Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

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Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:50 am




Late next week a very powerful Arctic cold front will blast through the eastern US bringing the coldest temps of the season to the
eastern half of the country! This will be caused by the same deep area of low pressure we have been talking about for the past week or so that will develop in the South and move to the Northeast and rapidly deepen. Due to how deep the low will become, it will allow for a VERY strong cold advection fetch from the Great lakes region.









One important thing to note is the ridging taking place over the Western half of the Country. This along with the blocking pattern setting up in the for North will allow for this to occur.

Heavy lake effect snow bands will overtake spots around the great lakes that are accustom to lake effect events and the
Appalchian mountains will experience a notable upslope event with snow squalls even into the lower elevations. One could also expect accumulations West of the mountains Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and even in North Georgia due to how cold this air mass is predicted to be.



Snow predictions at the moment.



This mess will start during the start of the Holiday Travel Season.


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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:52 am

Don't know why the blog is messing up my sentences
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Sun Dec 16, 2012 7:46 am

Thanks e !!!

Looks like it could be a doozy!! There will be a lot of kids, happy to see this event, even if their parents don't have the same level of excitement!!

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Dec 16, 2012 8:58 am

Let it snow, let is snow, let it snow. Looks like my folks in IA will be in for a potentially healthy dose of the white stuff.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 2:36 pm

Super favorable pattern coming. I expect a sustained cold pattern from the last half of Dec until at least the first couple of weeks of January. Below normal temp wise and the storm around the Christmas time frame will more than likely have all these favorable conditions to work with. There should be be a significant snowstorm along the Eastern US. That being said, there will be the occasional and normal pre frontal warming before each cold front as the pattern reloads. These -AO induced blocking regimes usually last for a good month or two cold.

The Euro and its ensembles continue to be very consistent with the STRONG blocking in the Pacific with EPO and PNA ridging and a massive NAO/AO blocking anomaly.



Perfect for good ole Southern and Eastern snowstorms.

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Sun Dec 16, 2012 2:51 pm

It's looking good E-man.

hail
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:19 am

The good ole trusted Euro STILL is showing the post Christmas snow storm in the South.

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:44 am

Here is the severe side of the beginning of the trio of storms to move across the country. Then the cold and snowy side cometh




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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:45 am

Damnit, can't resize the images with the new photobucket
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:22 am

Here are some Winter Tibits for the upcoming change in the weather pattern.

The anticipated but slow transition to sustained colder weather in eastern North America is currently underway. I suspect when one looks back, the storm that brought daily record snowfall to Minneapolis-St. Paul on December 9-10, 2012 marked the very beginning of a slow, back-and-forth transition. Even as this week’s events, excepting northernmost New England and parts of Quebec will likely see little frozen precipitation, they will mark the end game of the transition. By 12/20 +/- a day, the transition will likely be complete. The remainder of the month will generally be colder than normal in the eastern half of North America.

With a more active subtropical jet, there will be a risk of storminess. With the cold getting established, opportunities for snowfall in the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic States, New England, and southern Ontario and southern Quebec will increase. There could be a possibility of a moderate or even significant snowfall in part of that region.

Some guidance has even hinted at a brief outbreak of severe cold. For example, the 12/15 0z run of the GFS showed a low temperature of 3°F in New York City for 12/29. That would be the first December single-digit reading there since December 27, 1989. The 6z run showed a temperature as low as -32°C (-26°F) in Ottawa.

Given the generally positive EPO, I don’t believe such an outbreak is likely this month (and the 12z GFS backed off on the extreme cold). One cannot rule out a day or two with low temperatures in the teens from Philadelphia into New England and a low temperature of -20°C to -15°C in Ottawa.

As the month ends, blocking is more likely than not to persist. Some ensemble members are hinting that the PNA, which has now been negative for 40 consecutive days, will go positive toward the end of December. That might set the stage for a bout of more significant cold in early January, but that’s still too far out for one to have much confidence.

There are a couple of factors that support that this change in underway. The AO has now been negative for 22 consecutive days. It is likely to remain predominantly negative for the remainder of the month as per the ensemble guidance and also historic cases. The long-range guidance has been anything like last winter. In fact, the latest CFSv2 guidance has trended toward widespread cold to begin January and a generally cold month across much of North America. With the PNA having been negative for 41 consecutive days, both historic cases and some ensemble members suggest that it could go positive near or during January. Once that happens, the dam that has kept some of the coldest air bottled up in Alaska and westward could break and a genuine prospect of at least an outbreak of severe cold could develop.



The MJO is forecast to move into Phase 1 by late December. The composite anomalies are cold across much of the nation when that happens in December .



The GFS ensembles continues to show widespread cool anomalies. This is what you would expect when the MJO forecast to verify to Phase 1




Some guidance is also hinting that the EPO could go negative in the extended range. That could bolster prospects for the development of a cold pattern.

Finally, with the SOI remaining strongly negative, there remains a growing prospect that the development of the cold pattern could coincide with an increasingly active subtropical jet. If so, prospects for snow could increase during the closing 10 days of December.

And here goes the AO dropping like a rock again



Credit to Sutherland/ RaleighWx’s model page / and my brain.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:24 am

Hmmmm. Sub 999mb low to start then it will greatly deepen on its way to the East and North

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by Swiss Miss on Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:05 am

Thanks E.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:44 am

LOL e......we LIKE your brain!!! Thanks for the all of the info.....

Credit to Sutherland/ RaleighWx’s model page / and my brain.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:52 am



ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171649Z - 171845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SERN AL...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SOON INTO SWRN
GA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...NOW INTO SRN GA AND FAR SRN SC ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A FEW POCKETS OF HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION THROUGH AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG CHARACTERIZED BY LONG HODOGRAPHS
AND WILL FAVOR BOTH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND ENHANCED WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. THUS FAR...OUTFLOW HAS BEEN PROPAGATING IN AN EWD
DIRECTION...SLIGHTLY OUTPACING STORM CORES. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT ON THE EXISTING
CONVECTION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS/INFLECTIONS IN THE LINE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST FAVORABLE
CORRIDOR WILL BE NEAR THE SQUALL LINE/STNRY FRONT INTERSECTION WHERE
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH
CELLS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:32 pm

Nicely done E-man. I'm looking forward to the show. In the short-term, this from the Davenport, IA NWS.

ALL THIS SAID...OUR FORECAST REMAINS STABLE...FORECASTING AN ONSET OF
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT TO MOLINE...TO FREEPORT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SNOW TO THE WEST. AFTER 06Z...A RAPID TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THIS IS BLENDING
THE EC AND GFS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND BELOW. DEFORMATION ZONE
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY QUITE HEAVY...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 6 AM THURSDAY
IN ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE FAR WEST. SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30/GUST 40-45
WILL CREATE A BLOWING SNOW ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS ALONE IS
A HEADLINE WORTHY THREAT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT NOT AS TO LIGHT VS HEAVY...BUT HOW MUCH HEAVY SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...A BROAD 4-8 INCH SNOW IS LIKELY...AND COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IOWA
WHERE IT MAY BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO
12 CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ITS LOCATION IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:49 pm

StAugustineFL wrote:Nicely done E-man. I'm looking forward to the show. In the short-term, this from the Davenport, IA NWS.

ALL THIS SAID...OUR FORECAST REMAINS STABLE...FORECASTING AN ONSET OF
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT TO MOLINE...TO FREEPORT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH SNOW TO THE WEST. AFTER 06Z...A RAPID TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THIS IS BLENDING
THE EC AND GFS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND BELOW. DEFORMATION ZONE
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY QUITE HEAVY...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 6 AM THURSDAY
IN ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE FAR WEST. SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30/GUST 40-45
WILL CREATE A BLOWING SNOW ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS ALONE IS
A HEADLINE WORTHY THREAT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT NOT AS TO LIGHT VS HEAVY...BUT HOW MUCH HEAVY SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...A BROAD 4-8 INCH SNOW IS LIKELY...AND COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IOWA
WHERE IT MAY BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO
12 CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ITS LOCATION IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

Fun Stuff
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:52 pm

Well, the GFS is finally on board with the Euro. LOL. Huge ridge building into Alaska with a nice ridge building in just east of Greenland.

That tittie looking thing is cold air pouring into the Eastern 3rd of the country.



Once again
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:50 pm

Time to fire up the furnace's!

I'll let the tittie thing slide E. We shall remain focused on weather!


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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by StAugustineFL on Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:51 pm

double post
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:05 pm

MODEL WATCH 2012

Yikes !!

EURO and GFS





Fun times ahead for winter weather weenies for sure.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:17 am

Florida, even with the above normal temps, is sounding better and better!!!

solo
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:29 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:32 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:33 pm

I thought I would just post random images for the hell of it. Of course weather related



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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:34 pm

.. A large winter storm may impact Oklahoma and western North Texas sometime around Christmas night...

A rapidly evolving upper storm system will move into The Rockies
early next week near Christmas eve. The storm then appears it
will move across portions of Kansas... Oklahoma... and Texas late
Christmas night through Wednesday. Snowfall will accompany this
storm system. Although it is still too early to determine exact
snowfall amounts and the precise timing of the system... some
locations could experience white out or blizzard conditions.
Travel may become treacherous late Christmas night and the day
after Christmas... especially across portions of Oklahoma. Be
prepared to have your travel arrangements cancelled or changed
for the upcoming Holiday. Monitor the latest updates from the
National Weather Service as more accurate information becomes
available later this week.
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:35 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:41 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:42 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:42 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:43 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:43 pm

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:44 pm







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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:37 am

This would be something else if this were to happen.

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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:27 pm

NWS Pages, regarding the current event....

Omaha video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing[/url]


Kansas City video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/[/url]


Des Moines (no video) Winter weather monitor page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=winter_monitor


Topeka Winter weather page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=dss_main
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:12 pm

sangria wrote:NWS Pages, regarding the current event....

Omaha video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing[/url]


Kansas City video briefing... [url= http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/] http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/[/url]


Des Moines (no video) Winter weather monitor page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=winter_monitor


Topeka Winter weather page.... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=dss_main

LOL.



The other links worked good. Thanks for sharing
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by sangria on Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:22 pm

WTH !!!! Gonna try that Omaha link again....they updated this evening...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=webbriefing
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Re: Time is finally nearing, Countdown to the first real Artic Front and Snow Event

Post by emcf30 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:41 pm