Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Page 2 of 2 Previous  1, 2

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by emcf30 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:31 pm

Well despite tradewinds that were supposed to be ripping Ernesto apart, and the many experts stating this storm is overrated, he sure is flexing his muscles this evening.



Heavy blow up of convection over the COC.

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 973
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by emcf30 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:34 pm

A special thanks for Aug for running his famous long range model.

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 973
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:42 pm

Thanks E. Clearly it's a significant contribution to the site, lol
avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 486
Reputation : 16
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by StAugustineFL on Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:00 pm

Not sure if it's a temporary burst and will sustain but Ernesto's looking good. Seems my recent experience with storms in this area of the world (ECARB) struggle.

avatar
StAugustineFL

Posts : 486
Reputation : 16
Join date : 2012-07-17

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by emcf30 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:11 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Not sure if it's a temporary burst and will sustain but Ernesto's looking good. Seems my recent experience with storms in this area of the world (ECARB) struggle.


He is definitely defying the odds of Climatological data for sure Aug. It has amazed me this afternoon on the burst of convection and better organization of Ernesto. We shall see if this trend goes on through the night. If so, we will have a beast on out hands.

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 973
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by emcf30 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:28 pm

Outer bands of Ernesto affecting PR

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 973
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by Seawall on Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:13 pm

Can't believe how this storm is looking. Definitely could be a show stopper!
avatar
Seawall

Posts : 125
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by sangria on Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:15 pm

Ernesto.......convection firing out on his western side....

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1108
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by emcf30 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:56 pm

Tropical Depression 6 is Born

invest_RENUMBER_al902012_al062012.ren

AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M,\

avatar
emcf30

Posts : 973
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 86

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by sangria on Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:03 pm

That has the potential to be a very bad storm......maybe, if the Bermuda High moves back east, it will allow it to recurve on the eastern side of the US...
avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1108
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by sangria on Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:08 pm

Ernesto.....

avatar
sangria
Admin

Posts : 1108
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by Seawall on Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:13 pm

What would be the times for the D-Max cycle for Ernesto?
avatar
Seawall

Posts : 125
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by Seawall on Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:05 pm

The 11 PM Forecast Cone from the NHC.
avatar
Seawall

Posts : 125
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by Seawall on Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:17 pm

11:00 PM Forecast Discussion for Ernesto

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive


000
WTNT45 KNHC 040238
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT
THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
avatar
Seawall

Posts : 125
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by Seawall on Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:22 pm

TD SIX Forecast Discussion 11:00

Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive


000
WTNT41 KNHC 040242
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

avatar
Seawall

Posts : 125
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2012-07-16

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by scouter534 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:18 am

avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 55
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by scouter534 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:19 am

avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 55
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by scouter534 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:24 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT
0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT
VALUE.

THE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.9N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.5N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.7N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 55
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by scouter534 on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:24 am

avatar
scouter534

Posts : 128
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2012-07-16
Age : 55
Location : Pompano Beach, FL

Back to top Go down

Re: Ernesto - 90L - Severe Weather Threat

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 2 Previous  1, 2

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum