainy season at the beginning of the month, but it hasn't materialized here. I am currently under an inch for May and it is drying out quickly. My yard is turning brown and all the remaining water that was in the woods from the wet Winter and early spring has dried out. The only good part is the low humidity has the morning lows in the low 60's and it feels nice.

Well Summer is just about here and the afternoon storms will start to kick in the next few weeks hopefully. At this point it is tough to say what kind of rainy season we are going to have. Just a few weeks ago I thought we were going to have a really wet summer with flooding issues around the state. Now I am not sure what we are going to get. I am just praying for nothing tropical for the state this year as we have had enough the last 3 years.

Hiya WD, yes alot of uncertainty about the coming storm season too but..i'd be very grateful for one of those weak Tropical storms to sit over me for a few days ..gimme those rains and to also wash away all this horrible pollen thats terrible here this year...well have a great day WD up there.

Good afternoon.

My eyes today are on the TX panhandle area and much of OK. High risk of severe, monster sized hail, violent tornado's..........seems it may just be getting started. Hope nothing hits a populated area because it's not looking pretty.

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.

My eyes today are on the TX panhandle area and much of OK.  High risk of severe, monster sized hail, violent tornado's..........seems it may just be getting started.  Hope nothing hits a populated area because it's not looking pretty.

Hiya Aug, hope your feeling better!!...oh yes, mets on the TV news were warning some hailstones inside that horrible storm could get..get this...hailstones could get to the size of grapefruits!!! OMG..i never want to see hail that size ever!!..what damage Those could cause huh

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
335 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

...Hot temperatures continue through Memorial Day...

.DISCUSSION (Today through Memorial Day)...
Subtropical Storm Andrea became the first named system of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season yesterday evening and is
currently located southwest of Bermuda. This system is
affiliated with the upper level low north of the Bahamas
which we have been discussing the last few days and is
therefore not fully tropical in nature. Andrea will slowly
drift off to the east through midweek and will not pose any
threat to the United States.

Back at home, mean low-level flow of out of the southeast
at 5-7 knots will allow for a similar sea breeze collision
as we saw Monday. However, drier air aloft associated with
the building ridge will keep rain chances relatively low.
The exception will be across Southwest FL where a chance of
afternoon showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, remains
possible. However, a shower or two cannot be ruled out
farther north where the boundaries eventually interact. High
temperatures will once again run into the mid 90s inland
and around 90 closer to the coast, with lows in the 70s.

Moving along into Wednesday, the previously mentioned U/L
low will be south of Bermuda. Meanwhile, the shortwave
producing severe weather last night and this morning over
the Southern/Central Plains will eject north while a second
wave digs into the Desert Southwest. This will create a
highly amplified trough-ridge-trough pattern (known as a
Omega Block) with our region under the center of this hot
and dry ridge. Exceptionally warm temperatures and a lack of
precipitation will continue through Memorial Day. Highs
well into 90s with lows in the 70s will be the norm area
wide. A few localized inland spots may flirt with 100 during
the long weekend so folks planning to enjoy the outdoors
should take appropriate steps in order to avoid heat related
illnesses.


&&

Good Tuesday Morning folks!!..well another HOT and DRY day ahead for most of us once again..although a stray shower is always possible huh...90s today ugh..way too early for this...well have a great day everyone!!

This mornings GFS run is saying NO RAIN here until May 31st oh no...sprinklers on for sure today

wow we went to see John Wick 3..man what an action filled movie That was!!!!! if you like Action filled movies..THIS one is for you then!!

well coming back from the Movies..i got about 6 drops of rain on the windshield..we just might..get a sea breeze shower sometime today after all

Good afternoon. Glad you enjoyed the movie Largo. I've not seen it (nor many movies on the whole until I can view from the couch, lol), but heard it was the #1 movie last week.

Who's ready for a pattern change?

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.  Glad you enjoyed the movie Largo.  I've not seen it (nor many movies on the whole until I can view from the couch, lol), but heard it was the #1 movie last week.

Who's ready for a pattern change?

thanks Aug yes it was a great movie..havent went out to the movies in many years lol..they even have great reclining chairs/seats there lol..hope you get to the point where your feeling better soon Aug..been there done that several times in my life..ouch is all i remember lol

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
348 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION (Today - Tuesday)...
A deep-layered ridge north of Florida will gradually sink
south into Florida over the next several days. This feature
will control our weather right through Tuesday, and possibly
for several days beyond.

What this means for us is more of the same...lots of
sunshine and very warm to hot conditions.

Today may be the last day that we could potentially squeeze
out a few showers during the late afternoon or evening
hours. There could be enough moisture between the surface
and 10,000 feet for some low topped convection, especially
along the west coast sea breeze boundary this evening. The
overall rain chances will be less than 20 percent so will
not include in the forecast at this time.

Drier air moves in after today resulting in a hostile
atmosphere for shower development for the next several days.
The earliest we may see moisture return is Sunday as the
low-level ridge begins to shift into the Atlantic allowing
southeasterly flow to bring some moisture back our way.
Still, with such strong ridging aloft, it`s unlikely we`ll
see any significant shower activity through the beginning of
next week.

With the surface high center to our north through Saturday,
we`ll see easterly surges move across the state during the
late afternoon and evening hours. Any sea breeze that
develops during the afternoon hours will be quickly
displaced into the Gulf.

Temperatures will average at least 5 degrees above normal
through the forecast period. There will be some relief from
the heat along the immediate coast with the sea breeze each
day, especially Sunday through Tuesday as the ridge begins
to relax its hold on the region.

&&

Good Wednesday Morning Folks !!! well the HOT and Dry conditions continue here whew and temps still above normal..have a wonderful day everyone!!

for those with outdoor Memorial day events..looks like this dry hot pattern continues.......................................................

1st week of June could....get very interesting for us...coming up into the gulf.. for a visit from the Tropics? we'll see in the coming days IF,,this verifies

yes IF this were to verify..this tropical something would be going right over southern Florida...............................................

ok regular GFS puts the storm into panhandle and north Florida area's..............................................................................

so right now Both GFS models put a Gulf Tropical something into then crossing Florida into the atlantic..one into north FLA the other into South FLA..good thing we still have many days for this to go poof huh

although I personally think the rains from this storm would be most welcomed here in my area

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.

My eyes today are on the TX panhandle area and much of OK.  High risk of severe, monster sized hail, violent tornado's..........seems it may just be getting started.  Hope nothing hits a populated area because it's not looking pretty.

Looks like forecasts were a little off on severity, but they nailed the flash flood threats and location.

Need rain, grass not happy

I'm ready for the pattern change, Aug. Hot, hot, and more hot!

I'll be up your way this weekend. Maybe we can sync up. I'm showing a high of 100 for Jax on Monday. Yuk!

StPeteFLwx wrote:

StAugustineFL wrote:Good afternoon.

My eyes today are on the TX panhandle area and much of OK.  High risk of severe, monster sized hail, violent tornado's..........seems it may just be getting started.  Hope nothing hits a populated area because it's not looking pretty.

Looks like forecasts were a little off on severity, but they nailed the flash flood threats and location.

Need rain, grass not happy

Yeah, I wouldn't call it a bust as there were plenty of severe weather reports. A bit below what I was expecting considering the threat. That's a good thing.

Moderate risk today impacting many of my family/friends from NE OK to Central MO. PDS nader watch currently in effect for OK. A nerve-racking evening in store.