Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

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Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:50 am




Late next week a very powerful Arctic cold front will blast through the eastern US bringing the coldest temps of the season to the
eastern half of the country! This will be caused by the same deep area of low pressure we have been talking about for the past week or so that will develop in the South and move to the Northeast and rapidly deepen. Due to how deep the low will become, it will allow for a VERY strong cold advection fetch from the Great lakes region.









One important thing to note is the ridging taking place over the Western half of the Country. This along with the blocking pattern setting up in the for North will allow for this to occur.

Heavy lake effect snow bands will overtake spots around the great lakes that are accustom to lake effect events and the
Appalchian mountains will experience a notable upslope event with snow squalls even into the lower elevations. One could also expect accumulations West of the mountains Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and even in North Georgia due to how cold this air mass is predicted to be.



Snow predictions at the moment.



This mess will start during the start of the Holiday Travel Season.


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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:52 am

Don't know why the blog is messing up my sentences
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Sun Dec 16, 2012 7:46 am

Thanks e !!!

Looks like it could be a doozy!! There will be a lot of kids, happy to see this event, even if their parents don't have the same level of excitement!!

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Dec 16, 2012 8:58 am

Let it snow, let is snow, let it snow. Looks like my folks in IA will be in for a potentially healthy dose of the white stuff.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 2:36 pm

Super favorable pattern coming. I expect a sustained cold pattern from the last half of Dec until at least the first couple of weeks of January. Below normal temp wise and the storm around the Christmas time frame will more than likely have all these favorable conditions to work with. There should be be a significant snowstorm along the Eastern US. That being said, there will be the occasional and normal pre frontal warming before each cold front as the pattern reloads. These -AO induced blocking regimes usually last for a good month or two cold.

The Euro and its ensembles continue to be very consistent with the STRONG blocking in the Pacific with EPO and PNA ridging and a massive NAO/AO blocking anomaly.



Perfect for good ole Southern and Eastern snowstorms.

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Dec 16, 2012 2:51 pm

It's looking good E-man.

hail
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:19 am

The good ole trusted Euro STILL is showing the post Christmas snow storm in the South.

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:44 am

Here is the severe side of the beginning of the trio of storms to move across the country. Then the cold and snowy side cometh




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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:45 am

Damnit, can't resize the images with the new photobucket
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:22 am

Here are some Winter Tibits for the upcoming change in the weather pattern.

The anticipated but slow transition to sustained colder weather in eastern North America is currently underway. I suspect when one looks back, the storm that brought daily record snowfall to Minneapolis-St. Paul on December 9-10, 2012 marked the very beginning of a slow, back-and-forth transition. Even as this week’s events, excepting northernmost New England and parts of Quebec will likely see little frozen precipitation, they will mark the end game of the transition. By 12/20 +/- a day, the transition will likely be complete. The remainder of the month will generally be colder than normal in the eastern half of North America.

With a more active subtropical jet, there will be a risk of storminess. With the cold getting established, opportunities for snowfall in the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic States, New England, and southern Ontario and southern Quebec will increase. There could be a possibility of a moderate or even significant snowfall in part of that region.

Some guidance has even hinted at a brief outbreak of severe cold. For example, the 12/15 0z run of the GFS showed a low temperature of 3°F in New York City for 12/29. That would be the first December single-digit reading there since December 27, 1989. The 6z run showed a temperature as low as -32°C (-26°F) in Ottawa.

Given the generally positive EPO, I don’t believe such an outbreak is likely this month (and the 12z GFS backed off on the extreme cold). One cannot rule out a day or two with low temperatures in the teens from Philadelphia into New England and a low temperature of -20°C to -15°C in Ottawa.

As the month ends, blocking is more likely than not to persist. Some ensemble members are hinting that the PNA, which has now been negative for 40 consecutive days, will go positive toward the end of December. That might set the stage for a bout of more significant cold in early January, but that’s still too far out for one to have much confidence.

There are a couple of factors that support that this change in underway. The AO has now been negative for 22 consecutive days. It is likely to remain predominantly negative for the remainder of the month as per the ensemble guidance and also historic cases. The long-range guidance has been anything like last winter. In fact, the latest CFSv2 guidance has trended toward widespread cold to begin January and a generally cold month across much of North America. With the PNA having been negative for 41 consecutive days, both historic cases and some ensemble members suggest that it could go positive near or during January. Once that happens, the dam that has kept some of the coldest air bottled up in Alaska and westward could break and a genuine prospect of at least an outbreak of severe cold could develop.



The MJO is forecast to move into Phase 1 by late December. The composite anomalies are cold across much of the nation when that happens in December .



The GFS ensembles continues to show widespread cool anomalies. This is what you would expect when the MJO forecast to verify to Phase 1




Some guidance is also hinting that the EPO could go negative in the extended range. That could bolster prospects for the development of a cold pattern.

Finally, with the SOI remaining strongly negative, there remains a growing prospect that the development of the cold pattern could coincide with an increasingly active subtropical jet. If so, prospects for snow could increase during the closing 10 days of December.

And here goes the AO dropping like a rock again



Credit to Sutherland/ RaleighWx’s model page / and my brain.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:24 am

Hmmmm. Sub 999mb low to start then it will greatly deepen on its way to the East and North

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by Swiss Miss on Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:05 am

Thanks E.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:44 am

LOL e......we LIKE your brain!!! Thanks for the all of the info.....

Credit to Sutherland/ RaleighWx’s model page / and my brain.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:52 am



ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171649Z - 171845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SERN AL...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SOON INTO SWRN
GA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...NOW INTO SRN GA AND FAR SRN SC ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A FEW POCKETS OF HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION THROUGH AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG CHARACTERIZED BY LONG HODOGRAPHS
AND WILL FAVOR BOTH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND ENHANCED WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUS FAR...OUTFLOW HAS BEEN PROPAGATING IN AN EWD
DIRECTION...SLIGHTLY OUTPACING STORM CORES. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT ON THE EXISTING
CONVECTION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS/INFLECTIONS IN THE LINE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST FAVORABLE
CORRIDOR WILL BE NEAR THE SQUALL LINE/STNRY FRONT INTERSECTION WHERE
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH
CELLS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:32 pm

Nicely done E-man. I'm looking forward to the show. In the short-term, this from the Davenport, IA NWS.

ALL THIS SAID...OUR FORECAST REMAINS STABLE...FORECASTING AN ONSET OF
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT TO MOLINE...TO FREEPORT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SNOW TO THE WEST. AFTER 06Z...A RAPID TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THIS IS BLENDING
THE EC AND GFS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND BELOW. DEFORMATION ZONE
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY QUITE HEAVY...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 6 AM THURSDAY
IN ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE FAR WEST. SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30/GUST 40-45
WILL CREATE A BLOWING SNOW ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS ALONE IS
A HEADLINE WORTHY THREAT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT NOT AS TO LIGHT VS HEAVY...BUT HOW MUCH HEAVY SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...A BROAD 4-8 INCH SNOW IS LIKELY...AND COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IOWA
WHERE IT MAY BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO
12 CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ITS LOCATION IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:49 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Nicely done E-man. I'm looking forward to the show. In the short-term, this from the Davenport, IA NWS.

ALL THIS SAID...OUR FORECAST REMAINS STABLE...FORECASTING AN ONSET OF
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT TO MOLINE...TO FREEPORT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SNOW TO THE WEST. AFTER 06Z...A RAPID TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THIS IS BLENDING
THE EC AND GFS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND BELOW. DEFORMATION ZONE
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY QUITE HEAVY...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 6 AM THURSDAY
IN ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE FAR WEST. SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30/GUST 40-45
WILL CREATE A BLOWING SNOW ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS ALONE IS
A HEADLINE WORTHY THREAT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT NOT AS TO LIGHT VS HEAVY...BUT HOW MUCH HEAVY SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...A BROAD 4-8 INCH SNOW IS LIKELY...AND COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IOWA
WHERE IT MAY BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO
12 CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ITS LOCATION IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

Fun Stuff
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:52 pm

Well, the GFS is finally on board with the Euro. LOL. Huge ridge building into Alaska with a nice ridge building in just east of Greenland.

That tittie looking thing is cold air pouring into the Eastern 3rd of the country.



Once again
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:50 pm

Time to fire up the furnace's!

I'll let the tittie thing slide E. We shall remain focused on weather!


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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:51 pm

double post
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:05 pm

MODEL WATCH 2012

Yikes !!

EURO and GFS





Fun times ahead for winter weather weenies for sure.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:17 am

Florida, even with the above normal temps, is sounding better and better!!!

solo
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:29 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:32 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:33 pm

I thought I would just post random images for the hell of it. Of course weather related



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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:34 pm

.. A large winter storm may impact Oklahoma and western North Texas sometime around Christmas night...

A rapidly evolving upper storm system will move into The Rockies
early next week near Christmas eve. The storm then appears it
will move across portions of Kansas... Oklahoma... and Texas late
Christmas night through Wednesday. Snowfall will accompany this
storm system. Although it is still too early to determine exact
snowfall amounts and the precise timing of the system... some
locations could experience white out or blizzard conditions.
Travel may become treacherous late Christmas night and the day
after Christmas... especially across portions of Oklahoma. Be
prepared to have your travel arrangements cancelled or changed
for the upcoming Holiday. Monitor the latest updates from the
National Weather Service as more accurate information becomes
available later this week.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:35 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:41 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:42 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:42 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:43 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:43 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:44 pm







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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:37 am

This would be something else if this were to happen.

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:27 pm

NWS Pages, regarding the current event....

Omaha video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing[/url]


Kansas City video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/[/url]


Des Moines (no video) Winter weather monitor page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=winter_monitor


Topeka Winter weather page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=dss_main
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:12 pm

sangria wrote:NWS Pages, regarding the current event....

Omaha video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing[/url]


Kansas City video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/[/url]


Des Moines (no video) Winter weather monitor page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=winter_monitor


Topeka Winter weather page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=dss_main

LOL.



The other links worked good. Thanks for sharing
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:22 pm

WTH !!!! Gonna try that Omaha link again....they updated this evening...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:41 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 6:32 am

After weeks of the GFS and the EMCWF battling it out we finally have some agreement from the GFS ensembles and the Euro ensembles.Teleconnections are coming together. The the 0z runs from both showing the pattern that all the signs have been pointing to all along. . Both models are building an Aleutian low with ridging over Alaska to the pole. Both establish cross polar flow and dislodge the cold that has been building up in Alaska. They both continue to show a strong -ao and a modest west based -nao. This is really a big change from the pattern that was in place last year.

EURO



GFS

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 6:34 am

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by gomexwx on Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:22 am

cold is heading our way along with severe weather

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:25 pm

Loving the consistency of the Euro on the snow fall

Owly Images
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:29 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:43 pm

As I was saying last night the issue with the indecision between the GFS it seems like now a thing of the past. My thinking is for the 500mb low to close off west of the Mississippi River or very close to it and then track through TN and up close to the KY/WV border before the surface low transfers to the coast. This scenario would bring heavy snow to the Nashville Metro area and points to the West, beginning in Louisiana and developing and moving to the Northeast. Areas East of Central Tennessee to the East will see the least amount of snow due to the dry slot and warm air advection that would be associated with the developing low. As the low wraps the deformation bands producing heavy snow will be focused to the West of the Low rapidly developing in Tennessee..One IMPORTANT thing to remember is the eventual track of the Low. If it moves more East, The Dry slot will be more East putting Eastern Tennessee into the heavy snow bands.

What ever does or does not happen, any of the model scenarios that ultimately play out, will definitely help with enhancing any energy that may come through around New Years. With most pattern changes it can be a step down process.




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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:17 pm

I know these runs will not continue this but, this would be Crazy times ahead






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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:38 pm

gomexwx wrote:cold is heading our way along with severe weather

True that Gomey!!!!!!

The Euro further reveals a pretty impressive jet configuration in the upper levels and mid levels...

At H2 (200 mb), you'll notice that Central AL is in the area of the left front quad of the incoming jet streak rounding the bottom of the trough, and the right rear quadrant of the departing jet streak, this is a highly favorable setup in the upper levels.



At, H3, you'll notice the jet streak is punching right into the warm sector from the WSW across MS and AL, once again a very favorable positioning.



And, at H5 you'll notice impressive mid level diffluence (splitting of the isobars) as the trough is slightly negative tilted and the vort max is trying to push it more negatively tilted, and also with a SW component, you'll already see the veering with height going on here, with WSW or even westerly in the upper levels and SW at H5. The H85 is from the SSW and the sfc winds are due south/possibly slightly backed...so plenty of directional shear in this verbatim.



This Euro setup would have a lot of potential should the thermodynamics come together. Impressive by 120, got a 990 mb low in East Central TN. Very potent upper low.

Latest AFD's from around the Gulf States...

BMX

THIS COULD HELP TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT THE HIGH THETA E AIR FROM
ADVECTING NORTHWARD.BOTH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY
AND ADVECTING IN HIGH THETA E AIR. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN RATHER SCATTERED BUT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NEAR THE MEAN OF THESE POSSIBLE OUTCOME. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH
THE SURFACE WITH ANY STRONG UPDRAFT THAT DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW BUT IS INCREASING WITH BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CHRISTMAS
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ENDING OUR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.


MOB

SINCE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN...IT WILL NOT BE
PROPERLY SAMPLED BY OUR UPPER AIR NETWORK UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE TRACK OF
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT OF THE ECMWF/GFS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND URGE EVERYBODY TO STAY
TUNED TO FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. REGARDLESS OF THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK
WET...ESPECIALLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYS TO
OUR NORTH...IT WILL BE MILD AND HUMID AS WELL.


TLH:

After
that, the ECMWF and GFS both show a strong wave digging from the
Pacific Northwest to the southern Plains Monday into Tuesday, with
subsequent rapid cyclogenesis over the Mid South Tuesday Night and
a cold front passage by 12z Wednesday. However, as we mentioned,
about half the ensemble members show a number of different
scenarios, including a weak low along the Gulf coast (the CMC and
UKMET support this). It should be noted that if the 21.00z
operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are close to correct, there
would be a favorable setup for some severe thunderstorms Tuesday
and Tuesday Night - something to keep an eye on for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --


FFC

AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD CONSENSUS NOW WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR.
THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SEVERE THREAT IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. IT MAY BE A TIMING ISSUE...AS RIGHT NOW THE SYSTEM HAS THE
MOST INFLUENCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JAX

CHRISTMAS DAY/WED...NEXT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GOMEX AND TRACK INTO THE SERN U.S. AND THIS WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SLIGHTLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS TRAILING FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL THIS WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NE FL AS SKIES
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. IF LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE SERN U.S. THERE COULD BE
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY AS 850 MB WINDS PUSH UPWARDS
CLOSER TO 40 KNOTS OR SO.


JAN

THERE ARE SOME COMPLEXITIES IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON
MONDAY DUE TO UPPER S/WV AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
MENTION OF THIS RISK AND IT SEEMS WARRANTED TO HOLD. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLVING WEATHER SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN AGREEMENT
FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
STILL EXISTS. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWING MORE OF A CONSENSUS TREND IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL
DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO GREATER SNOW
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:43 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-222015-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 /205 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK PRODUCING LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING THE
RAIN TO SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE... SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:46 pm

Well, we know where the SPC thinks its going to track. LOL



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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by gomexwx on Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:22 am

I will blame E for any bad or cold weather as he was first to blog about it...LOL
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:42 am

gomexwx wrote:I will blame E for any bad or cold weather as he was first to blog about it...LOL

Don't blame me, I will be the Asshole that was wrong first, that's all. We have been talking about this for a month and a half now. I glad at least every thing looks to be coming together so I don't look like a complete fool. LOL
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:58 pm

This analysis is spot on, I believe...



I Just dont buy the crazy things the operational Euro/GFS are doing. I beleive a major nor'easter will affect most of the eastern US but im not buying the low riding up the TN valley and then magically transferring to the east coast..lol that is preposterous and very unlikely IMO!!

I do believe when the energy for this system gets sampled off the west coast by the balloon network that you will see the secondary low completely disappear as a more gradual phase takes place! I see no scientific reason that this wont be a classic Nor'easter via Miller A cyclogenesis. Could I be wrong? Totally could be.. but sensible synoptics and climatology will argue for the track I have below. Even if my forecast dont verify its still going to be a major storm system for some portion of TN.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

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